FWD: Carl Bildt : The US's commitment to NATO will probably become weaker regardless of who is elected president this fall,
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The US's commitment to NATO will probably become weaker regardless of who is elected president this fall, says former Minister of State and Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt.
He wants to see stronger defense cooperation in Europe and the Nordics within the framework of NATO. It can become a complement or alternative to NATO if required.
- In order to deal with a situation where the Americans will devote themselves more to Asia and less to Europe, we European NATO countries must take greater responsibility. And within the European pillar in NATO, I believe that we must also build a strong Nordic pillar, says Sweden's former Minister of State and Foreign Affairs (M).
Carl Bildt is temporarily at home in Stockholm, but immediately after the interview flies to Madrid for a conference on security and development in Europe, arranged by a think tank he sits on the board of.
He is also a state investigator for the Swedish intelligence service and also vice chairman of a large lobbying firm. In his various roles, from the Riksdag in the late 70s until now, he has followed security policy and NATO closely.
This week NATO will hold its summit and 75th anniversary in Washington DC. Throughout the meeting, but without being on the agenda, the question of what NATO's future will be if Donald Trump is re-elected as the next president of the United States rings out. The US is NATO's backbone, to put it in the words of Carl Bildt.
What would a Trump victory mean for NATO?
- We don't know that. That is one of the problems with Trump, that it is unpredictable. Sometimes he wanted to leave NATO when he was president. However, it stopped the previous administration.
- His role as commander-in-chief of the most important nation in NATO will be extremely significant. There, the question marks are much bigger. I'm less worried about him leaving NATO altogether.
As commander in chief, Donald Trump would have the authority to withdraw military forces from NATO. He can also, as president, veto NATO decisions, paralyzing them. There is strong concern among the European members of the defense alliance that Donald Trump would not want to sacrifice the lives of American soldiers to help a European country in trouble.
Carl Bildt does not want to speculate on what might happen. He is content to say that Trump's enthusiasm for intervening in support of European countries is probably less than that of the current president.
Does what is happening now around Biden's presidential candidacy affect NATO in any way?
- It does not affect NATO directly, but it is clear that it affects American credibility to some extent. The question is whether we will have a decision-making American president in the global space in the next four years. It leads to question marks around the world, it is undoubtedly so.
Despite the big differences between the main competitors Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Carl Bildt believes that the US will reduce its involvement in Europe regardless of who wins the election.
- Right now, the involvement is at a very high level with the Russian war. But there is no doubt that there is a slow shift of center of gravity towards the Pacific area and Southeast Asia, he says.
The reason is the threat the US experiences from China. This is a strong reason why Carl Bildt wants to build up European and Nordic defense cooperation, within the framework of NATO.
Does this mean that US support will become less important?
- It means that we can stand a little more on our own two feet, yes. But we will still be dependent on the US for the foreseeable future.
Carl Bildt says that it is possible to get a greater effect from the defense forces of the European NATO countries when they cooperate. It can also be a way to guard against an event where NATO's defense guarantee is not triggered, even though it has been invoked by some countries.
- Yes exactly. It can be, absolutely.
If Donald Trump were to win the election and take the US out of NATO, or veto important decisions.....
- Then we must have an increased independent European capacity. Then we have a European pillar that mostly works together with the Americans, but which also has an opportunity for more independence, which is actually a combination of NATO and the EU, he says, emptying his coffee cup and leaving for yet another airport.
