Achebe Colloquium: Nigeria May Become Irrelevant on The International Stage [ Powerful and Deeply Disturbing]

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

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From: DIPO ENIOLA dipoe...@yahoo.com [OmoOdua] <Omo...@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Sun, 28 Jul 2019 at 13:32
Subject: [OmoOdua] Achebe Colloquium: Nigeria May be Irrelevance on The International Stage
To: Politics Naija <naijap...@yahoogroups.com>

 

Thought provoking & a must read..

Princeton N. Lyman, the former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria and South Africa,

delivered a very poignant speech on the panel titled "The Nigerian State and

U.S. Strategic Interests" at the Achebe Colloquium at Brown University. Lyman suggests that rather than continually emphasize

Nigeria's strategic importance, it would behoove us to consider elements

that might eventually lead to Nigeria's irrelevance on the international

stage.

TRANSCRIPT OF SPEECH (TAKEN DIRECTLY FROM THE VIDEO SPEECH)

Thank you very much Prof. Keller and thanks to the organizers of this conference. It is such a privilege to be here in a conference in honor of Prof. Achebe, an inspiration and teacher to all of us.

I have a long connection to Nigeria. Not only was I Ambassador there, I have travelled to and from Nigeria for a number of years and have a deep and abiding vital emotional attachment to the Nigerian people, their magnificence, their courage, artistic brilliance, their irony, sense of humor in the face of challenges etc.

And I hope that we keep that in mind when I say some things that I think are counter to what we normally say about Nigeria. And I say that with all due respect to Eric Silla who is doing a magnificent work at State Department and to our good friend from the legislature, because I have a feeling that we both Nigerians and Americans may be doing Nigeria and Nigerians no favor by stressing Nigeria's strategic importance.

I know all the arguments: it is a major oil producer, it is the most populous country in Africa, it has made major contributions to Africa in peacekeeping, and of course negatively if Nigeria were to fall apart the ripple effects would be tremendous, etc.. But I wonder if all this emphasis on Nigeria's importance creates a tendency of inflate Nigeria's opinion of its own invulnerability.

Among much of the elite today, I have the feeling that there is a belief that Nigeria is too big to fail, too important to be ignored, and that Nigerians can go on ignoring some of the most fundamental challenges they have many of which we have talked about: disgraceful lack of infrastructure, the growing problems of unemployment, the failure to deal with the underlying problems in the Niger-Delta, the failure to consolidate democracy and somehow feel will remain important to everybody because of all those reasons that are strategically important.

And I am not sure that that is helpful.

Let me sort of deconstruct those elements of Nigeria's importance, and ask whether they are as relevant as they have been.

We often hear that one in five Africans is a Nigerian. What does it mean? Do we ever say one in five Asians is a Chinese? Chinese power comes not just for the fact that it has a lot of people but it has harnessed the entrepreneurial talent and economic capacity and all the other talents of China to make her a major economic force and political force.

What does it mean that one in five Africans is Nigeria? It does not mean anything to a Namibian or a South African. It is a kind of conceit. What makes it important is what is happening to the people of Nigerian. Are their talents being tapped? Are they becoming an economic force? Is all that potential being used?

And the answer is "Not really."

And oil, yes, Nigeria is a major oil producer, but Brazil is now launching a 10-year program that is going to make it one of the major oil producers in the world. And every other country in Africa is now beginning to produce oil.

And Angola is rivalling Nigeria in oil production, and the United States has just discovered a huge gas reserve which is going to replace some of our dependence on imported energy.

So if you look ahead ten years, is Nigeria really going to be that relevant as a major oil producer, or just another of another of the many oil producers while the world moves on to alternative sources of energy and other sources of supply.

And what about its influence, its contributions to the continent? As our representative from the parliament talked about, there is a great history of those contributions. But that is history.

Is Nigeria really playing a major role today in the crisis in Niger on its border, or in Guinea, or in Darfur, or after many many promises making any contributions to Somalia?

The answer is no, Nigeria is today NOT making a major impact, on its region, or on the African Union or on the big problems of Africa that it was making before.

What about its economic influence?

Well, as we have talked about earlier, there is a de industrialization going on in Nigeria a lack of infrastructure, a lack of power means that with imported goods under globalization, Nigerian factories are closing, more and more people are becoming unemployed. and Nigeria is becoming a kind of

society that imports and exports and lives off the oil, which does not

make it a significant economic entity.

Now, of course, on the negative side, the collapse of Nigeria would be enormous, but is that a point to make Nigeria strategically important?

Years ago, I worked for an Assistant Secretary of State who had the longest tenure in that job in the 1980s and I remember in one meeting a minister from a country not very friendly to the United States came in and was berating the Assistant Secretary on all the evils of the United States and

all its dire plots and in things in Africa and was going on and on and

finally the Assistant Secretary cut him off and said: "You know, the biggest danger for your relationship with the United States is not our oppostion but that we will find you irrelevant."

The point is that Nigeria can become much less relevant to the United States. We have already seen evidence of it. When President Obama went to Ghana and not to Nigeria, he was sending a message, that Ghana symbolized

more of the significant trends, issues and importance that one wants to put on Africa than Nigeria.

And when I was asked by journalists why President Obama did not go to Nigeria, I said "what would he gain from going? Would Nigeria be a good model for democracy, would it be a model for good governance, would he

obtain new commitments on Darfur or Somalia or strengthen the African Union or in Niger or elsewhere?"

No he would not, so he did not go.

And when Secretary Clinton did go, indeed but she also went to Angola and who would have thought years ago that Angola would be the most stable country in the Gulf of Guinea and establish a binational commission in Angola.

So the handwriting may already be on the wall, and that is a sad commentary.

Because what it means is that Nigeria's most important strategic importance in the end could be that it has failed.

And that is a sad sad conclusion. It does not have to happen, but I think that we ought to stop talking about what a great country it is, and how terribly important it is to us and talk about what it would take for Nigeria to be that important and great.

And that takes an enormous amount of commitment. And you don't need saints, you don't need leaders like Nelson Mandela in every state, because you are not going to get them.

I served in South Korea in the middle of the 1960s and it was time when South Korea was poor and considered hopeless, but it was becoming to turn around, later to become to every person's amazement then the eleventh

largest economy in the world. And I remember the economist in my mission saying, you know it did not bother him that the leading elites in the government of South Korea were taking 15 - 20 percent off the top of every project, as long as every project was a good one, and that was the difference. The leadership at the time was determined to solve the fundamental economic issues of South Korea economy and turn its economy around.

It has not happened in Nigeria today. 

You don't need saints. It needs

leaders who say "You know we could be becoming irrelevant, and we got to do something about it."

Thank you

#copied

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[tunde jaiyeoba]

Truly "thought provoking and a must read"!!! Thanks for sharing 

Please is it possible to get this speech published somehow in local Nigerian newspapers?

Such a short speech with a great message.

Actually what i mean by getting it published is .....how can our leaders whatever side of the divide they belong, if there is any divide at all..get to read this speech by an outsider but with a deep knowledge of the Nigerian situation

Babatunde JAIYEOBA

E.Babatunde JAIYEOBA PhD

Professor of Architecture

Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria

ebj...@oauife.edu.ng; tundej...@yahoo.co.uk; +234 8037880023

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[Cornelius Hamelberg]

Another aside:

I spent the last week (an entire seven days) holidaying with my wider/extended family of twelve people, at the island of Nåttarö in the Stockholm Archipelago, away from some of the creature-comforts, one gets used to enjoying in the Stockholm City Civilization, such as an uninterrupted flow of the purest & the cleanest hot and cold tap water per-pet-ually running in the pipe lines, flush toilets, and not having to go to any “outhouse” to do the big business.

In parts of the African jungle where I have lived, there were/are the mosquitoes as large as crabs, sent there by a higher natural power to serenade you at night (in your ears) and to bite you and suck your blood, these bloodsuckers did their own brand of jihad, hence our part of Africa was known as “The White Man’s Grave” and whether you liked it not, the creature discomfort of having to crouch or sit like an animal, to do “big business, at which time and on every such occasion there was/is always the distinct possibility, the nightmare of a big black snake sneaking up on you, reaching out from the depths of darkness to bite you on your naked ass.

Out there in Nåttarö, I had to fetch our water in a pail and felt very much at home. I always feel at home in the jungle in Africa, except for the snakes that always come out every time there is a rainbow in the sky. It rains – the snakes return to their holes, their hideouts where they hide until the sun comes out again and then they too come out again to sun their cold, wet skins – much like the Oyibo like to catch some sun; but with the snakes (all kinds) one has to be very careful, keep your eyes open, one of them could drop suddenly, from the branch of a tree, right in front of you or you could tread on one on the ground – accidentally of course – see and hear Mr Viper or Miss angry snake rear his/ her ugly head to hiss at you.

Just as I said, Dr. Alban too, “Why be humble?”, I always feel at home in the jungle, except for when one has to crouch somewhere to shi-it in the “Shalanga”, inside some big big hole – and then, just as I said before, the distinct possibility of a big black snake sneaking upon you, reaching out from behind, from the depths of darkness, to bite your naked ass. Indeed, as Fela Kuti tells us and the whole world in I.T.T. and I would like to tell Ambassador Lyman the same and you can be sure that he understands this perfectly too:

“Long, long, long, long time ago

African man, we no dey carry shit

Na European man teach us to carry shit”

First of all, the venue at which Ambassador Lyman was holding forth is very important. It was” The Chinua Achebe Symposium” - Biafraist Achebe, the alleged grandfather of African Literature, the appropriate, secessionist author of “There was a Country” and even more appropriately the author of “The Trouble with Nigeria

What a wonderful opportunity for former Ambassador Lyman (not lie-man or lay-man) to contribute to the latter theme!

Ambassador Lyman made this speech in 2009 – almost ten years ago – and much water has flowed down the River Niger since then. Today, even the most chronic optimists can only aver that things have changed, yes, and changed for the worse. Brer Obasanjo who famously once said (not so long ago), “My God will not forgive me if I support Atiku”, has since changed the colour of his loyalty to his His Father, His Son and the Holy Ghost and unforgivably plunged into the fire of everlasting darkness with his eyes still wide open or maybe closed when he opted to support his aforementioned idol, his one and only Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Maybe, God will not forgive him.

I’m surprised that there have been no direct reactions/ responses in this forum, to Ambassador Lyman’s assessment of Nigeria’s place and Nigeria’s possible role in Africa and the world. We all know that a dysfunctional, fragmented, disembowelled Nigeria would be of less strategic importance to the outside world, that in such a scenario, the brain-drain would continue unabated, considerably enhanced, the dependence on oil will inevitably decline along with the fall in the price of oil - with the oil glut avoided now because Iran is temporarily not selling much oil and that due to economic hardship there would be more refugees from Nigeria drowning in The Mediterranean Sea on the way to Fortress Europe

Back in 2009, as far as the insurgency was concerned, Ambassador Lyman could only refer to “the growing problems of unemployment, the failure to deal with the underlying problems in the Niger-Delta...”

Today’s Nigeria already bursting at the seams (with unemployment and anarchy) is moving precipitously ever closer to imploding along the well known North-South, Muslim-Christian axis of destruction, and we are to presume that any mass expulsions of Northerners (Fulani herdsman) from where they have lived and thrived in the South, the West and to a certain extent the Eastern enclave from the very foundations of Lugard’s Nigeria - it is to be expected that any such nonsense would be stoutly resisted – would be met – fortunately or unfortunately with retaliation, possibly on the scale of the 1966 pogroms. Then, who is it that will be blamed? For now there is a very significant Boko Haram insurgency adding to the general insecurity, confusion, anarchy and still on Ambassador Lyman's theme of  "The Nigerian State and U.S. Strategic Interests”the possibility that the USA gets a permanent foothold in Africa, through AFRICOM - ostensibly to fight china in Africa, China having conquered Ethiopia, Jamaica, Angola, Namibia and most of the Dark Continent (don’t know about the blokes North of the Sahara) next question, has China got a foothold in Nigeria? In that regard asked Baba Google this question:

Is it true that there are US soldiers based in Nigeria?

I ask because there are so many machinations afoot, to destabilise Nigeria, cut her down to size and we can see these machinations at work and their effects, right before our eyes. As Moses Ochonu happily or unhappily reminds us all, in his I the thread “Professor Oyebode apologizes for Buhari vote “ - he said that “ American intelligence agencies predicted everything that is currently happening and that will happen - back in 2001! “ and this suggests to Cornelius Ignoramus the uninitiated that although ( Burns’ “ To a Mouse” )

“The best laid schemes o’ Mice an’ Men

          Gang aft agley”

the hitherto unidentified agencies were/are not fast asleep and the aforementioned evil machinations and schemes were already afoot, precipitating, maybe even guiding and stage-managing the sequence of events now inexorably leading to their doomsday conclusions, according to the American agencies, wish-fulfilling prophecies - and that the various agents are still hard at work, orchestrating, inspiring, nudging on, fanning the unholy ethnic and religious flames that will lead to the great  conflagration, as Nigeria implodes into its ultimate disintegration, if they should have their own way.

The number of such agents within Nigeria must be more than 100 (a hundred) and those outside of Nigeria but focused on Nigeria, another 100 – of which we most probably have at least five (5) who are actually participating in this USA- Africa Dialogue Series. One or two of them may be convinced that they have higher ideals and are doing it for their tribe or their country. They of course, know who they are, but not all of them ( of the various grades) know each other or are aware that they are parts of the same machine. We also know that among them are people who are prepared to sell their grandmothers, for money.

“Fortune and fame's such a curious game. Perfect strangers can call you by name” 

Of course, apart from “American intelligence agencies” and conspiracy theorists, there are others, of various grades, too numerous to name, some of them convinced or being flattered that that they are very intelligent ( in itself not a bad quality)

From the beginning when I read Lyman’s lecture I thought of only commenting on his saying that

“ When President Obama went to Ghana and not to Nigeria, he was sending a message, that Ghana symbolized more of the significant trends, issues, and importance that one wants to put on Africa than Nigeria. And when I was asked by journalists why President Obama did not go to Nigeria, I said "what would he gain from going? Would Nigeria be a good model for democracy, would it be a model for good governance, would he obtain new commitments on Darfur or Somalia or strengthen the African Union or in Niger or elsewhere?" No he would not, so he did not go.”

I asked a knowledgeable Ghanaian the same question: in 2008, why did Obama choose to visit Ghana but not Nigeria? He couldn't give a straight answer. Well, this was Nigeria in 2008.

I guess that Ghana was chosen because of her rich symbolism, no civil wars, Kwame Nkrumah etc., at the time, Ghana had just concluded a successful transition through a peaceful democratic election, John Atta Mills handing over the baton to Nana Akufo-Addo . On the whole, Ghana’s presidents continue to be better educated and better mentally equipped than their Nigerian counterparts, Ghana, the Black Star Nation attained Independence, when the wind of change started blowing over Africa, three years before Nigeria.

The question could have equally been, why didn’t Obama visit his ancestral homeland Kenya, before Ghana, or before kick- starting the Arab Spring from the moment that he said, “Assalamualaikum”, from the podium of Cairo University?

_____________________________________________________________________

Of relevance: Yesterday , I received this from a dear Edo Brother ( here in Stockholm) :

*SAD DEVELOPMENT! *

If you're Nigerian.. Read this!

Personal Opinion!

African leaders on Sunday voted to choose Ghana as the new headquarters to House the new Africa free trade zone. Coming with the new trade zone is a new airline hub for Africa to be built in Ghana.

*14 years ago Donald Duke had initiated discussions on the need for an airline hub to serve Africa to be situated in calabar. Unfortunately the dream died with Tinapa. *

It is important that Africa has its own hub, but unfortunately our political leadership just do not understand how these things work, so they never take it serious. From Nigeria, to travel to most African countries within Africa, you have to first travel either to Frankfurt or Amsterdam before you can connect to headquarters of most African countries. *CGI will be financing an airlines hub in Ghana following the situating of the Africa free trade zone in Ghana. *

Under the Addis Ababa-based African Union’s rules, all of its 55 members may bid to host the headquarters. Kenya, Ghana, eSwatini, Madagascar and Egypt where all in the race. Ethiopia and Senegal pulled out. On Sunday Ghana emerged. Almighty Nigeria was not even mentioned or considered.

This is what a good visionary leadership brings to its people. Ghana political leadership since Rawlings has stabilized. Ghanaians understand the importance of electing very educated people to lead their country.

Take for example, United Nations headquarters is in New York, it couldn’t be in Togo or Venezuela because America provides world leadership, naturally America had to house the UN, that’s how it works.

Second , America provides the bulk of UN funding, so traditionally they have to house the UN, the same argument goes as to why America houses the World Trade Center and the world bank.

*Now, Nigeria is the largest economy in Africa, we finance and fund Ecowas and makes a significant commitment and contribution to African Union. Housing the headquarters of the African free trade zone should not even be in contention, it should naturally come to us, but when our leaders seem not to understand the value we hold in global affairs new comers poke their hands in our eyes. *

To be factual, but we need a leadership and a team of advisers that knows what to do and how the international system works if Nigeria must rise again.

*Gradually Nigeria has lost her birthright, lost her big brother status. If not, how do you explain the fact that the African free trade zone headquarters is not in Lagos or Abuja rather it is going to Ghana and Africa airlines hub is also going to Ghana? *

The was a time all of Africa quakes when Nigeria roars, what has happened to the giant of Africa? Gradually the giant of Africa has lost its seniority in the committee of nations to little Ghana, a country with a population a little above cross river state. Ghana is what it is today because of investments from Nigeria. If all Nigerian investments are withdrawn from Ghana, their entire economy may not compete with that of Eti ~OSA local government of Lagos state.

*See what good leadership has turned Ghana to. It has become a place we send our kids to attend good schools because our school system has lost it. *

This all started when we refused to welcome black Americans who wanted to relocate to Nigeria and help develope an African country. Our Senate turned down the offer, Ghana opened her doors, gave 250 black Americans automatic Ghanaian citizenship. The positive PR that gesture has given Ghana among the worlds nations is enormous.

Virtually all African countries signed the free trade zone pact over a year ago, Nigeria and South Africa initially abstained. Now that Nigeria decided to join, given the fact that virtually all of Africa needs Nigeria more than we need them given the size of our economy and access to raw materials whose movement tariff free within Africa would boost other economies, why didn’t Nigeria insist on Housing the free trade zones headquarters as a prerequisite for joining the zone? Our leaders just cannot see the future.

*Last week South Africa became the 65th country offering visa free entry to holders of Ghanaian passports. Leadership is all about Capacity and vision, it is obvious Ghana is getting it right. *

Nigeria has everything required to lead Africa. We have the intellectuals, we have the wealth, we have great men with vision, but focused and visionary leadership has remained a challenge since independence. Ethnicity, religion, zoning and primitive partisanship has continued to hold us back. We pray our children in their own generation wakes up the sleeping giant. Africa shall rise again.

*Princewill Odidi writes from Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America *

Ethnicity, religion too, Boko Haram, unbridled greed, selfishness, egotism, corruption, disunity...Seen 23:30
 My own  short response :  Ethnicity, religion too, Boko Haram, unbridled greed, selfishness, egotism, corruption, disunity...  

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[Robbie Bland]

Coming from the former US Ambassador to Nigeria and South Africa, this speech about Nigeria's potential to fail to assert itself on the world stage is concerning. I am new to much of the talks about whether or not Nigeria is strategically important on the world stage, but from this article I learned it is an important oil exporter(that Brazil may soon pass), dense population center for the rest of the continent, and may be struggling to remain relevant to the world powers. It is worrisome that a prolific nation may be finding itself falling behind.I do wish the former ambassador spoke more about Nigeria's relations to other nations like China and Russia, of which I have read are actively attempting to exert influence over the country despite it's "irrelevance", but being a US ambassador, it is understandable those finer details didn't come up.

[Chimalum Nwankwo]

The reaction of the Ambassador is quite apt. Forget who is interested in Nigeria or not. Paraphrase the old popular rock song. Everybody is looking for something or asking for something...Nigeria is a burning house. Unless one is insane, the smart or sane thing to do is to stay away from a burning house. That is what the Ambassador is saying. And certainly all the things he pointed at constitute and construct the great tarmac to irrelevance...! The great mystery is why those in power and those who accept their leadership, docile and complacent,  do not think so. It is always comic genuflection and tireless defensiveness or connivance.

--- chimalum nwankwo

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