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As the global climate changes, rising sea levels, combined with high tides, storms and flooding, put coastal and island communities increasingly at risk. Protection can be achieved by building dikes or seawalls and by maintaining natural features like mangroves or coral reefs. Communities can also adjust by reclaiming land from the sea and adapting buildings to cope with floods. However, all measures have their limits, and once these are reached people may ultimately have to retreat. Choices made today influence how coastal ecosystems and communities can respond to sea level rise (SLR) in the future. Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would not just reduce risks, but also open up more adaptation options.
For those unable to afford protection, accommodation or advance measures, or when such measures are no longer viable or effective, retreat becomes inevitable. Millions of people living on low-lying islands face this prospect, including inhabitants of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), of some densely populated but less intensively developed deltas, of rural coastal villages and towns, and of Arctic communities who already face melting sea ice and unprecedented changes in weather. The resultant impacts on distinctive cultures and ways of life could be devastating. Difficult trade-offs are therefore inevitable when making social choices about rising sea level. Institutionalising processes that lead to fair and just outcomes is challenging, but vitally important.
Choices being made now about how to respond to SLR profoundly influence the trajectory of future exposure and vulnerability to SLR. If concerted emissions mitigation is delayed, risks will progressively increase as SLR accelerates. Prospects for global climate-resilience and sustainable development therefore depend in large part on coastal nations, cities and communities taking urgent and sustained locally-appropriate action to mitigate GHG emissions and adapt to SLR
This chapter assesses past and future contributions to global, regional and extreme sea level changes, associated risk to low-lying islands, coasts, cities, and settlements, and response options and pathways to resilience and sustainable development along the coast.
Coastal ecosystems are already impacted by the combination of SLR, other climate-related ocean changes, and adverse effects from human activities on ocean and land (high confidence). Attributing such impacts to SLR, however, remains challenging due to the influence of other climate-related and non-climatic drivers such as infrastructure development and human-induced habitat degradation (high confidence). Coastal ecosystems, including saltmarshes, mangroves, vegetated dunes and sandy beaches, can build vertically and expand laterally in response to SLR, though this capacity varies across sites (high confidence). These ecosystems provide important services that include coastal protection and habitat for diverse biota. However, as a consequence of human actions that fragment wetland habitats and restrict landward migration, coastal ecosystems progressively lose their ability to adapt to climate-induced changes and provide ecosystem services, including acting as protective barriers (high confidence). 4.3.2.3
A diversity of adaptation responses to coastal impacts and risks have been implemented around the world, but mostly as a reaction to current coastal risk or experienced disasters (high confidence). Hard coastal protection measures (dikes, embankments, sea walls and surge barriers) are widespread, providing predictable levels of safety in northwest Europe, East Asia, and around many coastal cities and deltas. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is continuing to gain traction worldwide, providing multiple co-benefits, but there is still low agreement on its cost and long-term effectiveness. Advance, which refers to the creation of new land by building into the sea (e.g., land reclamation), has a long history in most areas where there are dense coastal populations. Accommodation measures, such as early warning systems (EWS) for ESL events, are widespread. Retreat is observed but largely restricted to small communities or carried out for the purpose of creating new wetland habitat. 4.4.2.3, 4.4.2.4, 4.4.2.5
Sea level rise is not globally uniform and varies regionally. Thermal expansion, ocean dynamics and land ice loss contributions will generate regional departures of about 30% around the GMSL rise. Differences from the global mean can be greater than 30% in areas of rapid vertical land movements, including those caused by local anthropogenic factors such as groundwater extraction (high confidence). Subsidence caused by human activities is currently the most important cause of relative sea level rise (RSL) change in many delta regions. While the comparative importance of climate-driven RSL rise will increase over time, these findings on anthropogenic subsidence imply that a consideration of local processes is critical for projections of sea level impacts at local scales (high confidence). 4.2.1.6, 4.2.2.4
The expected impacts of SLR on coastal ecosystems over the course of the century include habitat contraction, loss of functionality and biodiversity, and lateral and inland migration. Impacts will be exacerbated in cases of land reclamation and where anthropogenic barriers prevent inland migration of marshes and mangroves and limit the availability and relocation of sediment (high confidence). Under favourable conditions, marshes and mangroves have been found to keep pace with fast rates of SLR (e.g., >10 mm yr-1), but this capacity varies significantly depending on factors such as wave exposure of the location, tidal range, sediment trapping, overall sediment availability and coastal squeeze (high confidence). 4.3.3.5.1
Despite the large uncertainties about post 2050 SLR, adaptation decisions can be made now, facilitated by using decision analysis methods specifically designed to address uncertainty (high confidence). These methods favour flexible responses (i.e., those that can be adapted over time) and periodically adjusted decisions (i.e., adaptive decision making). They use robustness criteria (i.e., effectiveness across a range of circumstances) for evaluating alternative responses instead of standard expected utility criteria (high confidence). One example is adaptation pathway analysis, which has emerged as a low-cost tool to assess long-term coastal responses as sequences of adaptive decisions in the face of dynamic coastal risk characterised by deep uncertainty (medium evidence, high agreement). The range of SLR to be considered in decisions depends on the risk tolerance of stakeholders, with stakeholders whose risk tolerance is low also considering SLR higher than the likely range. 4.1, 4.4.4.3
Adaptation experience to date demonstrates that using a locally appropriate combination of decision analysis, land use planning, public participation and conflict resolution approaches can help to address the governance challenges faced in responding to SLR (high confidence). Effective SLR responses depend, first, on taking a long-term perspective when making short-term decisions, explicitly accounting for uncertainty of locality-specific risks beyond 2050 (high confidence), and building governance capabilities to tackle the complexity of SLR risk (medium evidence, high agreement). Second, improved coordination of SLR responses across scales, sectors and policy domains can help to address SLR impacts and risk (high confidence). Third, prioritising consideration of social vulnerability and equity underpins efforts to promote fair and just climate resilience and sustainable development (high confidence) and can be helped by creating safe community arenas for meaningful public deliberation and conflict resolution (medium evidence, high agreement). Finally, public awareness and understanding about SLR risks and responses can be improved by drawing on local, indigenous and scientific knowledge systems, together with social learning about locality-specific SLR risk and response potential (high confidence). 4.4.4.2, 4.4.5, Table 4.9
This chapter assesses the literature published since the AR5 on past and future contributions to global, regional and ESL changes, associated risk to low-lying islands, coasts, cities and settlements, and response options and pathways to resilience and sustainable development along the coast. The chapter follows the risk framework of AR5, in which risk is assessed in terms of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (Cross-Chapter Box 1 Chapter 1; Box 4.1), and is structured as follows (Figure 4.1):
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