Inthe context of the European Chips Act, the European Commission is considering complementary but distinct initiatives to reinforce EU sovereignty and leadership in the automotive value chain on the vehicle of the future, addressing, on the one hand, an open automotive hardware platform, and on the other hand, an open software-defined vehicle ecosystem driven by European actors.
On 29 November 2022 and 7 March 2023, DG CONNECT hosted workshops on software-defined vehicles with key players from the EU automotive industry to align on key challenges, discuss how the industry could collaborate on non-differentiating, pre-competitive software development, and how such an initiative could be supported and driven at the European level. The industry associations VDA, PFA, and ANFIA contributed to their organisation and McKinsey & Company supported their preparation and moderation.
Based on the discussions during the workshops and on subsequent input from participants, a Concept Paper was prepared summarising the key challenges, potential scope and form of a collaboration, and role that the European Commission could play to support it. It shows the progress made towards a convergence of views and highlights the areas where further discussions are required. It thus does not necessarily reflect the views of all workshop participants nor of the European Commission.
The Concept Paper shows that a joint effort could support the development of standardised software building blocks and interfaces in the vehicle and at its edge, complemented by software development and validation toolsets. Key success factors are a strong open-source strategy, reference implementations and supporting wide and rapid adoption. The initiative could reinforce the coordination between existing alliances by orchestrating distributed developments. Close links must be ensured with any EU initiative on an open automotive hardware platform. The European Commission could act as a neutral convener and support joint efforts with dedicated EU funding.
As vehicles become autonomous, electric, connected and service-orientated, software and digital hardware are playing an increasingly important role in managing their operations and enabling new features. In future software-defined vehicles" the value of software and electronic hardware will surpass the mechanical parts. The software platform (e.g. operating systems, middleware, etc.) between hardware and applications, including the integration with the cloud, plays a key role in this new paradigm.
These transformations are putting the leadership and competitiveness of the European automotive industry at risk. The next few years are critical to close the gap with new non-EU OEMs and tech companies. Software complexity is rising sharply, driven by more complex functionalities and redundant efforts to adapt to different platforms. The whole industry is facing a talent shortage. So far, EU companies have focused on developing their own technology platforms, impeding efficiencies when such investments replicate efforts on elements that are not differentiating and visible to the customer. A rising number of partnerships and alliances however shows a growing openness to join forces.
Drawing from the conclusions of the 29 November workshop and follow-up consultations, a Focus Topic on software-defined vehicle was proposed, approved and launched under the Key Digital Technologies Joint Undertaking to support first related actions. A call for two first actions closed on 3 May 2023. Discussions on the initiative will continue in the coming months and progress will be reflected in updates of the Concept Paper.
Copper is the mineral most fundamental to the human future because it is essential to electricity generation, distribution, and storage. Copper availability and demand determine the rate of electrification, which is the foundation of current climate policy. Many studies have raised concerns that copper supply cannot meet the copper demands of both the green energy transition and equitable global development, but the seemingly universal presumption persists that the copper needed for the green transition will somehow be available. This need not be the case for even the first step of vehicle electrification.
This paper addresses this issue by projecting copper supply and demand from 2018 to 2050 and placing both in the historical context of copper mine output. Discussion is focused on a single diagram that illustrates the unprecedented nature of the copper mining challenge and ways to reduce copper demand.
Just to meet business-as-usual trends, 115% more copper must be mined in the next 30 years than has been mined historically until now. To electrify the global vehicle fleet requires bringing into production 55% more new mines than would otherwise be needed. On the other hand, hybrid electric vehicle manufacture would require negligible extra copper mining.
The figure summarizes projections of both demand and supply in a fashion that has not been done before and we discuss aspects of copper exploration that have not seen much discussion. Our main purpose, however, is to communicate the magnitude of the copper mining challenge to the broader public that is less familiar with upstream resource issues. To this end, the discussion is brief, non-technical, and focused on a single metal, diagram, and issue (vehicle electrification). All relevant methods and data are concisely provided in supplemental material.
We hope this will promote discussion and formulation of alternative policies to be certain the developing world can catch up with the developed world while global initiatives advance with the green energy transition.
(A) Historic and projected mined copper production (orange and teal-colored curves). The refinery output that includes recycling and equals the copper supply is shown by the dark blue curve and green curve. The green curve assumes a recycling rate equal to that in 2018. The dark blue solid curve assumes recycling rate increases along the trends of the past 20 years to 2050 and then is constant. Qdate indicates the tonnes of copper mined up to a particular date and equals the area under the teal curve up to that date. The copper production rates (mine or refinery) are also shown. Qt at the bottom right is the estimated total minable copper resource.
The International Energy Forum (IEF) is the world's largest international organization of energy ministers from 72 countries and includes both producing and consuming nations. The IEF has a broad mandate to examine all energy issues, including oil and gas, clean and renewable energy, sustainability, energy transitions and new technologies, data transparency, and energy access. Through the Forum and its associated events, officials, industry executives, and other experts engage in a dialogue of increasing importance to global energy security and sustainability.
After doctoral research on the viscosity of the earth's mantle at Princeton University, Cathles spent periods at Kennecott Copper Corporation's Ledgemont Laboratory, The Pennsylvania State University, and the Chevron Oil Field Research Laboratory before joining the faculty of Cornell University in 1986 and becoming professor emeritus in 2018. Larry co-directed the Global Basins Research Network, was the 24th Hugh Exton McKinstry Memorial Lecturer (1989) at Harvard, and the 2008 Adrian Smith Lecturer at the University of Waterloo. He was the 2011 Distinguished Lecturer and the 2021 Penrose Gold Medal recipient of the Society of Economic Geologists and is a fellow of the American Association of the Advancement of Science. He was a leader of the oil and gas thrust of the Cornell KAUST program, and a Director of Cornell's Institute for the Study of the Continents. He has published over 140 peer-reviewed publications and a book: "The Viscosity or the Earth's Mantle".
Adam is Arthur F. Thurnau Professor of Earth & Environmental Sciences at the University of Michigan and a Fellow of the Society of Economic Geologists. His research focuses on the geology and geochemistry of mineral deposits that provide society with copper and other critical minerals. Adam has led research programs on all seven continents. He has co-authored the textbooks Mineral Resources, Economics and the Environment, which is considered an authoritative source for beginners and experts, and Earth Materials: Components of a Diverse Planet. He has published 100 peer-reviewed research articles and has received awards for his transformative approaches to education including the University of Michigan Teaching Innovation Prize and the Distinguished Teaching Professor from the University of Nevada Las Vegas. He regularly delivers lectures to the general public and experts on all aspects of the energy transition including a TEDx talk. He is the 2024 Society of Economic Geologists Distinguished Lecturer.
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We provide the first at-scale estimate of electric vehicle (EV) home charging. Previous estimates are either based on surveys that reach conflicting conclusions, or are extrapolated from a small, unrepresentative sample of households with dedicated EV meters. We combine billions of hourly electricity meter measurements with address-level EV registration records from California households. The average EV increases overall household load by 2.9 kilowatt-hours per day, less than half the amount assumed by state regulators. Our results imply that EVs travel 5,300 miles per year, under half of the US fleet average. This raises questions about transportation electrification for climate policy.
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