WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, June 20, 2026; WEATHER HAZARDS And GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

SCATTERED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Tornadoes)

N TX....OK....KS....E CO....NE....S IA....MO....N, C AR....W, C TN....KY....SW OH....C, S IN....C, S IL

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

C, E TX....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC Upstate....Far W NC....E TN

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Scattered Locations In

N TX....OK....KS....E CO....NE....S IA....MO....N, C AR....W, C TN....KY....SW OH....C, S IN....C, S IL

(QPF 1 - 4")

Isolated Locations In

C, E TX....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC Upstate....Far W NC....E TN

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

OR....CA....NV....AZ....NM....TX....W, C OK....W, C KS....CO....UT....C, S ID....C, S MT....WY....NE Panhandle

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

FENG YUN (CMA)

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; CMA

 

Where there is a ridge, there is extreme heat. Where there is a (monsoon) trough, welcome torrential rain and thunder.

There is a decently strong monsoonal fetch, but as is the case with many El Nino episodes, the capability for moisture expansion is limited. Western India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, through most of Persia and the Middle East and Saudi Arabia, will be subject to hellish heat and drought, likely to last through the first week of September. You can almost call this the "Asian Response to Global Warming", as the set-up has occurred with few alterations since 2019 (and perhaps even as far back as 2011). The drain on water reserves will be tremendous outside of the monsoon, which in a normal year sometimes even reaches back into southeastern Iran.

I have also noticed that some of the extreme heat will be lining up across Central Asia and into Eastern China. With the polar westerlies shifting north until late July, the importation of cTw values will run roughly along the old "Silk Road" (where the "Belt And Road" projects are now in progress). Most of Russia should miss out on the hot air, as disturbances moving across Siberia will bring cloudy, cool, and showery weather across most of the Commonwealth.

HIMAWARI 8

JTWC; METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

An incoherent Madden-Julian Oscillation yields typhoon threats to East Asia. 

Typhoon Mekkhala is moving northwest, and will recurve to due north motion as it encounters winds from the polar jet stream above Taiwan in early week. Much of Indonesia and northern/central Australia are showing drought and heat symptoms common to entrenched El Nino episodes, while the equatorial Pacific Basin waters are percolating with mostly diurnal convection. There are other tropical waves further east which may also organize, but precipitation impacts will be confined to the island groups and Japanese Archipelago. Remember, as we get into autumn, these storms will likely pivot further east, and could help to amplify the 500MB configuration in a way that would favor cold intrusions into central and eastern North America (like 2014).

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The equatorial moisture axis remains far separated from the storm-laden polar westerlies. But some energy is jumping over the heat ridge complex stretching from the central Pacific Ocean into the western USA. This is why thunderstorm threats will remain active along and to the right of the Rocky Mountains. You can see the higher dewpoints and cloudiness moving up from Mexico, which is the start of the monsoonal fetch. Some of this disturbed weather will feed into the incoming shortwaves, which is why severe weather is highly possible as the unstable values crash into the dry component in the deserts and cooler air out of Canada. But the West continues to confound the numerical model forecasts, with more heat and drought likely into July.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

This is somewhat of a cool Canada vs. hot USA alignment. But the very high relative humidity streaming in from two source regions (equatorial Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea) is creating an environment for repeated strong/severe thunderstorms, which will likely be a factor in travel through this upcoming weekend to the right of the Continental Divide. There are no real tropical cyclone threats showing on current satellite imagery, with shearing winds aloft and linear surface convergence in two low-level jet formations.

There are many disturbances over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, but diurnal convection is minimal across northern South America. Two frontal structures with showers and thunderstorms are seen in central Argentina and in the vicinity of the Rio De La Plata. Note the large cyclonic cold pool approaching Chile, which may energize precipitation chances east of the Andes Range in the new week.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

Heat wave, anyone?

The prominent heat ridge which is moving across western Europe will have an influence across the subcontinent during the new week. Only gradually pushing eastward, the chances for record extreme heat may linger in many countries through next weekend. The closed low and trough offshore may bring relief to the British Isles by Wednesday, but if the upper low closes off west of Portugal as is possible, the ridging may translate into a blocking signature, and act to prolong the searing heat.

The broad Saharan heat ridge is under southwest flow at the highest levels, which can easily be seen shearing the the four giant ITCZ waves in western/central Africa. These impulses are not expected to organize into named storms. Cold fronts and upper lows are having string impacts on the southern third of the African continent, which may see a strong frontal passage late in the new week.