AfCFTA and the Political Will Test

[John Onyeukwu]

AfCFTA and the Political Will Test

Why Governance, Not Tariffs, Will Decide Africa’s Future

John Onyeukwu

(Published in my Policy & Reform Column of Business am Newspaper on Monday August 25, 2025). Page 6 in the attached.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been hailed as a bold step toward
continental integration, promising to create the largest single market in the world. At its core,
AfCFTA is a pact of economics. Yet, as with every grand economic design, it must be interrogated
through the lenses of philosophy, politics, and economics if it is to truly serve African citizens rather
than elites and external interests.

AfCFTA is more than an agreement about tariffs and trade; it is a question of identity and belonging.
The aspiration of “one Africa, one market” touches on the idea of African citizenship: can a trader in
Lagos feel the same ease of belonging in Accra or Nairobi as they do at home? The African Union’s
founding principles spoke of unity and shared destiny, yet in practice, borders remain hard, mobility
is constrained, and the lived reality of ordinary Africans is defined by national identities rather than
continental solidarity. AfCFTA can only gain legitimacy if it is not just about moving goods, but also
about expanding the freedoms and rights of Africans as citizens of a shared economic and political
community.

Politics is about power and distribution. AfCFTA’s promise will test the governance capacity of
African states and institutions. Weak customs systems, rent-seeking officials at borders, and
inconsistent regulatory environments can undermine its goals. Without transparent dispute settlement
mechanisms, smaller economies risk being swallowed by larger ones, and powerful corporations may
capture the gains at the expense of citizens.

This is why African leaders must find the political will to confront governance failures head-on.
AfCFTA strips bare the continent’s fault lines, corruption, weak institutions, policy inconsistency,
and infrastructural deficits. Leaders can no longer hide behind sovereignty or slogans; they must
commit to harmonizing trade rules, cutting red tape, and dismantling entrenched interests that profit
from fragmentation. Political will here is not about rhetoric at summits but about taking the hard
decisions at home: reforming border agencies, digitizing customs processes, investing in logistics,
and holding officials accountable. Without this courage, AfCFTA risks becoming another paper
tiger.

Economically, AfCFTA promises a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion and the potential to lift 30 million
people out of extreme poverty (World Bank, 2020). But the numbers conceal critical distributional
questions. Will the benefits trickle down to the roadside trader in Cotonou or the smallholder farmer
in Kano? Or will they consolidate in industrial hubs in South Africa, Egypt, or Nigeria?
If governance failures persist, AfCFTA may deepen inequalities between regions, sectors, and
classes. For example, large corporations with capacity to navigate complex cross-border rules will
thrive, while small and medium enterprises, the true lifeblood of African economies, may struggle to
compete. An inclusive AfCFTA must therefore embed social safeguards: consumer protection, labor
rights, gender inclusivity, and mechanisms to empower youth entrepreneurs who form the bulk of
Africa’s workforce.

The deeper insight is that AfCFTA is not self-executing. It demands a rethinking of governance at
multiple levels:
 At the continental level, the AfCFTA Secretariat must become a truly independent institution
with the authority to enforce rules and resolve disputes fairly. It should not be reduced to a
ceremonial office in Accra but evolve into a continental referee, capable of resisting political
pressure from dominant states while safeguarding smaller economies.
 At the national level, governments must align policies, curb corruption, and ensure that
implementation is not sabotaged by vested interests. This means harmonizing customs
regimes, digitizing border processes, and investing in the infrastructure, roads, ports, energy,
that trade requires.
 At the citizen level, civil society and the private sector must push for accountability, ensuring
AfCFTA is not captured by elites but genuinely broadens economic opportunities. Citizens
must also be empowered with information, training, and finance to take advantage of the
single market rather than being bystanders in its rollout.

For this to happen, political will is decisive. Leaders must see AfCFTA not as a ceremonial African
Union project but as a strategic governance test. Political will, in this context, means the readiness to
confront entrenched interests, dismantle rent-seeking networks at borders, and absorb the short-term
political costs of reforms for long-term continental gain. It requires resisting the temptation of
populist nationalism that clings to protectionism while denying citizens the opportunities of scale and
integration.

If they fail to summon the courage to enforce reforms, protect weaker economies, and prioritize
citizen welfare, AfCFTA will remain another unfulfilled dream, another addition to the catalogue of
well-intentioned African protocols that die at the altar of poor implementation. But if they succeed, if
leaders align national interest with continental aspiration, AfCFTA can transform Africa’s political
economy, energize productive sectors, and give true substance to the idea of continental citizenship,
where ordinary Africans finally feel the dividends of integration in their daily lives.

The AfCFTA embodies Africa’s ambition to rewrite its economic narrative. But without strong
governance, citizen-centered implementation, and above all, the political will of leaders, it risks
becoming yet another lofty declaration. Philosophy reminds us of the ideals of unity, politics
demands institutional strength, and economics insists on equitable distribution. Only by balancing
these dimensions can AfCFTA move from promise to practice.

If Africa fails to anchor AfCFTA in the lived realities of its citizens, the project will be hollow. But if
it succeeds, AfCFTA could become more than a trade pact, it could be the foundation of a new
African social contract, where citizens, governance, and prosperity converge.

--

John Onyeukwu
http://www.policy.hu/onyeukwu/

 http://about.me/onyeukwu
“Let us move forward to fight poverty, to establish equity, and assure peace for the next generation.”
-- James D. Wolfensohn
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