Bola Tinubu's Self-Immolating Strategy

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

 

BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY

Moses E. Ochonu

 

Tinubu's strategy from the very beginning was wrong. Perhaps it was a product of his arrogant entitlement ideology of emi lokan (it’s my turn).

 

He wrote off the Southeast and South-south and put all his proverbial eggs in the northern basket. He went all in, gambling that the north would deliver for him and that, combined with the southwestern vote, that would give him the presidency.

 

It was always a risky electoral strategy. Firstly, it overly relies on the support of APC governors and other APC stakeholders in the north. It overestimates the political capital of the APC governors and stakeholders in the region, given Buhari/APC's woeful performance and its discrediting effect on everyone associated with the party.

 

Perhaps BAT's thinking was that the APC northern political elite would rig the poll for him. That, unfortunately for him, has been made quite difficult by the advent of BVAS and electronic vote transmission. 

 

The Osun ruling from yesterday is a further disincentive for rigging since any serious discrepancy between declared votes and the number of BVAS-accredited voters will render a victory invalid. Politicians may be more less inclined to rig considering yesterday's judgment that hinged on over-voting.

 

Secondly, BAT's strategy overly relied on hitching himself to Buhari. That strategy was flawed last year and is even more flawed today. It overestimates the extent to which Buhari still holds sway over the Northern masses. 

Conversely, it underestimates or even ignores the anger and opposition towards Buhari and APC at the Northern political grassroots, a resentment borne out of the catastrophic failure of Buhari in the North in particular. The resulting disappointment runs deep.

 

This is 2023, not 2015. I often shake my head when I read Southwestern political analysts and pundits, including Tinubu's people, talk about Buhari's cult-like following in the north. Even in January 2023, I still hear and read that outdated claim. It was true in 2015. It is now pure fiction.

 

Not only is that narrative not true today, but the northern masses have in fact turned decisively against Buhari/APC. The cult-like adulation of 2015 has transformed into an implacable angst against Buhari/APC. Tinubu is using the political reality, language, and rhetoric of 2015 to campaign in 2022/23. His strategists have completely missed the recent radical shift in the political mood of the northern electorate.

 

And so, Tinubu and his strategists continue to believe that pandering to Buhari, professing love for him, and drawing ever closer to him would translate to votes in the north. That wrong prognosis is what is informing their strategy.

 

The interesting thing is that Tinubu, in his Ogun state rally speech, seemed to have inadvertently thrown off the yoke of his inexplicable loyalty to Buhari, a bromance or pretended political bromance that is now an electoral liability in the region that holds the key to his victory--the north.

 

When he blamed Buhari and the cabal for sabotaging his campaign, he was finally finding his own voice and separating himself from his burdensome and increasingly costly embrace of Buhari. 

 

Even if this was not what he intended, strategically, it was a good thing for him. It would enable him to ditch his counterproductive over-reliance on Buhari and the APC northern elite and give him a rhetorical platform to appeal directly to northern voters by demonstrating to them that he is his own man, is not beholden to Buhari and APC, their tormentors in the last seven years, and that were he to win, he would move in a different direction.

 

Did Buhari stay the course in this new independent path that could help him? No. Instead he and his aides have, for 48 hours straight, been kissing and making up with Buhari. They've been mollifying Buhari. They're backtracking and restating Tinubu's admiration for Buhari and his commitment to their friendship.

 

More egregiously, they've been repeating Tinubu's ill-advised and losing rhetoric that he would continue with Buhari's achievements and policies if elected.

 

His Ogun State speech gave him a golden opportunity to finally break away from the losing message of wanting to continue from where Buhari stops, but instead of sticking with the newly minted anti-Buhari rhetoric, he and his handlers went right back to the failing messaging of wanting to be Buhari 2.0.

 

They continue to gamble foolishly on Buhari's eroded political goodwill in the north and the largely impotent support of northern APC political leaders while neglecting the critical task of appealing to and changing the minds of an increasingly anti-APC northern electorate.

 

Even if Buhari was still popular in the north, Buhari’s refusal to directly boost Tinubu or campaign for him in the north should have taught Tinubu a lesson: that kissing up to Buhari is a losing strategy even in the north. In 2023.

 

Some may argue that Tinubu has no choice but to cling to Buhari and that, given his gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges, this is his only remaining card to play even if it’s fraught with risk and is proving detrimental. 

 

I don’t agree. If unfavorable electoral dynamics and political events compel you to gamble, the most reasonable gamble is to separate yourself from a failed president and hope that it helps you with an electorate disillusioned with that president.

 

 

[Toyin Falola]

Has he lost the election?

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[Tunde Oloro]

Very strong comment, sir. 

Perhaps, BAT may teach us POL 101 with this election, seeing he has not lost any election in the past,  not even ones he openly supported. 

I'm learning everyday here, sir! 

--

[RAHEEM Oluwafunminiyi]

It appears so, given the balkanising votes across the board. This election may go into a rerun. 

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[Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi]

Dr. Ochonu,

Permit me to learn more from you and consequently educate myself by your answers to the following questions.

1. Has the election been conducted? If so,  who won? If not, how did you know that Tinubu has lost the election?

2. You noted that Buhari failed without as much as itemizing the indicators with which you arrive at your conclusions. 

Yes, I know that Nigeria's economy is moribund and insecurity is at its highest levels, however, economic crisis is commonplace, even in advanced democracy. I was at Walmart just yesterday night and a crate of egg sold for 5.00 USD. 

3. I am not a northerner and therefore cannot speak to the acceptance or otherwise of Buhari across the north. 

Sir, I do not think social media is also a barometer to gauge Buhari's or anyone's acceptance, especially in Nigeria. How then do you come to the conclusion that Northern youths have dumped Buhari?

Thank you for your time. 

Bukola

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[Folami Kolade]

Tinubu is losing the election. Atiku is winning. May God help Nigeria.

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[Moses Ochonu]

Dr. Oyeniyi,

Let me be a good Nigerian and answer your first and second questions with two questions. Where in my piece did I state that the election has been conducted, won, and lost? Is there a rule that says observers cannot pontificate or analyze an election or its trends until it is conducted?

You say you’re not a northerner so cannot speak to Buhari’s current political standing among the northern masses. Then listen to a “northerner” who grew up in the north and studies the region for a living.

Cheers.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 29, 2023, at 11:31 AM, Folami Kolade <kollyj...@gmail.com> wrote:



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[Toyin Falola]

Moses
I am not defending OBA, but your tone is suggestive that he has lost an election. The theory of mistake(s) is dual: a process and an outcome, and the weight is tilted more to the latter.

If the tone is “why Tinubu may lose the election,” the essay would not have been misread, as you are discussing the process without knowing the outcome.

 

I am not a Tinubu person, before I get hit by our many readers. I have lost complete interest in Nigerian democracy.

TF

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[Folami Kolade]

Sir, without holding a brief for Professor Ochonu, I am responding to the issue of the 5.00 dollar egg in Walmart. For me, it is not the same as the Nigerian economic crises. I left Nigeria for the US in 2021. In 2021 the price of a crate of eggs in Nigeria was 800 naira. At that time a dollar was exchanged for naira @ around 400. That is 2 dollars per crate. I could not afford to buy a crate per month because as a teacher, all I earned per month was less than 200 dollars. But here in the US as a TA, the egg  @ 5.00 $ per crate is highly affordable for me and I buy it regularly. So the comparison is unfair here. I saw the same thing in your article, criticizing Kunle Afolayan's 'Anikulapo' by comparing it to the big budget and Hollywood-sponsored "Woman King". These are unfair comparisons, sir. 

On Sun, Jan 29, 2023 at 10:12 AM Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi <oyen...@gmail.com> wrote:

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[Moses Ochonu]

Quite frankly, any Nigerian who is still asking for evidence of Buhari’s failure or raising distracting comparisons to the US is playing games and does not deserved to be engaged in an age of competing demands on one’s time.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 29, 2023, at 12:06 PM, Folami Kolade <kollyj...@gmail.com> wrote:



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[Oyeniyi Bukola Adeyemi]

Dr. Ochonu,

Thank you for your response. TF has said it all.

Clearly, you are not saying that whatever you said with respect to the North is the gospel truth. 

Thank you for the education. 

Bukola

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[Okey Iheduru]

Nigeria's "intellectual" class; or, is it the "intelligentsia"! Not one serious engagement with the issues raised in Prof. Ochonu's article. Instead, we see distractions that betray the usual salivating for impending ethno-class harvest. It's 2015 (twenty-fifteen) 2.0!

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Okey C. Iheduru

e-mail: okeyi...@gmail.com

Recently published:

"A ‘fateful compromise’? Transnational religious organizations and regional governance in Africa," Territory, Politics, Governance: A Journal of Regional Studies Association, DOI: 10.1080/21622671.2022.2160371

[Toyin Falola]

Okey:

Why not raise the issues and let us debate?

TF

 

From: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Okey Iheduru <okeyi...@gmail.com>

Date: Sunday, January 29, 2023 at 1:19 PM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>

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[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

For additional context, here's my Facebook update from two days ago:

In truth, Tinubu’s unraveling did not start with Naja’atu or fuel queues or Naira redesign or inflation. These are just opportunistic and fortuitous pile-ons. As they say, when it rains, it pours.

Tinubu’s wahala [in the north] started when he tried but failed to recite the Fatiha, the foundational, opening Surah of the Qur’an, in the Kaduna northwest zonal campaign rally.

That calamitous outing in a zone where politics and religion are entwined is hard to recover from. The error amplified and gave credence to rumors and innuendos already rife in Arewa subterranean grassroots and social media outposts about the legitimacy of Tinubu’s Muslim identity and devotion.

It was an unforced error, really, a self-inflicted injury. Tinubu did not need to recite the Fatiha. Nor was he expected to. He was just trying to do too much, to use the language of our Gen Z interlocutors.

He was trying to overcompensate and pander to Muslim northerners who, because of his neglect of the Southeast and South-south, hold the key to his success or failure in the election.

The damage done by that misstep was already compounding before Naja’atu, Naira wahala, and fuel scarcity happened to him, a perfect storm of adversity at the worst possible time in the campaign.

And he’s responding poorly to the setbacks. Blaming Buhari and unnamed “they” in the government of his own party for sabotaging him further alienates the Buhari cabal from his catastrophic campaign.

His puerile outburst in Ogun state also reinforces the impression that he’s losing grip on the election and making preemptive excuses for an imminent loss. Only a losing candidate complains of a conspiracy against them by their own incumbent party.

All of this has an air of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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[Okey Iheduru]

Oga TF:

Moses has already LOUDLY and UNAMBIGUOUSLY laid out the issues in his write-up, given the wealth of information and professional knowledge available to him at this time. Those who disagree with him could pen a serious riposte to his claims, assertions, and conclusions, rather than engage in linguistic gymnastics that betray their ethno-regional and class biases. 

Okey

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[Toyin Falola]

Moses:

The idea that the Yoruba are not Muslim enough predated the birth of Tinubu. Yoruba are “pagan Muslims.” I can recite the Fathia, as it is so common that there is not much to it. I wander in the streets a lot and the main mosque at Onigbongbo has next to it a drinking place owned by Genesis, an Igbo man. I drink there, and you see people leaving the mosque to drink beer.

Having said this, I am responding to a debate. Debates are very healthy, as long as one sees them as a movement of ideas that are unstable. I don’t know who is going to win this election. All election analyses have a life span of 24 hours. In my own analysis, Obi is short by 4 states in all possible permutations, and what Obi gets Atiku loses.

All elections are about calculations, and it is when we see the outcome that we know what worked and what failed. What we do not see may count more than what we see, as stakeholders calculate how they will part of the state capture.

TF

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[Cornelius Hamelberg]

Nigeria could be seen as a microcosm of Africa. That being the case, it’s now almost an African / Pan-African proverb /an axiomatic truism that if Nigeria makes it, then the rest of Africa could also succeed. That’s why our attention is riveted on the forthcoming Nigerian Elections slated for 25th February 2023. Everybody’s agreed that whatever unproven, radically new or useless, retrogressively old direction the country will take will begin with leadership quality. Right now,  we can see how Bola Tinubu transformed Lagos and therefore surmise that given just half a chance, he could be poised to do the same with the whole country. Better the old devil that you know, than the devil that you don’t know, the other devil that’s trying to tell you that he’s the new 62-year-old new kid on the block, that he’s the second Moses, that he’s a saint, that he’s Peter the new rock, that he’s the messiah,  that he’s Mister  Miracle Man, that he’s going to transform water into oil, that he’s going to perform even greater wonders, the wonders that he never performed as governor of his native Anambra. And how do you like that? ….

It’s no exaggeration, it’s totally accurate that the honest and straightforward and the well-meaning observers and bystanders too are aggrieved and in our hearts weep bitter tears. We are exceedingly angry, frustrated, disappointed and feel betrayed, because this sleeping giant of a country that has been gifted with such great human potential and natural resources has been systematically devastated, literally, incrementally plundered and now sunk to the ground zero level of human development, by corruption. 

Not only in Nigeria, when the time for the next election is near, but that’s also the time when old and new parties with a few old crooks, some of them  newly minted, others merely being  recycled so-called honourable men, all of them being repackaged  and packeted by their media spin doctors as unsoiled goods  - some of them already with an unenviable track record of corruption, suddenly pop up to start singing the pious refrain once again, apparently to fool the masses:  “ I shall put an end to corruption!”  - “Zero tolerance for corruption !” - “This is the new broom that will sweep clean!” 

I dislike the acerbic tone and tenor of Moses Ochonu’s drift, most intensely and would like to register that I detest him imputing that an honourable aspirant, an elder gentleman of the statute of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Adekunle Tinubu could want to rig himsled0f to victory :

“Perhaps BAT's thinking was that the APC northern political elite would rig the poll for him.” ( According to Moses Ochonu).  We don’t have to be both disingenuous and wilfully rude at the same time, do we?

Reminds me of the lyrics from another song, Master Song   : 

I suppose that Bola Tinubu told you everything, that he keeps locked away in his head?

The 9th Commandment:  You shall not bear false witness against your neighbour.

There's so much more to take up, but, for the time being, I'll stop here and go no further. 

[Moses Ochonu]

Oga TF,

Of course all election analyses are provisional and speculative—informed speculation. No one has a crystal ball. And as they say 24 hours is an eternity in politics. But that does not mean that we shouldn’t analyze trends as they emerge and extrapolate plausible conclusions from them.

My own permutation is somewhat similar to yours, which is that Obi lacks the national spread. That said, the north is getting away fast from Tinubu, so it’s looking like Atiku’s election to lose if the current trend holds, as the primordial forces of the north are coalescing around Atiku. He’ll get the most likely to get the required 25% in 2/3 of states. Obi and Tinubu will struggle to get that required constitutional percentage spread. 

Additionally, Tinubu begins with a narrow electoral map of 4 zones (SW, NC, NW, NE) since he wrote off SS and SE. If he loses the vote-rich NW and NE, which is looking likely, it’s game over for him. For Obi everything rests on his enthusiasm and youth edge. 

Young people and educated people are notoriously unreliable voters, but if they show up big for him he could pull a surprise by coming first or second in the popular vote since he begins with the SE and SS locked in. He already has Benue and Plateau and may get FCT and Taraba. He’ll be very competitive in Nassarawa and will get 25 percent in Kogi.

If Obi manages to win the popular vote, a big if, we’re heading to a runoff. Even if he doesn’t, he could as you said deny Atiku an outright win by taking away his 25% in 2/3.

For me, I see Tinubu’s path as the narrowest unless something drastic happens in the next 27 days to change his fortunes in the NW and NE and make him more competitive there. Everyone knows that his path to victory runs through those two zones. The only state Tinubu will get in the NC is Kwara and I am told that the Saraki factor and the lingering APC crisis there may make Atiku competitive there.

Sent from my iPhone

On Jan 29, 2023, at 3:31 PM, Toyin Falola <toyin...@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:



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[segun...@gmail.com]

I admire the position of TF and his conclusion quoted below. 

“I am not a Tinubu person, before I get hit by our many readers. I have lost complete interest in Nigerian democracy.” TF 

 Segun Ogungbemi. 

-- 

Sent from my iPhone

--

[Cornelius Hamelberg]

Correction . Should read : “Everybody’s agreed that whatever unproven, radically new or useless, retrogressively old direction the country will take will depend on leadership quality. Right now,  we can see how Bola Tinubu transformed Lagos and therefore surmise that given just half a chance, he could be poised to do the same with the whole country. "

 Talk is cheap.

[Oluwatoyin Adepoju]

May Tinubu and his Boko Haram stained partner Shettima not win. May Atiku, who has been compliant through silence and obfuscation on terrorism  from imperialists among his fellow Fulani, not win.

All Moses has done is analyze Tinubu's political strategy and its implications, no more. He has not spoken for or against him. He has not added something also significant, what might be a growing disenchantment with Tinubu even in the SW.

I was shocked to observe anti-Tinubu sentiment even among the admittedly few academic and non-academic staff I interacted with at Obafemi Awolowo University  late last year,  a place where Yoruba is the lingua franca, even among academics.

It also seems that aspects of the Tinubu legacy have soured a significant number of people in the SW. One of these is what may be called the Agbero Factor, the use of a motley band of people, often associated with the National Road Transport Workers union, as informal tax collectors and political enablers, leading to the fleecing of transporters and thuggery.

Watching the Covenant church organised discussion among gubernatorial contenders on Channels TV yesterday, a discussion that the APC/Tinubu candidate, Lagos state governor Sanwo Olu chose not to attend, I got the impression that the Tinubu era in SW politics might be coming to an end, having been battered both by its own internal contradictions and the terrible fallout from the alliance with Buhari.

I remain amazed at Tinubu's choice of Shettima as his running mate, wondering the kind of risky calculations  informing that move, something that Tinubu loyalists I have spoken with have not been able to reasonably justify.

Tinubu's story might be  best appreciated in comparison with that of Awo, the quintessential hero of SW politics and the most illustrious  figure from the region in national politics.

Awo and Tinubu represent the tension in that region's politics between regional consolidation and national reach, particularly in relation to efforts to rule the country,  a struggle also marked in Northern politics, an oscillation pursued with most success by Northern military and political figures,  with Buhari being the most successful, ironically with the help of Tinubu and his compatriots, as Tinubu outlined in his emilokan speech.

Awo's role in the civil war and his subsequent politics may be seen as nationalistic orientations,  but which yet failed to give him the Presidency, leaving his achievements in the SW his largely incontestable legacy.

Tinubu created a political empire in the SW and is trying to extend it into becoming President, using an alliance that was risky at the onset and has proven cancerous in its maturation.

What options were open to Tinubu, given what some see as the sidelining of the SW in the most strategic appointments in the GEJ govt, even though Adesina's achievement in that cabinet is understood as exemplary by many? Various forces were arrayed against GEJ, who was perhaps pushing his luck too far in seeking a second term after completing Yaradua's term and his own first term. Tinubu and others successfully constellated those forces in forcing GEJ out.

Tinubu needs a strategy that will manage the Buhari liability and other liabilities he is suffering, referenced by Moses as  ''gaffes, cognitive decline, and health challenges'' a description for which there is evidence in favour of, whatever one might think of the evidence.

A touching story. As one view put it, having positioned himself and others for decades at lower levels, his best chance for the highest level arrives when time is far advanced, when health issues are unhelpful, when the alliance on which so much was staked, so much history revised to support, is proving problematic.

May he not win.

May the man who was silent while the SW and the nation was ravaged by Fulani imperialists and bandits, a person who has elevated to the national stage Kassim Shettima, the figure who enabled the Chibok kidnapping by keeping the Chibok school open against the orders of the fed govt and in whose governors lodge Boko Haram bomber, massacerer of innocents, Kabiru Sokoto, is described as having been  found, the man who enabled a clearly terorrism sympathetic, violent figure whose supporters have massacred others for him, into reaching the Presidency,  not win.

Thanks

Toyin

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[Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD.]

Prof Ochonu,

Permission to share and publish this on a website I managed, please.

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Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD. 
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3) 2003 World Health Organisation (WHO) Fellowship in Public Health
Journalism, Geneva, Switzerland

4) 2001 Steve Biko Memorial Scholars' Fellowship, Johannesburg, South Africa

[Toyin Falola]

The piece below is by Toyin Adepoju, and not Moses Ochonu.

Permission may not be necessary if you reference the source.

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[Olayinka Oyegbile, PhD.]

It's the piece on Tinubu by Ochonu that I'm talking about. Titled BOLA TINUBU'S SELF-IMMOLATING STRATEGY

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