WEATHERAmerica Newsletter, Saturday, June 28, 2024

[Larry Cosgrove]

WEATHER HAZARDS (During The Next 24 Hours)

 

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
(potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail within the next 24 hours)

 

Some Thunderstorms May APPROACH Severe Limits

Far W TX....NM....E AZ....E UT....W, C CO....WY

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

W, C NE....KS....OK....W, C AR....Extreme N LA....N MS....N AL....N GA....SC....NC....E TN....C, E KY....WV....VA....DC....MD....DE....PA....NJ....NY....CT....RI

MA....VT....NH....ME....NS....NB....PEI

ISOLATED Severe Thunderstorms

(Microbursts, Large Hail, Isolated Tornadoes)

BC....Far E WA....ID....W MT

 

HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
(potential for an inch or more total rainfall within the next 24 hours)

 

Isolated Locations In

BC....Far E WA....ID....W MT

(QPF 1 - 2")

Isolated Locations In

W, C NE....KS....OK....W, C AR....Extreme N LA....N MS....N AL....N GA....SC....NC....E TN....C, E KY....WV....VA....DC....MD....DE....PA....NJ....NY....CT....RI

MA....VT....NH....ME....S QC....NS....NB....PEI

(QPF 1 - 3") 

EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK

(Potential For Temperature To Exceed 95 deg F)

 

Scattered Locations In

CA....SE OR....C, S ID....UT....AZ....NM....CO....WY....C, E MT....W ND....W, C SD....W, C NE....KS....OK....TX....LA....AR....C, S MO....S IL

KY....TN....MS....AL....N, C FL....GA....SC....NC....VA....DC....MD....DE....SE PA....NJ

GLOBAL WEATHER SUMMARY

(a review of important weather features around the world)

 

IODC

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The monsoon switch may not get much west of the Indus River.

The heat ridge continues to strangle the area covering Saudi Arabia into Iraq and Iran. While the monsoon trough continues to expand across South Asia, the stable nature of the ridge complex makes for a relentless display of extremely high temperatures that are, incredibly, just now nearing the peak time frame for hottest readings (July 2 through July 23). There may be some rogue convection in the southeastern corner of Persia, but the torrential rainfall and thunderstorm potential will only reach Pakistan and parts of Afghanistan. Rainfall over India could be quite heavy, part of a complex associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Phase 2.

The heat will not break in the Levant, Persia and Central Asian Republics until the first week of September.

 

HIMAWARI 8

METEOBLUE; Kochi University

 

The incoherent Madden-Julian Oscillation straddles Phases 2 through 6, giving a boost to the vast Asian monsoon. In turn, deep tropical moisture links with impulses in the polar westerlies, and builds the Gulf of Alaska Low. Thus a teleconnection exists for heat ridge development in the USA. Heavy rainfall and severe weather will be commonplace from the Indian subcontinent through Indochina, the eastern PRC, and the Maritime Continent, Philippine and Japanese Archipelagoes.

 

GOES WEST

NOAA/NESDIS

 

The Gulf of Alaska Low, and its replacement shortwaves from the west, continues in place to the left of the Pacific Northwest. These impulses are expected to move along or just north of the Canadian border, with heavy/severe thunderstorms and showers about every three days. The semizonal jet stream also promoted heat ridge development across the lower 48 states. Moisture from Mexico, part of the monsoonal fetch, will become more dominant on the left side of the subtropical high and lower temperatures via rain and cloud production.

 

GOES EAST

CYCLOCANE; METEOBLUE; NOAA/NESDIS

 

From about eight days out, it would appear that Hurricane Beryl will eventually make a landfall in central Mexico. I urge caution with intensity estimates, because this very small storm has an upper trough and shearing south/southwest flow ahead of it. Many official agencies see this system as a major hurricane impacting the Windward Islands, which is possible. Although Beryl escaped the Saharan Air Layer (very close by to its north), either a recurve northward or disintegration in the Caribbean Sea is possible (climatology and upper profiles are not all favorable)

Note the strong cold fronts in southern Canada and across the eastern third of the USA. These will slowly weaken, but combine, and create an opportunity for severe weather and heavy rainfall from the southern Great Plains through the Tennessee Valley and Eastern Seaboard on Sunday. The heat ridge complex across Texas will continue to provide brutally high temperatures with enough humidity in the air across the south central states. The West is seeing what looks like a gradual infusion of monsoonal thunderstorms form Mexico.

See also the progress of a strong cold front in Bolivia and Brazil. The entire southern half of the continent is under a cool, dry air mass. Further north through the Amazon Basin and Caribbean shoreline, muggy and hot air with sporadic thunderstorms occur.

 

METEOSAT

ECMWF; METEOBLUE; EUMETSAT

 

The troughs and cold fronts are still coming through.

There are going to be cases of hot/dry/dusty air from the Sahara Desert lurching northward into Europe, particularly over the Mediterranean countries and Balkan Peninsula/Asia Minor. But dangers remain for severe thunderstorms and flooding rains are present in France, Germany and Poland. The 500MB troughs and surface cold fronts will be strong enough to make it through eastern Europe, leaving Greece/Turkey into Ukraine and Russia quite warm and sometimes hot.

The vast heat ridge complex across the northern third of Africa is matched by a similar subtropical high over the southern portion of the continent. In between is the active ITCZ across the equatorial nations, which has been successful in setting up a named storm (Beryl) among other string impulses. Only when the Saharan heat ridge complex bulges into Europe will the waves expand and escape influence by the cTw air mass with its sand and dust properties.