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Jibrin Ibrahim
9:19 AM (11 hours ago) 9:19 AM
to 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series
Nigerian Electoral Politics: A View from Mars
Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy Column, Daily Trust, 8 May 2026
Sadly for me, my fifty years of the study of political science has not
helped me much in understanding Nigerian electoral politics. After 27
years of electoral democracy in the Fourth Republic and seven
governments, the political process has been completely transformed, to
be clearer, largely destroyed. Opposition party leaders are regularly
expelled from their parties and the expulsion is made legal by a
corrupt judiciary that has no respect for laws but has lots of
obedience to governments in power. Anti-corruption agencies are given
lists of “troublesome” opposition leaders and instructed to persecute
rather than prosecute them for their sins against the “Great leader”.
The party system has been completely monetized and each party has a
core group of paid for litigants that dash to court the moment anyone
in the party criticizes the government. Within days, they are offered
billions of naira which they use to bribe judges who throw out the
legitimate party leadership and install imposters as the “legitimate”
party leadership. Internal party democracy becomes a theory that is
only spoken about by confused academics who cannot explain why
Nigerian political parties are so different from all the others they
have learnt about in their previous studies. Clearly, Nigerian
politics is modelled on mars rather than the democratic model
developed on earth.
Until recently, Nigeria operated a two-party dominant political system
in which the ruling and main opposition party controlled enormous
resources compared to the others. This was because the federal system
had opportunities of access to power and resources for opposition at
the State level and therefore at least one opposition party could
remain competitive even at the federal level. At the beginning of the
Fourth Republic, only three political parties were registered, but a
Supreme Court decision allowed for the liberalisation of the regime
and many more parties were registered. There were three categories of
political parties – the two dominant parties, parties with
parliamentary representation and the other small parties, most of
which were established as possible platforms for important politicians
that lose out in the bigger parties to access nomination for elective
posts. The core problem was that the President and State Governors
tightly control political parties and the party leadership structure.
Gone are the days when the party chairman and executive committee
controlled the party. The president has become the leader of the
dominant party. At the state level, although a party chairman exists,
state governors are the leaders of their party at that level. The old
idea that a president and governors are servants chosen by the
political party to implement a manifesto decided by the party is
completely alien to the system today.
One of the strangest things about Nigerian political parties is that
they do not stand for anything in terms of the ideological spectrum
and their activities are not driven by a party membership that has
agency. Competition in Nigeria’s party system is very intense within
the ruling and main opposition parties and less so between the other
political parties. This is due to the fact that since 1979, Nigeria
has developed the tradition of major blocs of the political elite
coalescing into a main political party conceived as a hegemonic party.
In elections that are relatively free and fair, namely, the 1959,
1979, 1999 and 2015 elections, the parties that had the highest votes,
the Northern Peoples’ Congress, the National Party of Nigeria, the
Peoples’ Democratic Party and the All Peoples’ Congress failed in
their desire to be hegemonic or truly dominant through the polls. In
the subsequent elections of 1964, 1983, 2003 and 2019, they all abused
their incumbency powers to transform themselves into dominant parties.
In essence, they used electoral fraud to boast their control of the
political process and weaken opposition parties. At the rate we are
going, competitive party politics will end in 2027 as the ruling party
is determined to run and control every single party in the country.
President Tinubu is convinced that he could take over all the parties
and do what Abacha failed to do – make all political parties declare
him as the sole presidential candidate. At that point, we will
discover if there are still people who believe in and are ready to
fight for democracy in Nigeria.
The greatest challenge facing Nigerian democracy is the absence of a
real and functional party system. Virtually all parties have very
little respect for internal party democracy. That is to say that they
do not conduct their internal affairs based on the principles
enunciated in their constitutions and rules. Party officials and
candidates for elections are not elected in accordance with the rules
of the game. Party conventions become occasions in which the
president, governors and godfathers simply impose candidates of their
choice rather than have candidates voted for by members and delegates.
The lack of internal party democracy weakens the internal coherence of
most political parties and creates a situation where the judiciary
becomes the arbiter of who the candidates are rather than delegates.
Of course, the judiciary is no longer a neutral arbiter, most judges
are corrupt agents who deliver judgements based on the size of the
bribes they have been paid by governments and/or individuals.
Since 1999, civil society and development partners have invested vast
resources in capacity building for political parties. I know because I
have been a resource person in so many such workshops. The United
Nations system, European Union, the Department for International
Development (DFID) of the United Kingdom, United States Agency for
International Development (USAID), IFES, National Democratic Institute
(NDI), International Republican Institute (IRI), the Westminster
Foundation for Democracy and others have invested millions of Dollars,
Pounds and Euros to raise the capacity of political parties but the
impact of the investment has been zero. The main political parties
never attend the sessions and the small ones come only for the per
diem. The parties have not been growing in terms of their membership,
capacity to win seats or democratic practice. Their strengths are
established by how much money they have to bribe, deploy thugs,
control the security agencies or influence INEC.
Political parties become a marketplace in the six months leading to
elections as candidates engage in do or die acts to eliminate rivals
by bribing officials, jailing them or even killing them. Armed with
the ticket, they then bribe voters to vote them into office. This
pathway to power makes nonsense of the normal idea of developing a
party with ideology, principles and a good campaign manifesto and
campaign strategy.
Were political science principles applicable to Nigeria, I would have
said that the pathway to deepening democracy is to engage with
political parties to make party membership less ephemeral and more
real. Nigerian political parties should develop a good membership base
not patrons or clients. The attachment of people should be to
political parties not to patrons or godfathers who pay for their
engagement in the political process. The mode of participation in
political party activities, which is currently mediated by political
bosses to whom people owe allegiance, should change. Ambitious
politicians should stop jumping from a party when they do not get a
position they seek, they should remain in the party and try again next
time. The entrepreneurial approach to politics should be replaced by a
more democratic one based on a new political ethos rooted in
principles and issue-based approach to politics. They will ask me an
important question, who does not know that they are from mars and not
the world of democratic politics. My response would be to write
another column next week.
Professor Jibrin Ibrahim
Senior Fellow
Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja
Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17
Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy Column, Daily Trust, 8 May 2026
Sadly for me, my fifty years of the study of political science has not
helped me much in understanding Nigerian electoral politics. After 27
years of electoral democracy in the Fourth Republic and seven
governments, the political process has been completely transformed, to
be clearer, largely destroyed. Opposition party leaders are regularly
expelled from their parties and the expulsion is made legal by a
corrupt judiciary that has no respect for laws but has lots of
obedience to governments in power. Anti-corruption agencies are given
lists of “troublesome” opposition leaders and instructed to persecute
rather than prosecute them for their sins against the “Great leader”.
The party system has been completely monetized and each party has a
core group of paid for litigants that dash to court the moment anyone
in the party criticizes the government. Within days, they are offered
billions of naira which they use to bribe judges who throw out the
legitimate party leadership and install imposters as the “legitimate”
party leadership. Internal party democracy becomes a theory that is
only spoken about by confused academics who cannot explain why
Nigerian political parties are so different from all the others they
have learnt about in their previous studies. Clearly, Nigerian
politics is modelled on mars rather than the democratic model
developed on earth.
Until recently, Nigeria operated a two-party dominant political system
in which the ruling and main opposition party controlled enormous
resources compared to the others. This was because the federal system
had opportunities of access to power and resources for opposition at
the State level and therefore at least one opposition party could
remain competitive even at the federal level. At the beginning of the
Fourth Republic, only three political parties were registered, but a
Supreme Court decision allowed for the liberalisation of the regime
and many more parties were registered. There were three categories of
political parties – the two dominant parties, parties with
parliamentary representation and the other small parties, most of
which were established as possible platforms for important politicians
that lose out in the bigger parties to access nomination for elective
posts. The core problem was that the President and State Governors
tightly control political parties and the party leadership structure.
Gone are the days when the party chairman and executive committee
controlled the party. The president has become the leader of the
dominant party. At the state level, although a party chairman exists,
state governors are the leaders of their party at that level. The old
idea that a president and governors are servants chosen by the
political party to implement a manifesto decided by the party is
completely alien to the system today.
One of the strangest things about Nigerian political parties is that
they do not stand for anything in terms of the ideological spectrum
and their activities are not driven by a party membership that has
agency. Competition in Nigeria’s party system is very intense within
the ruling and main opposition parties and less so between the other
political parties. This is due to the fact that since 1979, Nigeria
has developed the tradition of major blocs of the political elite
coalescing into a main political party conceived as a hegemonic party.
In elections that are relatively free and fair, namely, the 1959,
1979, 1999 and 2015 elections, the parties that had the highest votes,
the Northern Peoples’ Congress, the National Party of Nigeria, the
Peoples’ Democratic Party and the All Peoples’ Congress failed in
their desire to be hegemonic or truly dominant through the polls. In
the subsequent elections of 1964, 1983, 2003 and 2019, they all abused
their incumbency powers to transform themselves into dominant parties.
In essence, they used electoral fraud to boast their control of the
political process and weaken opposition parties. At the rate we are
going, competitive party politics will end in 2027 as the ruling party
is determined to run and control every single party in the country.
President Tinubu is convinced that he could take over all the parties
and do what Abacha failed to do – make all political parties declare
him as the sole presidential candidate. At that point, we will
discover if there are still people who believe in and are ready to
fight for democracy in Nigeria.
The greatest challenge facing Nigerian democracy is the absence of a
real and functional party system. Virtually all parties have very
little respect for internal party democracy. That is to say that they
do not conduct their internal affairs based on the principles
enunciated in their constitutions and rules. Party officials and
candidates for elections are not elected in accordance with the rules
of the game. Party conventions become occasions in which the
president, governors and godfathers simply impose candidates of their
choice rather than have candidates voted for by members and delegates.
The lack of internal party democracy weakens the internal coherence of
most political parties and creates a situation where the judiciary
becomes the arbiter of who the candidates are rather than delegates.
Of course, the judiciary is no longer a neutral arbiter, most judges
are corrupt agents who deliver judgements based on the size of the
bribes they have been paid by governments and/or individuals.
Since 1999, civil society and development partners have invested vast
resources in capacity building for political parties. I know because I
have been a resource person in so many such workshops. The United
Nations system, European Union, the Department for International
Development (DFID) of the United Kingdom, United States Agency for
International Development (USAID), IFES, National Democratic Institute
(NDI), International Republican Institute (IRI), the Westminster
Foundation for Democracy and others have invested millions of Dollars,
Pounds and Euros to raise the capacity of political parties but the
impact of the investment has been zero. The main political parties
never attend the sessions and the small ones come only for the per
diem. The parties have not been growing in terms of their membership,
capacity to win seats or democratic practice. Their strengths are
established by how much money they have to bribe, deploy thugs,
control the security agencies or influence INEC.
Political parties become a marketplace in the six months leading to
elections as candidates engage in do or die acts to eliminate rivals
by bribing officials, jailing them or even killing them. Armed with
the ticket, they then bribe voters to vote them into office. This
pathway to power makes nonsense of the normal idea of developing a
party with ideology, principles and a good campaign manifesto and
campaign strategy.
Were political science principles applicable to Nigeria, I would have
said that the pathway to deepening democracy is to engage with
political parties to make party membership less ephemeral and more
real. Nigerian political parties should develop a good membership base
not patrons or clients. The attachment of people should be to
political parties not to patrons or godfathers who pay for their
engagement in the political process. The mode of participation in
political party activities, which is currently mediated by political
bosses to whom people owe allegiance, should change. Ambitious
politicians should stop jumping from a party when they do not get a
position they seek, they should remain in the party and try again next
time. The entrepreneurial approach to politics should be replaced by a
more democratic one based on a new political ethos rooted in
principles and issue-based approach to politics. They will ask me an
important question, who does not know that they are from mars and not
the world of democratic politics. My response would be to write
another column next week.
Professor Jibrin Ibrahim
Senior Fellow
Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja
Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17
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