VSP Update

[plumb....@gmail.com]

It recently occurred to me that although we have written load’s of material about population growth we have never addressed the specific issue of why Vermonters should be concerned about population size and growth so I have drafted the below paper. I will later modify the paper to send out as an editorial for World Population Awareness Day on July 11. I would love  some feedback on the content or edits. Does what I say make sense? Do you think a population size of two-thirds of what it is now is what is sustainable? Is it going too far to say that? Please send your comments directly to plumb....@gmail.com and not a reply to this email which would go to the VSP list if approved.

 

Regarding John Taylor’s comments about the GPI indicator’s I am sure he is correct in stating that they are general and need refinement to be more measurable. That is what the Gund Institute will be working on.

 

Thanks for your help.

George
True sustainability will only be achieved with population stabilization.
www.vspop.org
http://groups.google.com/group/vermonters-for-sustainable-population

 

Should Vermonter’s be Concerned About Our State’s Population Size?

By George Plumb – Draft of June 25, 2012

 

Summary

Population growth is not only a world problem and a U.S. problem; it is also a Vermont problem.

It is a problem for our long term sustainability, our unique quality of life, preserving the environment, social justice, the fact that we can’t separate our population from the rest of the world, spirituality, and helping to prevent the disasters of global warming, loss of biodiversity, and economic stress. It is estimated that for long term sustainability and quality of life Vermont’s population should be about two-thirds the size of its present population or about 400,000 instead of over 600,000.

Yes, We Should Be Concerned

 

Because Vermont is a rural state and one of the least densely populated in the U.S. many Vermonters feel that population size and growth are not an issue here. However, when viewed objectively population growth should be a major concern for discussion and action for the following reasons.

 

Long Term Sustainability. World oil production has peaked and global warming is here. We should be very concerned about what number of people is a sustainable population for Vermont. Without the cheap fossil fuels that now make possible almost all of the food we consume, most of the goods and services we receive, and virtually all of our economy, Vermont certainly does not have a sustainable population today. Before the advent of cheap fossil fuels Vermont’s population was about half of what it is now and that was when 70% of the land was cleared and devoted to farming. Alternative renewable energy will make up some of the difference but it is not the silver bullet that is going to meet all of our energy needs. My best guess is, given our current rate of consumption and the fact that people seem very reluctant to significantly reduce it, a sustainable population size is about two-thirds of the current 626,000 and perhaps even less.

 

Quality of Life. Vermonters value their rural landscape, small communities, and open and accessible government. However, that has declined dramatically since the state’s population growth started to rise in the 1960’s. Sprawl, traffic congestion, crowded public outdoor recreation spaces, posting of land, and real estate prices raising so much the average Vermonter can no longer afford a summer cottage, hunting camp or a fifty acres of land as they used to, have significantly diminished the quality of life for many.

 

Preserving the Environment. According to most scientific data Vermont’s environment has deteriorated significantly since the current population boom began in the 1960’s.  Approximately 200,000 acres of land have been developed (actually destroyed because there is no biocapacity left) and Vermont’s forest cover is now in decline for the first time in over a century! These are just two of the indicators available to measure the decline in our environment and quality of life.

 

For more information on Vermont’s environmental trends one should view the 2008 Disappearing Vermont Report and the 2011Vermont Environmental Trends Report. Both are on the Vermonters for Sustainable Population website, www.vspop.org. Population growth is the underlying cause of every one of our environmental problems, and it is long past time that we started to deal with the cause of the problems and not just the symptoms, an approach that is clearly not working.

 

Social Justice. Because Vermont imports almost 100% of everything we use and export nearly 100% of our air pollution and at least 50% of our solid waste we create injustice for people living elsewhere as we take and pollute their resources. Vermont also has a surplus of labor in most sectors, and rising population size depresses incomes and thus increases poverty.

 

We Are Part of the World. Our population adds to the world’s population and the world’s problems. We can’t say “Oh, we are only a population of 626,000 compared to the world’s seven billion so our population size doesn’t matter. Of course it matters, and to not acknowledge this truth is not fair.

 

Spirituality. This word is hardly ever mentioned, but spirituality has much to do with what living in Vermont is about whether we practice a formal religion or not. It is our connection to nature and other people that is enabled by our small size and that really makes Vermont different.

 

Preventing Collapse!  Several different scientific groups and authors have said that population growth is one of the major challenges facing the earth and that in fact we are headed for disaster.

Among two of the most recent are the following.

 

The Global Network of Science Academies (IAP), comprised of 105 national science academies, released a statement on population and consumption, which cites population growth and unsustainable consumption, together, as two of the greatest challenges facing the world. You can read the statement here: http://www.interacademies.net/File.aspx?id=19193 .

 

An interdisciplinary group of 22 scientists, combining paleontological evidence with ecological modeling, has concluded that the earth appears headed toward catastrophic and irreversible environmental changes. Their report, in the June 7 issue of the journal Nature, describes an exponentially increasing rate of species extinctions, extreme climate fluctuations, and other threats that together risk a level of upheaval not seen since the large-scale extinctions 65 million years ago that killed off the dinosaurs.

See: http://chronicle.com/article/Earth-Is-Headed-for-Disaster/132165/

 

Scientists warned about global warming some thirty years ago and unfortunately we didn’t start addressing the issue until the change already started.  Are we also not going to heed the warnings about population growth? Don’t we Vermonters have a moral responsibility to help prevent this disaster and maybe even collapse?

 

The Time to Discuss and Act on this Issue was Forty Years Ago!

In 1973 the Vermont Natural Resources Council published the Population Policy Report, also on the VSP web site. It stated that, “We must determine Vermont’s carrying capacity, then we must estimate the number of people that can live here so that every Vermonter has access to a life of quality and he can afford. That population would be the optimum population and far below the carrying capacity.” That was recognized almost forty years ago!

 

Some people say that Vermont’s population rate is growing at a small percentage and therefore we shouldn’t be concerned. However, it is not the percentage but the actual numbers that matter. In the last decade Vermont’s population grew by 17,000. Although Vermont’s percentage population rate has slowed there could very well be a huge surge of climate refugees as global warming makes life more difficult in our coastal areas and southern states. By Vermont taking a lead on this issue hopefully it would encourage other states and the U.S. as a whole to address population growth also.

 

For information on what to do about population growth, view the commentary Solving the Population Problem in the comments section of the VSP web site.