WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Wednesday, February 15, 2006 at 3:50 A.M. ET
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TODAY'S FUN
LINK:
Hurricane Hollow's Weather
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WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH NEXT 72
HOURS
The low pressure center developing over UT and CO may add another dimension to its forecast bag of tricks during the near term. Whereas previous predictions only emphasized wind, rain and thunderstorm potential, the most recent NWP model runs suggest a quick-hitting blizzard will get underway from WY and NE into parts of the Great Lakes region. The intake of moisture is somewhat limited, owing to the presence of a strong heat ridge over the lower Gulf of Mexico and Strait of Yucatan. This subtropical high effectively cuts off deep instability from the Caribbean Sea, a source region which has been an important player in previous convective episodes this winter. But the rather profound upper dynamics (note the monster, difluent jet stream and the extreme baroclinic zone in the vicinity) will create radical lifting and forcing all the way from the High Plains into the Northeast. Intense convection will fire from KS into N TX before bolting into IN....IL....W KY....MO....W TN....AR....LA over the following 36 hours. At the same time, the brutal cold and heavy snow seen in the northern Rocky Mountains will move in a relatively small cluster toward the east northeast. Cities such as Omaha NE....Des Moines IA....Waterloo IA....Madison WI and Traverse City MI could see as much as a foot of snow, whipped by howling winds and laced with Arctic cold during the course of the next two days.
It would appear that the surface low will track just below the St. Lawrence River toward ME and NB, so parts of ON and QC may get in on extreme snow and ice with brutal cold following the snowfall. Very high winds are noted in upper level forecasts through the lower Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday, and if any convection fires along the frontal structure (do not let the snow cover issue fool you into thinking everything is stable), the prospect of tree/limb damage and power problems may surface once again for New England. Also, snowmelt combined with briefly heavy rainfall could set off urban and small stream flooding before the cold and dry values occupy communities above 30 N Latitude this weekend. At this time, it appears that the leading edge of the cA air mass will reach as far south as Interstate 10 before beginning a northward lurch late in the weekend.
There will be a huge 500MB low developing along the West Coast, beneath a current Rex signature in the vicinity of BC. Over the following 72 hours, the ridge will shift into an EPO-styled placement across the western Gulf of Alaska. This retrogression will enable a slow southeastward drift to the formative cutoff low, increasing rainfall rates and higher elevation snows from CA and OR through the Great Basin, probably reaching the "Four Corners" vicinity by Friday evening. temperatures will remain below normal across much of the western U.S. (excepting S CA....S NV....C, S AZ) through the short range.
Short-Range Numerical Weather
Prediction Models
(red dot
indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
RUC NAM GFS-5. RGEM. MM5 UKMET
CRAS SREF COAMPS RAMS
The
Weather Research And Forecasting Model Website
National Centers for Environmental
Prediction Models
Texas A&M Weather
Interface
______________________________________________________________________
Online Weather Information
Guides
AMS Glossary WW2010 Helper Section
Index
Weather Calculator
COMET Case Study Library on the WWW
Climate Normals For The U.S.
Golden Gate Weather ENSO
Page
Weather Discussion
Forums
Eastern US Weather
Forums
CanadianWeather
Weather Information
Plotting/Mapping
The Weather Forecaster Web
Page
Plymouth State Weather
Center
Dr. Bob
Hart's Coolwx.com
U.S. National Satellite Perspectives
Next-Generation Weather Satellite Demonstration
Project
Infrared Visible Vapor
Hawaii Infrared Hawaii Visible
Alaska Infrared Alaska Visible Alaska
Vapor
Canada Satellite
Perspectives
Environment Canada Satellite Image
Directory
Satellite Animations And
Multi-Channel Imagery
RAMSDIS ONLINE
NOAA Polar Satellite
Views Around North America
Quicklook Swaths
Browser
AVHRR Dynamic Tracking Windows
Milan Konecny's NOAA Satellite Views
Savannah-Weather.Com
NOAA HRPT Weather Satellite Images
National Radar
Summaries
National NEXRAD Summary
Environment Canada Radar
Summary
Numerical Model Temperature
Forecasts
Current NWS MOS Forecast
Products
Links To Current Weather Conditions
Around
North America And Worldwide
MesoNet Data
NWS Precipitation Analysis
Pages Current Weather Observations
Ocean Prediction Center - Unified Surface
Analysis
National Data Buoy Center Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Solar, Lunar, Astronomy
Information
MeL: Space &
Astronomy
SpaceWeather.Com
Tonight's Sky Sky & Telescope Interactive Sky
Chart
Human Space Flight - NASA-TV Solar
Terrestrial Activity Report
Satellite-Derived Forecast Products
NOAA/NESDIS/ORA
Forecast Products
Near Real-Time Polar
Products
Upper Air Analyses
Around North America
Upper Air Data From University Of
Wyoming
Aviation Weather
Analyses And Forecasts
Soundings from Commercial
Airliners
Aviation Weather Center
(AWC)
ORA Projects Page
ADDS - Turbulence
Environment Canada Aviation
Products
National Soil
Moisture Levels
Palmer Index Map (For Soil Moisture)
Drought Monitor
Snow And Ice
Coverage
U.S. Recent Snowfall & Snowdepth
Maps SSD Snow Products
Page
___________________________________________________________________________
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging
winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)
(probable trajectory for midlatitude cyclones affecting populous sections of the United States and Canada)
______________________________________________________________________
AWC National Convective Weather Forecast Product
Oklahoma University Daily Real Time Analysis And Forecast System
Experimental 0-3 Hour Convective Weather Forecast Products
Collaborative Convective Forecast Product
Environment Canada Severe Weather Model
Severe Weather Watch Boxes
SPC Watch, Warning and Advisory Display
Local Weather Warnings
College Of DuPage Severe Weather Warnings Page
U.S. Station Weather Probability Forecasts
READY - State Weather
NAM MOS Graphics NGM MOS Graphics
Form For Selecting AVN MOS Bulletins NAM Precip Type Meteograms
______________________________________________________________________
Visible, Infrared, And Water Vapor
High Resolution Satellite And Radar Views:
University Of Washington Weather Graphics Loops
IPS Meteostar
Regional Radar Summaries
Northeast
Southeast
North Central
South Central
Northwest
Southwest
Useful
Television Station And Commercial
Doppler Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : TV
Radars
Doppler Radar Images From Government Sources
National Weather Service Doppler
Radars
Environment Canada Doppler
Radars
Experimental
Radar Images From The National Weather Service
National
Lightning Detection Map
StrikeStar US
Experimental Lightning Location
Network
Environment Canada Lightning
Map
BARBADOS Worthing VIRGIN ISLANDS St. Croix
Media Resources, Online Mapping And Travel AidsKevin Brewster Storm Spotting Frequencies Page
TV Station Web Page Directory Radio-Locator
National Traffic and Road Closure Information
MapQuest Windows Live Local Microsoft TerraServer Google Earth
The National Atlas of the United States of America
Where On Earth - Latitude Longitude Finder
Map-It - A GMT3 Map Generator
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next
6 to 10 days)
The presence of a
massive cAk anticyclone in western Canada does not always guarantee an outbreak
of extreme cold over the lower 48 states. I say this because careful examination
of the Arctic high pressure area shows a general eastward motion, implying that
only the northern half of the U.S. will see the brutal cold. And when you factor
in sun angle and overall moderation through the Great Lakes and eventually the
Appalachian Mountains, the intrusion of much lower temperatures will seem like a
brief interlude with what winter can bring.
Note also the relocation of ridging to the central/eastern Pacific Ocean, as well as the continued presence of a strong subtropical high near the Strait of Yucatan. The latter anticyclone should prevent the Deep South from seeing too harsh or extensive of a freeze. But with an EPO-styled positive height anomaly forming, teleconnections do not favor prolonged cold outside of the Intermountain Region and Great Plains. There are some indications of an NAO-styled Rex block near Iceland and then Greenland around Day 10, which would keep the Arctic values in place east of the Rocky Mountains. But realistically, the 500MB longwave pattern should be dominated by a "cold north, warm south" scenario where disturbances eject from the lower Front Range into VA and MD before deepening off the coastline of the Northeast.
Although the 0z Feb 15 GFS version lost what appeared to be a fast-moving low center with abundant overrunning precipitation from the lower Great Plains into VA, many of the various ensembles and operational schemes hint at such an event (if you look carefully, the impulse shows up on Day 6/7 panels of the most recent ECMWF equation as well as the GGEM variants). Timing such a feature will be tough, owing to the fast confluent flow aloft, which could also shear apart the feature. I think that energy ejecting from the developing upper low along the West Coast will enable cyclogenesis, however. Typically, in past years this type of low will produce snow across part of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys into much of the Northeast; a layer of sleet and freezing rain from the Ozark Plateau through the Tennessee Valley and middle Appalachia across portions of N VA and the Mid-Atlantic states. Showers, some convective, would follow a steady cold rain in portions of the Mid-South and NC, while the Gulf Coast would be warm before a brief thunderstorm chance ahead of an advancing cold front. The best time frame for such an episode would be Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Medium Range Numerical Weather Prediction
Models
(red dot indicates preferred model)
______________________________________________________________________
GFS UKMETx ECMWF. NOGAPS GGEM MM5x KMA RSM JMA CPTEC GBL Ensembles. DGEX EPS Maps
NCEP AVN-GFS
Ensembles NOGAPS Ensembles WRF Hemispheric
Medium Range NWP Verification
Statistics
Climate Prediction Center - D+8 Upper Air
Tools
______________________________________________________________________
Worldwide and International Satellite
Images
Earth Viewer: View Any Location from Any
Satellite
______________________________________________________
GOES 12 (The
Americas, Atlantic Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GOES 10 (Eastern
Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
GMS 5 (Asia,
Australia, Pacific Ocean)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 5
(Central Asia)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
METEOSAT 7
(Europe And Africa)
Visible Infrared Vapor
______________________________________________________
Arctic Sea
Europe Infrared Europe Visible Europe Vapor
Russia The Middle East The Orient India
Australia New Zealand South America Africa
Antarctica
______________________________________________________________________
International Weather Radar Sites
WeatherMatrix Radar Supersite : World Radar
Data
Domestic And
International Weather Cameras
EarthCam
- Webcam Network
Satellite Images Of Individual Tropical
Systems
NRL Monterey Tropical Cyclone
Page
QuikSCAT
Satellite Images Of
Tropical Regions
GHCC - Interactive GOES-8 Infrared Hurricane
Sector
Atlantic Basin Satellite Services Division - Tropical Atlantic Satellite
Imagery
Mexico And Pacific Coastal
Waters
Central Pacific Ocean
Oceania And Tropical Western Pacific
Ocean
Indian Ocean
Digital Typhoon:
Typhoon Images and Information
Sea
Surface Temperatures
NODC Coastal Water Temperature
Guide
Great
Lakes Sea Grant Coastwatch Homepage
NCODA Sea Surface
Temperatures
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Anomaly
NCODA Sea Surface Temperature
Climatology
Marine Weather
Information
WWW Tide/Current Predictor - Site
Selection
Office of Coast Survey - Home - Nautical
Charts
Regional Ocean Forecast System
(ROFS)
NOAA/NCEP WAM Global Swell
Data
Environment Canada Ocean Wave
Forecasts
NOAA WAVEWATCH III Wave Models
(interactive)
Great Lakes Water
Levels
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE
on
Wednesday, February 15, 2006 at 3:50 A.M.
ET
Disclaimer:
The previous statements are my opinions only, and should not be
construed as definitive fact. Links provided on this newsletter are not
affiliated with WEATHERAmerica and the publisher is
not responsible for content posted or associated with those
sites.
Copyright 2006 by Larry Cosgrove
All rights
reserved.
This publication may not be reproduced or redistributed in
whole or in part without the expressed written consent of the
author.