TODAY'S FUN LINKS: | | Thunderstorms Don't Just Appear out of Thin Air, Say Scientists UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - 4 March 2026 New research found that interactions between soil moisture patterns and wind in the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere influence where storms develop, and that monitoring these patterns would provide earlier warnings. |
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| | Spectrum Showdown SpaceNews - 3 March 2026 As satellite communications constellations grow in size and number, they are also competing for a scarce and increasingly valuable resource: spectrum, the bands of radio frequencies that are crucial for tracking weather. |
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| | How Does Snow Gather on a Roof? American Institute of Physics - 10 March 2026 No two snowflakes may be the same, but according to new research, models that fail to take these variations into consideration often fall short when calculating the way snow accumulates on roofs. |
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WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
STRONG WINDS
(Pressure Gradient Derived)
NE....IA....MO....KS
HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)
Isolated Locations In
S NY....CT....RI....MA
(QPF 1 - 3")
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
(potential for Moderate Icing, Snow 2 - 4" or more, and/or temperatures below 10 deg F)
Isolated Locations In
S QC....N NY....N VT....ME....NS
(Snow, Sleet; 3 - 6")
Isolated Locations In
Coastal Ranges BC
(Snow; Above 4500 Feet; 4 - 24")
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK
(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)
Scattered Locations In
CA....NV....AZ....UT....CO....NM.....W, C TX....OK....KS....S NE....MO....W AR
(a review of important weather features around the world)
IODC
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The "Out Of Africa" fetch is back in action.
Satellite imagery shows two major influences on weather for the Levant and Persia. The first is the deep, straight-shot moisture advection from central and eastern equatorial Africa through the Red Sea, Arabian Peninsula into eastern Iran/Pakistan. The other is the storm and frontal structure in Kurdistan, which is triggering widesp[read heavy precipitation ranging from snow in higher elevations to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall along the Mediterranean coastline and through the Balkan and Anatolian Peninsulas.
What happens when the two features merge? The ECMWF model panels show an immense upper low that tracks through Turkey and the Caucasus in a very slow manner. No interruption in moisture is likely, bringing ten days worth of heavy rain, snow, etc all the way from Greece into the Indus River watershed. Where orographic and synoptic forcing is present (Iran into Turkmenistan) there could be excessive amounts of precipitation. Note that there is no cold air involved here (stuck in Scandinavia, Siberia and Alaska/Canada). When the storms stop (early May), the heat begins again. Until that time, some rough weather to deal with from the Middle East into western India.
HIMAWARI 8
JTWC; METEOBLUE; Kochi University
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is alive and well, pulsing below the Equator. Typhoon Narelle is weakening while skirmishing in northern Australia. But the MJO has a viable connection to the large storm complex west of the Hawaiian Islands, as well as the large vortex approaching the Gulf of Alaska. There are some suggestions from the numerical models that a merged disturbance will move around the immense heat ridge over the western 2/3 of the lower 48 states, creating a serious wind and precipitation event across southern Canada next weekend.
GOES WEST
NOAA/NESDIS
The sprawling storm complex that involves the eastern half of the northern Pacific Basin is an important player. All of its elements will come together later in the new week, and proceed to push across southern Canada (probably involving New York/New England like the current small shortwave, but with greater impacts). This feature will at first advect more dry and warm values out of the West which may involve the Eastern Seaboard, if only briefly. But intense cold, ice and snow, with high winds, are very likely from British Columbia to the the Maritime Provinces when the system accelerates on or after March 25.
GOES EAST
NOAA/NESDIS
The expanse of the Sonoran heat ridge can easily be seen here. This is a cold Canada vs. warm/dry USA alignment that may be briefly suppressed early in the new week, only to surge back to life as the aforementioned storm takes over and rockets across southern Canadian provinces by next weekend. Note that southern Mexico, Central America and Hispaniola are cloudy and unseasonably cool due to the lingering effects of the strong cold front from early last week.
Cold fronts are activating from the Pacific Basin across central and southern South America, which can be taken as a sign of the austral autumn. The Amazon Basin is tending to dry out and warm up, perhaps a sign of the impending El Nino episode. Note that a huge northern Atlantic Ocean storm is drawing ITCZ moisture away from Brazil.
METEOSAT
ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT
The current, and future, broad 500MB low (not a vortex) is affecting much of central and eastern Europe. Another low-latitude storm aloft near the Azores will take its place over the next 6-10 days, setting up a mild/dry north vs. cool/moist alignment across Europe.
In Africa, a broad arc of thunderstorms and moisture covers the eastern third of the continent, with most precipitation aimed at Saudi Arabia and later on Iran/Pakistan. When combined with the energy moving out of southern Europe, a textbook "Out Of Africa' major precipitation event could occur from Turkey, the Levant, Persia and the Indus Valley. Heat and dryness in the Niger watershed could be an ongoing issue in Spring and Summer across equatorial Africa.
