This lengthy dystopian analysis does not mention the momentous changes in the neighbourhood impinging on Nigerian consciousness and inevitably to some extent making Tinubu a little nervous - as he should be, about Niger, his neighbour to the North and the comrades of like purpose, in Senegal, Mali and Burkina Faso, states where the status and battle-readiness of their military is pivotal and beyond question, the French have been kicked out, and new alliances are being formed with Russia, China in the background.
With regard to Nigeria, the hub of concern is the destabilisation of the country, a forced diversion and distraction from concentrating on the kind of development that could progress more rapidly in a peaceful, stable environment.
Re - ” It is said that the fish rots from the head, and President Tinubu, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, bears ultimate responsibility for the military’s glaring lack of combat readiness.”
The fact is that the rot didn’t start on May 29, 2023 when President Tinubu became commander-in-chief. Back in 2021 we were supplied with “An Analysis of Nigeria’s Security challenges”, a situation which he inherited.
I have been keeping an eye on Okey C. Iheduru, especially when he writes about the Nigerian military vs insecurity. Professor Iheduru is sounding the alarm and recommending solutions, but who's listening? Who is not listening ? Doing? Doing nothing?
His latest early warning signal is a cause for distress
It is bitter and it is timely, coming as it does, at the heels of
Commander-in-Chief Bola Ahmed Tibubu
dementing most vehemently
the rumour that he had invited
or given the green light to Macron
to set up a Military base in Nigeria,
perhaps just in case ,
even as the country accelerates
towards total anarchy,
due to Nigeria’s military inefficiency
he would need a little help from his friends in France
to strike down any serious insurgency
most violently !
There’s no mistaking how serious Okey C. Iheduru is about the survival of the fittest and the importance of being stronger than your enemies, even if in the Nigerian context apart from the wanton ransom kidnappers, the enemy in common is the enemy at large, is ostensibly the very dangerous Boko Haram who despite the havoc they have caused and are still causing, he derogatorily & contemptuously relegates & downgrades as “a scrappy terrorist group with second-hand rifles and motorcycles” - and if we are to take Professor Iheduru seriously, the more dangerous enemies are the usual litany of woes about Naija’s resources and potentials being mangled and mismanaged by “Corrupt and Inept Leadership” etc going way, way back - as Ojukwu once said when interviewed by Stella, “The military takes over for one reason only : For Profit.” - and Nigeria has had a succession of military rulers doing their thing..
“The Military and the Monetary
Get together whenever they
Think it's necessary” ( Gil Scott-Heron : Work For Peace )
Contemporary history and the current aware-ness: These days, the mere mention of the battle-readiness of the military anywhere in Europe and in any context, the very first thing that comes to the mind of the pessimist is the possibility that the Russia-Ukraine imbroglio could spill over and engulf all of Europe once more as the main theatre of world war, this time, the war to end all wars, namely the third world war, after which there certainly would be nobody left in Europe to speak of - and into ashes all our lust, hence the urgency in the phrase ”Prevention is better than cure”
Practically speaking, to begin with, prevention mostly hinges on the size of your military budget - the greater your pocket the greater your deterrence - and in military terms this means that if for example everybody in the Middle East was armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons, such would be the equilibrium of terror ( as we now have between India and Pakistan) that eventually it would either all be peace & tranquillity or we blow ourselves up to discover the meaning of infinity / heaven, in eternity
A little question from a still small voice: What percentage of Nigeria’s GNP goes to the military?
Maxwell Mitikishe Khobe came to a tragic end in Sierra Leone
The Nigerian Military : “The Nigerian Armed Forces, comprising the Army, Navy, and Air Force, is one of the largest and most powerful military forces in Africa, with a significant role in both national defense and international peacekeeping.”
The latest news headlines about The Nigerian Military are upbeat
Some perspective:
World : Military spending by country
World :Military ranking by country ( Nigeria ranked 31 )
We are free to imagine that if Prof Iheduru’s recommendations were to be fully adopted & implemented and in addition to that the military budget were to be significantly increased, then the military’s fire-power would be formidable & more than capable in quelling insurgencies, rebellions, ransom kidnapping and wanton terrorism. (But a note of reservation about the military’s budget being increased significantly before some of the irregularities have been eliminated completely : the danger of some of the top brass ogas getting too big for their boots and then we’d have Brer Iheduru writing learned epistles about the need to depoliticize the army, and that they should stay where they truly belong: in their barracks.)
Wouldn’t it be a good thing if some of the willing and able ( all regions) did military service in lieu of just the National Youth Service Corps ?
“The days when borders were sacrosanct are fading fast; today, resources and strategic territories are up for grabs, and only nations with the will and capacity to defend themselves will survive unscathed.” (Okey C. Iheduru)
So true, so true : That’s how just across the border you have Guinean troops occupying Yenga, a diamond town in the East of Sierra Leone . Of course, the predatory Guineans might still want to blame it all on colonialism and want to justify their acts of aggression and the invasion of another sovereign nation by claiming that it’s all the fault of colonialism and colonial borders, that Yenga is a part of Sierra Leone, and that since the beginning of eternity Yenga has always rightly belonged to Guinea Conakry !
It’s an old recurring problem that just won’t go away. Twenty years ago Sierra Leone’s President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah wrote a very polite letter to his Guinean counterpart, President Lanasana Conte, and please note the letter did not begin “Get the f-kkk - out of Sierra Leone - or else !” , nor did it begin “Because of a difference of opinion we don’t have to be enemies?” Difference of opinion? Dude, we’re talking about my country
No. Ahmad Tejan Kabbah had been Lansana Conte’s guest for a good six months, because it was in neighbouring Guinea that Kabbah obtained political asylum after he hopped into the helicopter that flew him to safety, otherwise he would have been arrested and incarcerated by Johnny Paul Koroma and his men.
So, Pa Kabbah’s letter began
“Dear President Lansana Conte,
Assalamualaikum wa rahmatullahi wa barakatuh !
My people are asking me why Guinean troops are still in Yenga three years after our civil war is over?”
Bembeya Jazz National : Armée Guinéenne
Nigerian Army Rhythm Group: Ebawa Se
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“Do all the political class want a strong military?
I doubt it” ( Oluwatoyin Adepoju)
No doubt, your doubts have a strong foundation. As we have all observed over several election cycles now, the opposition has always thrived on blaming whatever incumbent government for their inability to curb corruption, lawlessness and communal violence whether it’s occurring in Plateau State, Benue State, or Borno State (from where the current vice-president hails) Maiduguri being the headquarters, hub and epicentre from which Nigeria’s most distinguished Islamic terrorist organisation Boko Haram spread their trademark death and destruction. After the Chibok kidnapping, Goodluck Jonathan’s inadequate response to the #BringBackOurGirls appeal cost him the 2015 presidential election, since he was deemed too toothless & “clueless” in dealing with that outcry. Muhammadu Buhari’s chilling promise that if he was cheated this time around “the dog and the baboon would be soaked in blood “didn’t help to make matters any better.
(Mind you, I celebrated Brother Buhari’s victory in Turkey - where I happened to be on the 15th of May, 2015, celebrated big time with a bunch of Iranians ( no al-cohol) at the hotel where I was staying, as the 15th of May was also the day that the Iran Nuclear Deal came through. So we partied till the wee hours of the morning - and when I eventually got back to Stockholm I had to pay a telephone bill of $400. I had been using the Wi-Fi at various hotels to follow events in Nigeria and had not set my phone on “roaming”. In fairness, I should have sent the bill to Bro Muhammadu Buhari .)
The opposition to Brother Buhari had promised to make the country “ungovernable” and as we all witnessed, to some extent they kept their promise as evidenced by the new spate of mayhem, ransom kidnappings etc - but that formula didn’t work this time and JAGABAN trounced Alhaji Atiku & Peter Obi most resoundingly in that Mother Of All Nigerian Presidential Elections. They (the sour losers) are still licking their wounds, but apparently they haven’t quite given up yet and they are said to be regrouping, wishful thinking, the by then octogenarian Alhaji Atiku Abubakar would like to “unite” the opposition, under his umbrella of course, with his 81-year-old self as the presumptive flag bearer for the united opposition at the next Nigerian presidential election of 2027
I notice that in your animosity for what you delight in referring to as “ Northern hegemony” you have selectively chosen “Boko Haram, Fulani militia and the Northern kidnap, bandit and terrorist network” and excluded all the miscreants from the East, the Owerri 419 mitoto artists, lawbreakers and ransom kidnappers etc
Nor do you mention the valiant Amotekun
The news just flashed on Swedish TV that the herdsmen have been at it again. It’s world news. It has been said time without number that the root causes have to be addressed and these flare ups should not be blamed on the religious identity of the herdsmen or viewed as merely symptomatic of “the religion of peace”
I’m afraid that without Alagba Iheduru’s deeper knowledge about exactly what would bring about a stronger Nigerian military (certainly not just more money to the military budget to be squandered/sucked /sponged/syphoned off by leakages) and the implications of a stronger military, we would of course only be giving our fantasy speculations free rein. For example, I don’t know whether or not you relegate Miyetti Allah with their own vested interests, as belonging to “the political class” but I’m certain that they wouldn’t like to see a stronger, empowered Nigerian military - God forbid - wipe out their much maligned brethren the “Fulani Herdsmen” as some kind of”final solution”
Baba Kadiri (now missing in action in this forum) has suggested that to some extent the military is compromised in their fight against terrorism , in some cases there’s the dubious matter of how they hand over ransom money, in other cases there are suspicions about them being in collusion with the miscreants - there’s the mystery of how the terrorists have obtained some of their weapons -there's a hint about who is supplying them with weapons, to the extent that the Nigerian military is sometimes outfoxed and outgunned by the “a scrappy terrorist group with second-hand rifles and motorcycles”
Alpha Blondy :Afriki
Alpha Blondy : Kiti
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To Lord Chief Justice Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju Esq :
Your Honour,
Sincere apologies for the delay in getting back to you. I’ve been keeping tabs on Pope Leo XIV and Trump and wondering when is Saudi Arabia going to invest $600 Million in Nigeria?
On the whole, your memory serves you right when you say, not even on oath, on the holy Quran or Bible, “I don't recall reading anyone declaring they would make the country ungovernable for Buhari's government.” Coming to think of it, it makes sense that on the contrary, if anything, the dark foreboding in what at the time sounded like Brother Buhari’s unveiled threat about “the dog and the baboon” being “soaked in blood”, was more than a hint about ungovernability, if that election outcome smelled like something rotten in the state of Denmark…
For certainty’s sake I consulted Pa Google : Nigerians : "Will make the country ungovernable" ?
Well, Fulani Herdsmen did not ostensibly enjoy the patronage or protection of their Fulani president. Nor was he the power fuelling Boko Haram. As you have also rightly pointed out, paradoxically, during his mandate period most of the mayhem of ungovernability was concentrated in the North and Middle Belt - Benue and Plateau where the clash between the local indigenous farmers and the cattle-rearing nomads, mostly passing through, their cattle in need of foliage and water in their long trek to the southern abattoirs, that and all the other inter-ethnic and inter-religious tensions are keeping the conflict perpetually alive.
The ransom kidnapping is everywhere without exception , and if we are to believe the lamentations recently penned by Professor Jibrin Ibrahim, then dear Nigeria is on the very edge of the abyss - of anarchy. So, what are you doing about it? You say, “As long as the politics of insecurity is not frontally addressed, it won't end.” What do you mean by “frontally addressed”?
You should be grateful that the danger from the North hasn’t travelled further south to Rivers, and Cross Rivers, although some years ago my neighbour from Edo - as narrated somewhere here told me that when he was on a visit, one evening he saw a Fulani herdsman fully armed with an AK47 on his farm. With Fulani herdsmen on his mind all the time, of course he’s bound to see Fulani herdsmen everywhere, especially mingling with the evening shadows, whilst he’s enjoying a few bottle of lager on his balcony
We ought not to trivialise the seriousness of these matters.
In some of the discourses in this forum this phrase often pops up : No matter whose ox is gored.
Indeed, all eyes etc being equal, it’s an eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth, a holy principle of justice, fair exchange is no robbery, hence "No matter whose ox is gored "
Maybe, only Mr Elephant can boast that his memory is not selective. As for the other dude, he never forgets, and on principle, he does not forgive, and that’s why in e.g. the matter of Gaza, he quotes AMALEK - bottom line: they did not fear GOD, and attacked Israel from behind!
BTW, take a step back and shudder to imagine if things would have turned out much better or worse if like Boko Haram, Chibok style, HAMAS had kidnapped 276 Israeli schoolgirls and carted them off, not to the Sambisa forest or to the Negev Desert but to various underground tunnels in Gaza and married some of them during their first year in captivity ! Then instead of Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari foaming at the mouth, it would have been the mothers and fathers, grandmothers, grandfathers, brothers, sisters, uncles, nieces, aunts, all Israel & Diaspora, Pope Francis and Pope Leo XIV imploring Mr Netanyahu “BringBackOurGirls”
Nigeria is such a complex country. The politics is complex and complicated due to the country’s size, its polarized religious and ethnic ethnic diversity and the struggle of the various groups to control and dispense the largesse accruing from the country’s bountiful resources.
Madilu System :Vincent
Madilu System : Melancolique