Re: [vaccination-respectful-debate] Re: Vaccination rates go down, disease and suffering increase... again.

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Peter McCarthy

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Mar 19, 2013, 3:11:14 AM3/19/13
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John: facts.
Tristan: fantasy.

I think this there's a theme here...

On 19 Mar 2013 16:56, "punter" <trista...@hotmail.com> wrote:
Forget about our grandchildren. In 1000 years time every single history class on the planet will spend all its time wondering how on earth the public could be persuaded to offer up its children to have poisons injected into them in order to keep them "healthy". And kids in kindergarten will look at the hopelessly circular reasoning used to feed the lie and laugh.

On Tuesday, 19 March 2013 10:27:53 UTC+11, JC wrote:
"There have now been 179 cases of measles in Mid and West Wales, 55 cases in North Wales and seven cases in South East Wales.  Ninety-seven of the cases in Mid and West Wales are linked to four outbreaks in the South Pembrokeshire, Llanelli, Burry Port and Neath Port Talbot areas, the other 82 are sporadic cases across seven county areas.  The majority of the North Wales cases – 52 – are in the Llandudno area and are linked to outbreaks in two schools, Ysgol Ffordd Dyffryn and Ysgol John Bright, while the other three cases are sporadic cases in three counties.

...

Vaccination rates, including for MMR, among pupils starting school are between 92% and 98% and in the first six months of 2008 there were 135 confirmed cases of measles across the US, which has a population of 300 million.

In Wales the latest figures show that 83.4% of children have had two doses of MMR, although in Bridgend the figure is just 76%.  There were 39 cases in Wales, which has a population of three million last year and there are more than 240 cases associated with the current outbreaks."

As one of the politicians said, “Thanks to one of the most irresponsible scare stories of modern times – the completely debunked scare story that the MMR vaccine and autism are linked – we have managed in this country, through almost unprecedented collective national idiocy, to re-introduce a disease that we had all but wiped out just a few years ago.

“How on earth will we be able to explain this to our grandchildren?

“How will we justify letting one rogue physician, with one bankrupt report mobilise a handful of zealots and an irresponsible and bewildered media into releasing a potentially fatal disease on our nation’s children?

“Yet that is exactly what we’ve done as a society.”

Food for thought.  Vaccination rates go down, disease goes up.  Again.  And yet I thought that Greg Beattie's graphs told us that the diseases were on the way out anyway?  Aren't they all just naturally falling?  Vaccination does nothing?  And yet when vaccination rates go down, diseases reappear.

“How will we justify letting one rogue physician, with one bankrupt report mobilise a handful of zealots and an irresponsible and bewildered media into releasing a potentially fatal disease on our nation’s children?

John

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Tasha David

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Mar 19, 2013, 5:37:55 AM3/19/13
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We also have vaccination rates being optimal and still outbreaks occurring, so you can not assume that low vaccination rates will always go hand in hand with high disease rates, just look at Whooping Cough here in Australia as well as in the US?

AN EXPLOSIVE POINT-SOURCE MEASLES OUTBREAK IN A HIGHLY VACCINATED POPULATION

MODES OF TRANSMISSION AND RISK FACTORS FOR DISEASE

“In 1985, 69 secondary cases, all in one generation, occurred in an Illinois high school after exposure to a vigorously coughing Index case. The school's 1,873 students had a pre-outbreak vaccination level of 99.7% by school records.”

http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/129/1/173.short

A prolonged mumps outbreak among highly vaccinated Aboriginal people in the Kimberley region of Western Australia

https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2009/191/7/prolonged-mumps-outbreak-among-highly-vaccinated-aboriginal-people-kimberley

 

Chickenpox Outbreak in a Highly Vaccinated School Population

http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/113/3/455.abstract

 

Epidemiology of a Mumps Outbreak in a Highly Vaccinated Island Population and Use of a Third Dose of Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine for Outbreak Control- Guam 2009-2010.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23099425

 

Measles Outbreak among Vaccinated High School Students -- Illinois

Editorial Note: This outbreak demonstrates that transmission of measles can occur within a school population with a documented immunization level of 100%. This level was validated during the outbreak investigation. Previous investigations of measles outbreaks among highly immunized populations have revealed risk factors such as improper storage or handling of vaccine, vaccine administered to children under 1 year of age, use of globulin with vaccine, and use of killed virus vaccine (1-5). However, these risk factors did not adequately explain the occurrence of this outbreak.

 

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00000359.htm

 

Now this study is very important because it demonstrates how vaccinated children can have Measles yet not show the clinical symptoms which can lead to under reporting and overestimation of vaccine efficacy.

 

Mild Measles and Secondary Vaccine Failure During a Sustained Outbreak in a Highly Vaccinated Population

“A prolonged school-based outbreak of measles provided an opportunity to study "vaccine-modified" mild measles and secondary vaccine failure. Thirty-six (97%) of 37 unvaccinated patients had rash illnesses that met the Centers for Disease Control clinical case definition of measles, but 29 (15%) of 198 vaccinated patients did not, primarily because of low-grade or absent fever. Of 122 patients with seroconfirmed measles, 10 patients (all previously vaccinated) had no detectable measles-specific IgM and significantly milder illness than either vaccinated or unvaccinated patients with IgM-positive serum. Of 108 vaccinated patients with seroconfirmed measles, 17 patients (16%) had IgM-negative serology or rash illnesses that failed to meet the clinical case definition; their mean age (13 years), age at the time of vaccination, and time since vaccination did not differ from those of other vaccinated patients. The occurrence of secondary vaccine failure and vaccine-modified measles does not appear to be a major impediment to measles control in the United States but may lead to underreporting of measles cases and result in overestimation of vaccine efficacy in highly vaccinated populations.”

 

http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=381746

 

Paralysis cases soar after oral polio vaccine introduced

A new report by two Delhi pediatricians suggests that the sharp rise in childhood paralysis in India is due to the increased usage of the oral polio vaccine, a drug that was banned in the U.S. over a decade ago.

 

 http://digitaljournal.com/article/323371#ixzz211olXr1w

 

Mumps outbreak in Orthodox Jewish communities in the United States

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23113481

 

Update: Mumps Outbreak --- New York and New Jersey, June 2009--January 2010

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5905a1.htm

 

Mumps outbreak in Israel's highly vaccinated society: are two doses enough?

http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=8480501

 

Mumps outbreak in a highly vaccinated population

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022347605807267

 

Mumps outbreak in a highly vaccinated school population. Evidence for large-scale vaccination failure.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7795768

 

Sustained Transmission of Mumps in a Highly Vaccinated Population: Assessment of Primary Vaccine Failure and Waning Vaccine-Induced Immunity

http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/169/1/77.short

 

 

 


Tasha David

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Mar 20, 2013, 11:46:28 PM3/20/13
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John,

You just need to read a little further and you would understand why the title is actually right on the money...

"The highest notification rate (1816 cases per 100 000 population) was in the Aboriginal 15–19-years age group, and 92% of these patients had received at least one dose of mumps vaccine."

"Conclusion: A prolonged outbreak of mumps occurred in a well defined, highly vaccinated, predominantly young Aboriginal population in the remote Kimberley region of WA."

Here is the rundown on the vaccination levels of most of the articles

*Mumps outbreak in Guam 93% of cases vaccinated

*Measles outbreak in Illinois high school 99.7% pre outbreak rate of vaccination

“Editorial Note: This outbreak demonstrates that transmission of measles can occur within a school     population with a documented immunization level of 100%. This level was validated during the outbreak investigation. Previous investigations of measles outbreaks among highly immunized populations have revealed risk factors such as improper storage or handling of vaccine, vaccine administered to children under 1 year of age, use of globulin with vaccine, and use of killed virus vaccine (1-5). However, these risk factors did not adequately explain the occurrence of this outbreak”

*47500 NPAFP outbreak after polio vaccine is pretty self-explanatory

*Mumps outbreak in 2005 89% of cases were vaccinated with 1 dose and 8% were vaccinated with 2 doses so 97% of cases were vaccinated.

*Mumps outbreak 97% cases were vaccinated

*Mumps outbreak in Kansas 97% of cases were vaccinated

To me it seems that the titles accurately portray the content?

“Please, go on.  You're clearly pro-vaccination.”

I am finding it hard to understand why you even said this?  I thought we were talking about falling vaccination rates equaling increasing disease?





On 20 March 2013 11:01, JC <jc_bi...@yahoo.com.au> wrote:
Hi.
Firstly, please read articles you quote.  Titles are rarely the whole story.
The article on Kimberley aborigines, for example, tells us that only 67% had received at least one dose, and only 52% two doses.  Not high at all by general standards.  It also demonstrates that the disease was more common in the unvaccinated population, that it leads to serious health issues such as meningitis, two other issues that Greg denies.  Thanks for that.
For the next article, "In these 9 classrooms, 18 of 152 (12%) vaccinated students developed chickenpox, compared with 3 of 7 (43%) unvaccinated students." so being unvaccinated made you more then three times more likely to geet the disease, especially in a crowded environment like a school.  Of course there will be vaccine failures.  Nothing is 100%.
So your papers demonstrate once more that vaccination protects.  They also show that these diseases haven't magically disappeared like Greg claims they have, and that they cause serious harm.
Please, go on.  You're clearly pro-vaccination.

John Cunningham

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Mar 21, 2013, 2:55:41 AM3/21/13
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Vaccinations can and do fail. With overcrowded conditions, poor nutrition and vaccination against the wrong genotype outbreaks can occur. Also, you need to look at the date of the outbreak and the schedule as it is today. What some studies refer to as vaccinated, we wouldn't classify as vaccinated today. 

But in Wales, right now, we're not talking about a particular school or community. We're talking about a disease spreading throughout the whole population just as they did a generation ago. How many examples do you need before you'll be convinced that decreased vaccination rates lead to disease. Oh, and autism rates have also gone up in Wales, while vaccination rates go down. Go figure. 
John

Tasha David

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Mar 21, 2013, 8:29:09 PM3/21/13
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Here is information about Wales MMR vaccination coverage, it seems that uptake rates for MMR are higher than they have ever been? 

"Comment
Uptake of all routine immunisations scheduled for babies in their first year of life again exceeded 95% this quarter. Uptakes of routine immunisations in older children also showed progress toward 95%.
Although uptake rates for completed courses of MMR are higher than they have ever been in Wales, measles remains a concern. During 2012 there was a sharp increase in confirmed cases, mainly associated with school aged children and the provisional number of 116 confirmed cases in Wales during 2012 is the second highest annual total seen since before1996"

http://www2.nphs.wales.nhs.uk:8080/VaccinationsImmunisationProgsDocs.nsf/3dc04669c9e1eaa880257062003b246b/7f100c17942cc41e80257b24003c6184/$FILE/Cov12q4%20%28report105_version1a%29.pdf

And this is the MMR coverage for children reaching age 2, seems that the level is >95%

http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/Documents/457/MMR1_2y%20%28large%29.gif


A MacDonald

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Mar 22, 2013, 6:07:40 PM3/22/13
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John,
Whooping cough has been a concern in Australia recently.
You say " Vaccinations can and do fail. With overcrowded conditions, poor nutrition and vaccination against the wrong genotype outbreaks can occur"
Obviously this is not the case here, in AU, because AU glows in our high Vax uptake.
You go on further alluding to the theory of herd immunity.
Do you have scientific proof of herd immunity?
 
With the Wales example you refer to, can you specify the data which show autism rates have risen while
 
vaccination rates have fallen and are they linked? Is there a relationship? Obviously there is, otherwise you would not have quoted such. It is relevant that Wales also has a high Vax rate.
Andrew.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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John Cunningham

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Mar 24, 2013, 3:53:50 AM3/24/13
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No Andrew,
Australia has a low total population whopping cough vaccination rate. As for Wales the low vaccination rates are given. And the autism rates increase with widening diagnostic criteria, as they are doing world wide. Typical fallacies spread by the AVN Andrew. Nothing too profound. 

So Andrew on the other thread were those your comments? Emails? Was that you acting as a member of the AVN?

John

A MacDonald

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Mar 24, 2013, 6:07:11 AM3/24/13
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Ahah, I comprehend John, all your points, except the following;
1. What is Australia's Whooping Cough Vaccine uptake rate, and compared to Wales Whooping Cough Vaccine uptake rate?
2. I understood that Australia's vaccine uptake rate has increased year on year. Is this not correct for Wales as well? What statistics and evidence can you provide?
3. I don't understand your last question, regarding another thread, and if I am a member of the AVN.
You know I am a member of the AVN. What point are you trying to articulate?
 
John, I saw that you were recently quoted in a media interview. Are you a member of the Australian Skeptics, and if so, in what capacity? If not, what support do you enjoy receiving from the Australian Skeptics? Do they pay you?
Also, why do you object so much about people questioning vaccines?
I mean, it's one thing to debate, but really, your style leaves much doubt about your intention.

Tasha David

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Mar 24, 2013, 7:08:02 AM3/24/13
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John,

Are you trying to say that the whooping cough epidemic in Australia was caused by decreasing total vaccination rates?  So all the talk about the vaccine being not as effective as we would like, and the dominant strain mutating because of the change from the DTP to the DTaP is not the real reason at all? 
As for Wales did you miss the part where it says MMR vaccination rates are higher than they have ever been in Wales?  So how does that support your argument that falling vaccination rates cause disease and suffering?

John Cunningham

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Mar 24, 2013, 8:27:14 PM3/24/13
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Yes.

On 25/03/2013, at 9:39 AM, punter <trista...@hotmail.com> wrote:

"Australia has a low total population whopping cough vaccination rate. "
 
Low compared to what?  Compared to 10 years ago? 50 years ago?
 
"And the autism rates increase with widening diagnostic criteria, as they are doing world wide."
 
So there has been a change in diagnostic criteria distorting statistics on autism despite the fact that autism is, and has always been, diagnosed on symptoms. However, it is absolutely inconceivable that changes in diagnostic criteria could have distorted the statistics on so-called vaccine preventable diseases.
 
Got it.
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John Cunningham

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Mar 26, 2013, 4:25:06 AM3/26/13
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Oh look here! Tristan is answering someone else's messages!  Well done. So Tristan do you collect money to promote German New Medicine? And how could we trust your word?  After all, you promote it ad nauseum. 
John 

On 26/03/2013, at 18:54, punter <trista...@hotmail.com> wrote:

And JC's word is his bond.

On Monday, 25 March 2013 11:40:26 UTC+11, JC wrote:
Andrew, 
No, i'm not a member of Australian Skeptics, nor do I receive any money or other type of support from any organisation, including pharmaceutical companies. None. 
John 
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John Cunningham

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Apr 2, 2013, 1:53:06 AM4/2/13
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Any advice based on German New Medicine is ill considered, and lacking evidence, except for a story about possums.
John

On 02/04/2013, at 10:40 AM, punter <trista...@hotmail.com> wrote:

"And why do I object to people questioning vaccines?  I don't.  I object to people offering ill considered, poorly based and dangerous advice."
 
Could you please inform us of reasons to question vaccines that you don't believe are "ill considered, poorly based and dangerous"?
 
Or would it be fair to say that you think that any advice you disagree with on this issue is, by definition, "ill considered, poorly based and dangerous"?

On Friday, 29 March 2013 22:30:30 UTC+11, JC wrote:
So Andrew are you a paid committee member of the AVN?  Are you an official spokesperson of the organisation?
And why do I object to people questioning vaccines?  I don't.  I object to people offering ill considered, poorly based and dangerous advice.

John
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