WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, July 4, 2026; WEATHER EXTREMES And GLOBAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

E OK....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC....W NC....TN....KY....OH....WV....W, C VA....DC....MD....PA....DE....NJ....S NY

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms
(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

N AB....N SK....N MB

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

E OK....AR....LA....MS....AL....FL....GA....SC....W NC....TN....KY....OH....WV....W, C VA....DC....MD....PA....DE....NJ....S NY

(QPF 1 - 3")

Isolated Locations In

N AB....N SK....N MB

(QPF 1 - 3")

 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

SE PA....S NJ....DE....MD....DC....VA....NC....SC....GA....FL....AL....S TN....MS....AR....LA....TX....OK....KS....NE....SD....ND....E MT....E WY....CO....NM....AZ....UT....S NV....S CA Deserts

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

FENG YUN

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; CMA

 

The monsoonal moisture fetch is alive and well, increasing across South Asia as well as Indochina. Convection associated with the monsoon is reaching through much of eastern China, but is largely staying out of the area west of the Indus River. The heat ridge complex is very stable across Saudi Arabia, Persia and Pakistan, and may even expand as we approach the middle of July, enough to bring the intense heat into the Caucasus, Caspian Sea shoreline as wella s southern Russia. Brutally hot air is locking in across the Central Asian Republics and Mongolia.

 

HIMAWARI 9

JTWC; METEOBLUE; MSC

 

Super Typhoon Bavi will pass just north of Guam on Sunday, then move west/northwest. It appears that the Philippines will not be involved, and the system will still be a moderately strong typhoon involving Taiwan and the eastern PRC next Friday and Saturday. Many of the forecast models suggest a massive heat ridge will envelop Japan, and the atmospheric linkage on such an event favors record heat across the western and central lower 48 states.

A cold frontal passage is evident across southern Australia. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is basically dead, with widespread heat and drought evident through Indonesia.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

There is still no sign of tropical systems organizing close to Mexico, although a wave in Panama may surprise and organize as it passes along and below Central America during the new week. You will note the splitting of the heat ridge across the lower 48 states, with the dominant half being the Sonoran complex and the Bermuda High tending to weaken. Hence the forecast calls for dangerous heat through the Desert and Intermountain Region into Texas through the medium range, and likely beyond.

 

GOES EAST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

We still have a way to go before a truly classic El Nino signature will form, as there is extensive moisture and convection along and above the Amazon River in South America. Brazil is very dry and fai, but vigorous storms are present just west of Chile and below the Rio De La Plata system. Most of the southern half of the continent will be colder than normal, in keeping with the progression of the austral winter.

The subtropical regions have west/southwest flow aloft, and skies are fair, hot with some pockets of Saharan dust and haze. The heat ridge complex over the lower 48 states has a very visible dent in it across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with thunderstorm threats continuing to edge to the south and east on Sunday.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The polar westerlies are strong enough to keep the heat out of the British Isles as well as northern and eastern Europe. The Iberian heat ridge, linked directly to the Saharan subtropical high, will maintain hot weather across Portugal, Spain, France and Italy for most of the next ten days, however, and may bring a return of  hot air to the United Kingdom and Germany/Denmark July 12-14.

There are two strong heta ridge signatures across Africa, in the Sahara and Kalahari Deserts. The ITCZ is quite active despite this being an El Nino episode, with thunderstorms percolating all the way from Eritrea and Somalia west to the Cape Verde Islands and equatorial Atlantic Ocean. The upper wind fields are still westerly and in a shearing set-up, but from now to mid-August there will be small potential to see formation of a tropical depression or named storm.