Ice prognostication 12/9

[Evan Perkins]

As of yesterday afternoon, the ice on Long Pond in Benton, New Hampshire, was mostly gone with just some ice left in the back bays and about half of the southern section of the lake Still had some rotten ice. Beaver pond in kinsman notch. Hampshire only had about 50% of its ice left, and that was being actively eroded by the wind as of yesterday afternoon. There was just a thin partial layer of ice left as of yesterday evening on a few ponds in my town of Barnet vt ,but most of them have completely melted off.

          That being said, we have a pretty good weather forecast for new ice formation. The winds were fairly light out of the north last night so it is possible that some protected ponds and small lakes might have caught with a new layer of ice overnight. If that is the case, it is possible that they might be ready to skate by Sunday with the potential of reaching about 2 inches given the weather forecast .

          It is supposed to be a bit more breezy today and tonight so the next best chance for new bodies of water to freeze will be Saturday night when it is projected to be quite cold in most spots, (especially in the north )and calm as well. it would be very helpful for folks who follow this list to report if you see a body of water that has at least skimmed over either today or Sunday morning and that will allow folks from afar to do the math in terms of how fast it might freeze up. you do not have to be an ice expert to report valuable information on the listServe, knowing when ice has skimmed over a body of water for the first time is easy to see and super valuable information for everybody . Reporting whether snow has fallen in your area is also very valuable and does not require you to have expert ice knowledge.

          Another factor in our favor, is that some of the mid depth bodies of water that had not completed their temperature cycle during the last freeze up should be ready to go at this point. many of these deeper lakes and ponds also have the advantage of not having significant current flow which is a big factor inhibiting ice growth in some of the more shallow bodies of water that typically freeze first (a particular issue right now, as the water table is high with all the rain). 

          In summary, report any skimmed over bodies of water that you see today or Sunday morning. There might be some thin ice-skating possible on Sunday. The most likely day for thicker ice to skate on will probably be Wednesday as ponds and lakes that set up on Saturday night should be fairly thick by then, still probably under 3 inches but maybe just around 3 inches. Of course, none of this matters if the current weather forecast doesn’t hold! 

[Matt Steinberg]

Thanks Evan. It is disappointing to hear about Long and Beaver Ponds current states but what a great early season run. I went up to check Smith Pond at 1700 feet in Enfield, NH this am. It was 20 degrees with a light wind. The pond was 50 % covered by almost 1inch of ice  before the storm and now is wide open with only very small NE facing coves skimmed over with paper thin ice.  I will check it again tomorrow 

Matt

On Fri, Dec 9, 2022, 7:44 AM Evan Perkins <evanwpe...@gmail.com> wrote:

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "NHNordicSkating" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to nhnordicskati...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/nhnordicskating/CAGhmPWVvo3v_V-QhRV2%3DBaXK45jLt3ioSaDT6D1OuvHTLdRseA%40mail.gmail.com.

[diana hanks]

Thank you Evan for that report. My plans this weekend are to go to the oval in Lake Placid tomorrow, and then poke and hopefully skate Long Pond on Sunday morning. Morning is when to go, because snow is in the forecast for later in the day.

On my way home from the oval on Saturday, I can check Lincoln Pond, and Russett Pond in the Adirondacks . Also, I drive right by Cascade Lakes,  just before coming into Lake Placid.

I will report any sightings of skim ice.

Diana

Sent from my iPhone

On Dec 9, 2022, at 8:06 AM, Matt Steinberg <fios...@gmail.com> wrote:



You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "VTNordicskating" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to vtnordicskati...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/vtnordicskating/CAEBbUHWyL44hgZ7um51iGfMop-DMVWnf%2BSmW79yo_STRSJWRcw%40mail.gmail.com.

[Evan Perkins]

I did some scouting on my deliveries to Montpelier today. Molly’s Falls reservoir in Marshfield was partially skimmed in the northwest bay, as well as the whole northern half of the main body of the reservoir, looking south there were large areas of open water as the north wind has more access to that part of the reservoir. When I say partially skimmed, I mean that they were still some holes in places , some of them quite large .if this ice which I saw at around 1 o’clock held throughout the day, there’s a good chance that it could completely skim over in those areas that were partially skimmed by morning making this ice potentially good Skating by Monday albeit thin.

       Joe’s pond had some areas that had skimmed over in the night, but for the most part it had been blown open by the north wind, so that pond will have to wait for another night, maybe tonight maybe tomorrow night.

      Cattle pond in Groton State Forest was about 2/3 skimmed over with some sections of thick or older ice, hopefully it will completely skim over by morning.

      Ewell pond on Peacham Danville Road in Peacham was completely skimmed over at around 130. I suspect that this will hold even with the wind today and should be one and a quarter inches thick by morning and most likely 2+ inches by Sunday morning. 

        Symes pond in Ryegate Vermont was still open, although it had partially skimmed but the wind got to it.

        I posted another report onKeiser pond in Danville, read that for details.

         I suspect there are many other wind protected ponds that either held over the old ice and will be good to skate tomorrow, or that skimmed last night, and will be good to skate on Sunday. Looking forward to hearing more reports from the northeast kingdom, particularly all the lakes in the Hardwick Woodbury area lots of potential up there. 

[Evan Perkins]

I got word from a friend that as of this afternoon, both long pond and Beaver Pond were still open water for the most part.

On Fri, Dec 9, 2022 at 7:43 AM Evan Perkins <evanwpe...@gmail.com> wrote: