WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Sunday, July 30, 2006 at 4:25 A.M. ET
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TODAY'S FUN
LINK:
STORM MACHINE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH NEXT 72
HOURS
Ready for a spread of 100 deg F temperatures from the High Plains into southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states? If you use 850MB temperatures of +24 C as a guideline (say from GFS or NAM forecasts), then most of the Interstate 70, 80, 90, and 94 corridors will be visited by about three to four days of extreme heat. When you see a 500MB high of 594dcm passing from MO and IA eastward to DE and S NJ, then it is a reasonable proposition to suggest that excessive heat warnings are a must for the Interstate 95 corridor from providence RI to Richmond VA. As for the Old South, the presence of an upper weakness below the heat ridge means lots of high dewpoints and diurnal convection, thus limiting the possibility for dangerous HI levels through the near term. Some of the Gulf of Mexico moisture dominating Dixie will mix in with the torrid values further north, making for a rather oppressive regime that will not fully exit the scene until perhaps Thursday (and that may be an only temporary situation).
Thunderstorms are a major concern with the existing jet stream configuration. Using the analogues of 1976 and 1998, which are viable due to the profound baroclinic zone in southern Canada and the tendency for a 500MB weakness along the East Coast, every shortwave riding through the flow aloft will likely set off supercells and linear thunderstorm clusters (such as LEWP and derecho formations). While convective feedback can be a problem for the various NWP schemes, all of the models say the same thing: severe weather will be an ongoing threat close to the International Border through Tuesday. A "right turn" mechanism is present in the Northeast, so from this morning through Day 3 anyone living above Interstate 70 and to the east of Interstate 77 will have an ongoing risk of damaging winds, downpours, vivid lightning strikes and the isolated hail or tornado occurrence.
Potential for strong convection also exists in Dixie (noted above) and the Desert and Intermountain Regions. With a 500MB upper low slowly taking shape in CA, the enhanced "summer monsoon" will produce diurnal+orographic thunderstorms on a daily basis. As temperatures aloft cool, hail threats will increase along with microbursts kicking up dust clouds. For this reason, temperatures in the southwestern states, while hot, will probably stay in normal ranges over the next 72 hours.
Short-Range Numerical Weather
Prediction Models
(red dot
indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
RUC NAM GFS-5. RGEM. MM5 UKMET
CRAS SREF COAMPS RAMS
The
Weather Research And Forecasting Model Website
National Centers for Environmental
Prediction Models
Texas A&M Weather
Interface
______________________________________________________________________
Online Weather Discussions And
Forums
U.S. & World Weather Forums
CanadianWeather.org - Forecasts, Charts and Community
Forums
Online Weather Information
Guides
AMS Glossary WW2010 Helper Section
Index
Weather Calculator
COMET Case Study Library on the WWW
Climate Normals For The U.S.
Golden Gate Weather ENSO
Page
Weather Information
Plotting/Mapping
nowCOAST: GIS Mapping
Portal
NOAA Internal Experimental Winter Weather Impact
Graphics
The Weather Forecaster Web
Page
Plymouth State Weather
Center
Dr. Bob Hart's
Coolwx.com
U.S.
National Satellite Perspectives
Next-Generation Weather Satellite Demonstration
Project
Infrared Visible Vapor
Hawaii Infrared Hawaii Visible
Alaska Infrared Alaska Visible Alaska
Vapor
Canada Satellite
Perspectives
Environment Canada Satellite Image
Directory
Satellite Animations And
Multi-Channel Imagery
RAMSDIS ONLINE
NOAA Polar Satellite
Views Around North America
Quicklook Swaths
Browser
AVHRR Dynamic Tracking Windows
Milan Konecny's NOAA Satellite Views
Savannah-Weather.Com
NOAA HRPT Weather Satellite Images
National Radar
Summaries
National NEXRAD Summary
Environment Canada Radar
Summary
Numerical Model Temperature
Forecasts
Current NWS MOS Forecast
Products
Links To Current Weather Conditions
Around
North America And Worldwide
MesoNet Data
NWS Precipitation Analysis
Pages Current Weather Observations
Ocean Prediction Center - Unified Surface
Analysis
National Data Buoy Center Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Solar, Lunar, Astronomy
Information
MeL: Space &
Astronomy
SpaceWeather.Com
Tonight's Sky Sky & Telescope Interactive Sky
Chart
Human Space Flight - NASA-TV Solar
Terrestrial Activity Report
Satellite-Derived Forecast Products
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
Forecast Products
Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Upper Air Analyses
Around North America
Upper Air Data From University Of
Wyoming
Aviation Weather
Analyses And Forecasts
Soundings from Commercial
Airliners
Aviation Weather Center
(AWC)
ORA Projects Page
ADDS - Turbulence
Environment Canada Aviation
Products
National Soil
Moisture Levels
Palmer Index Map (For Soil Moisture)
Drought Monitor
___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more
total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
(probable trajectory for midlatitude cyclones affecting populous sections of the United States and Canada)
______________________________________________________________________
AWC National Convective Weather Forecast Product
Oklahoma University Daily Real Time Analysis And Forecast System
Experimental 0-3 Hour Convective Weather Forecast Products
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
Environment Canada Severe Weather Model
Severe Weather Watch Boxes
SPC Watch, Warning and Advisory Display
Local Weather Warnings
College Of DuPage Severe Weather Warnings Page
U.S. Station Weather Probability Forecasts
READY - State Weather
NAM MOS Graphics NGM MOS Graphics
Form For Selecting AVN MOS Bulletins NAM Precip Type Meteograms
______________________________________________________________________
Visible, Infrared, And Water Vapor
High Resolution Satellite And Radar Views:
University Of Washington Weather Graphics Loops
IPS Meteostar
Regional Radar Summaries
Northeast
Southeast
North Central
South Central
Northwest
Southwest
Useful
Television Station And Commercial
Doppler Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : TV
Radars
Doppler Radar Images From Government Sources
National Weather Service Doppler
Radars
Environment Canada Doppler
Radars
Experimental
Radar Images From The National Weather Service
National
Lightning Detection Map
StrikeStar US
Experimental Lightning Location
Network
Environment Canada Lightning
Map
BARBADOS Worthing VIRGIN ISLANDS St. Croix
Media Resources, Online Mapping And Travel AidsKevin Brewster Storm Spotting Frequencies Page
TV Station Web Page Directory Radio-Locator
National Traffic and Road Closure Information Traffic Reports Gas Prices MapQuest Windows Live Local Microsoft TerraServer Google Earth
The National Atlas of the United States of America
Where On Earth - Latitude Longitude Finder
Map-It - A GMT3 Map Generator
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next
6 to 10 days)
While a cold
front and upper shortwave are expected to crash the heat ridge in the Midwest
and Northeast during Thursday, I should caution that the hotter air will make a
comeback of sorts, beginning this weekend. All of the numerical models, as well
as teleconnections on the outstanding features in Canada, point toward a
westward extension of the Bermuda High. Using the 588dcm height contour at
500MB as the outward boundary of the ridging, locations along and south of
Interstate 80 can expect another run of readings above 90 F, and probably
touching on 100 deg F during the Day 6-10 time frame.
Close observation of the computer model output shows two areas that bear close watching. One is a weakness from FL into PA, which a tropical system could move into (see TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK below). Another is thunderstorm production along the International Border. With strong shortwaves riding along the flow, undercutting the Rex block in YT and NT and then phasing with a cold low aloft in Baffin Island, convection will again be rampant from AB and MT into the Great Lakes and Northeast, beginning next Saturday.
Medium Range Numerical Weather Prediction
Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
GFS UKMETx ECMWF. NOGAPS GGEM MM5x KMA RSM JMA CPTEC GBL Ensembles DGEX EPS Maps
NCEP AVN-GFS
Ensembles NOGAPS Ensembles WRF Hemispheric
Medium Range NWP Verification
Statistics
Climate Prediction Center - D+8 Upper Air
Tools
______________________________________________________________________
Worldwide and International Satellite
Images
Earth Viewer: View Any Location from Any
Satellite
______________________________________________________
GOES 12 (The
Americas, Atlantic Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GOES 10 (Eastern
Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GMS 5 (Asia,
Australia, Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 5
(Central Asia)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 7
(Europe And Africa)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
Arctic Sea
Europe Infrared Europe Visible Europe Vapor
Russia The Middle East The Orient India
Australia New Zealand South America Africa
Antarctica
______________________________________________________________________
International Weather Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : World Radar
Data
Domestic And
International Weather Cameras
EarthCam
- Webcam Network
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
(information and forecasts of
warm-core or subtropical features)
Two items to
think about when judging tropical cyclone potential for the next three
months:
1) There is no "El Nino" SST anomaly present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. If a warm phase ENSO were to develop, it would most likely occur in later fall. Remember that changes in upper wind fields associated with such episodes take time to get started, so we probably will not have lower latitude westerlies in evidence until November. So by that reasoning, there is about a ninety day window for impulses to organize, provided that sources for such disturbances are viable. Since there have been prior and current observation of diffuse frontal structures, "Cape Verde" ITCZ waves, warming TUTT signatures and subtropical thunderstorm clustering, odds on a 20-named-storm hurricane season look good.
2) The two items which have been eroding African ITCZ perturbations, Saharan dry air and the cool oceanic temperatures between Dakar and the Virgin Islands, figure to be less of a factor. The dust-laden cTw regime is taking a due westward course into the Atlantic Ocean, staying away from the disturbances emerging off of the Cape Verde vicinity. And as SSTs moderate in the lower latitudes, the huge block of warmed waters east of New England have expanded eastward into the European sectors. Teleconnections on this "bathwater anomaly" strongly support a massive high pressure ridge covering the area between the northeastern states and France, which will in turn provide a superb growth and steering mechanism for tropical waves.
The conclusion we can make is that the tropical cyclone season is about to heat up, and fast! Satellite imagery indicates three viable candidates for warm-core cyclogenesis: an impulse over Hispaniola and PR (poor odds due to proximity to land), a low approaching the Leeward Islands (even money as it dodges the cool water to its north), and a huge tropical wave centered in Dakar (excellent potential with no shear, dry air, or lowered SSTs in its way). The system closest to the U.S. may well get caught up in the 500MB weakness forecast to form late this week over the Southeast, so enhanced rainfall is possible for the Mid-Atlantic coastline if the disturbance merges with the cold front expected to dent the major heat wave above 40 N Latitude. I suspect that the middle feature will reach named storm status (but just how strong the circulation could become is open to debate), with designs on the NC shoreline in about seven to eight days. Of course that third monster convective swirl now appears to be the "one to watch" as it heads westward under the humongous Atlantic Basin heat ridge.
Satellite Images Of Individual Tropical
Systems
NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone
Page
QuikSCAT
Satellite Images Of
Tropical Regions
GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Hurricane
Sector
Atlantic Basin Satellite Services Division - Tropical Atlantic Satellite
Imagery
Mexico And Pacific Coastal
Waters
Central Pacific Ocean
Oceania And Tropical Western Pacific
Ocean
Indian Ocean
Digital Typhoon:
Typhoon Images and Information
Tropical Meteorology Links
National Hurricane
Center / Tropical Prediction Center
CIMSS
Sea
Surface Temperatures
NODC Coastal Water Temperature
Guide
Great
Lakes Sea Grant Coastwatch Homepage
NCODA Sea Surface
Temperatures
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Anomaly
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Climatology
Marine Weather
Information
WWW Tide/Current Predictor - Site
Selection
Office of Coast Survey - Home - Nautical
Charts
Regional Ocean Forecast System
(ROFS)
NOAA/NCEP WAM Global Swell
Data
Environment Canada Ocean Wave
Forecasts
NOAA WAVEWATCH III Wave Models
(interactive)
Great Lakes Water
Levels
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE
on
Sunday, July 30, 2006 at 4:25 A.M. ET
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only,
and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this
newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and
the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those
sites.
Copyright 2006 by Larry Cosgrove
All rights
reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in
whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the
author.