BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY
Moses E. Ochonu
Tinubu's strategy from the very beginning was wrong. Perhaps it was a product of his arrogant entitlement ideology of emi lokan (it’s my turn).
He wrote off the Southeast and South-south and put all his proverbial eggs in the northern basket. He went all in, gambling that the north would deliver for him and that, combined with the southwestern vote, that would give him the presidency.
It was always a risky electoral strategy. Firstly, it overly relies on the support of APC governors and other APC stakeholders in the north. It overestimates the political capital of the APC governors and stakeholders in the region, given Buhari/APC's woeful performance and its discrediting effect on everyone associated with the party.
Perhaps BAT's thinking was that the APC northern political elite would rig the poll for him. That, unfortunately for him, has been made quite difficult by the advent of BVAS and electronic vote transmission.
The Osun ruling from yesterday is a further disincentive for rigging since any serious discrepancy between declared votes and the number of BVAS-accredited voters will render a victory invalid. Politicians may be more less inclined to rig considering yesterday's judgment that hinged on over-voting.
Secondly, BAT's strategy overly relied on hitching himself to Buhari. That strategy was flawed last year and is even more flawed today. It overestimates the extent to which Buhari still holds sway over the Northern masses.
Conversely, it underestimates or even ignores the anger and opposition towards Buhari and APC at the Northern political grassroots, a resentment borne out of the catastrophic failure of Buhari in the North in particular. The resulting disappointment runs deep.
This is 2023, not 2015. I often shake my head when I read Southwestern political analysts and pundits, including Tinubu's people, talk about Buhari's cult-like following in the north. Even in January 2023, I still hear and read that outdated claim. It was true in 2015. It is now pure fiction.
Not only is that narrative not true today, but the northern masses have in fact turned decisively against Buhari/APC. The cult-like adulation of 2015 has transformed into an implacable angst against Buhari/APC. Tinubu is using the political reality, language, and rhetoric of 2015 to campaign in 2022/23. His strategists have completely missed the recent radical shift in the political mood of the northern electorate.
And so, Tinubu and his strategists continue to believe that pandering to Buhari, professing love for him, and drawing ever closer to him would translate to votes in the north. That wrong prognosis is what is informing their strategy.
The interesting thing is that Tinubu, in his Ogun state rally speech, seemed to have inadvertently thrown off the yoke of his inexplicable loyalty to Buhari, a bromance or pretended political bromance that is now an electoral liability in the region that holds the key to his victory--the north.
When he blamed Buhari and the cabal for sabotaging his campaign, he was finally finding his own voice and separating himself from his burdensome and increasingly costly embrace of Buhari.
Even if this was not what he intended, strategically, it was a good thing for him. It would enable him to ditch his counterproductive over-reliance on Buhari and the APC northern elite and give him a rhetorical platform to appeal directly to northern voters by demonstrating to them that he is his own man, is not beholden to Buhari and APC, their tormentors in the last seven years, and that were he to win, he would move in a different direction.
Did Buhari stay the course in this new independent path that could help him? No. Instead he and his aides have, for 48 hours straight, been kissing and making up with Buhari. They've been mollifying Buhari. They're backtracking and restating Tinubu's admiration for Buhari and his commitment to their friendship.
More egregiously, they've been repeating Tinubu's ill-advised and losing rhetoric that he would continue with Buhari's achievements and policies if elected.
His Ogun State speech gave him a golden opportunity to finally break away from the losing message of wanting to continue from where Buhari stops, but instead of sticking with the newly minted anti-Buhari rhetoric, he and his handlers went right back to the failing messaging of wanting to be Buhari 2.0.
They continue to gamble foolishly on Buhari's eroded political goodwill in the north and the largely impotent support of northern APC political leaders while neglecting the critical task of appealing to and changing the minds of an increasingly anti-APC northern electorate.
Even if Buhari was still popular in the north, Buhari’s refusal to directly boost Tinubu or campaign for him in the north should have taught Tinubu a lesson: that kissing up to Buhari is a losing strategy even in the north. In 2023.
Some may argue that Tinubu has no choice but to cling to Buhari and that, given his gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges, this is his only remaining card to play even if it’s fraught with risk and is proving detrimental.
I don’t agree. If unfavorable electoral dynamics and political events compel you to gamble, the most reasonable gamble is to separate yourself from a failed president and hope that it helps you with an electorate disillusioned with that president.
Has he lost the election?
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Moses
I am not defending OBA, but your tone is suggestive that he has lost an election. The theory of mistake(s) is dual: a process and an outcome, and the weight is tilted more to the latter.
If the tone is “why Tinubu may lose the election,” the essay would not have been misread, as you are discussing the process without knowing the outcome.
I am not a Tinubu person, before I get hit by our many readers. I have lost complete interest in Nigerian democracy.
TF
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On Jan 29, 2023, at 12:06 PM, Folami Kolade <kollyj...@gmail.com> wrote:
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Okey:
Why not raise the issues and let us debate?
TF
From: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Okey Iheduru <okeyi...@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 1:19 PM
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Moses:
The idea that the Yoruba are not Muslim enough predated the birth of Tinubu. Yoruba are “pagan Muslims.” I can recite the Fathia, as it is so common that there is not much to it. I wander in the streets a lot and the main mosque at Onigbongbo has next to it a drinking place owned by Genesis, an Igbo man. I drink there, and you see people leaving the mosque to drink beer.
Having said this, I am responding to a debate. Debates are very healthy, as long as one sees them as a movement of ideas that are unstable. I don’t know who is going to win this election. All election analyses have a life span of 24 hours. In my own analysis, Obi is short by 4 states in all possible permutations, and what Obi gets Atiku loses.
All elections are about calculations, and it is when we see the outcome that we know what worked and what failed. What we do not see may count more than what we see, as stakeholders calculate how they will part of the state capture.
TF
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Nigeria could be seen as a microcosm of Africa. That being the case, it’s now almost an African / Pan-African proverb /an axiomatic truism that if Nigeria makes it, then the rest of Africa could also succeed. That’s why our attention is riveted on the forthcoming Nigerian Elections slated for 25th February 2023. Everybody’s agreed that whatever unproven, radically new or useless, retrogressively old direction the country will take will begin with leadership quality. Right now, we can see how Bola Tinubu transformed Lagos and therefore surmise that given just half a chance, he could be poised to do the same with the whole country. Better the old devil that you know, than the devil that you don’t know, the other devil that’s trying to tell you that he’s the new 62-year-old new kid on the block, that he’s the second Moses, that he’s a saint, that he’s Peter the new rock, that he’s the messiah, that he’s Mister Miracle Man, that he’s going to transform water into oil, that he’s going to perform even greater wonders, the wonders that he never performed as governor of his native Anambra. And how do you like that? ….
It’s no exaggeration, it’s totally accurate that the honest and straightforward and the well-meaning observers and bystanders too are aggrieved and in our hearts weep bitter tears. We are exceedingly angry, frustrated, disappointed and feel betrayed, because this sleeping giant of a country that has been gifted with such great human potential and natural resources has been systematically devastated, literally, incrementally plundered and now sunk to the ground zero level of human development, by corruption.
Not only in Nigeria, when the time for the next election is near, but that’s also the time when old and new parties with a few old crooks, some of them newly minted, others merely being recycled so-called honourable men, all of them being repackaged and packeted by their media spin doctors as unsoiled goods - some of them already with an unenviable track record of corruption, suddenly pop up to start singing the pious refrain once again, apparently to fool the masses: “ I shall put an end to corruption!” - “Zero tolerance for corruption !” - “This is the new broom that will sweep clean!”
I dislike the acerbic tone and tenor of Moses Ochonu’s drift, most intensely and would like to register that I detest him imputing that an honourable aspirant, an elder gentleman of the statute of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Adekunle Tinubu could want to rig himsled0f to victory :
“Perhaps BAT's thinking was that the APC northern political elite would rig the poll for him.” ( According to Moses Ochonu). We don’t have to be both disingenuous and wilfully rude at the same time, do we?
Reminds me of the lyrics from another song, Master Song :
I suppose that Bola Tinubu told you everything, that he keeps locked away in his head?
The 9th Commandment: You shall not bear false witness against your neighbour.
There's so much more to take up, but, for the time being, I'll stop here and go no further.
On Jan 29, 2023, at 3:31 PM, Toyin Falola <toyin...@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:
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“I am not a Tinubu person, before I get hit by our many readers. I have lost complete interest in Nigerian democracy.” TF
Segun Ogungbemi.
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Correction . Should read : “Everybody’s agreed that whatever unproven, radically new or useless, retrogressively old direction the country will take will depend on leadership quality. Right now, we can see how Bola Tinubu transformed Lagos and therefore surmise that given just half a chance, he could be poised to do the same with the whole country. "
Talk is cheap.
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The piece below is by Toyin Adepoju, and not Moses Ochonu.
Permission may not be necessary if you reference the source.
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On Jan 30, 2023, at 5:20 AM, Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD. <yink...@gmail.com> wrote:
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Moses:
One issue is missing from your analysis: state capture. Nigerians confuse politics with governance, which is why they clap for a governor who commissions a bridge as if democracy is necessary to build one.
Who are those forces who want to capture the state? A small cabal must control the oil from the Niger Delta (revenues are diminishing), the Lagos port (it brings more revenues that the entire budget of Ghana), and extract gold and run away with them in the middle of the night. With my base in Austin, I don’t know what they are whispering. Politics is not controlled by rallies but by whispers. Who controls the gossip chain? I know how it works in Ibadan!
Power in Nigeria is not to deliver good governance, unfortunately.
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With all of Trump’s taunts about “ Sleepy Joe Biden”, Sleepy Joe won and is even contemplating re-election two years from now when he would have attained the ripe old age of 82 years - the new 50 - and still kicking, two years older than Moses, when he led the Children of Israel out of Egypt for a 40-year trek through the wilderness.
Seriously: On the BBC World News today: Nigerians leaving Nigeria in droves because of the economic situation
Question arising: Which of Nigeria’s presidential hopefuls would be most likely to steer the ship of state, to turn things around for the better, not as a merry-go-round, to lead Nigerians back from the wilderness to the Promised Land?
Nigeria's pontificating pundits, some of them not even living in Nigeria and observing first hand, in touch with the current temperature, the political weather, and the atmosphere, are nevertheless upbeat that according to their calculations, 76-year-old Atku ( of whom Pastor Obasanjo said “ God will never forgive me if I support Atiku for President'') is all set to win the next presidential election and take over as commander-in-chief of the national treasury, the military etc. I can hardly believe that, or their maths, although one cannot rule out in the interests of what Toyin Adepoju fears as “ Northern Hegemony”, a silent Northern conspiracy - a tacit understanding…how Nigeria should be governed for the next four years, and of course, including how the loot should be shared…
With some of the pundits’ emphasis on 70-year-old Bola Tinubu's age and the constant reference to what they say is “a medical condition “ - it could be - God forbid a replay of the so-called Yar'adua factor, meaning that all Bola Ahmed Tinubu has to do is to resign within months of winning the Presidential election and for e.g. Northerners who may be voting with their heads, not with their feet, this consideration that Kashim Shettima is a heartbeat away from the presidency, a win-win situation and could make a difference to how they vote.
Food for thought: Rishon…
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Dr. Oyeniyi,Let me be a good Nigerian and answer your first and second questions with two questions. Where in my piece did I state that the election has been conducted, won, and lost? Is there a rule that says observers cannot pontificate or analyze an election or its trends until it is conducted?You say you’re not a northerner so cannot speak to Buhari’s current political standing among the northern masses. Then listen to a “northerner” who grew up in the north and studies the region for a living.
Tinubu is losing the election. Atiku is winning. May God help Nigeria.
On Sun, Jan 29, 2023 at 10:12 AM Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi <oyen...@gmail.com> wrote:
Dr. Ochonu,Permit me to learn more from you and consequently educate myself by your answers to the following questions.1. Has the election been conducted? If so, who won? If not, how did you know that Tinubu has lost the election?2. You noted that Buhari failed without as much as itemizing the indicators with which you arrive at your conclusions.Yes, I know that Nigeria's economy is moribund and insecurity is at its highest levels, however, economic crisis is commonplace, even in advanced democracy. I was at Walmart just yesterday night and a crate of egg sold for 5.00 USD.3. I am not a northerner and therefore cannot speak to the acceptance or otherwise of Buhari across the north.Sir, I do not think social media is also a barometer to gauge Buhari's or anyone's acceptance, especially in Nigeria. How then do you come to the conclusion that Northern youths have dumped Buhari?Thank you for your time.Bukola
On Sun, Jan 29, 2023, 10:49 AM Toyin Falola <toyin...@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:
Has he lost the election?
From: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Moses Ebe Ochonu <meoc...@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 10:15 AM
To: USAAfricaDialogue <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy
BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY
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Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju,
Thinking aloud, wondering what kind of impact it would have on the outcome of this presidential election if Diaspora Nigerians were registered to vote, and why Diaspora Nigerians can’t vote, taking into consideration that Diaspora Nigerians also constitute part of the brain-drain intelligentsia, those who are disaffected with the situation back home, economic refugees, and of course the bulk of whom contribute to the Nigerian economy by sending their very helpful remittances to Nigeria, in 2021, said to have been more than 20 billion dollars.
Surely Diaspora Nigerians ought to have a sayso and a democratic right to vote in Nigerian elections?
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Re - “...listen to a “northerner” who grew up in the north and studies the region for a living.” ( Professor Moses Ochonu)
Discussing the Middle East some years ago a certain Professor Blake told me that he taught journalism and the Middle East for a living. BTW, he should go and tell that to Ted Belmanm, to Professor Mark R Cohen , who asked me in 2005 “ Do I know you?” - and that was in response to my taking a distance to his saying back then, that peace ( the missing piece) in the Middle East) was just round the corner) , and about teaching whatever or whoever it is that he teaches for a living, Professor Blakey should go and tell that to Mahmoud Abbas whose Phd Thesis was al-Wajh al-Akhar: al-'Alaqat as-Sirriya bayna an-Naziya wa's-Sihyuniya
When it comes to Nigeria too, there are various convictions, realties, levels of all kinds of poverty, spiritual, material, intellectual, there’s the North, the South, the East, the West, the so called “Middle Belt”, the South-South, the South-East, the North-West, the North-East , the equation 2 Nigerians = 3 opinions, the multiplicity= 240 ethnicities, and then there are the Muslims, the Owerri-Jews, the various apostles of this and that Christianity fraternity, The AroChukwu, the Ogboni, the upper echelons of Naija Society, and the lower echelons, the plebeians like me, the vermin ( blessed are the low in spirit ) and blessed are the low in expectations, there’s even the so called “ Labour Party” being led by an “old youth”, the 62-year-old new kid on the block, Peter Obi, the Anamba tycoon
It’s mainly a three horse race isn’t it : Atiku who some ivory tower armchair pundits swear is being ridden by the likes of Lester Piggott, there’s the Hon Bola Tinubu , and there Oga Obi and what will be will be…
It should be good to hear directly from the horse’s mouth from 11 mins and 30 seconds into the recording: BBC Focus on Africa : Nigeria elections: Atiku Abubakar making sixth presidential bid - some of what he says is simply amazing!
From 2 days ago — The BBC explores key contenders, voter issues and why this ballot is different to previous ones.: Nigeria elections 2023: What you need to know - BBC News
Atiku latest : Atiku Abubakar says 'nothing new' in corruption allegations made against him
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Adepoju:
I was wondering if you have read Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves released in 1944, remade as The Sword of Ali Baba (1965). The book sees thieves as freedom fighters against Mongol oppression, and Ali Baba as their leader.
TF
From: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Oluwatoyin Adepoju <ovde...@gmail.com>
Date: Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 12:41 PM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>
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Nigeria does not have political parties, as your analysis assumes, and as we study in textbooks. It has a band of thieves who come together under an umbrella association. We have only the TTP—Thief Thief Party.
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Sobering indeed, especially for the inebriated. We must not give in to despair and frustration
It is out of the fullness of the heart ( the seat of the intellect) that Ojogbon Falola has spoken
As Mr Eliot put it, “the human soul, in intense emotion, strives to express itself in verse”
Reality:
“No reason to get excited”, the thief, he kindly spoke
“There are many here among us who feel that life is but a joke
But you and I, we've been through that, and this is not our fate
So let us not talk falsely, the hour is getting late”
The Eighth Commandment which reads “Thou shalt not steal” and the Quran’s prohibitions against stealing have to be drafted into the Constitution and the Criminal code. As a consequence, crime has to be followed by punishment, in order to establish the rule of law, otherwise, it will be mere anarchy - a free-for-all in which for example, as just reported, we are experiencing live and direct, a situation in which we have “terrorists carting away truckloads of the new naira “ whilst the law-abiding are suffering, not smiling
The country has to produce honest, well-trained judges and no one can disagree with Ojogbon’s diagnosis, that no nation can afford to have the mafia in charge of political parties, the military and the police…