Dear OA,
The questions you raised are beyond my immediate interest, but I find them meaningful. I will share with you how I think about some of these issues.
1) Who is threatened by the Sheik? I will say both the Nigerian state and the Emir. Indeed, including some ordinary citizens. I know the Sheik since when I was an undergraduate at Bayero University, Kano. I remember that he was a good speaker but at that time he was more like a firebrand critique of the system in general. He is now clearly the leader of a religious sect that has strong connections with Iran and maybe Southern Iraq. I will add that many Nigerian Muslims feel uncomfortable with the Shi'a sect. But that is not surprising, the early Christians in the Roman Empire were considered anti-social as well. They had to work hard to mainstream their faith. Religious organizations compete for market share and in the process they do accuse each other a lot in order to legitimize their brand.
In some northern local communities, even the Izala people are not fully embraced because of their teaching, although one of my classmates in Bauchi is Izala and we still talk regularly. Some of my undergraduates classmates were also Izala and we used to discuss it I remember. I read about Izala in the biography of Sheik Gumi and sociologically, I thought they generated some interesting theological issues that challenged traditional Islam in the North. The book was co-written by Gumi and someone at BUK called Isma'ila Tsiga.
You may or may not be familiar maybe with the traditional structure of power in Northern cities. If you are familiar with that, it is easy to sense that the kind of veneration that the Sheik receives in the video is traditionally only reserved for the traditional rulers, even though this is religious. Indeed, some of the veneration the traditional rulers receive is more than that of the governor of a state when I was growing up.
We used to laugh in Bauchi when we discussed how one guy who is a civil servant mistakenly called a number and they said was the Emir of Bauchi palace. The man instinctively removed his shoes in the office out of the natural feeling to venerate or respect the institution. It is a sociological fact that when people are recognized as traditional authority in a place, any encroachment on what looks like their prerogative can definitely cause tension. The Sheik has surely created a competing center of power. I can observe that this will not be taken kindly since his teaching is not the type that will make a traditional ruler comfortable for good reasons. Whether this is is good or bad, is a matter of the reader's personal opinion. But I am just making an empirical observation. In some of the things I read, it was obvious that some people in the community while not supporting violence clearly felt the presence of the Sheik and his people as nuisance. It is a free market though. If the Sheik wants to takeover the North, he would have to innovate and accommodate as rational choice theorists like Rodney Stark would say. Competition even in religion force innovation. Whether that is good or bad is another matter.
As for the state, if you were able to read Hausa, the guys who commented on the video in Hausa who do not seem to be very high ranking people in the society were saying that seeing the kind of ceremony the Sheik had, it is obvious that the government will feel threatened. I think this is not the only place the Nigerian government feels threatened in my view. Religious communities in Nigeria in many respects constitute an alternative social order. This has become more pronounced over time. Some governors are going to religious leaders to seek for relevance politically. Al Ghazali is very unhappy about that. He prefers that no visit takes place between the political elite and religious leader but if it has to, he prefers the political elite visiting the religious leader. Al Ghazali is concerned about the possibility of corruption.
Indeed, in my assessment, because many religious organizations or communities form an alternative social order, their concept of citizenship is different from the one envisaged in the Nigerian constitution. I am not sure whether many realize that or not. For most of them, true citizenship is based on religious righteousness whether Christian or Muslim. The religious leaders, whether we like it or not, tend to have more influence on the minds and choices of many ordinary citizens than the state. This indicates a limit to the degree of state penetration in Africa, a point that Joel Migdal discusses at length, showing the implications of that for development in developing countries in his book, which is referenced here:
http://press.princeton.edu/titles/4280.htmlWe are talking about need for leaders in Nigeria. While we all agree on that, I am more interested in not just that being sated but seeing the complex situation on the ground which conceptual analysis can easily ignore because of its need for abstraction. Concrete attention to mechanism and process on the ground is very important for any serious political-economic analysis. Our modern state elites are not always the most powerful or influential people in the society as they appear formally, except for the money they control. Traditional rulers and religious leaders cannot be ignored. I have heard of people seeking position in the modern state (e.g., becoming a vice chancellors) but they had to go through a traditional ruler.