Michael Tatarski's Vietnam on Substack.
Carl Robinson
From: Vietnam Weekly <vietna...@substack.com>
Date: Fri, Jul 19, 2024 at 8:02 AM
Subject: Pork-Fueled Inflation Fears
To: <robinso...@gmail.com>
Good morning! Hello to all new readers, and welcome to the latest edition of the Vietnam Weekly, written by Ho Chi Minh City-based reporter Mike Tatarski. The Friday newsletter is always free to read. For paying subscribers, I published an article on VinFast’s big North Carolina factory delay, Indonesia plant groundbreaking, and continued reliance on related companies for sales. Upgrading to a paid subscription gets you access to all future weekly exclusive articles and the newsletter archive dating back to 2018. Group subscriptions are available at a 30% discount per reader. Editor’s note: I had already scheduled this for publication when highly unusual news appeared in state media: the Politburo announced an “update” on the health status of General Secretary Nguyễn Phú Trọng. The update said nothing about Trọng’s health other than that he is receiving treatment and stepped back from his official duties. Meanwhile, President Tô Lâm will “manage the workload of the Party Central Committee, the Politburo and the Secretariat.” I asked Nguyen Khac Giang of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute about this, and he explained it is normal: “Appointing Tô Lâm as interim General Secretary is a standard protocol, given his position as number two in the Politburo's hierarchy. This already happened in 1986 when Trường Chinh took on the interim role after Lê Duẩn.” Trọng, 80, has been ill for some time and had several long stretches without any public appearances this year. This admission indicates that something is seriously wrong, as the health of high-level leaders is considered a state secret. In a further hint, the Politburo awarded the Gold Star Order, Vietnam’s highest honor, to Trọng yesterday. Other recipients include Võ Nguyên Giáp, Lê Duẩn, Fidel Castro, and Kim Il Sung. More to come on this, I’m sure. Back to regularly scheduled programming: A new episode of The Vietnam Weekly Podcast drops Monday morning on all major podcast platforms. There won’t be a newsletter next Friday as I’ll be on a cycling trip in central Vietnam.
On to the news. Pricey Pork Reuters reported this week that a government document dated July 14th shared concerns that the spread of African swine fever (ASF) could pressure domestic inflation. “The risk of wider spread of the disease is very high, and it can affect food supplies, consumer prices and the environment," the wire service quoted the document saying. Over 42,000 infected pigs have been culled this year, roughly five times more than the same period in 2023. A total of 660 ASF outbreaks in 44 provinces and cities (out of 63) have been detected compared to 208 at this point last year. According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, ASF “is a highly contagious and deadly swine disease…[it] doesn’t infect people, but it is readily passed from one pig to another by direct contact with bodily fluids from an infected pig.” On Monday, Deputy Prime Minister Trần Lưu Quang issued a dispatch ordering all levels of the public and private sectors “to strictly implement measures to prevent and control African swine fever as the disease has spread widely across many localities.” Higher pork prices due to a reduced supply of pigs last month helped drive the consumer price index up, with food prices increasing 3.23% against June 2023. A year ago the Vietnamese government approved the commercial use of two domestically developed ASF vaccines, the first of their kind globally. In October one of the vaccine producers signed export agreements with companies in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, and India, even as some livestock companies in Vietnam were unconvinced of the efficacy. In December, the World Organisation for Animal Health warned that more ASF vaccine testing was needed generally. ASF can severely disrupt the US$250 billion global pork industry - from 2018 to 2019, an enormous outbreak in China, the world’s largest pig producer, caused about US$100 billion in losses. The Poisoning I assume everyone has already seen this story - it’s received ample international coverage and wall-to-wall attention from domestic media. On Tuesday, an employee of the luxury Grand Hyatt Erawan Bangkok found six bodies in a room at the hotel - four Vietnamese nationals and two Vietnamese-Americans. Rumors of a shooting were quickly dismissed as Thai police investigated (the FBI got involved as well given the American presence), and the cause of all six deaths turned out to be cyanide poisoning. Sherine Chong, one of the Vietnamese-Americans, has been identified as the perpetrator. She died as well in what was apparently a quintuple murder-suicide. CNN quoted Deputy Metropolitan Police Commissioner Noppasin Poonsawat saying “One of the relatives said one of the deceased was an investment agent and all (the deceased) invested, but the business was not going as expected. They made an appointment to discuss the matter in Thailand.” Investigators say Chong borrowed about 10 million Thai baht (almost US$280,000) from two of the victims to invest in a Japanese hospital project that was canceled. The five victims - one of whom was a well-known makeup artist - had sued Chong and planned to meet in court in Japan in two weeks. Whatever happened in the hotel room, things went badly and Chong reportedly ordered tea from room service and prepared it herself while mixing in cyanide. We’ll likely learn more in the coming days, and this has generated intense interest in Vietnam. Incredibly, this isn’t the only recent story involving multiple cyanide-linked murders. On July 5th police in Đồng Nai Province arrested a woman suspected of poisoning her 18-year-old nephew, who survived. The woman then confessed to murdering her husband, a niece, and a different nephew over the last 10 months using cyanide. Somehow nobody suspected foul play until the most recent incident. The Banned Singer The singer Đàm Vĩnh Hưng was banned from performing or releasing any new music for nine months and fined VND27.5 million (US$1,087) for wearing “inappropriate outfits adorned with strange accessories and badges” during a concert in Ho Chi Minh City two months ago. Hung wore a military-style uniform during the concert and you can see some of the badges in question here - one allegedly resembles a badge issued by the government of South Vietnam, while another had the phrase ‘Marine Semper fi,’ a shortening of the U.S. Marine Corps motto. After the concert, Hưng posted on social media saying the badges were simply decorative while apologizing. I’m not sure how offended people are by the Marine Corps motto, but displaying imagery even remotely similar to something from South Vietnam is a major red line. Data Corner:
Extra Links: Notes on Hanoi (Movable Worlds) Facial scan to buy banh mi? That’s not too far off in Vietnam (Tech in Asia - $) Rights groups urge Thailand not to extradite Vietnamese activist, saying he’s at risk if sent home (AP) Vietnam is the master of neutrality in a polarized world (Nikkei Asia) The ‘Second China Shock’ and its Implications for Southeast Asia (Fulcrum) Have a great weekend!
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