MF Global Currency Report, June 22
Shah, Vikas (IND Int)
Market Outlook:
Spot USDINR has opened at 44.82 from 44.84 Tuesday. USDINR could trade between 44.70-44.85-44.90. At the session start, rupee could benefit from improved risk appetite, following positive developments on Greece front. USD was trading weak against majors and Asian units, following reports that Greek PM Papandreou had won the confidence vote. Such a vote improves, Greece government's chances to push through new austerity measures totaling 78 billion euros next week.
On domestic front, ratings agency Fitch, has maintained India's short-term foreign currency rating at F3 and the country ceiling at BBB-. Fitch said that despite the prospect of a slow down in GDP growth in short term (with GDP expected to grow at 7.70% in FY11-12 from 8.5% last year), the country's medium term prospects remained good, with GDP growth seen at 8%. It also pointed out that the government's renewed commitment to bring about structural reforms were a positive, as was the Reserve Bank of India's continued strong push for monetary tightening to tackle inflation.
In other developments, markets are also likely to focus on India Meteorological Department's second long range forecast for SW monsoon 2011, issued. India's weather agency has cut the rainfall forecast to 95% of long range period average from 98% in its first forecast. With this in background there will hopes that the rainfall gets fairly distributed, to support crops. As this could have a bearing on overall kharif production, agricultural sector's contribution to overall GDP and inflation.
Technical trade outlook:
USDINR: Support at 44.7, 44.48, 44.2 Resistance at 45.2, 46.01. Expect range trading between 44.7 to 45.2
EURINR: Support at 62.9, 62 Resistance 64.2, 64.7, 65.1. In a consolidation trend between 63 to 65.5, for the day initial declines to hold at 63.9 and trade firm
GBPINR: Support at 71.8, 71 Resistance at 73.3, 73.75. Further weakness to stall at 71.8 and trade higher towards 73.3
JPYINR: Support at 55.3, 54.68, 53.9 Resistance at 56.22, 56.9, 57.5. Close above 56.22 will make for higher levels failing which trend to remain sideways in range to 54.68
EURUSD: Support at 1.431, 1.425, 1.412 Resistance at 1.444, 1.460. Initial declines seen to 1.431 and trade range to 1.444 for the day, however only a close above 1.444 to attract strong buying interest. While upside remains capped at 1.444 expect weak trend to prevail
DISCLAIMER:
Please be advised that effective 1st May 2009 our email ids have changed. Please note the new email ids and update your records accordingly.
*****************************************************************************************************************************************
This email was sent by MF Global Sify Securities India Pvt. Ltd. (MFGSSIPL) / MF Global Capital India Pvt. Ltd. (MFGCapIPL) / MF Global (India) Pvt. Ltd. (MFGIPL) / MF Global Commodities India Pvt. Ltd. (MFGComIPL) / MF Global Centralised Services India Pvt. Ltd. (MFGCSIPL) / MF Global Capital Services India Pvt. Ltd. (MFGCSIPL) / MF Global Middle East DMCC (MFGME) a member of the MF Global (collectively 'MFG'). For more information please visit our website: http://www.mfglobal.in. This message may contain financial product advice. Any such advice does not take into account your particular financial objectives, situation or needs. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this email are not given or endorsed by us unless otherwise indicated.MFG does not warrant the correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. The contents of this electronic communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, commodity, or derivative including foreign exchange. The information is intended solely for the personal and confidential use of the recipient of this electronic communication. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any use, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited and you are requested to return this message to the sender immediately and delete all copies from your system. All electronic communication may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. At various times, MFG or its affiliates may have positions in and effect transactions in securities or other financial instruments referred to herein. Opinions expressed herein are statements only of the date indicated and are not given or endorsed by MFG unless otherwise indicated by an authorized representative. Due to the electronic nature of electronic communication, there is a risk that the information contained in this message has been modified. Consequently, MFG cannot guarantee that messages or attachments are virus free, do not contain malicious code or are compatible with your electronic systems and MFG does not accept liability in respect of viruses, malicious code or any related problems that you may experience. Trading in futures, securities, commodities, options or other derivatives, foreign exchange and OTC products entails significant risks, which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Please contact your Relationship Manager for more information on these risks. Past performance of actual trades or strategies cited herein is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Privacy policy available upon request.
GENERAL ADVICE WARNING:
Please note that any advice given by MFG staff is deemed to be GENERAL advice, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs and MFG will not be held responsible for any losses on such advice. Therefore at all times you should consider the appropriateness of the advice before you act further.