WEATHERAmerica Newsletter; Saturday, April 4, 2026; Holiday Weather Outline

[Larry Cosgrove]

TODAY'S FUN LINKS:

Winter Snow Is Disappearing across the Northern Hemisphere Earth.com - 6 March 2026 A new analysis of long-term snow records published in the Journal of Hydrometeorology found that for many regions across the Northern Hemisphere, the winter snow season often starts later and ends sooner than it did in the 1980s, and sometimes barely settles in at all. Colorado University Boulder Proposes Taking Over NCAR with Partner Universities if the Lab Is Broken Up Boulder Reporting Lab - 19 March 2026 In a letter to the National Science Foundation, Colorado University proposed a consortium led by CU Boulder, the University of Oklahoma, and the University of Wyoming to take over NCAR’s assets if restructuring moves forward. Mind-Blowing March Heat Wave Crests; Records Melt from Arizona to Minnesota Yale Climate Connections - 23 March 2026 Fourteen states set all-time March heat records, and the U.S.-wide record was tied or beaten on four consecutive days. A Storm of Support: Student Organization Weathers the Gap Between Classroom and Career University of Northern Colorado - 24 March 2026 The University of Northern Colorado's AMS chapter connects students through career development, community service, and a tight-knit culture of weather enthusiasts. "Science under Attack": Top Climate Scientist Kate Marvel Explains Why She Resigned from NASA (may require subscription) Scientific American - 25 March 2026 Marvel resigned from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Sciences, where she studied climate change and its effects on Earth’s systems. Weather Balloon Program Takes Off at Indiana University, Improving Local Weather Forecasting Indiana University - 25 March 2026 Data collected from a new IU initiative will inform nationwide research on atmospheric rivers while improving the accuracy of local weather forecasting in Indiana. Solar Flare Spotlights the Martian Ionosphere Eos - 27 March 2026 A “lucky” linkup between orbiters helped scientists study how the Red Planet’s ionosphere responds to solar events. Climate Change May Complicate Avalanche Risk across the Pacific Northwest University of Washington - 23 March 2026 A new study showed that as winters warm, snowpacks in the region may come to resemble those of maritime areas, with more rain-on-snow events, icy crusts, and complex avalanche forecasting. 2026’s Historic Snow Drought Brings Worries about Water, Wildfires, and the Future in the West The Conversation - 25 March 2026 Ordinarily, water managers and hydrologists who study the Western United States expect the mountain snowpacks to be at their fullest around April 1, but the 2026 water year has been anything but ordinary. Study Explains Antarctic Sea Ice Growth and Sudden Decline Stanford University - 27 March 2026 Although models predicted Antarctic sea ice would steadily dwindle, its extent grew for decades until 2016, and the new research found that the ice finally receded when wind-driven upwelling unleashed warmer, deeper water.

 

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes

FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....DE....C, E PA....NJ....S NY (NYC, LI)

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....DE....C, E PA....NJ....S NY (NYC, LI)

(QPF 1 - 2")

 

WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL

(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

C, N QC....N NB....PEI....NL

(Snow, Sleet, Freezing Rain; 4-8" Snow, Considerable Nocturnal Glazing)

Isolated Locations In

W ON....S MB....N, C MN

(Snow, Freezing Drizzle With Nocturnal Glazing)

Isolated Locations In

W AB

(Snow, Freezing Drizzle; Some Glazing)

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Isolated Locations In

CA....S NV....W AZ

From the look of things, this should be a relatively easy forecast for North American locations between now and May 15.

Of course, such statements are usually an open invitation for chaos, but there is no mistaking what has been happening in general synoptic climatology over and near the continent since March 1.  A generally warm forecast was actually too conservative (heat records were sent as far east as the Mississippi Valley). The main pattern of the Spring so far has been warmth and dryness over the Desert and Intermountain Regions. Occasionally this arid/hotter pattern will jump out to the Great Plains. With an El Nino episode on the horizon, this scenario could be repeated for the coming summer (JJAS). Analog forecasts suggest that May and June will be quite warm in much of the lower 48 states, but only after a changeable Spring with moderate frequency of synoptic-scale and MCS thunderstorm events to the right of the Rocky Mountains. The latter type (mesoscale convective system) is highly likely to visit Texas and Louisiana perhaps three times between now and mid-May.

This is the likely course for the remainder of April. Although there is a lot of diversity among the numerical models in terms of the national temperature outlay, I am following a warmer-leaning trend overall. I am highly suspicious of colder outlooks in the West, simply because that idea has verified only a few times in favor of hotter air off of the Sonoran Desert. The retreat of the polar and subtropical jet streams to higher latitudes suggests that the cold/snow/ice events along the Canadian border are just about done, and agricultural interests in southern Canada will be pleased to read that the chances of Arctic air coming into play should be done in the third week of April.

The related graphics are attached in succeeding pages.