The English voice on Scottish independence must be heard
Posted on October 20, 2012
Robert Henderson
The shrieking flaw in the proposed Scottish independence referendum
is the failure to establish the terms of Independence before the
referendum is held. This is vital because all parts of the UK are
potentially seriously affected, especially if Cameron is mad enough
to agree to an independent Scotland using the pound with the Bank of
England as lender of the last resort (http://
englandcalling.wordpress.com/2012/01/22/an-independent-scotland-must-
not-be-allowed-to-have-the-pound-as-their-official-currency/).
The terms of independence should be negotiated between Westminster
and Holyrood and put to a referendum of all parts of the UK apart
from Scotland before the Scottish referendum is held. If it is
rejected the Scottish referendum should be delayed until further
negotiations on terms have been agreed and put to a further
referendum. If that fails, either because no such terms can be
agreed or because they are agreed and the second referendum rejects
them, the question of Scottish incidence should be shelved for ten
years to give time for reflection.
The Agreement between Cameron and Salmond
There is no provision in the agreement signed by Cameron and Salmond
for what happens if no terms for independence are agreed. (http://
www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Government/concordats/Referendum-on-independence).
This has considerable consequences. On the face of things the
strength of the respective negotiating positions of Westminster and
Holyrood in the event of a Yes vote would depend on the size of the
majority for independence. While it is true that a large majority for
independence would add weight to Holyrood’s demands , any Yes vote,
however small the majority, will give Holyrood a strong negotiating
position because something has to be decided. That would put
Westminster in a very difficult situation because, even if they
wished to only agree to equitable terms such as Scotland not using the
Pound and taking on a share proportionate to their population of all
UK public debt, Westminster would be in a very difficult position
if Holyrood refused such terms. In such circumstances, the odds are
that a compromise which was favourable to Scotland and unfavourable to
the rest of the UK would be agreed simply to honour what was implicit
within the idea of a Scottish independence referendum, namely, that
the referendum would result in independence if the vote was Yes.
It is inconceivable that any Westminster Government could refuse to
come to an agreement on the terms of independence, because it would
produce a running political sore which would never be healed.
Holyrood could refuse to come to equitable terms because they would
know that even if Westminster delayed matters for a while by refusing
to agree terms, the odds would be strongly on them caving in sooner
or later. Not only that, if a Government is formed at Westminster in
2015 which does not include the Tories, the terms would almost
certainly be much more in favour than they would be if they were
agreed by the present coalition. There is also the possibility of the
next General Election happening before 2015 if the Coalition falls
apart.
Any agreement on terms would have to be agreed by both the
Westminster and Holyrood Parliaments. If so, it is unlikely that
Holyrood would refuse any terms laid before them by Salmond, although
they might insists on better terms . Westminster is another matter.
Either the Commons or Lords or both could refuse to pass the
legislation needed to give legal form to independence or the Bill
could be amended one way or another during its passage to make it
unacceptable to either Holyrood or the Westminster Government. There
are many MPs in the Commons who have good reasons for trying to stop
the Bill or of improving or worsening the conditions. There would be
a particular temptation for LibDem and Labour MPs sitting for Scottish
seats to jump from the UK political ship and support very favourable
terms for Scotland in the hope of making a political career in
Holyrood politics.
There is also the question of how English, Welsh and Northern Irish
would give their assent to any terms of independence which were
agreed. There has been no mention of a referendum on the terms in all
parts of the UK apart from Scotland. If the Tories and Labour were
behind the terms , there would be no meaningful way of voters to
express their agreement or disagreement at a General Election. The
odds are that the electorate would not be offered an opportunity to
say Yes or No to the terms.
There is also the position of the Scottish electorate to consider. As
they would be buying a pig-in-a-poke if they vote for independence,
there is a very strong case for saying that the Scottish electors
should have a vote of the terms before independence goes ahead.
The practical difficulties
Read more at
http://englandcalling.wordpress.com/2012/10/20/the-english-voice-on-scottish-independence-must-be-heard/