FROM THE ARCHIVES: "Re-Visiting June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election Results" by Bolaji Aluko {RE: NO "JUNE 12" OBSERVATION!!!
Mobolaji Aluko
|
Re-Visiting June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Election Results December 28, 2006 | posted by Nigerian Muse (Archives) |
RE-VISITING JUNE 12 1993 NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS
Mobolaji E. Aluko, Ph.D
Burtonsville, Maryland, USA
October 1994
Introduction
Periodically, one sits down to reflect on why many individuals (including this writer) are so fixated on June 12, 1993, and why we consider that date so important in the annals of Nigeria's history. Are we just closet partisan ethnicists, or political demagogues, masquerading as Nigerian democrats? Below, you will find an attempt to provide some answers based solely on the known numerical figures of the June 12, 1993 presidential elections. The claim is that the incontrovertibility of the results, the size of the national mandate and the ethnic compromises which led to it clearly reveal why the annulment of the elections has so far traumatized a country whose dream for the beginnings of a national consensus suddenly became a nightmare.
The Facts about June 12
The rigor of the election process leading up to the election day itself (the so-called Option A4 implemented by Babangida) is well known. As far as the election itself is concerned, first, all the vote counting had been completed and collated, on a ward-by-ward, local government-by-government and State-by-state basis, and known at these levels; the vote count was never suspended; the release was. Secondly, the results had been published but never officially released in entirety by the National Electoral Commission (Nwosu as Chairman), a technicality that has been harped on by the governments succeeding Babangida's - of Sonekan, and currently of Abacha.
Thirdly, the two official allegations made by Babangida were that there was vote-buying before the elections (in fact there was a last-minute legal challenge requesting a postponement of the elections by the Association for a Better Nigeria (ABN), led by Arthur Nzeribe, which was thrown out by the Courts) and that the apparent winner Abiola (over challenger Tofa) had a conflict of interest since the Federal Government owes him substantial amounts of money from previous business dealings.
The detailed figures are presented in Table 1, and further analyses are presented in Tables 2,3 and 4.
Regional Analysis of Results
Tables 1 and 2 above are the raw data. If you accept them, then the discussion can proceed. From these data we can get some information through interpretive analysis. Again, you may disagree with the conclusions, but you have the privilege of working with the same data and coming up with your own conclusions.
The analysis in Tables 3 and 4 below is based on the following assumptions:
(1) the 1991 census data is correct. (latest indications are that they are now being belatedly questioned at the National Constitutional Conference going on in Abuja.)
(2) the 1993 Presidential results quoted above are correct;
(3) the regional division of the states provided above is acceptable.
What the Regional Analysis Means - an Objective (?) View
Election results are often subjected to regional analyses because their outcomes affect the electorate most where they reside (city, state), and where they are most likely to travel (region). However, due to the peculiar ethno-geography and history of Nigeria, there is a keen identification between ethnic groups and regions: for example, the Yoruba live mostly in the South-West, the Hausa-Fulani mostly in the Northern regions, and the Igbo in the East. Consequently, ethnic qualifications of electoral trends, even when resisted (as this writer is attempting to), cannot be escaped. It is with the above riders that the following statements are made.
(1) Total votes cast of 14.2 million is 35.6% of the voter population of 40 million (out of a total population of 88.5 milion). For a nation that is about 50% illiterate, that is a high percentage, and any mandate should be regarded as a national one.
(2) If you compare the Rank by 1991 Census and the Election Participation Indices/Total Votes Rankings, there were some regions which appeared to be extremely keen on voting (Mid-Central, Middle Belt), others voted somewhat in proportion to their population (Southwest, Northeast, Minority), while some appeared relatively disinterested in voting (East, Northwest, particularly North Central.) Of course, this may have been a result of last minute confusion about whether the election was on or off.
(3) The Southwest voted in favor of Abiola 6:1 relative to Tofa, the Northwest voted in favor of Tofa 2.5:1 relative to Abiola, the Middle-Belt and Mid-Central voted 1.5:1 in favor of Abiola, but everywhere else it was a toss-up, with Abiola having an edge in the Minority region, and Tofa having an edge in the East, Northeast and North Central regions.
(4) It is also interesting to note that Abiola won 5:1 in his home state (Ogun), and also edged Tofa in the latter's home state (Kano); furthermore, Kano State registered the lowest Election Participation Ranking as shown in Table 2. Note that Abiola won with the highest Win Ratio in Osun State (7.18), while Tofa won with his highest ratio in Sokoto State (3.81).
Taking the above together, Tofa seems to have won in regions where there was in general voter apathy, while Abiola won in regions where people were most keen on voting. Even on a state-by-state basis, this conclusion is justified.
The regional analysis also seems to debunk three myths:
(1) The first myth is that Abiola could have won without including the SouthWest votes, a claim often made by his supporters to enhance their claim of Abiola's national appeal away from his home-base. Now, if we take the Southwest votes away from Abiola alone, Tofa wins:
Abiola: 5,263,252 Tofa: 5,878,685
If we take the Southwest votes away from both of them, Tofa still wins marginally:
Abiola: 5,263,252 Tofa: 5,329,160
Therefore, Abiola was actually very much helped by the Southwest votes.However, the analysis above shows that it was a keen contest with Abiola holding his own away from his home base, and subject to a loss if he had not. Any allegation of vote buying is difficult to justify from these numbers, particularly when we also look at the "reasonableness" of the Election Participation Indices of
Tables 2 and 4.
(2) In defence against accusations about lack of sustained post-annulment protests in the East, there have always been claims by some that the East voted "massively" for Abiola (Myth # 2), and hence had done all they could for the struggle for democracy. If that is the case, then there was also "massive" voting for Tofa, so much so that he won in the East Region.
Abiola: 739,748 Tofa: 756,142
Even if we include Cross River, Akwa-Ibom and Rivers States in the "East" (they are currently included in the Minority Region), then Tofa still wins the East:
Abiola: 1,516,511 Tofa: 1,709,909
with the Rivers State (out of these three non-Igbo Eastern states) contributing largely to maintaining the scale in favor of Tofa by voting for him 1.5:1 over Abiola.
What the close vote for Abiola in the Igbo East shows is not "massive" voting, but rather a "magnaminous" heart of the Igbo in these elections, bearing in mind the following facts:
(a) Dr. Sylvester Ugo, vice-presidential candidate of Tofa, is Igbo and the former Central Bank Governor of Biafra. If Abiola's ticket prevailed, it would mean a rare period in which an Igbo would not be No. 1 or 2 in Federal government (notice Azikiwe, Ironsi, Ukiwe (albeit briefly), Ekwueme)
(b) there is still residual visceral resentment against Yorubas and Awolowo over the Biafran episode (Abiola is Yoruba).
(3) The regional analysis also gives an insight into the pattern of protests following the annulment. Since the Southwest voted 6:1 for Abiola, it was most indignant about the annulment, and showed it, sometimes violently. Also, Edo State and Delta State both voted more than 2:1 for Abiola, hence a similar indignation. The disenchantment of Kwara State, which voted for Abiola 3.5:1
appears to have been embodied in the indignation of their former Governor, Chief C.O. Adebayo, who is one of the earliest and longest-held detainees. Elsewhere, where Tofa either won, or votes were evenly split, the human tendency to be a sore loser, or for each person to dissuade his neighbor from any violent tendency was bound to make the reaction much more muted than in the Southwest, Edo or Delta States. Consequently, lack of a national protest does not take away from a national mandate, which debunks Myth # 3 (lack of protests shows lack on national mandate).
What to do with these figures
This is a thorny question. But consider the following suggestion: the answer seems to lie with the following individuals, who should now tell the nation why we should or should not accept the June 12, 1993 figures, namely:
(1) Abiola (2) Kingibe - the "winning" pair
(3) Tofa (4) Ugo - the "losing" pair
(5) Nwosu (6) Babangida/Abacha - the "official" trio
In all sincerity, we should sit them all down, and have them tell us. In fact, one could toy with the idea of a national referendum following such "tell-all" sessions. However, one is stumped by the puzzle – suppose that the referendum, which after all is an "election" between ideas, if not of persons, is then annulled if its outcome is unacceptable to some, just as June 12 was, then what ?
Simplistic ? Yes, but one is at a loss for any justice without June 12, although one is ready to be convinced for the sake of the country !
Sooner or later, we may have to face the truth - the only alternative to June 12 is the ongoing Constitutional Conference, and the maintenance of its annulment. And that is the government line, which will simply make our nightmare to continue.
Table 1
The Annulled June 12, 1993 Nigerian Presidential Elections:
Unofficial Results
State |
Rank by 1991 Census |
Rank by Total 1993 Total Votes |
Votes Abiola |
Votes Tofa |
Total Votes Cast |
Abiola % |
Tofa % |
Region |
|
Lagos |
1 |
2 |
883,965 |
149,432 |
1,033,397 |
85.54 |
14.46 |
SW |
|
Kano |
2 |
22 |
169,519 |
154,809 |
324,328 |
52.27 |
47.73 |
NC |
|
Sokoto |
3 |
12 |
97,726 |
372,250 |
469,976 |
20.79 |
79.21 |
NW |
|
Bauchi |
4 |
4 |
339,339 |
524,836 |
864,175 |
39.27 |
60.73 |
NE |
|
Rivers |
5 |
3 |
370,678 |
640,973 |
1,011,651 |
36.64 |
63.36 |
MN |
|
Kaduna |
6 |
5 |
389,713 |
356,880 |
746,593 |
52.20 |
47.80 |
NC |
|
Ondo |
7 |
1 |
883,024 |
162,994 |
1,046,018 |
84.42 |
15.58 |
SW |
|
Katsina |
8 |
13 |
171,162 |
271,077 |
442,239 |
38.70 |
61.30 |
NC |
|
Oyo |
9 |
7 |
536,014 |
105,785 |
641,799 |
83.52 |
16.48 |
SW |
|
Plateau |
10 |
6 |
417,565 |
259,394 |
676,959 |
61.68 |
38.32 |
MB |
|
Enugu |
11 |
8 |
263,101 |
254,050 |
517,151 |
50.88 |
49.12 |
EA |
|
Jigawa |
12 |
27 |
138,557 |
89,636 |
228,193 |
60.72 |
39.28 |
NC |
|
Benue |
13 |
15 |
246,830 |
186,302 |
433,132 |
56.99 |
43.01 |
MB |
|
Anambra |
14 |
18 |
212,024 |
155,029 |
367,053 |
57.76 |
42.24 |
EA |
|
Borno |
15 |
25 |
153,490 |
128,684 |
282,174 |
54.40 |
45.60 |
NE |
|
Delta |
16 |
11 |
327,277 |
146,001 |
473,278 |
69.15 |
30.85 |
MN |
|
Imo |
17 |
20 |
159,350 |
195,836 |
355,186 |
44.86 |
55.14 |
EA |
|
Niger |
18 |
19 |
136,350 |
221,437 |
357,787 |
38.11 |
61.89 |
NW |
|
AkwaIbom |
19 |
16 |
214,782 |
159,342 |
374,124 |
57.41 |
42.59 |
MN |
|
Ogun |
20 |
14 |
365,266 |
72,068 |
437,334 |
83.52 |
16.48 |
SW |
|
Abia |
21 |
26 |
105,273 |
151,227 |
256,500 |
41.04 |
58.96 |
EA |
|
Osun |
22 |
10 |
425,725 |
59,246 |
484,971 |
87.78 |
12.22 |
SW |
|
Edo |
23 |
23 |
205,407 |
103,572 |
308,979 |
66.48 |
33.52 |
MN |
|
Adamawa |
24 |
24 |
140,875 |
167,239 |
308,114 |
45.72 |
54.28 |
NE |
|
Kogi |
25 |
9 |
222,700 |
265,732 |
488,432 |
45.59 |
54.41 |
MC |
|
Kebbi |
26 |
28 |
70,219 |
144,808 |
215,027 |
32.66 |
67.34 |
NW |
|
CrsRiver27 |
21 |
189,303 |
153,452 |
342,755 |
55.23 |
44.77 |
MN |
|
|
Kwara |
28 |
17 |
288,270 |
80,219 |
368,489 |
78.23 |
21.77 |
MC |
|
Taraba |
29 |
30 |
101,887 |
64,001 |
165,888 |
61.42 |
38.58 |
MB |
|
Yobe |
30 |
29 |
111,887 |
64,061 |
175,948 |
63.59 |
36.41 |
NE |
|
FCT |
31 |
31 |
19,968 |
18,313 |
38,281 |
52.16 |
47.84 |
MC |
|
Total |
|
|
8,357,246 |
5,878,685 |
14,235,931 |
58.71 |
41.29 |
|
Note the regions:
South-West (SW): Lagos, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Oshun {Abiola wins all 5 states}
East (EA): Enugu, Anambra, Imo, Abia {Abiola wins the first 2 states}
North-West (NW): Sokoto, Niger, Kebbi {Tofa wins all 3 states}
North-East (NE): Adamawa, Borno, Bauchi, Yobe {Abiola wins first 2 states}
North-Central(NC): Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina {Abiola wins first 3 states}
Middle-Belt (MB): Plateau, Benue, Taraba {Abiola wins all 3 states}
Minority (MN): Delta, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Cross-River, Rivers {Abiola wins
first 4 states}
Mid-Central (MC): Kwara, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Kogi {Abiola
wins first 2 states}
The "traditional" Northern Region comprised the NW, NE, NC, MB and MC regions,
the Western Region was the SW region, the Eastern Region comprised EA region,
Akwa-Ibom, Cross-Rivers and Rivers States, and the Mid-West Region
comprised Edo and Delta states.
Table 2:
State Analysis of 1993 Presidential Elections
State |
Rank by 1991 Census |
Rank by Total Votes |
1991 Census Population Figure |
Total Votes Cast |
Election Participation Index (EPI) |
Rank by EPI |
Winner |
Win Ratio |
|
Lagos |
1 |
2 |
5,685,781 |
1,033,397 |
40.21 |
13 |
Abiola |
5.92 |
|
Kano |
2 |
22 |
5,362,040 |
324,328 |
12.74 |
31 |
Abiola |
1.10 |
|
Sokoto |
3 |
12 |
4,392,391 |
469,976 |
23.67 |
27 |
Tofa |
3.81 |
|
Bauchi |
4 |
4 |
4,294,413 |
864,175 |
44.52 |
7 |
Tofa |
1.55 |
|
Rivers |
5 |
3 |
3,983,857 |
1,011,651 |
56.18 |
2 |
Tofa |
1.73 |
|
Kaduna |
6 |
5 |
3,969,252 |
746,593 |
41.62 |
8 |
Abiola |
1.09 |
|
Ondo |
7 |
1 |
3,884,485 |
1,046,018 |
59.58 |
1 |
Abiola |
5.42 |
|
Katsina |
8 |
13 |
3,878,344 |
442,239 |
25.23 |
23 |
Tofa |
1.58 |
|
Oyo |
9 |
7 |
3,488,789 |
641,799 |
40.70 |
11 |
Abiola |
5.07 |
|
Plateau |
10 |
6 |
3,283,784 |
676,959 |
45.61 |
6 |
Abiola |
1.61 |
|
Enugu |
11 |
8 |
3,161,295 |
517,151 |
36.19 |
14 |
Abiola |
1.04 |
|
Jigawa |
12 |
27 |
2,829,929 |
228,193 |
17.84 |
30 |
Abiola |
1.55 |
|
Benue |
13 |
15 |
2,780,398 |
433,132 |
34.47 |
16 |
Abiola |
1.33 |
|
Anambra |
14 |
18 |
2,767,903 |
367,053 |
29.34 |
21 |
Abiola |
1.37 |
|
Borno |
15 |
25 |
2,596,589 |
282,174 |
24.04 |
26 |
Abiola |
1.92 |
|
Delta |
16 |
11 |
2,570,181 |
473,278 |
40.74 |
10 |
Abiola |
2.24 |
|
Imo |
17 |
20 |
2,485,499 |
355,186 |
31.62 |
20 |
Tofa |
1.23 |
|
Niger |
18 |
19 |
2,482,367 |
357,787 |
31.89 |
18 |
Tofa |
1.62 |
|
AkwaIbom |
19 |
16 |
2,359,736 |
374,124 |
35.08 |
15 |
Abiola |
1.35 |
|
Ogun |
20 |
14 |
2,338,570 |
437,334 |
41.38 |
9 |
Abiola |
5.07 |
|
Abia |
21 |
26 |
2,297,978 |
256,500 |
24.70 |
25 |
Tofa |
1.44 |
|
Osun |
22 |
10 |
2,203,016 |
484,971 |
48.71 |
5 |
Abiola |
7.18 |
|
Edo |
23 |
23 |
2,159,848 |
308,979 |
31.65 |
19 |
Abiola |
1.98 |
|
Adamawa |
24 |
24 |
2,124,049 |
308,114 |
32.09 |
17 |
Tofa |
1.19 |
|
Kogi |
25 |
9 |
2,099,046 |
488,432 |
51.48 |
4 |
Tofa |
1.19 |
|
Kebbi |
26 |
28 |
2,062,226 |
215,027 |
23.07 |
28 |
Tofa |
2.06 |
|
CrsRiver |
27 |
21 |
1,865,604 |
342,755 |
40.65 |
12 |
Abiola |
1.23 |
|
Kwara |
28 |
17 |
1,566,469 |
368,489 |
52.05 |
3 |
Abiola |
3.59 |
|
Taraba |
29 |
30 |
1,480,590 |
165,888 |
24.79 |
24 |
Abiola |
1.59 |
|
Yobe |
30 |
29 |
1,411,481 |
175,948 |
27.58 |
22 |
Abiola |
1.75 |
|
FCT |
31 |
31 |
378,671 |
38,281 |
22.37 |
29 |
Abiola |
1.09 |
|
Total |
|
|
88,515,581 |
14,235,931 |
35.58 |
|
Abiola |
1.42 |
Notes on Table 2:
Election Participation Index = 100 * Numerator / Denominator
Numerator: Total number of votes cast in State (or region)
Denominator:1991 State (or Regional) Census multiplied by (40/88.5)
The Denominator is an estimate of the voting population (could
be replaced by actual voter registration); 40 million is the voting
population, 88.5 million is the total Nigerian population. The
denominator presumes that the voter population is distributed uniformly
throughout the country.
Note that an index close to 100 would indicate almost 100% voting. An
index of over 100 could indicate some election fraud, unless there is
significant on-sight registration.
Election Participation Ranking:
Ranking 1-10: Ondo*, Rivers, Kwara*, Kogi, Osun*, Plateau*, Bauchi, Kaduna*,
Ogun*, Delta* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
11-20: Oyo*, Cross-River*, Lagos*, Enugu*, Akwa-Ibom*, Benue*, Adamawa,
Niger, Edo*, Imo {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 3}
21-31: Anambra*, Yobe*, Katsina, Taraba*, Abia, Borno*, Sokoto,
Kebbi, FCT*, Jigawa*, Kano* {*Abiola wins 7, Tofa wins 4}
Win ratio = Votes for winner / votes for opponent
Table 3
Regional Analysis of 1993 Presidential Election Results
Region |
Rank by 1991 Census |
Rank by Total Votes Cast |
Rank by Election Participation |
Votes Cast for Abiola |
Votes Cast for Tofa |
Total Votes Cast |
% Abiola |
% Tofa |
|
SouthWest(SW) |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3,093,994 |
549,525 |
3,643,519 |
84.92 |
15.08 |
|
East (EA) |
4 |
5 |
6 |
739,748 |
756,142 |
1,495,890 |
49.45 |
50.55 |
|
NorthWest(NW) |
6 |
7 |
7 |
304,295 |
738,495 |
1,042,790 |
29.18 |
70.82 |
|
NorthEast(NE) |
5 |
4 |
5 |
745,591 |
884,820 |
1,630,411 |
45.73 |
54.27 |
|
NorthCentral(NC) |
2 |
3 |
8 |
868,951 |
872,402 |
1,741,353 |
49.90 |
50.10 |
|
MiddleBelt (MB) |
7 |
6 |
4 |
766,282 |
509,697 |
1,275,979 |
60.05 |
39.95 |
|
Minority (MN) |
3 |
2 |
3 |
1,307,447 |
1,203,340 |
2,510,787 |
52.07 |
47.93 |
|
Mid-Central (MC) |
8 |
8 |
1 |
530,938 |
364,264 |
895,202 |
59.31 |
40.69 |
|
Total |
|
|
|
8,357,246 |
5,878,685 |
14,235,931 |
58.71 |
41.29 |
Table 4:
Comparative Regional Analysis of Census/Results
Region |
1991 Census Count |
Total 1993 Election Votes |
Election Participation Index (EPI) |
Rank By Census |
Rank By Total Votes |
Rank by EPI |
Winner |
Win Ratio |
|
SouthWest(SW) |
17,600,641 |
3,643,519 |
45.80 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Abiola |
5.63 |
|
East (EA) |
10,712,675 |
1,495,890 |
30.89 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
Tofa |
1.02 |
|
NorthWest(NW) |
8,936,984 |
1,042,790 |
25.82 |
6 |
7 |
7 |
Tofa |
2.43 |
|
NorthEast(NE) |
10,426,532 |
1,630,411 |
34.60 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
Tofa |
1.19 |
|
NorthCentral(NC) |
16,309,565 |
1,741,353 |
23.62 |
2 |
3 |
8 |
Tofa |
1.00 |
|
MiddleBelt (MB) |
7,544,772 |
1,275,979 |
37.42 |
7 |
6 |
4 |
Abiola |
1.50 |
|
Minority (MN) |
12,939,226 |
2,510,787 |
42.93 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
Abiola |
1.09 |
|
Mid-Central (MC) |
4,044,186 |
895,202 |
48.97 |
8 |
8 |
1 |
Abiola |
1.46 |
|
Total |
88,514,581 |
14,235,931 |
35.58 |
|
|
|
Abiola |
1.42 |
( Subscribers)
June 12, 2014 is largely over around the entire world, yet most of all those people who called themselves NADECO movers NEVER uttered a word in remembrance of Chief Moshood Abiola, who was the main figure in that "JUNE 12" 1993 election that Mister Ibrahim Babangida annulled because Nigerians did not elect a Northerner!
From Tinubu (now a Billionaire off of Lagos state money, but was just getting by financially, while he paced around the grounds of Nigerian embassy in DC demonstrating the annulment as a NADECOid) to Vice Chancellors, NADECO book writers, etc, Moshood Abiola is no longer an important symbol to them as many may have got rich through subscription or embrace of AGIP ("Any Government In Power.")
Was "June 12" a 419 scheme to something else for most of those NADECO boys and girls?
Tufiakwa!!!
Collins Ezebuihe.
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Mobolaji Aluko
Humphrey Nwosu: My Greatest Regret is Inability to Declare Winner of June 12, 1993 Election
But some people still feel you compounded an already complicated situation by failing to complete the announcement of the results of the June 12, 1993 presidential election. How would you respond to this?
Nwosu: Because of the logistic preparation I put in place – I had internal communication system through which I could reach every state of the federation – results were coming in. In order not to influence the outcome of the election, results were announced at the polling stations. At the state and national levels, I had collation committees made up of national commissioners, representatives of political parties, foreign bodies. As the resident electoral commissioners came in with the results, they were announced publicly. This was going on and the result would have been out within three or four days. But halfway, as the results were being collated, the same Abuja High Court, presided by the chief judge of Abuja, came out with a decision that the results of the election should no longer be announced. This time, the national commissioners were around. We mounted a big board at the headquarters of the commission where the results were recorded and announced publicly, Abiola, Tofa – Abiola was leading. I told you the military was divided. The same pro-Abacha group met at the National Defence and Security Council and summoned me and asked if this was the way every Nigerians would be hearing about this election through the signboard. I said, “This is the provision of the law, to make it transparent. I don’t interfere, no one does, this is what Decree 13 approves.” Abacha said, “So you went ahead to conduct the election which the court said you shouldn’t conduct? Go and dismantle the board.” You know it was a military regime. In fact, at the point we received this, almost all the results were in. The only result remaining was Taraba, out of the 30 states of the federation; that was about June 15. It was when I was coming out of Aso Rock that I was served the court decision by a Commissioner of Police. I went back to the commission’s headquarters, the Taraba man, Professor Pius – he is now late – was just coming in with the result.
Was there a serious effort to vacate the Abuja court order?
I called an emergency meeting to discuss what next to do about the legal restraint from the Abuja High Court. It was for us to vacate the judgement and conclude our job. But who would do this for us, given the position of the Attorney General of the Federation, Akpamgbo, who had argued with me and I had my way? Meanwhile, the government set up the Abacha committee to look into the election and advise it. The commission had decided we should challenge the judgement in court, and here was the Abacha committee, which had David Mark, the present senate president; Murtala Nyako, the present governor of Adamawa State, who was second to Abacha in the committee; General Aliyu Mohammed; Akilu; me; secretary to the commission; Akpamgbo. When we got to Abacha’s residence, another subcommittee was set up, a smaller committee comprising Akilu, Akpamgbo, me, secretary to the commission, Aliyu Umar, who is late now, and director of legal services. When we got there, I told them we had no business challenging the process, as the law had already set out the process, and anything we did would be outside the law. The law provides that the result should be released and if anyone objects to it, he should go to the tribunal. I said if the government, which is the highest sovereign authority representing the people of Nigeria, wanted a political solution, the winner was Abiola, so they should invite Abiola and negotiate with him. They said we should go back and report to the larger committee, which Abacha headed. I told the chairman of the committee we were a technical body set up to conduct and release election results, we were not a political body, that Abiola had won the election and the only result not collated was that of Taraba. I said if they wanted political negotiation they should invite Abiola. Abacha shouted on me, “You went ahead with an election the court said you shouldn’t hold; you are not even a member of the National Defence and Security Council. You are telling us what to do. Who are you? Call your commissioners to appear before the National Defence and Security Council.” It was the era mobile telephone was just beginning in Nigeria and David Mark was the Minister of Communications. I was about to call them, then, he said I should tell him the name of my personal secretary and he would do that for me. It was he who called my secretary, Andrew Umanah, to tell the national commissioners they were wanted in Aso Rock
UNQUOTE
“Out of 30 states, 24 states were won by Abiola…….”
--------MA
“Out of 30 states, 24 states were speculated to have been won by Abiola”, would have been appropriate. No results were announced by the appropriate authority.
CAO
On Sunday, 15 June 2014 15:01:29 UTC+1, Bolaji Aluko wrote:Obi Emeka Anthony:Thanks for your thoughts. Gubernatorial party incumbency could in fact have played a part in the voting pattern on June 12, 1993 - but not necessarily. Your speculation caused me to re-visit my Table 2, as you will see below, with the addition of some columns to indicate the incumbent state governors and their political parties during the June 12 1993 presidential elections..Recall that legislative (National Senate and House) and gubernatorial elections were held by the IBB regime in December 1991, with nine new states (Abia, Enugu (from Anambra), Delta, Edo (from Bendel), Osun (from Oyo), Yobe, Taraba, Kogi, Jigawa) just created on August 27, 1991, barely four months to the elections. So many of the 30 states had no distinctive history really of party politics, except as part of a larger state.Out of 30 states, 24 states were won by Abiola (14 states) and Tofa (10 states) in the states of the governors of their own parties. That 80% coincidence index could be indicative of party effect. However, all the 6 states (Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross RIver and Akwa Ibom) that exhibited no coincidence were NRC gubernatorial states that crossed over to Abiola's SDP during the presidential elections of June 12.And there you have it.Bolaji Aluko___________________________________Table 2 (Revised):
Revised State Analysis of 1993 Presidential Elections
S/N
State
Rank by 1991 Census
Rank by Total
Votes
1991 Census
Population
Figure
Total Votes Cast
Election
Participation
Index (EPI)
Rank by
EPI
Winner
Party
Win Ratio
Incumbent
Governor
Party
Party
Coinc.
1
Sokoto
3
12
4,392,391
469,976
23.67
27
Tofa
NRC
3.81
Yahya Abdulkarim
NRC
1
2
Kebbi
26
28
2,062,226
215,027
23.07
28
Tofa
NRC
2.06
Abubakr Musa
NRC
1
3
Rivers
5
3
3,983,857
1,011,651
56.18
2
Tofa
NRC
1.73
Rufus Ada-George
NRC
1
4
Niger
18
19
2,482,367
357,787
31.89
18
Tofa
NRC
1.62
Musa Inuwa
NRC
1
5
Katsina
8
13
3,878,344
442,239
25.23
23
Tofa
...
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Chidi Anthony Opara
---------MA
Sir,
The said book and interview cannot be taken as official result of the election in question and you know it.
CAO.
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