JJAS SUMMER WEATHER FORECAST; Saturday, May 2, 2026; MONTHLY WEATHER BREAKDOWN (1)

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Larry Cosgrove

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May 2, 2026, 1:32:33 AM (11 days ago) May 2
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MONTHLY FORECASTS
MAY
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I follow the ECMWF projection here. Note the ehat ridge over central and southern Mexico, which in mid-May should start to pump up hot air from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. The southern branch, with shortwaves embedded, may target the southern tier with thunderstorms. Favoring a faster warm-up: a well-defined Gulf of Alaska Low.

JUNE
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A strong warm-up as the Sonoran heat ridge and Sargasso Sea High will be equally in control. The flow aloft should flatten out somewhat, with the only repetitive wet/cool set-up in the Pacific Northwest. California may be cooled early by the marine layer. Note the dryness in Texas.

JULY
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After the Independence Day holiday, a trough evolves across the Great Lakes into Appalachia. Cooler values fall into a gap between the weakening Bermuda High and the strengthening Sonoran heat ridge. The 500MB positive height anomaly suggests a very hot/dry situation for the West Coast into Texas. Thunderstorms (probably MCC or MCS formations) will start knocking down temperatures from Ontario and the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley.

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