WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, February 18, 2023 at 10: 30 PM CT; Longer Term Forecast

[Larry Cosgrove]

EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST

(Between Day 11 And Day 15)

 

Suggested Reading:
A GUIDE TO BAROCLINIC DISTURBANCES AFFECTING NORTH AMERICA, Part 3; Revised/Edited Thursday, November 4, 2021

Your Last And Best Chance For A Winter Storm, And Serious Cold, In The Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast?

CIMSS

NOAA/IMS (2)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (3)

NOAA/PMEL

NOAA/CPC

IRI/Columbia University

HPRCC/University Of Nebraska (2)

Environment Canada

TrueWx.Com (3)

TropicalTidbits.Com (Dr. Levi Cowan) (5)

NOAA/CPC

Taking the information in the previous paragraph one step further, is there any chance we can see an end to the snow drought in Appalachia and the Atlantic Coastal Plain? Yes, but provided that the current modeled forecast data is correct! For some time now, the guidance has shown the familiar sequence of a deep Grand Banks (50/50) mAk vortex, the resultant formation of an Icelandic block that retrogresses to Greenland, and (most importantly), the arrival of energy form both the northern and southern streams. Redevelopment of the combined disturbances off of the Virginia Capes would be strong, draw in the cold pool and vorticity to its north and east, and set up a probable bombogenesis case that would create a very wintery scenario for most of the 11-15 day period above the VA/NC.

But before anyone draws back in fear or jumps for joy, we have not seen a set-up like this since 2015! A meaningful Miller B cyclone is a rarity these days. And you have to consider that the current winter season has been heavy on the snow through the West and north central U.S. Most of you located to the right of the Rocky Mountains and below Interstate 90 have been crying in their beer over the lack of winter, with a few exceptions. There is still considerable time to watch the set-up and see if it remains consistent in modeled imagery. The blocking ridge is evident in the Days 16 - 20 period, so I suppose it is even possible that we squeeze out a full week of more widespread cold and a frozen precipitation episode over the Midwest and Northeast in the first week of March.

However, you also need to look at the cold trough complex over the Intermountain Region, which would have fair chances to draw up warmer air in the south central states and Dixie. Severe weather chances will start to rise in that part of the U.S. Remember also that despite all the media attention to the formative sudden stratospheric warming event, SSW cases after mid-February are not consistent contributors to negative temperature anomalies and snowstorms. Whatever winter weather that happens to those locations found lacking in typical cold/ice/snow is going to occur as we transition from February to March, or likely not at all.

You can always move Canada or the western states, right?

 

Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Saturday, February 18, 2023 at 10:30 P.M. CT

Disclaimer: 
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is not responsible for content posted or associated with those sites.

Copyright 2023 by Larry Cosgrove

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