CPR update and share price

[doodlebug99]

Anybody got any views how a CPR update to say 250mb (a number i have heard banded about) would affect the share price? I dont feel there are many buyers about atm, so although this kind of update would be very good news, I am not holding my breath for a spike. I am here till 10quid anyhow, when I will offload half, buy a house, and let the rest run. For 10quid we will need some flow, be it from EB1 or EB2. GLA

[Mosa]

I think if other things like ADR's are also included you might see a sustained rise, but a lot of buyers are very wary after November.

Like you say, we need flows, the CPR to back that up, ADR's and results on the survey if carried out.  So quite a bit of news information is due.

Also people have been talking options, so that might be the first to clear then other information follows.  Brian needs to start delivering.

[MJS28]

Personally, I can see the SP hitting £10 on a duel release of CPR upgrade + ADRs, if this info is released even before Phase2 results - my optimism is based on the fact that the Americans have previous for liking a story & then chasing a SP into the clouds, and I believe that ours is a story they will indeed like.

[tetchy]

£10 sounds nice but I'd settle for a bit less to cheer us all up. The sp has DEFFO been manipulated today by someone buying their own shares. Looking forward to chunks of good news being released over the coming days and weeks.

[Debug]

I'm not holding my breath for a CPR update either, although I imagine they have one and might just be sitting on it waiting for the flow results.

Also as Mosa indicated people are obviously wary of news now, possibly even a little jaded.  That might undermine any upgrade we see now so they could play it cool and wait to release both together.

An upgrade should be very significant as it is far from being all about flow rates.  Would we care if we could flow 5k a day if we only have 500k?   It needs both. but having no oil cannot be fixed,   Lower flow can be worked around, stimulation, more wells etc.   The techniques for extraction and value of oil today makes many forms of recovery viable, however no oil will always be no oil.

67M recoverable proved on its own would be great, but an upgrade to those sort of levels would be a very good thing to see and should directly and positively impact the SP no matter when it arrives. 

[fightfear]

I agree - I think OIP is far more important than flows for us right now

[Mosa]

I know it's been talked/tweeted and rumoured about but an upgraded CPR in any form would be good, however, if you then flow test zones (both old and new) surely your CPR modelling changes?  Or are they able to make assumptions on this?

I would see that they have to go back and re jig numbers.  Maybe, but if Brian is as tight as we all know, CPR's etc are not cheap.  Unless it's being done as a marketing exercise for ADR's so it's presented in a very attractive way for the SP.

[tetchy]

I bow to the greater knowledge of others here and have taken on board the public comments and private asides that talk of a new CPR as part of a strategy. A decent updated CPR has to be used strategically one imagines. Happy to wait, but still keen to get some coordinated, transparent, timely news updates starting with commencement of the work over / flow test. What follows is speculation and perhaps nothing else till flow results, but If the CPR comes out earlier, perhaps it might accompany news on share options? All positive stuff To my mind, but then I'm still a cynical optimist at heart.

[Debug]

Mosa, tetchy

During one of the post wo1 interviews Brian made a statement about the new CPR data already being with FGA and that the flow and OIP were not closely related.  I took it from this that they were happy to progress a CPR update without flow results and that the logging data already acquired was sufficient to determine the change in OIP estimates, albeit with a gap for flow commerciality of EB1.

I can see how this can be the case and would normally be happy to just wait anyway for a combined assessment of both.  On reflection though with the SP and sentiment in the doldrums a good CPR upgrade may be just what we need right now.   Even without ADR's and new blood as it where, an official OIP upgrade given the recent activity may allay a lot of fears.  

I know it would make me very comfortable if they did that, particularly knowing that they are taking no chances with information at the moment.  

 

 

[Axus]

Long shot but has anyone any idea  which depot the workover rig is based at. 

 

The RNS 4 days ago stated " commenced equipment mobilization " which in itself could mean many things, but even a truck that size can cover a good few miles in 4 days if the RNS meant it had started rolling.

[MJS28]

It's 6 days ago now Axus. At a guess, I'd expect everything to be on site by this weekend. And the temperatures there don't look too bad at all this next week, considering it's January

[dodger]

Taken with a pinch of salt but Twitter comments suggest that yesterday (24-1-13) was the start of the testing.

Bearing in mind the first workover I assume we wont hear anything official from the company, I had hoped they would have learned by their mistakes and start a minor information flow to keep shareholders happy and interested but its been just as quiet as before!

In my view any info should be released as soon as it is created or known by the BOD, there should be no holding back of CPR, ADR's, flow rates etc to create a massive impact, this could be seen as witholding price sensitive info.  PI's are becoming increasingly less interested at this point in time and any potential investors in the future will be more than capable of piecing together information to create their own picture.

[tetchy]

My thoughts were that the last 'rig mobilisation' RNS wasn't strictly necessary, so perhaps we'd also get news once the testing started. Such news might need some further additional commentary but, without wishing to be spoon fed, transparency and a degree of clarity is helpful. Timely means different things to different folks, but a certain minimum news flow can look professional. We'll get what we get and the end result is what matters!