[Fwd: Prep notes for the solar meeting]
ma...@pentlarge.org
---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Prep notes for the solar meeting
From: "Dana Dorsett" <dor...@millogic.com>
Date: Thu, June 18, 2015 11:46 am
To: ma...@pentlarge.org
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Hi Mara,
Feel free to forward this to others prior to the Friday meeting (that I can't make.)
Yehoha first showed up on my radar in this GreenTechMedia.com blog covering recent venture capital funding:
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Modest-Wave-of-VC-Funding-Rolls-in-for-Cleantech
The previous day's GreenTechMedia had also linked to this article in their daily news feed:
http://www.inc.com/david-whitford/built-from-passion-yeloha.html
The case for the Yeloha proposal:
Yeloha's proposed system is 20,800 watts, which is about 40% bigger than the 15-16,000 watt proposals from Solar Flair, SunBug, New England Clean Energy, all estimated to produce about 15-20,000kwh per year, which is about what the church uses(?) For hosting a Yeloha system the church would get 25%
of the annual ~23-24,000 kwh/year, which would (apparently) cover about 1/3 of the church's power use, for zero cash outlay, and no maintenance costs.
As a separate deal the church COULD lease some of the panels at some lower term at a guaranteed discount becoming both a Yeloha "Host"and a Yeloha "Sun Partner", but there is no obligation to do so. There may be other cheaper power purchase agreements possible with other
green-power companies over the coming if that were deemed desirable. The discount under grid-retail for Yeloha Sun Parters is not huge, but something. (Yeloha's current Sun Partner power is slightly more expensive than the three year 100% wind power purchase contract I took with with Viridian last
fall in anticiaption of the big National Grid rate hike, for instance.) But there is no need to take that step right away.
By putting up a bigger array than the church would need to cover it's own power use is putting the available space to good use, a field that would otherwise lie fallow. Taking this approach rather than buying a system sized for the church's need, there is a greater-good being served, since it's 40%
more solar power going onto the grid than a system sized purchased & owned for self-consumption.
There is a modest reduction in cooling load for the offices under the flat roof from being shaded by panels, but it also makes repairing that roof somewhat more complicated. If that roof is nearing end of life, it may be worth accelerating the replacement of the roof going under the panels. At the
same time, putting a few inches of rigid foam insulation under the new membrane is worthwhile. The foam insulation can be sourced very inexpensively using reclaimed & factory blemished foam from Green Insulation Group, which has a warehouse just a few miles away on Pullman Street (near the
Cinema North Theater) in Worcester: http://www.greeninsulationgroup.com/
The current Yeloha proposal doesn't have sufficient detail to convert directly into an instant contract. We would need to understand the liability implications, eg: if their equipment catches fire, are they insured for damages to the building? But I'm sure those issues would all be spelled out if we
decide to take the next step.
Someone would have to do the numbers on a net cash flow perspective, but since the SRECs are an unknown number the numbers will have an errror-bar range. Since there is no tax credit to be taken it wouldn't surprise me if the Yeloha deal came in comparable to or dramatically cheaper than the
purchase panel deals. Yeloha would be saving about $1500/year, and even if grid retail prices stayed flat for 20 years with NO price inflation, the net benefit over 20 years is $30,000. If there is electricity price inflation over 20 years the benefit would be larger.
The 20 year benefit estimated by New England Clean Energy's proposal last year was $29,112 benefit, and that inlcuded presumed 3.1% per year electricity price inflation AND SREC sales.
The SunBug proposal estimated a $99,464 net savings over 20 years, but that also predicated VERY aggressive electricity price inflation (more than doubling the price in the next 20 years), and fairly generous SREC income estmates. If that type of electricity price inflation occurs the Yeloha deal
still hedges for 1/3 of the church's power use, but it also become cost effective to get very aggressive about improving efficiency & conservation.
While this past winter's rate reset was a shocker, that is a temporary situation created by an over-reliance on natural gas for grid power in New England. Rates will be reset at a much lower level this summer. But as more solar & wind go onto the grid the inflationary pressures on rates subside.
The investment banking community seem to believe that renewables will induce signficant electricity rate deflation beginning sometime around 2025. (I can dig up analysis from UBA, Barclays, Citi-Group, and the National Bank of Abu Dhabi all pointing in the same direction on that, if anybody is
interested.) So any financial analysis that projects strong electricity price inflation for 20 years is likely to be inherently wrong. The inflation adusted price of electricity over the PAST 30 years shows nothing of the kind, and that was without the influence of the exponential growth in
zero-fuel renewables currently under way. (In real terms electricity pricing has fallen about 25% since 1985. See: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/ Select "Residential Electricity Prices". and adjust the width of the cursor to provide the time span you want to view.)
This means that while purchasing a system that covers 100% of the use hedges against price inflation, letting someone else take the financial risk and reaping 25% of the output for zero cash outlay is also a hedge against electricity price DE-flation, but also has some inflation hedge. Given the
rate at which solar pricing is falling and the rate at which the cumulative installed base of solar is accelerating, electricity price deflation is all but certain within the lifecycle of a solar panel. The full lifecycle cost of solar right now is less than the current residential retail rate, and
by 2025 it will likely be less than the current grid-wholesale price average. Even 3.1% price inflation assumptions seem overstated when viewed in the bigger context despite recent rate volatility, which makes the Yeloha proposal lower-risk. If electricity rates go down the cash benefit is less, but
there is no cash liability either, the way there would be with a financed & purchased system, which would be fixed for the term of the loan.
dana
ma...@pentlarge.org
Hi All -
I was very pleased that so many folks were able to get to this meeting: Aaron, Mike Peckar, June Davenport, Kim McCoy, John Odell, and Peg Gifford.
I (Mara) will contact Yeloha with a list of questions we generated (below); and I'll contact Sunbug Solar to see if their proposal from March 2014 is still available.
John will find another solar company or 2 to submit proposals to us.
We hope to have a meeting in mid August with whichever company we choose, and anyone from the congregation who's interested in this project.
We will meet again on
SUNDAY, June 28, 2015, at 7:00PM
to report answers to these questions from Yeloha, and Sunbug's response, and see who John finds.
In general we all agreed that the Yeloha idea (which Dana found) sounds good, because we get some solar power (25% of what our panels generate), it doesn't cost us anything, and we don't have to maintain the system. On the other hand, John says maintenance of a solar system is minimal and pretty easy; and Mike says that getting all of our electricity from the panels, and owning the panels ourselves, might be a good investment. And he says an endowment exists for just this kind of situation.
There was some discussion of the condition of the flat rubber roof on the classroom wing. Kim says there have been lots of repairs to it and it's probably at least 10 years old (we thought Nancy Hancock would know). It would be nice to replace it and (Dana suggests) add a couple inches of foam insulation. John said [after the meeting] that white rubber would work better for the solar panels because the silicon operates better at more moderate temperatures. Black rubber can get up to 140 degrees, which is hotter than the panels prefer.
Discussion of how nice they would look up there, and new members might be drawn to us. We can explore getting a "Green Sanctuary" status from the UUA,(like Welcoming Congregation or Accessible status)
QUESTIONS:
*How long will the agreement/contract go for? What happens at the end of that time?
*What if Yeloha goes out of business?
*What if we want to expand the building up another floor above the classroom wing, if there are panels on that flat roof?
*Can we do it if we only have panels on Fellowship Hall? Can we get panels on the east & west facing Sanctuary roof?
* Will maintenance costs always be $0, or we incur maintenance costs as the years go by?
*If the 75% (of electricity we generate with our panels) can't get sold to others, then what?
*How are you insured? Hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes sometimes happen here. Who's liable for broken panels or damage to the roof? What about lots of snow?
*Panels will add weight to the roof. Is the roof strong enough (structural integrity)?
*Do any branches need to come down?
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If you think of any more questions, let me know and I'll add them to the list.
In Anticipation - Mara
Margaret Gifford
Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2015 21:27:44 -0400
Subject: Notes from 6/19/15 Solar Panel meeting
From: ma...@pentlarge.org
To: lmck...@gmail.com; jcan...@gmail.com; Ode...@worcesterma.gov
CC: ma...@pentlarge.org; mcbs...@yahoo.com; arpa...@charter.net; gmi...@verizon.net; wsha...@wshancock.com; janet....@verizon.net; f...@fognet.com; kokoma...@gmail.com; uucwgr...@googlegroups.com; bartlet...@gmail.com
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Lance McKee
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