Elections

[Jibrin Ibrahim]

Credible 2027 Elections and National Security

Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy, Daily Trust, 27th March 2027

Yesterday, I participated in a workshop organised by the Alumni
Association of the National Association of Security Studies on the
theme of credible elections and national security in Nigeria. In his
opening remarks, the Chair of the occasion, INEC Chairman Joash
Amupitan SAN argued that elections and security are no parallel tracks
but two sides of the same coin of national stability. He promised that
under his leadership, the Commission’s approach to electoral
administration will be anchored on the supremacy of the Constitution
and the Electoral Act. He assured participants that INEC is committed
to a free, fair and credible election. The lead presenter, Barrister
Mike Igini, a former INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner gave an
excellent lecture on the challenges of organizing free, fair and
credible elections in Nigeria and the imperative of getting it right
because elections with integrity are fundamental to the functioning of
a democracy, serving as a means for citizens to choose their leaders
and hold them accountable.

Nigeria has a long history of electoral challenges that it has been
confronting because it has had a political class with limited respect
for citizens and their constitutional right of choosing those to
exercise power on their behalf. Specifically, electoral fraud has been
a significant challenge in Nigerian elections. This includes practices
such as vote-buying, ballot stuffing, and manipulation, and indeed,
the falsification of election results. Such behaviour has eroded trust
in the electoral process and undermined the legitimacy of election
outcomes.

Nigeria’s political class has also been effective in manipulating
ethnic and religious identities to favour outcomes that would create
bridges for them to accede to power. This has been at the cost of
exacerbating tensions and indeed violence in the political system.
This behaviour has been generating conflicts and undermining the
democratic system. The influence of money in Nigerian politics has
also been growing over the period and the people’s mandate, the vote,
has been turned into a mundane commodity that is bought and sold to
the highest bidder. The fact that poverty has been growing and
deepening means that more people are being pushed into the unfortunate
situation of selling their mandate for a single meal. In this context,
the entire democratic system is losing its legitimacy and creating
conditions for a total rejection of the system by the people.

The outcome from all these processes is the rise of voter apathy all
over the country. Many eligible voters are taking the exit option from
participation in elections. They are concerned about the depth of
corruption in the system and are disillusioned about the political
process that makes it very difficult for them to exercise their
choice. The growing consensus is that the people’s vote no longer
counts and outcomes are determined by a sect of Nigerians that have
influence, money and access to political power.

I am concerned about the general drift that is emerging in many
different African countries that is making elections completely
meaningless. In last year’s elections in Tanzania, the government
arrested all key opposition leaders, charged them to court for treason
and jailed them for daring to oppose the President. When young persons
protested against elections without choice, they were massacred on the
streets. When they started running out of bullets, reinforcements were
sent in from Kenya and Uganda. This disaster of elections without
choice is becoming the future for the continent. Versions of this
scenario have taken place recently in Congo, Guinea, Cameroon, Guinea
Bissau, Benin and Uganda.

Increasingly, for the average African citizen, the term “election” no
longer connotes democracy. It is a nightmare about an irresponsible
ruling class that is no longer ready to subject itself to the people’s
mandate. They remain in power through the illegitimate use of State
power to suppress the rights of the people. There are still some
countries in Africa such as Mauritius, Cape Verde, South Africa,
Ghana, and Senegal where some measure of electoral integrity has been
maintained but the general picture is bleak. Nonetheless, the general
direction of movement remains troubling.

The African tragedy today is that gerontocratic autocracies have
developed in most countries and they are determined to remain in power
to the end of their lives and work towards being succeeded by their
children. We have returned to the Africa of the 1970s and 1980s in
which arbitrary rule, power without responsibility is the norm. The
system is defined by a deep commitment to kleptocracy and a total
disregard to the massive problem of youth unemployment. As repression
grows, the civic sphere is shrinking, liberties are being curbed,
political parties are emasculated, opposition leaders and journalists
must praise the dictators in power or go to jail or exile if they are
lucky. The composition of the power elite is quickly being reduced to
family and ethnic oligarchies. The horizon is bleak.

We need to pose such larger questions in any serious reflection on
credible elections and national security in Nigeria. Can we maintain a
level playing for elections in Nigeria? How do we understand the
massive pressure placed on opposition politicians, especially State
governors to deflect to the ruling All Peoples’ Congress (APC)? Why
are “recalcitrant” opposition elements being arrested and tried in
court for corruption while there is a standing policy that opposition
politicians that defect to the ruling party will not be tried for
corruption. I fear for Nigeria’s democratic future as reckless
behaviour by the ruling class intensifies in a context in which
national security is being redefined as the security of those in
power. Can “we the people” rescue democracy for the citizens?





Professor Jibrin Ibrahim
Senior Fellow
Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja
Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17