The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

 

By Moses E. Ochonu

 

It is now quite clear that what happened in Nigeria in 2015 was not a revolution but a scam of historic proportion. To be more specific, it was, as University of Texas Professor and Punch columnist, Adunni Adelakun, put it, a “tribal victory.” How so? 

A core group of politicians and intellectuals from the Northern and Southwestern parts of the country successfully repackaged a former military dictator who had two years earlier been universally reviled as unelectable. A man whose only distinction up to that point was his draconian approach to governance as Head of State in the 1980s as well as his belief that repression and coercion represented an all-purpose solution to all of Nigeria’s problems. 

How they were able to successfully re-inflict him on Nigeria and give the rebranded dictator purchase with Nigerians will preoccupy future historians who will extend their inquiry beyond Buhari’s own personal con in declaring himself a born-again democrat.

On the political side, the most recognizable faces of this ethnic coalition were Bola Tinubu and Nasir El-Rufai. On the intellectual side, there was an army of Northern and Southwestern intellectuals and learned folks who strategically but disguisedly lent their persuasive intellects to the cause and obscured its essentially ethnic character.

This ethnic collective then successfully coopted many intellectuals and politicians and youths from all regions and religions of Nigeria into the project, advancing it as a last-ditch effort to wrestle the nation from 16 years of the PDP’s predatory rule, never mind that the emerging coalition was animated and financed by disgruntled PDP members.

The ethnic battalion behind then candidate Muhammadu Buhari manipulated the naïve youths of Nigeria and the opportunism and naivety of intellectuals and politicians from other regions, harvesting their energies into the political effort that ousted Goodluck Jonathan. Their rhetoric of revolution, reclamation, and their fiction of integrity and ethical cleansing found a receptive audience desperate for change and thus willing to overlook the contradictory records of the messengers.

The core of the 2015 coalition remained decidedly ethnic in composition and ideology. The inner circle never believed in changing Nigeria. They only believed in changing its leadership. For the Southwestern elite, it was about getting back in power through the backdoor of a Buhari presidency. For the North, it was obvious: they looked upon Jonathan as a usurper, as the man who had purportedly taken their turn at the presidency. They wanted back in. This was the foundational premise of regime change in 2015. Everything else was a sophisticated marketing gimmick. But it was gimmickry at its most disarming.

Buhari had proclaimed publicly that late dictator Sani Abacha had not stolen any money from Nigeria and has not retracted that claim despite Nigeria taking possession of multiple streams of Abacha’s cash stash. In spite of that, and in spite of presiding over a cesspool of corruption and waste at the defunct Petroleum Trust Fund, the ethnic coalition settled on the theme of integrity as their point of departure for their campaign.

Even Buhari’s record of parochial insularity was magically transformed into a story of redemptive self-reinvention. He had learned from his failed previous effort to secure the presidency on the misguided premise that support from the north alone could deliver it to him, we were told. This presidential run, the ethnic propagandists claimed, was different from previous ones. They claimed that Buhari was cultivating a broad based national coalition, had shed his northern provincialism, and had embraced a cosmopolitan, ecumenical agenda. 

And yet the evidence of Buhari’s dangerous, obstinate investment in parochial endeavors and claims was inescapable.

It was Buhari who said an attack on Boko Haram was an attack on the north. It was he who said Boko Haram was fighting injustice and that it was wrong to unleash the military on them while conferring amnesty and patronage on Niger Delta oil militants.  

It was Buhari who encouraged Northern Muslims to vote only their kind. It was he who led a delegation of Fulani leaders to former Oyo State Governor Lam Adeshina, asking him “why are your people killing my people?” It was Buhari who declared that he would work for the implementation of Sharia, the Islamic legal system, across Nigeria in disregard of Nigeria’s plural religious heritage. 

This was the same Buhari who ruled with an iron fist as military dictator, locking up journalists and critics and presiding over an inept and misguided pseudo-nationalist economic policy that worsened scarcity, drove up inflation, and killed economic ingenuity. 

This was the real Buhari. But the ethnic coalition capitalized on disenchantment with Goodluck Jonathan’s corruption-ridden administration to claim otherwise or to cast him as remorseful for his past misdeeds, a wiser old man with a different temperament.

Many Nigerians outside the core ethnic constituencies of the coalition fell for this scam. The youths of Nigeria, betrayed by decades of misrule, of which ironically Buhari was a part, fell even harder. They went all in on the sexy message of change.

Ensconced in power, it did not take long for old, familiar Buhari to reemerge. Within a few months of winning the election, both his ethnic insularity and his governing deficits were on full display. 

Even before he was sworn in, he introduced a new, quantified doctrine of 97/5 percent into our political lexicon, indicating that the Igbo, who in his reckoning supplied only five percent of his votes totals in the election, should not expect to be treated in the same way as the regions that gave him “97 percent.” The mathematical fallacy of 97/5 aside, Buhari signaled that he was the same old retired dictator whose only post-retirement claim to fame had been a series of insensitive and downright chauvinistic statements privileging the north and Islam above other regions and religious communities.

More reiterations of Buhari’s provincial insensitivity followed. Asked about the Igbo complaints of marginalization in a televised interview, Buhari screamed, “What do the Igbos want?” and proceeded to patronizingly lecture IPOB Biafra agitators about his role in the civil war and about how, as small boys, they had no understandings of the danger of war.

When Benue was attacked by armed herdsmen resulting in many deaths, instead of mourning with the Benue delegation which visited him in Aso Rock, Buhari paternalistically and insultingly admonished them to go and live in peace with their neighbors. He then followed it up by absolving the armed herdsmen of blame, saying that their grazing routes had been blocked. The coup de gracewas his declaration, repeated in a recent television interview, that more people had been killed in Zamfara than in Benue and Taraba states combined. This was a macabre, self-indicting comparison of questionable veracity and an insulting trivialization of deaths outside his natal Northwest zone.

Buhari’s problem is not merely one of cultural insensitivity but one of a lifelong immersion in the comfort of familiar ethno-religious surroundings and a concomitant aversion to associating, except when duty and ambition required it, with people, ideas, and influences from Nigeria’s other regions.

On the economic front, old Buhari reemerged with a vengeance as though he had unfinished business from his truncated dictatorship. As soon as he took over, he decreed a ban, 1984-style, on the importation of tens of goods and declared that the naira must be defended at all costs, including by imposing restrictions on foreign exchange and raiding reserves to prop up a currency weakened by falling oil prices and the resulting slowdown in the economy. 

This was economic stupidity underwritten by Buhari’s old 1980s brand of economic nationalism, which sees the economy as yet another realm of national life to be tightly controlled, disciplined, and leveraged for national pride. In this backward, outmoded economic thinking, it did not matter that such a policy of tight controls in a monoculture economy is usually the fastest route to a recession. Predictably, Buhari took an admittedly weak economy into a severe, prolonged recession, with double digit inflation, 11 millions jobs lost, and thousands of bankrupt businesses as the outcome.

He had promised to never pay subsidy on petrol but to fix the refineries to provide access to cheap and abundant fuel. He reneged on that promise. Instead, he increased fuel price by about 70 percent and yet his administration now pays more in subsidy than the Jonathan administration ever paid when fuel sold for 87 naira a liter. By what mathematical logic is this subsidy figure possible when crude prices have tumbled? We are told that somehow, between 2015 and 2018, Nigeria’s fuel consumption jumped from about 9 million metric tons to about 15 million metric tons! When challenged to account for this abracadabra, the Buharists’ answer consist of two words: Next level.

Other promises made during the grand ethnic deception of 2014/2015 lay in ruins, disowned and disavowed by the president and his henchmen.

We are told that the Federal Inland Revenue Service now generates more than 5 naira trillion in revenue, and that the Customs for its part adds several more trillions to the federal treasury. However, in 2018, despite Nigeria making about 12 trillion naira from crude oil sales, at least 7 trillion from taxes and duties, and an undisclosed amount from non-oil exports, the country still borrowed 1.6 trillion naira to support a 2018 budget of N9.12 trillion naira!

This arithmetic sleight of hand is the latest evidence of the gargantuan corruption proliferating in Buhari’s administration. The difference is that much of this corruption occurs through the legal appropriations process.

But that’s not to say that it’s the only form of corruption. Buhari has not only tolerated graft, he even wrote to the national assembly in the case of his ex-SGF Babachir Lawal to argue his exoneration only to be trumped and shamed by the overwhelming evidence against the man. Although relieved of his position, Babachir has yet to be prosecuted in accordance with the report of the National Assembly panel that investigated his shady dealings. In fact, he continues to work informally for the president, boasting recently that he has unfettered access to the Buhari and is helping his reelection campaign.

Buhari superintended and approved the reinstatement of pension fugitive, Abdulrasheed Maina, and has failed to order and investigation into corruption allegations against his chief of staff, his army chief, and his minister of internal affairs — the last two accusations involving the acquisitions of properties overseas.

It did not take Buhari long before Buhari’s intolerance for criticism and contrarian views manifested. The Shiites, hundreds of whose members Buhari’s forces massacres are still crying for justice with their leader, Sheikh El-Zakzaky, still in detention and undergoing a secret trial on trumped up charges of murder. Buhari publicly defended the massacre of the Shiites, proving himself comfortable with the gross human rights abuses for which he was known prior to his 2015 political makeover.  Sambo Dasuki, the NSA of the previous administration, remains in detention despite several court orders granting him bail. 

Activist and Buhari critic, Deji Adeyanju, languishes in Kano prison on a farcical charge for which he was acquitted several years ago, the latest victim of the arbitrary detention and harassment rampage of the police and the DSS under Buhari. Dino Melaye remains in detention despite having been earlier detained and granted bail while he underwent trial. Several journalists have been detained, harassed, and intimidated by Buhari’s security forces. The recent invasion of the premises of Daily Trustis the latest saga in Buhari’s war on the media. It is 1984 all over again.

These are all evidence of the old Buhari reasserting himself and refusing to act according to the script written for him by the 2015 ethnic coalition. The selective morality, the exoneration of corrupt loyal allies, the bigotry and parochialism, the economic illiteracy, the intolerance for criticism and dissent, the absence of intellectual curiosity, the malicious insensitivity to Nigeria’s complex ethnoreligious mix, and the lack of a national frame of sociopolitical frame of reference. All these tendencies never went away. They were cleverly disguised behind the rhetoric of change deployed to harness the nervous, desperate energies of unsuspecting citizens in 2015.

This is a rather circuitous way of saying that Buhari’s ethnic coalition got away with arguably the biggest political scam in Nigeria’s history, managing to recruit many unsuspecting Nigerians into what they knew to be an ethnic agenda to capture power. 

I was one of those who almost believed their pitch. I maintained a studious, skeptical neutrality until the last few weeks before the election of 2015, having previously declared that I could not support the profligate and weak administration of Jonathan for another term and that I had too many concerns about Buhari, based on his history. I interrogated the rhetoric of the Buhari coalition and pointed out the incongruity between it and Buhari’s own record, his history. 

Then, when the election was weeks away, some of my social media followers urged me to get off the fence and take a stance because, in their words, that election was too important to be neutral.

I am ashamed to say that I allowed myself to be persuaded by these pleadings and my own emotional, a tad irrational, desire for Nigeria to chart a new course away from that path it was on. In this emotional state, I stated that as a diaspora Nigerian I did not have a vote but that if I could vote I would hold my nose and vote for Buhari, but only as a gamble for change since there was nothing in the man’s record to inspire confidence.

Mine was a tepid, reluctant, and half-hearted endorsement if you could call it that. It was a non-endorsement endorsement. But it still was a public declaration of reluctant hypothetical support.

Even for this weak, late, and qualified acceptance of a deeply flawed candidate, I am now ashamed and feel a need to apologize to my inner, skeptical self, and to my compatriots who are now groaning under the jackboot of the resurgent dictator. 

I should have maintained my neutrality. As a historian and as someone who had written on Buhari’s extensive baggage prior to 2015, I should have known that it was almost impossible for an old man to leave his checkered past behind and reinvent himself in both temperament and capacity. I should have known that, as the popular cliché says, the past is usually a prologue to what to expect, what is to come.

In shedding my usual skepticism and critical distance, I became one of those who unwittingly joined and bolstered what has now unraveled to everyone’s notice: an ethnic coalition that produced an ethnic victory, leading to disillusionment among those who were coopted, seduced, or otherwise tricked into believing in the genuineness of the change movement. 

I now know for a fact that Jonathan was not ousted for being incompetent, weak, or corrupt but for losing the support of Tinubu and the Southwestern political elite who consider him their leader. For the Southwestern political elite, Jonathan committed the political sin of neglecting a region that arguably won him the presidency and for focusing his patronage on the Southeast and the North — the north that unequivocally rejected him in 2011. 

Jonathan lost the presidency because the North always regarded him as a usurper who was enjoying a presidential mandate stolen from them. When these two forces converged, Jonathan could not survive the resulting onslaught. Support from the countervailing ethnic constituencies of the Southeast and South-South was simply not enough to keep him in power. That is the story of 2015, stripped of the pretentious rhetorical nonsense.

Many of those who did not join the coalition for ethnic reasons have since deserted it. Others who remain in the camp have replaced their initial aspirations with opportunistic self-interest. This latter group is small, however. What remains of the 2015 ethnic coalition is largely the original ethnic nucleus of Southwestern and Northern elites — political and intellectual — united only by their thirst for power and its perks.

As for me, the lesson has been internalized for future referencing. I was never a Buharist in the traditional sense but I should have done more to puncture the case for him in 2014/15. More importantly, I should never have yielded to pressure to abandon my neutrality in favor of an endorsement of Buhari, however qualified and half-hearted that endorsement may have been.

 

I am sorry.

 

 

 

 

 

[Chidi Anthony Opara, FIIM]

".....there was nothing in the man’s record to inspire confidence." (Moses Ochonu).

Yet, some intellectuals urged confidence on the man.

This would be an important case study on intellectual dishonesty in Nigeria in future.

After then,there may be remission for the sin committed.

CAO.

[Xena Iris]

Dear BraMoses,

Thank you for this refreshing, unashamedly bold,  undefensive apology!

One point i dispute is the claim that Nigerians were/are "unsuspecting citizens" deceived and hoodwinked by a sophisticated ethnoregional political machinery of Tinubu/Buhari. Nigerians are consistently (and historically!) deliberate in their decisions that only offer short-term gains and long-term loses. The claim that they are unsuspecting citizens is to disempower them and shift the blame and consequnces of their decisions  away from them to some magical, enchanted and enchanting force of Tinubu/Buhari and their acolytes. Nigerians are motivated by their perception of what they stand to gain either as real or as promised. "Those who do not know where the rain began to beat them cannot say where they dried their bodies" (Chinua Achebe).

asonzeh

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[Femi Segun]

Thanks Prof. Many of us were in your shoe. We need to tender a collective apology. In my private reflections, I  have pleaded for atonement several times, when I remembered that I was practically calling people back in Nigeria to vote this unrepentant  ethnic and religious demagogue. But now in 2019, we are again at it: Catch 22.  The rebranding has now been worsened by blatant falsehood and propaganda. While Atiku might have been corrupt as they are saying, I have not seen any difference between the hordes of PMB followers and Atiku. As I responded to one of your posts on the political quagmire that has been the lot of Nigeria,  we need  a concerted programme of political education, to make the voting public understand the inanities of the predatory elites and seek for ways to cause a rupture in this organised criminal system called Nigeria.

Sam.

--

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

Moses Ochonu.

Congratulations. 

I wonder if you could express an opinion on the rationale for Soyinka's role in this debacle. Soyinka tore up his comprehensive earlier critique of Buhari, and endorsed him without clarifying what new things he had seen in Buhari.

Another person who surprised me was Pius Adesanmi, who, declared, even before Buhari's emergence, that the APC candidate would be his candidate. I could not understand why a social critic would so totally align himself with a political party, even with all the evident contradictions of such a party.

Both scholar  writers maintained a studious silence on the embarrassment of the yet unclear educational record of Buhari.

What motivated such figures as these, keeping in mind that everyone has a right to support whom they wish?

toyin

--

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

Edited to Make the Question a General One, for Everybody 

Moses Ochonu.

Congratulations. 

I wonder what the rationale is for Soyinka's role in this debacle. Soyinka tore up his comprehensive earlier critique of Buhari, and endorsed him without clarifying what new things he had seen in Buhari.

Another person who surprised me was Pius Adesanmi, who, declared, even before Buhari's emergence, that the APC candidate would be his candidate. I could not understand why a social critic would so totally align himself with a political party, even with all the evident contradictions of such a party.

Both scholar  writers maintained a studious silence on the embarrassment of the yet unclear educational record of Buhari.

What motivated such figures as these, keeping in mind that everyone has a right to support whom they wish?

toyin

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

A moving response to the Moses post-

Chi Di shared a post.

4 hrs · 

In Nov. 2015, I wrote:

"Once upon a time, we thought we were pursuing progressive activism and participated in the 'Occupy Nigeria' protests.

The same people who organised those protests are now calling on President Buhari to remove the fuel subsidy that President Jonathan removed and was vilified.

All the explanations of the administration then on why the subsidy payment scheme was unsustainable felled on deaf ears. 
We did not know that the organisers had a different agenda.

It is the same way #BringBackOurGirls campaign set out to achieve a different goal other than to bring back any girl (it is becoming clearer that no girl was missing). Not many of us took time to see that the stories/accounts did not add up. More people believed that interesting episode because they saw it on CNN!

Recall the article by Prof.Soludo during the campaign when he used statistics to nail the Jonathan administration.Many people were converted to the Change Mantra after that epic economic thesis. A fact check showed many of his claims were suprious and his information outdated but the hatchet job was already done.

Consider how all the killings and bombings and genocides since the new government and the remarkable silence of our mass media. Compare same with the screaming headlines just a year ago.

Just imagine how you felt when the papers reported the death of some students killed in their dormitory. Yet 105 of our gallant soldiers were killed and buried recently without a word in the mainstream media. Worse, we saw an unprecedented drive to cover it up.

Think about how one person was accused of stealing $20b, $40b, $45b from our commonwealth in this age and time! Even when a worldclass audit firm like PriceWaterCoorpers was hired by the government to audit the NNPC, we did not believe their report. By casting the last administration into such bad light, by deliberately under reporting how the government was handling these issues, you were conditioned to think that Jonathan was clueless.

Today, even with the press deeply silent, we have seen cluelessness at work on all aspects of the economy and our national security.

Furthermore, the news channels, local and international are always driven by an agenda. That you see it on CNN or Sky does not mean it is the absolute truth. These are agencies for mass seduction because they control what and how you think. Real power is having control over people's mind.

Moral:

Not all social activism is driven by public good.

If you do not pause, think , ask questions and make independent research, you will not know when you are used to achieve somebody's agenda.

You may like my beloved Aunty Oby Ezekwesili become a pun in the political chessboard".

Oh well.

This is the season of regrets.

Yadiwa.

Quoting Moses' essay-

"This ethnic collective then successfully coopted many intellectuals and politicians and youth from all regions and religions of Nigeria into the project, advancing it as a last-ditch effort to wrestle the nation from 16 years of the predatory rule pf the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), never mind that the emerging coalition was animated and financed by disgruntled PDP members.

The ethnic battalion behind then candidate Muhammadu Buhari manipulated the naïve youth of Nigeria and the opportunism and naivety of intellectuals and politicians from other regions, harvesting their energies into the political effort that ousted Goodluck Jonathan. Their rhetoric of revolution, reclamation, and their fiction of integrity and ethical cleansing found a receptive audience desperate for change and thus willing to overlook the contradictory records of the messengers"

On Fri, 18 Jan 2019 at 09:41, Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin....@gmail.com> wrote:

To follow responses on this important development in self reflection among Nigerian, particularly Southern Nigerian intelligentsia, watch discussions  on the following links-

Post on Moses Ochonu's Facebook Wall

Kennedy Emetulu's Facebook Response

Igube Cletus' Post

The Article in Premium Times

[Ibukunolu A Babajide]

Dear friends,

This morning, I read this when it was shared in a small intimate group that I belong to.  Let me try and find my response to that group and share it here with you:

"Moses Ebe Ochonu waxes lyrical and hypocritically but forgets that this was the exact situation with Goodluck Jonathan.  He was hijacked as a "Biafran" who has captured power at the centre to the exclusion of Olusegun Obasanjo and the many South west activists who engineered his emergence when Turai and the Yar ar'dua cabal held him hostage!  He omits the tribal coalition around Abubakar Atiku with the IGBO rooting for a shameless thief like Atiku.

What angers me is that as a historian he forgets the Azikiwe/Ahmadu Bello/Balewa ethnic gang up in 1959/1960.  The ethnic 1966 Igbo coup that Ironsi rode to power.  The Shagari/Azikiwe gang up and the ethnic support for Sani Abacha to judicially murder Ken Saro Wiwa and execute Yoruba activists like Madam Tejuosho, Kudirat Abiola, Pa Rewane and MKO Abiola to name a few.  All these attacks on Buhari is a lie.  It is support for Atiku.  A support that is also tribal.    A case of the kettle calling the pot black.  Abeg next bass please!  IBK"

Cheers.

IBK

_________________________

Ibukunolu Alao Babajide (IBK)

(+2348061276622) / ibk...@gmail.com

AN ENGLISH NURSERY RHYME

The law locks up the man or woman

Who steals the goose from off the common

But leaves the greater villain loose

Who steals the common from off the goose

 

The law demands that we atone

When we take things that we do not own

But leaves the lords and ladies fine

Who take things that are yours and mine

 

The poor and wretched don’t escape

If they conspire the law to break

This must be so but they endure

Those who conspire to make the law

 

The law locks up the man or woman

Who steals the goose from off the common

And geese will still a common lack

Till they go and steal it back

 -        Anonymous (circa 1764)

--

[Femi Segun]

IBK,

You have not provided any alternative narrative on the end result of the tragic emergence of Buhari as the President of Nigeria in 2015. Pray, can you fault all the issues raised by the author? How do you justify PMB's aloofness, clannishness and bigotry? When these issues are raised especially in relations to how they affect his performance in government, how does this translate to support for Atiku, afterall there are many contenders for the office of the President in next month election? As intellectuals, we must be free to express our views without being labelled as sell-outs. We unwittingly turn rulers (as in Nigeria) to despots when we try to  silence people who criticise them. When a Presidential candidate cannot differentiate between a Gubernatorial Candidate and a Presidential Candidate as it happened yesterday, when a President can provide the incoherent responses that PMB reportedly provided to the interviewer few days ago, it will amount to greater disservice to the fatherland for anyone to keep pushing for such a person to be re-elected for another four years. Indeed, itn will be clear that such supporters are only interested in the facile and unrealistic ambition of controlling the man once he is elected. We all goofed in 2015. We must not repeat the same mistake in 2019.

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

IBK,

I applaud you for your honesty in admitting that 2015 was an ethnic coalition designed solely to grab power. You even helped to substantiate my argument by pointing to how Jonathan was perceived by Southwestern elites as a leader who repaid the support of the region with neglect and a failure to extend patronage there, as a leader who neglected those who allegedly made him president and instead chose to embrace the Southeast and the North--the north which had unambiguously rejected him in 2011. Other Southwestern intellectuals are not courageous or honest enough to admit it. They continue to stick to the deceptive rhetoric that it was about removing a corrupt, incompetent, and weak leader and charting a new course for Nigeria. 

But I disagree with the entire premise of your response. An earlier ethnic coalition in Nigerian political history does not excuse or cancel out the one of 2015. I never set out to write a history of ethnic coalitions in Nigerian history, so I did not have to excavate and highlight all previous instances of ethnic politics in Nigerian history. Nigerian politics has been infected by ethnicity from the first republic as you rightly stated. I believe Rotimi Suberu, Peter Ekeh, and many others have already done a good job of documenting that history. My piece was only about the coalition of 2015, which masqueraded as a national salvation movement but has since been exposed as a convergence of politically rapacious ethnic agendas. The ethnic coalition managed to recruit many well meaning, unsuspecting folks from outside the two constituencies because those recruits believed, naively it now turns out, that the cause was a genuine effort at national reclamation. I was not recruited but I nonetheless reluctantly and against my critical impulses and my historian's instincts, helped legitimize a fatally flawed and unacceptably bigoted candidate. I succumbed to social media pressure from my followers in the last few weeks before the election after maintaining my usual neutrality and even-handed independence. I regret that blunder and I have apologized to clear my conscience and to assuage those who were disappointed.

You're completely wrong about my position in the current election cycle. I do not and will never support Atiku. I cannot apologize for my reluctant and half-hearted backing of Buhari in 2015 only to support Atiku in 2019. In fact I almost lost a childhood friend because I would not join him to support Atiku. We're now a little estranged because of that, but we're cool again as he has seen my point. I do not have the cognitive dissonance of Buharideens like you who rail against a flawed Atiku but then declare their fanatical support for a lifeless, clueless, corrupt, and congenitally incompetent bigot like Buhari. I have returned to my neutrality, a neutrality that I should have stuck to in 2015. Actually, I'm not neutral since I want the disaster that is Buhari voted out and since I actually have a preference, Omoyele Sowore, whom I know does not have a shot. I am also not naive. I realize that Atiku, being Buhari's most formidable opponent, may be the default and accidental beneficiary of any opposition to Buhari and I am fine with that. However, if Atiku wins, I will immediately shift my critical gaze to him and make sure I hold him accountable. If as his record would lead one to expect, a putative president Atiku messes up, I will be here waiting to pounce. As long as third parties do not break into the political mainstream and elections continue to be between the two leprous parties of PDP and APC, I will not support their candidates. I have learned my lesson from 2015.

 

[Toyin Falola]

Moses:

I read this thread with interest.

One question for Moses and co:

Let me start with a disclaimed: I have only voted once in my life and supported one politician in my entire adult life: Obama first term. I am anti-politician and I don’t hide it. So, dismiss my question.

 

Is the thread not anti-historical, that is using post-events, to then backdate, and use the knowledge, now gained to evaluate the knowledge previously unknown? That is, when you decided to support Buhari, was it not based on the knowledge you knew at that time, and the interpretations you made out of it, and the derivative conclusion? In a divorce analogy, when a man and a woman marry and they later divorced, how would they have known this outcome on the day of their wedding?

 

Toyin Falola

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[Ibrahim Abdullah]

Magic!!! 

The intellectuals invent the politicians; the politicians produce the intellectuals. You cannot decouple one from the other—product of the same concrete situation. 

Sent from my iPhone

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

Toyin Adepoju,

I cannot speak for Soyinka. I know that he still supports Buhari. That is befuddling, given that Buhari has turned out to be a bigger disaster than anyone could have predicted. Also, it was surprising that he backed Buhari in 2015 given his earlier unsparing criticism of Buhari, which he had to essentially retract in order to give Buhari his support. I recall reading a piece he published, saying that Jonathan had failed woefully and that he believed that Buhari had realized his mistakes and wanted to give him a chance to prove his claim that he had changed. I can't play holier than thou and fault him for backing Buhari in 2015. I'm just shocked that he continues to back him despite all that has unfolded in the last three and half years. Perhaps some day we'll get an explanation from the Laureate. As for Pius, I also cannot speak for him. I know for sure that he no longer supports Buhari and has in fact been criticizing Buhari's many misdeeds. He is a friend but I'll let him speak for himself.

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

Asonzeh,

Thanks for your comment. I take your point about not denying agentic rationality to Nigerians who supported the change campaign in 2015. I will say this though: many youths who were not invested in the ethnic narrative of power shift genuinely--perhaps naively--believed that the purveyors and packagers of change meant what they were saying so glibly. That's the duplicitous and deceptive part. If that premise is right, and I think it is because I saw a lot of evidence of it on social media, then the youths were successfully manipulated, and their desperation and frustrations exploited towards an ethnic victory. Some of the bitter disenchantment with Buhari comes from a realization on the part of some of these patriotic youths that their youthful energies were cynically and strategically harnessed by an ethnic coalition to bring Buhari to power for the sake of realizing their parochial agendas rather than as a way of cleansing Nigeria. The caveat, of course, is that there were also many youths from the Southwest and North who were deeply, consciously invested in the underlying project of power shift.

[OLAYINKA AGBETUYI]

Moses:

For me both Atiku and Buhari are northern Fulani ethnic chauvinist. As Osinbajo has put it, it was a matter of deciding which was the better of two 'evils ( lexicon mine)

The Yoruba have an adage ' Rniti ko ba ni ka jeun yo aa ko tie moyan ni' ( We always find a way to accommodate on the dinner table he who will make sure we never settle down to dinner.)  This is another way of putting the English saying ' those who would dine with the devil do so...)

You Must also remember that the non core North have monopolized presidential powers at the No 1 post for most of the current post military political dispensation

Yes both Buhari and Atiku have used terrorist language in the past to get power back to the North.  It was in order not  tofold their hands while the nation was idestabilized that the Save  Nigerian Group set in motion the process that produced Buhari. What if instead of humoribg Buharis demand and give Buhari a chance to prove his credentials he was denied so he and Atiku could join forces to lead the North into a virtual ibtetminable war with the rest of Nigeria?

 What the North should have done while the SNG was head hunting for the next northern President was to have put their best foot forward by stating that the loudest is not necessarily the best.  The system produced what the North put forward as their best.  The rest of the nation had no choice but to agree

Democracy waits... democracy is patient.  The scales have fallen...

OAA

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------

From: Moses Ebe Ochonu <meoc...@gmail.com>

Date: 18/01/2019 00:57 (GMT+00:00)

To: USAAfricaDialogue <USAAfric...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

This message is eligible for Automatic Cleanup! (meoc...@gmail.com) Add cleanup rule | More info

[Okey Iheduru]

Dear Prof. Falola:

I would like to, respectfully, disagree with the premise of your question to Moses and your analogy.

1. The matter here is not like divorce. Even if it is, it would be like the beneficiaries of a monumentally and fatally failed marriage trying to coax/compel/hoodwink/cajole/persuade a spouse who has lived with an abusive, violent, irresponsible, clueless, tyrannical, bigoted, and more importantly, a fantastically "lifeless" and therefore an "impotent" spouse for the past three and half years to agree to live with the same adigboleja spouse for another four years when s/he has a chance to escape this hell on earth. Thankfully, it's not either the loathsome spouse or another potentially loathsome one! The abused partner here has several worthy suitors to choose from and hopefully live a less tortured life thereafter. Nothing wrong with that, my Oga!

2. It takes a real human being to publicly admit one's error of judgement and profusely apologize for it. Moses is a noble man in my books! He made a terrible decision against his wiser self and against overwhelming evidence to the contrary, and he has done a great job cleansing his mind--and the tortured minds of his fellow country folk who similarly fell for what I called clever angling for "ethnic harvest" in the run-up to the 2015 elections. 

Indeed, "ethnic harvest" it has turned out, truly--words on marble! We're always grateful to you, Prof. Falola that our interventions in this forum are all archived.

Peace as always!

Okey Iheduru

Okey C. Iheduru

e-mail: okeyi...@gmail.com

Just published “The African Corporation, ‘Africapitalism’ and Regional Integration in Africa” (September 2018). DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785362538.

[Toyin Falola]

No problem, Okey. Disagreements is our job, as long as we don’t deal in insults which I abhor.

 

Alas!  I was talking about methodology of analysis, you are talking about apology. His apology is his, tied to his belief. He is not speaking for the Idoma or any collective. So, he is talking to a specific cluster in his Face Book. I don’t know how face book works although my son and son in law work for them. I don’t have one and I don’t read it.

 

So, I know you, and in my estimation, you are good man. I have visited your house, you have attended events in my honor. This is the evidence I have, the only evidence. And this evidence confirms to me all that is positive about you, as of today, January 18. The evidence that Moses knew of Buhari 4 years ago is what led to his decision then; the evidence for his apology is what he now knows.  My question, which has nothing to do with his apology that he is entitled to, is what methodology allows him to do that? Can he change his mind, yes.

 

Now, suppose, and God forbid, you are to do something today that is untoward, I could change my perception of you. In this change, there is data that feeds my new thinking. I am interested in this methodology.

 

However, if Moses’ premise is that he ignored those anti-Buhari remarks, as those of Ikhide who angrily left the forum because of those he described as Yoruba intellectuals who were supporting Buhari, it represents another methodology. I will now pose a question: why did you not factor what Ikihide is saying before you supported Buhari?

 

To repeat, I am interested in the methodology to interpret the past. Even if Moses had supported Jonathan, unless he is seeing himself as a God, it would not have made a difference to the outcome of that elections but to his emotions.

 

I am also interested in yet another question: If you saw the recent interview of Buhari, he could not answer questions, he has hearing problems, he lacks grasp---none of this is my interpretation, but the data that Buhari himself gave me, why do you want to vote for him?

TF

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

Oga Falola,

We're both historians so this one should be easy. Yes, the future is unknown and we historians don't try to predict the future or human behavior like political scientists do. However, we study the past precisely because we want to glean something from it about the present, a present which can and often does determine the future. Thus the study of history is ultimately about the present and the future. If I'm on sound methodological ground so far then it follows that it is not enough to simply say "I couldn't have predicted Buhari's disastrous administration when I backed him." The relevant question would be, what do his antecedents, speeches, and record as head of state and as a civilian serial candidate for president prior to 2015 indicate about his tendencies, his weaknesses, deficits, and predilections. With the archive of Buhari's past available to us in 2015, any diligent historian or meticulous observer had enough material to inform a judgment other than the one many intellectuals and politicians reached--the one that I reluctantly, half-heartedly reached against my own instincts.

[Toyin Falola]

I accept the reply, and the last line is the real issue here: how instincts trump facts. On that you must apologize! You are doing so not to alter facts and events but as emotional cleansing.

A number of people have stolen my money, but I gave them the money on instincts, not on fact, as I actually know that they have unpaid debts to others. So, I blame myself instead of blaming them.

As I told Ken Kalu, a Buhari supporter, who now regrets it, I did not like Jonathan and I do not like Buhari, but because I had met Jonathan in connections with UNESCO work and AU, I do not believe he has the discipline and mental capacity to lead a nation. I don’t like Atiku and I don’t like Buhari but someone must manage a chaotic state, to curtail or expand that chaos. This is Nigeria’s crisis, one that you and I cannot control at this particular moment. As of today, only death can stop Buhari from being reelected because forces have been created to keep him in power.

TF

[OLAYINKA AGBETUYI]

Moses.

Human beings have the capacity to change.  Murtalas who was accused of untoward activities during the Biafra war turned out to be an efficient revolutionary ruler.  So their is no need for self mortification on your part. Atiku could win the election and contrary to Obasanjos wishes demonstrate he hasn't changed in any way and encourage more corruption and incompetence. On the other hand he could be the best ruler for the times ( after giving up I'll gotten gains as admonished by the Nazarene)

Que Sera Sera.

OAA

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------

From: Moses Ebe Ochonu <meoc...@gmail.com>

[Emmanuel Udogu]

Moses, there is no need for an apologia, some of us who are students of politics, and political ethnicity in particular, would contend. Juxtapose the 2015 election against that of Trump and his peculiar coalition. Both political phenomena--in Nigeria and US--have left many scratching their head--even amongst those who understand the "Art of Politics." Machiavelli's dictum "the end justifies the means" is alive and will, sadly, always guide the actions of politicos. My view is that the "law of self-interest" trumps dogma. Witness, for example, the role that the so-called evangelicals and other shady groups played in electing the US president. Today, some of these groups are experiencing buyer's remorse. I rest my case!

Ike Udogu

[Ayotunde Bewaji]

Am happy our intellectuals are only parroting Trump, calling Buhari "lifeless", not Kanu, saying Buhari is "dead". Maybe there is redemption on the horizon, and they will not start hailing Atikulooter, to get Nigeria Atikulooted, and all of us "A ti ku" patapata porogodo.

E go beta, na im no let poor man lef Lagos.

Ire o.

Dr. John Ayotunde (Tunde) Isola BEWAJI, FJIM, MNAL
Professor of Philosophy
BA, MA, PhD Philosophy, PGDE, MA Distance Education
Postgraduate Certificate in Philosophy for Children
Department of Language, Linguistics and Philosophy
Faculty of Humanities and Education
University of the West Indies
Mona Campus Kingston 7 Jamaica
Tel:       1-876-927-1661-9 Ext: 3993
             1-876-935-8993 (o)
Fax:      1-876-970-2949
Email:   john....@uwimona.edu.jm      johnayotu...@gmail.com       tunde...@yahoo.com (alternate) 
             tunde....@gmail.com (alternate)

http://www.cap-press.com/books/isbn/9781611630879/Narratives-of-Struggle (2012)
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Aesthetics (2012)

https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739185032/Ontologized-Ethics (2013)

https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781498518383/The-Rule-of-Law-and-Governance-in-Indigenous-Yoruba-Society-A-Study-in-African-Philosophy-of-Law (2016)

http://www.cambridgescholars.com/the-humanities-and-the-dynamics-of-african-culture-in-the-21st-century (2017)

[OLAYINKA AGBETUYI]

How many of the other 'suitors have the clout of an Atiku or the power of incumbency of a Buhari?

They say people deserve the ruler they get in a democracy.  Nigerians will prove this saying right next month.

OAA.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------

From: Okey Iheduru <okeyi...@gmail.com>

Date: 18/01/2019 17:39 (GMT+00:00)

To: USAAfrica Dialogue <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>, meoc...@gmail.com

Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

This message is eligible for Automatic Cleanup! (okeyi...@gmail.com) Add cleanup rule | More info

Dear Prof. Falola:

I would like to, respectfully, disagree with the premise of your question to Moses and your analogy.

1. The matter here is not like divorce. Even if it is, it would be like the beneficiaries of a monumentally and fatally failed marriage trying to coax/compel/hoodwink/cajole/persuade a spouse who has lived with an abusive, violent, irresponsible, clueless, tyrannical, bigoted, and more importantly, a fantastically "lifeless" and therefore an "impotent" spouse for the past three and half years to agree to live with the same adigboleja spouse for another four years when s/he has a chance to escape this hell on earth. Thankfully, it's not either the loathsome spouse or another potentially loathsome one! The abused partner here has several worthy suitors to choose from and hopefully live a less tortured life thereafter. Nothing wrong with that, my Oga!

2. It takes a real human being to publicly admit one's error of judgement and profusely apologize for it. Moses is a noble man in my books! He made a terrible decision against his wiser self and against overwhelming evidence to the contrary, and he has done a great job cleansing his mind--and the tortured minds of his fellow country folk who similarly fell for what I called clever angling for "ethnic harvest" in the run-up to the 2015 elections. 

Indeed, "ethnic harvest" it has turned out, truly--words on marble! We're always grateful to you, Prof. Falola that our interventions in this forum are all archived.

Peace as always!

Okey Iheduru

Okey C. Iheduru

e-mail: okeyi...@gmail.com

Just published “The African Corporation, ‘Africapitalism’ and Regional Integration in Africa” (September 2018). DOI: https://doi.org/10.4337/9781785362538.

--

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

Wow!

I thank God I am experiencing this.

Thanks for your responses, Moses.

Speaking to the group generally now, I was at a loss as to how to respond bcs one does not want to seem triumphant that one's perceptions have been proven right since that could go agst the need   to  amplify the profound significance of Moses' self analysis as a historical thinker and political actor, as the day increasingly breaks for us.

A  greater challenge in this horror is to reflect on how an opposition initiated by Boko Haram Islamic terrorism, their 2011 escalation based on the 'power must return to the North' mantra, was built upon by various political stakeholders, from the PDP discontents, from Kwankwaso of Kano to Amaechi of Rivers, to OBJ,  to other political leaders such as Tinubu of AC, to the eventual treasonous  action by Shettima of Bornu that enabled the Chibok kidnap that destroyed the global credibility of the GEJ govt, to extra-party actors such as Soyinka and Chukwuma Soludu to push an agenda in which the core actors were simply building on 'the power must return to the North' vision for various self or clique serving purposes and dressing a known vicious character as the agent of change.

The struggle is just beginning in earnest.

Atiku and Buhari belong to the same ethno-religious/right wing mindset. Any opposition between them is not of fundamental significance.

The movement they belong to has successfully cornered the Presidency. Fulani herdsmen's terrorism, a coalition of merciless fighters, politicians and civil society pressure groups,  is the most prominent expression of this movement. The war agst Boko Haram that is not being won and the claims  about sabotage of the army's efforts might be another wing of that initiative.

I anticipate, in the not too far future, the ideas being pushed for Boko Haram to be granted political recognition, perhaps along the lines of the incorporation  of Hezbollah into the Lebanese govt,   though important distinctions exist between that scenario and the Nigerian situation. I am of the view that with the tight coordination represented by Fulani herdsmen's terrorism, we already have a terrorist initiative, like Bashir's use of the Janjaweed in Sudan, in control of Aso Rock in the person of Buhari.

The only hope, within the political system, for a robust opposition to these figures is for all other Presidential aspirants, particularly from the South, to form a coalition, one centred on specific values and to sustain this  till they seize power , avoiding carpet crossing, 

Southern Nigerian politicians, in my view however, are not particularly politically astute in national politics,  like the South generally, except for the generality of the SE, made wise by 1966-1970 and thereafter, although their politicians are also survivalists like others.  

What has the SW got from the debacle of the APC? Its strongest  figures have been reduced, their credibility made nonsense of. Fashola, the golden boy of Lagos state, in a job for which his competence is questionable,  is now known as minister of darkness, his hard won aura dissipated. Osinbajo seen as a foolish  errand boy. Tinubu as a  one eyed strategist. 

Given the absolute desperation represented by the radical orientation of a Buhari it would have been a miracle   if an arrangement amongst the political opportunists represented by APC had been adequately honored. As it is the technocratic culture the SW is associated with has been shown at the national level to be no better than the ooze of muddy open air gutters gutters in Lagos.

The struggle is just beginning.

toyin

[OLAYINKA AGBETUYI]

Oga  Moses:

I have not been following Sowores trail, thanks to the larger than life dominance of the other two gladiatorsl. Can you enlighten us on how he plans to deal with some of those issues in which you found Buhari wanting?

  Maybe it may persuade some of us to trumpet his candidacy in these dying days of the presidential contest.

AS for the current ethnic Fulani coalition which paralleled the way Zik was literally begged to enter the political fray in 1979 to stop the possibility of Awo becoming President, this intra ethnic coalition is to ensure that no matter what befalls Buhari either through I'll health or electoral defeat power remains with Fulani North.  Cast the way things are the architects have a win- win situation.

If during campaigns there are clear signs of impending terminal weakness ( a scenario your ally Farooq Kperogi tried to conjure in his latest column)leading to suspicion Buhari may not have the robust health to complete a second term then the coalition machinery will instruct that Buharis votes be delivered to Atiku rather than have a repeat of the YarAdua/ Jonathan situation.

What I have to say to this pre-emptive strategy is that only God gives and takes life. Buhari was in robust health when campaigning for the first term only to succumb to I'll health on assumption of office.  Not a few people have written him off that he would like YarAdua come back home in a coffin before his miraculous recovery.

What gives these ethnic jingoists the assurance that  if  Atiku  won,  being a fellow gerontocrat ( your word) would not succumb to the pressures of office before he completes the first year?

Yes, politics is a matter of inter/ intra ethic coalitions; some are nobler than others.

And finally do you agree with Kperogi's ttypologies that in essence some Fulani are stranger to each other than they are to the Yoruba even while Buhari is quoted as asking " why your people are killing my people?'

Que Sera Sera.

OAA

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------

From: Moses Ebe Ochonu <meoc...@gmail.com>

Date: 18/01/2019 00:57 (GMT+00:00)

To: USAAfricaDialogue <USAAfric...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

This message is eligible for Automatic Cleanup! (meoc...@gmail.com) Add cleanup rule | More info

[OLAYINKA AGBETUYI]

Let me be very clear again about my own position: there is opportunism going on in the North as much as anywhere else.  That Buhari fed into this opportunism is not surprising as the fact Atiku is feeding into it for the umpteenth time.  It's a power game. In a democracy the people are the pawns.And that is why electoral promises are kept mainly in the breach.

Power rotating to the North means power rotatng to the clique of the person making the claim and hangers on. Conversely power rotating away from a locus e.g South (or bluntly Jonathan) means power rotaing away from the principal and the clientele.  As baba Kadiri rightly maintain this should not matter; only good governance should matter not who delivers governance; that is in the ideal world. No where in the real world (any where in the world) is this strictly so.  In the case if Nigeria ethno- geography is the catchment area and power base.  In the other places however a semblance of delivery on political promises is achieved as Jibrin Ibrahim maintained.

If your ' terrorist enablers' get to power and deliver (on beneficial electoral promises) who would care where they come from!  But what if the opposition politicized such delivery into non existence?

So long as we live in a democracy of free speech and individual agency the extremities of your fears may never be realized as (negative) actions will provoke counter reactions.

OAA

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------

From: Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin....@gmail.com>

Date: 18/01/2019 23:37 (GMT+00:00)

To: usaafricadialogue <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

This message is eligible for Automatic Cleanup! (toyin....@gmail.com) Add cleanup rule | More info

Wow!

I thank God I am experiencing this.

Thanks for your responses, Moses.

Speaking to the group generally now, I was at a loss as to how to respond bcs one does not want to seem triumphant that one's perceptions have been proven right since that could go agst the need   to  amplify the profound significance of Moses' self analysis as a historical thinker and political actor, as the day increasingly breaks for us.

A  greater challenge in this horror is to reflect on how an opposition initiated by Boko Haram Islamic terrorism, their 2011 escalation based on the 'power must return to the North' mantra, was built upon by various political stakeholders, from the PDP discontents, from Kwankwaso of Kano to Amaechi of Rivers, to OBJ,  to other political leaders such as Tinubu of AC, to the eventual treasonous  action by Shettima of Bornu that enabled the Chibok kidnap that destroyed the global credibility of the GEJ govt, to extra-party actors such as Soyinka and Chukwuma Soludu to push an agenda in which the core actors were simply building on 'the power must return to the North' vision for various self or clique serving purposes and dressing a known vicious character as the agent of change.

The struggle is just beginning in earnest.

Atiku and Buhari belong to the same ethno-religious/right wing mindset. Any opposition between them is not of fundamental significance.

The movement they belong to has successfully cornered the Presidency. Fulani herdsmen's terrorism, a coalition of merciless fighters, politicians and civil society pressure groups,  is the most prominent expression of this movement. The war agst Boko Haram that is not being won and the claims  about sabotage of the army's efforts might be another wing of that initiative.

I anticipate, in the not too far future, the ideas being pushed for Boko Haram to be granted political recognition, perhaps along the lines of the incorporation  of Hezbollah into the Lebanese govt,   though important distinctions exist between that scenario and the Nigerian situation. I am of the view that with the tight coordination represented by Fulani herdsmen's terrorism, we already have a terrorist initiative, like Bashir's use of the Janjaweed in Sudan, in control of Aso Rock in the person of Buhari.

The only hope, within the political system, for a robust opposition to these figures is for all other Presidential aspirants, particularly from the South, to form a coalition, one centred on specific values and to sustain this  till they seize power , avoiding carpet crossing, 

Southern Nigerian politicians, in my view however, are not particularly politically astute in national politics,  like the South generally, except for the generality of the SE, made wise by 1966-1970 and thereafter, although their politicians are also survivalists like others.  

What has the SW got from the debacle of the APC? Its strongest  figures have been reduced, their credibility made nonsense of. Fashola, the golden boy of Lagos state, in a job for which his competence is questionable,  is now known as minister of darkness, his hard won aura dissipated. Osinbajo seen as a foolish  errand boy. Tinubu as a  one eyed strategist. 

Given the absolute desperation represented by the radical orientation of a Buhari it would have been a miracle   if an arrangement amongst the political opportunists represented by APC had been adequately honored. As it is the technocratic culture the SW is associated with has been shown at the national level to be no better than the ooze of muddy open air gutters gutters in Lagos.

The struggle is just beginning.

toyin

On Fri, 18 Jan 2019 at 20:27, OLAYINKA AGBETUYI <yagb...@hotmail.com> wrote:

[OLAYINKA AGBETUYI]

Akiika!  Well executed pun.

OAA

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------

From: 'Ayotunde Bewaji' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>

Date: 18/01/2019 19:45 (GMT+00:00)

To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com

Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

This message is eligible for Automatic Cleanup! (usaafric...@googlegroups.com) Add cleanup rule | More info

Am happy our intellectuals are only parroting Trump, calling Buhari "lifeless", not Kanu, saying Buhari is "dead". Maybe there is redemption on the horizon, and they will not start hailing Atikulooter, to get Nigeria Atikulooted, and all of us "A ti ku" patapata porogodo.

E go beta, na im no let poor man lef Lagos.

Ire o.

Dr. John Ayotunde (Tunde) Isola BEWAJI, FJIM, MNAL
Professor of Philosophy
BA, MA, PhD Philosophy, PGDE, MA Distance Education
Postgraduate Certificate in Philosophy for Children
Department of Language, Linguistics and Philosophy
Faculty of Humanities and Education
University of the West Indies
Mona Campus Kingston 7 Jamaica
Tel:       1-876-927-1661-9 Ext: 3993
             1-876-935-8993 (o)
Fax:      1-876-970-2949
Email:   john....@uwimona.edu.jm      johnayotu...@gmail.com       tunde...@yahoo.com (alternate) 
             tunde....@gmail.com (alternate)

http://www.cap-press.com/books/isbn/9781611630879/Narratives-of-Struggle (2012)
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Aesthetics (2012)

https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739185032/Ontologized-Ethics (2013)

https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781498518383/The-Rule-of-Law-and-Governance-in-Indigenous-Yoruba-Society-A-Study-in-African-Philosophy-of-Law (2016)

http://www.cambridgescholars.com/the-humanities-and-the-dynamics-of-african-culture-in-the-21st-century (2017)

On Friday, 18 January 2019, 12:21:15 GMT-5, Toyin Falola <toyin...@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:

[OLAYINKA AGBETUYI]

How do the politicians produce the intellectuals?

OAA

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------

From: Ibrahim Abdullah <ibdu...@gmail.com>

Date: 18/01/2019 16:42 (GMT+00:00)

To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com

Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

This message is eligible for Automatic Cleanup! (ibdu...@gmail.com) Add cleanup rule | More info

Magic!!! 

The intellectuals invent the politicians; the politicians produce the intellectuals. You cannot decouple one from the other—product of the same concrete situation. 

Sent from my iPhone

On 18 Jan 2019, at 15:30, Toyin Falola <toyin...@austin.utexas.edu> wrote:

[Bayo Amos]

Moses,

On the political side, the most recognizable faces of this ethnic coalition were Bola Tinubu and Nasir El-Rufai. On the intellectual side, there was an army of Northern and Southwestern intellectuals and learned folks who strategically but disguisedly lent their persuasive intellects to the cause and obscured its essentially ethnic character. 

Here is a link to 2015 presidential election results which I have made into two readable plots below:

2015 Presidential elections results vs Party/Geopolitical zones

2015 Presidential election results vs states/geopolitical zones

In 2015, Buhari won NW, NE, NC and SW but lost only SS and SE geopolitical zones. In previous election cycles in 2003, 2007 and 2011, he did well in NW/NE but lost the remaining geopolitical zones. You concluded that somehow SW supported Buhari because of some ethnic agenda. One would like to ask if Jonathan lost NC for the same reason and whose agenda was it? Or did the SS/SE support Jonathan in 2015 because he ran a competent and a successful administration ? 

Tinubu was instrumental in getting Buhari APC presidential ticket ahead of Kwankwaso, Atiku and Rochas who came 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively in the APC presidential primary.

However, in the election proper, SW was divided, state by state--that much is glaring in the two plots included in this email and Jonathan even won Ekiti. Tinubu political machinery (read ACN pre-APC merger) provided some help, but it would take some sort of dishonesty or even mischievousness to look at the presidential election results, especially a closely fought race in SW and came to the conclusion that SW supported Buhari on ethnic grounds. On what grounds did approximately 48% of SW electorate oppose Buhari?

Thanks,

Bayo.

[Salimonu Kadiri]

​Moses Ebe Ochonu has set up a moral tribunal and with a twisted version of recent political events in Nigeria he is putting Muhammadu Buhari on trial for tribal misdemeanour. On the election victory of Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, Moses asserted, "What happened in 2015 was a tribal victory." Since Nigeria contains many ethnicities, one is bound to ask which of the more than two-hundred ethnic groups in Nigeria won the presidential election in 2015? As if he anticipated that that question will be posed, Moses explained a tribal victory thus, "A core group of politicians and intellectuals from the Northern and Southwestern parts of the country repackage a former military dictator who had two years earlier been universally reviled as unelectable." Moses is an intellectual who admits to being a Northerner and a supporter of Buhari in 2015. He is now apologizing for supporting Buhari to victory in the 2015 presidential elections. Although Moses is a northerner like Buhari, they are not of the same tribe. In fact, Northern part of Nigeria contains several tribes. The people of Southwestern part of Nigeria are not of the same tribe with either Moses Ochonu or Muhammadu Buhari. Therefore, attribution of the presidential election victory of Buhari in 2015 to an ethnic group is wrong and fraudulent. Truly, Buhari was a former military dictator but that should not disqualify him from contesting election as a civilian just like the former military dictator, General Olusegun Obasanjo, who ruled for eight years as a civilian president under the platform of PDP.

​For the Southwestern elite, it was about getting back in power through the backdoor of a Buhari Presidency. For the North, it was obvious: they looked upon Jonathan as a usurper, as the man who had purportedly taken their turn at the presidency - Moses E. Ochonu

​Politically considered, there is a big difference between the expressions Southwestern (Nigeria) and North (meaning Northern Nigeria). A quick reflection on our history will remind us that on 27 May 1967, the then Lieutenant Colonel Yakubu Gowon split Nigeria into twelve states out of the then existing four regions. The twelve States had since trippled into thirty-six states. During the constitutional conferences that took place under Babangida and Abacha, it was the late Dr. Alex Ekwueme that suggested division of Nigeria into six geo-political zones for better economic and administrative purposes. The six Geo-political zones are : North-Central, North-East, North-West, South-East, South-South and South-West. Obviously, the political expressions - Northern Region, Western Region, Eastern Region and Midwest Region had ceased to exist from 27 May 1967 as they have now been replaced with 36 States. The North had ceased to be a single political entity and it is now composed of nineteen states or three geo-political zones just as the west is now composed of six states or a geo-political zone. Out of the six states in the Southwest geo-political zone, Ekiti and Ondo states were controlled by the PDP during 2015 elections and as such, were not part of the APC at the election of 2015. In the South-South geo-political zone, Rivers State and Edo states were part of APC just as the Imo state of the South-East geo-political zone in the 2015 election. Hence, it is mischievous to claim that APC was able to bring Muhammadu Buhari to power because of an alliance between the ethnic Yoruba and ethnic Hausa/Fulani. APC could not have been permitted to participate in the 2015 elections if it was not a national party as required by the constitution and electoral laws.

​I now know for a fact that Jonathan was not ousted for being incompetent, weak, or corrupt but for losing the support of Tinubu and Southwestern political elite who consider him their leader. For the Southwestern political elite, Jonathan committed the political sin of neglecting a region that arguably won him the presidency and for focussing his patronage on the Southeast and the North that unequivocally rejected him in 2011 - Moses E. Ochonu.

​Jonathan could not have won the presidential election of 2011 if the North had rejected him and if the entire South alone had voted for him. The Presidential election was preceded with the argument, especially from the PDP members from the North, about if Jonathan was qualified to contest in view of the rotational agreement between North and South inscribed in the PDP constitution. They argued that Jonathan was only to complete the remaining two years of the first four years of the deceased Yar'Adua's presidency out of the eight years in which a northerner ought to have ruled Nigeria before it returned to the South according to the PDP constitution. Most Nigerians considered the constitution of PDP subordinate to the Constitution of Nigeria which entitled Jonathan to contest the 2011 constitution, especially as he was the sitting President. It is worthwhile remembering that Atiku had left PDP in 2007 to contest Presidential election on the platform of AC which he lost to Yar'Adua of the PDP that year. But after the demise of Yar'Adua and Jonathan became the substantive President, Atiku calculated coldly that PDP presidential candidate in 2011 elections would come from the North therefore, he abandoned AC to re- join PDP, with confidence that he would win the PDP presidential primary in 2010 against Jonathan. Atiku Abubakar contested the presidential primary election dominated by delegates from the North and failed woefully while Jonathan won it overwhelmingly. The Presidential elections of 16 April 2011 had total registered voters of 73, 528,040, out of which 39,469,484 votes were recorded, but 38,209,978 votes were declared valid. Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP won 58.89% of the votes, translating to 22,495,187 votes while Muhammadu Buhari of the CPC won 31.98% of the votes, translating to 12,214,853 votes. During the campaigns for the Presidential elections, Jonathan had told Nigerians that he grew up a shoeless school boy and that he had experienced the same poverty most Nigerians were living under. Elderly Nigerians called Jonathan our son while the younger generations called him our brother. Everybody saw in him a person who knew where the shoes were pinching impoverished Nigerians and for that reason they voted for him. Nigerians did not care about the ethnic origin of Goodluck Jonathan, rather they regarded him as a leader that would turn their impoverishments into wealth. He knew what Nigerians expected of him and that was why he told Nigerians emphatically in paragraph 30 of his presidential inaugural speech on 29 May 2011 thus, "Fellow citizens, in every decision, I shall always place the common good before all else. The bane of corruption shall be met by the overwhelming force of our collective determination, to rid our nation of this scourge. The fight against corruption is a war in which we must all enlist, so that the limited resources of this nation will be used for the collective growth of our commonwealth." In office he acted differently and the limited resources of the nation were shared among his political cronies. If according to Moses Ochonu, Goodluck Jonathan's presidency had neglected only the States in the Southwest and had, instead, focussed on infrastructural and economic developments in the South-South, Southeast, North-central, Northeast and Northwest alone, he would have been re-elected in 2015, regardless of whether the people of Southwest states voted for him or not. And if Jonathan had not been corrupt and incompetent in office, it would not have been so easy, not only, for a friend to market Buhari to Moses Ochonu but to seduce his support for Buhari's election victory in 2015. Moses had already been disgusted with Jonathan which was why he allowed himself to be convinced to shift his support from Jonathan to Buhari. It did not make sense to assert that "Jonathan lost the presidency because the North had always regarded him as a usurper who was enjoying the presidential mandate stolen from them," while at the same time claiming that he, Jonathan, invested in economic and infrastructural developments in the North more than in the South-South. The question then is what would a president of Northern stock have done in the North if Jonathan had not usurped the presidency?

​When Benue was attacked by armed herdsmen resulting in many deaths, instead of mourning with the Benue delegation which visited him in Aso Rock, Buhari paternalistically and insultingly admonished them to go and live in peace with their neighbours - Moses Ochonu.

​I respect Professor Moses Ebe Ochonu a lot which is why I am surprised that he decided to dishonestly quote Buhari out of context. The present Benue State has always been, and is still regarded as, part of the North. When the agitation for Middle Belt Region was intense in the hey days of Joseph Tarka and others, many from that region desired to remain Northerners because it gave educational and employment advantages over the less Western educated Hausa/Fulani majority in the then Northern Region. It was that Northerner epitet which a Middle-belter, Lieutenant Colonel Yakubu Gowon, exploited on August 1, 1966, when he shoved aside his seniors Brigadier Babafemi Ogundipe, Colonel Adeyinka Adebayo including nine Lieutenant Colonels who were senior to him by dates of promotion to become Nigeria's Head of State. When riots in the North became abnormal at the end of September 1966, Lt-Col. Yakubu Gowon in his noon radio Kaduna broadcast of 1 October 1966, and in which he appealed for cessation of riots said among other things, "God in his power, has entrusted the responsibility of this great country of ours, Nigeria, to the hands of another Northerner." Benue is not only part of the North, it is a part of Nigeria where internal migrations and permanent places of abode have occurred in the last three hundred years across the country. Like many other Nigerians, Fulani herdsmen have moved and settled permanently in many communities across Nigeria and dating back to over a hundred year.

​In Benue, Fulani herdsmen have lived there for over a century and they have no other hometown in Nigeria than their place of abode in Benue. For years Benue Fulani herdsmen had grazed their cattle in free growing bushes in the vicinities without problem. Suddenly, Fulani herdsmen were not only declared aliens in Benue, but the State government enacted anti open grazing law that prohibited herdsmen from freely grazing their cattle in free growing bushes as they have done for centuries. To enforce the anti open grazing law, the Benue State government recruited a hoard of what it termed Livestock guards, empowered to seize cattle from herdsmen grazing cattle freely in the bush that none has grown. Clashes between herdsmen and livestock guards in Benue was what Moses erroneously referred to as one-sided attack by herdsmen on Benue resulting in many deaths. Many of the Fulani herdsmen that were suddenly declared alien settlers by those who considered themselves as indigenes of Benue and owners of ancestral forest land, were born and have lived in Benue throughout their lives and even long before Moses Ebe Ochonu himself was born. If a place of birth legitimatizes ones right to claim ancestral land, then Fulani herdsmen born and bread in Benue and elsewhere in Nigeria have the right to ancestral land at any place of their births in Nigeria. Truly, all Nigerians have rights to God created ancestral air, sun, rain and land within Nigeria's geographical space. That was the main reason why Buhari admonished the Benue delegation to live in peace with their neighbours. Buhari did not stop there, he initiated a move immediately to find solution to the problem of herdsmen wandering aimlessly to find grazing sites for their cattle. Incidentally, the Minister of Agriculture, Audu Ogbe, is an indigene of Benue. He came up with the idea of ranching, to be subsidized by the government as it had done for crops' farmers. Intellectual traffickers in lies renamed ranching, cow colonies while character assassins foresaw mosques growing up everywhere in the country if ranching was implemented. Moses Ochonu has imputed meanings that Buhari never intended in his admonition to the Benue delegates, that visited him at Aso Rock, to live in peace with their neighbours, referring tacitly to Fulani herdsmen that have had Benue as their permanent place of abode for centuries.

As for the fight against corruption, it is appalling that some renowned intellectuals are deodorizing 16 years of PDP corruptions while spraying insecticide on APC for talking about PDP's corruptions that have brought the nation into the economic ruins the country is now suffering from. Booty sharers who crossed over from the sinking ship of PDP now turn around to say that Buhari has caused what they term *money drought* in Nigeria because government money is no longer raining into their pockets. They accused Buhari of not carrying them along and when Buhari jokingly asked them to come and sit on his shoulders, quack Doctors from the backpage of Tribune diagnosed him for dementia for not understanding that it is people's money they want him to share with them. In the same vein, Moses Ebe Ochonu came with a hashtag a while ago tagged, #Bring BackOurCorruption in which he argued that corrupt officials who loot the national treasury, spend looted funds which eventually trickle down to the pepper sellers by the road side. On the contrary, when corrupt officials loot, they purchase private jets, buy series of exotic cars, and buy mansions in Dubai, London, New York and California. And as such, trickle down effects of spending by Nigerian looters occur abroad and not in Nigeria. While one cannot guarantee that there are no corrupt people in Buhari's administration, it is nearly 100% certain that Buhari is personally honest. Before joining, in 2015, a delegate led by Abdulsalam Abubakar to meet President Buhari for the purpose of pleading to him to soften his corruption enquiries into the government of former President Jonathan, Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah warned Buhari in a transcript speech published in the online Sahara Reporters. Parts of the speech read, "President Buhari is not new on the block. He came and saw but we all know the story. In declaring a war against corruption, he lost his job. It is quite interesting that none of all of those who have suddenly become vocal now in the war against corruption went out on the streets to condemn the overthrow of their hero. If Nigerians were so convinced about the war against corruption, why did they all cross to the other side of the street where President Babangida was already offering them decaffeinated form of war by stating that the overthrow of Buhari had become necessary because, in his words on August 27th, 1985, 'Muhammadu Buhari was too rigid and uncompromising in his attitude to issues of national significance?' ..//..

AS I have indicated earlier, he (Buhari) was overthrown when he embarked on his war against corruption and indiscipline. None of us went out on the streets to show solidarity with him. We embraced Babangida...." (http://www.saharareporters.com/2015/10/07/excerpt-bishop-kukah-speech-lagos). Sentimentally, Sowore, Moghalu and Ezekwesiele are worthy presidential candidates but realistically and effectively, only Buhari has the strength and will to deal decisively with the problems of corruptions that are obstructing the industrial and economic developments of Nigeria. 

S. Kadiri     

 

---

Från: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> för Moses Ebe Ochonu <meoc...@gmail.com>
Skickat: den 18 januari 2019 01:16
Till: USAAfricaDialogue
Ämne: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

 

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

Bayo Amos (the legendary Bola Tinubu defender),

I called it an ethnic coalition of the North and SS. And I mentioned Tinubu and el-Rufai, but in your zealous haste to defend Tinubu, you missed my use of the word "coalition" and my mention of El-Rufai and the North. You're erecting a straw man--that I suggested that the SW alone made Buhari president, which I never did. Go ahead and beat up your straw man to your satisfaction. You also forgot my mention of SW intellectuals who lent legitimacy to Buhari despite his enormous baggage and their own previous critique and rejection of him. Soyinka is a notable man of intellectual capital, who led this effort, but other notable SW intellectuals supported the effort to both punish Jonathan for, as IBK here put it, neglecting a region that brought him to power in 2011 and return to power through Buhari. The last thing to keep in mind is that the Southwest, particularly the Lagos-Ibadan axis, is the intellectual and media headquarters of Nigeria where political projects and agendas are set and either legitimated or discredited. That's why the Southwestern elite consensus, supported by political and intellectual actors, is quite powerful. Tinubu, as you know, is not just a political leader in the SW, he controls a huge swathe of the media landscape there and so is able to determine the reportorial/editorial direction, with a few minor exceptions, of the SW media. Finally, have you asked yourself why and how Jonathan, who won the SW resoundingly (he only lost Osun to Nuhu Ribadu) in 2011 lost there in 2015? Was it not the political and intellectual effort of the Southwestern political and intellectual elite led by Tinubu and Soyinka that turned it against Jonathan and in favor of Buhari? And have you asked the converse question of why Buhari, who lost the SW woefully in 2011, pulled off the win in 2015?

[Farooq A. Kperogi]

LOL! "Bayo Amos," the Tinubu-defender-in-residence, never disappoints in his predictability.😂😂😂 The only time the dude crawls of out the woodwork is when Tinubu's name is mentioned in a not too positive light here.

 After reading this essay, I braced myself for a "Bayo Amos" comeback in defense of Tinubu. When it didn't come as early as I thought it would, I was a little disappointed in my prognostic abilities. 

When I suddenly saw "Bayo Amos" and found that the only part of the essay that detained his interest is the part where Tinubu's name appeared, I laughed out so loudly that I frightened my kids. Thanks for the comic relief, "Bayo Amos"😂.

Farooq

Farooq Kperogi, PhD
Associate Professor
Journalism and Emerging Media
School of Communication & Media
Social Science Building Room 5092
402 Bartow Avenue
Kennesaw State University
Kennesaw, GA 30144
Office phone: 470-578-7735
Fax: 470-578-9153
Cell: 404-573-9697
Website: www.farooqkperogi.com
Twitter:@farooqkperogi

Sent from my 4G LTE Android device. Please forgive typos.

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

Lets take one by one Kadiri's  defense of the Buhari govt in response to Moses' description of  ethnocentric motivations that brought that  govt to power and that, to a significant degree, sustain it even today.

1. Power Dynamic of Northern Nigeria, the PDP and 2011 Elections and Aftermath

The dominant demographic of Northern Nigeria are the Fulanis and the Hausas, often Muslim. In Nigerian history, as in the 1966 crisis and the civil war, they have been supported by the Middle Belt. That alliance has been destroyed by the escalation of Fulani terrorist colonization activity in the Middle Belt, supported by the Buhari govt and Miyetti Allah, headed by Nigeria's most elite Fulani. Responding to the ethnic cleansing agst his people, 1966 counter coup and Nigerian civil war leader Theophilus Danjuma has indicted the Nigerian army and govt and taken his case to the United nations.

The anti-GEJ  thrust of the Muslim North was defined by Atiku Abubakar's threat of violent change bcs a Muslim Northerner, namely himself, was not made PDP 2011 Presidential candidate. Building on this foundation, pervasive across the Muslim North, Boko Haram Islamic terrorism re-erupted after GEJ came to power,  restricting their attacks in the first two years of the escalation to govt agents and agencies and Christians, presenting themselves as Muslim warriors fighting an infidel govt, in the process getting both overt and covert support for their mission from  a sizebale no of  Muslims    in the region, with even Bamanga Tukur, PDP chairman, the party of the President, once describing them as freedom fighters. 

Even after the tide of public opinion in the Muslim North had steadily turned agst Boko Haram on account of the scope of destruction they were wreaking, this mentality of support for the group was sustained by various Northern Muslim elite, particularly as far as 2013-2014 by Muhammadu Buhari describing the war agst Boko Haram as war agst the North and by Murtala Nyako, Adamawa governor, describing the war agst Boko Haram as anti-North genocide in a letter he circulated to all Northern governors, while the Borno elders played a self destructive game of fighting with central army command in the person of Ihejerika, a move that blunted the effectiveness of the war.

The Northern Muslim PDP base that supported GEJ in 2011 was at variance with the general mood of their region, a disconnection  widened  by the unrelenting opposition of Boko Haram later built upon by the CPC/AC alliance.  

2. AC (SW) CPC (Right Wing Muslim North) Alliance

What could have moved Tinubu and the AC, who in 2008 publicly castigated Buhari for declaring that ex-dictator, fellow Northern Muslim and his employer in his govt, Sani Abacha did not steal national monies even as portions of Abacha's unending loot were being returned to Nigeria by Switzerland and yet in 2014-2015 chose to align with Buhari's CPC and present this same figure not only as the new party's  Presidential candidate but as an anti-corruption fighter?

What moved Nobel Laureate Wole Soynka to tear up his exhaustive 'The Trouble with Buhari', the most comprehensive anti-Buhari document up till 2015 and endorse Buhari?

What led scholar and writer Pius Adesanmi to put aside his 2008 critique of Buhari for his pro-Abacha declaration and support Buhari?

What led various members of the SW intelligentsia, to which Soyinka and Adesanmi belong, to put aside their earlier critiques  of Buhari and support him in 2014-2015?

If they were motivated by the inadequacies of the GEJ govt, did they have to go along with the choice of Buhari as APC flag bearer? Why dd they align their own mission so closely with that of the politicians?

Could Chinua Achebe's final essay and book, deeply pro-Igbo, strongly critical of the West's hero Awolowo, have anything to do with this, along with the convergence of factors including jostlings for power in the PDP as key figures left to eventually form APC?

3. The Ongoing Terrorist Colonization War by  Fulani Militia/Politicians/Pressure Groups in the Middle Belt

There exist two major categories of Fulani in the Middle Belt and across Nigeria, the settled and the nomadic, cattle herding Fulani. The nomadic Fulani have been at the centre of increasing conflict with settled non-Fulani communities across Nigeria, increasingly becoming identified with terrorism, extortion and armed robbery, leading to their being described  by a Western terrorism monitoring agency as one of the world's top 4 deadliest terror groups, listing their attacks  and casualties from those attacksyear by year , these orientations climaxing in an escalation on Nigerian national ruler, the  Fulani man Muhammafu Buhar's ascension to power in 2015, an escalation demonstrated in massacres in different parts of Nigeria, occupations of property and land, such as classrooms and farms belonging to others, eventually focusing in a policy of ethnic cleansing, scattering of occupants  and occupation of lands in the Middle Belt, while the Nigerian govt not only often refuses to engage them, it works with rather than moves agst the open support of  them by Miyetti Allah, and cooks up various schemes to empower them with Nigerians' lands, cattle owners and govt working together in transferring their responsibilities to the govt and working to carve an empire  through terrorism and political manipulation, with one of Buhari's spokesmen suggesting that communities should surrender their lands to Fulani herdsmen's demands or face death.

4. Cultures of Corruption

To what degree can the Buhari govt be described as an anti-corruption govt?

What investigations have been made into corruption by its key figures, from Fashola,  to Amaechi, to Babachir to Buratai, among others?

How come that budgets presided over by Buhari  demonstrate ridiculously huge allocations to Aso Rock?

Even after the massive monies allocated to Aso Rock clinic in budgets in Buhari's tenure,  described as being much more money than allocated to  other hospitals  in the country, why is Buhari's medical tourism a prominent feature of his time in office,  leading him to be out of the country for a good no of months during his tenure?

Why are soldiers publicly complaining of being made to fight Boko Haram with inadequate weapons, even as the terrorist group seems to demonstrate tactical superiority over the Nigerian army  as some soldiers are deserting rather than face the terrorists?

Message to All : Buhari and Atiku belong to the same terrorist enabling, ethnic supremacist  mindset. Boycott elections and and begin the journey to putting  an end to a national political and economic system designed for failure.

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

Moses meant to write in his last post 'I called it an ethnic coalition of the North and SW'.

[Bayo Amos]

Take a look at 2011 presidential election results  particularly NC and SW  and one could predict APC--a coalition of ACN, CPC and ANPP which came 4th in 2011 election and a faction of APGA. Plus, the ruling PDP internal squabbles led a faction of its five governors to APC which further strengthened the alliance. 

  

Resounding victory? Jonathan won SW in 2011 but what was the margin of victory relative to Buhari's 2015 on one hand and on the other, pre- and post-ACN/CPC alliance? Coalition of weak parties into a formidable political machine led to Jonathan's defeat in 2015. No need to invent fiction as history or input ethnic coloration into it. The job was made easier by Jonathan's maladministration, mismanagement of Boko Haram insurgency, friendly disposition to corruption, and factionalization of PDP without which the alliance would be unable to win 2015 election without a  run-off. You don't need to confer celestial powers on any politician to make a point which is at variance with available data.  Why was Tinubu's so called larger than life influence or sophisticated political marketing  or was it Soyinka's considerable intellectual capital effective only in the NC and SW which, within the context of 2011 results, were already tilting towards opposition? NW/NE and SS/SE decisively and diametrically voted in opposite directions in 2011 and 2015 and it seemed the sophisticated political marketing that brainwashed much of Nigeria's electorate had little or no impact in SS/SE region which of course voted on patriotic grounds! 

Electoral choice is hardly between good and bad, but varying shades of undesirables. Eat your humble pie without the need to invent fiction as history. 

Thanks,

Bayo.

  

[Bayo Amos]

"Bayo Amos" got me laughing too. Frankly, I don't have time for your nuisance, dude.

[Ibukunolu A Babajide]

I want to thank Moses for triggering this e-mail trail and the rather trenchant exchanges it has generated.  Let us look at the facts on the ground as I see it:

1.  We have a Devil's alternative.  Atiku the thief and Buhari the incompetent.  Who do you prefer?  I will prefer the honest incompetent to the thief;

2.  I want to be independent.  That is a cop out.  If everybody was independent, society will not progress;

3.  Ethnicity has always been a factor in ALL recent political decisions in Nigeria, being a-historical is like playing the Ostrich with one's head in the sand.  It happened in 1959/60, it played out into a civil war, it happened in 1979, and June 12 and in 1999 up till now and t will play a major part in 2023 and beyond.  Blaming South West intellectuals is a hypocritical position.  since the whole of Nigeria does it why single out the South West?

4.  A vote for Sowore or any of the other candidates who can never win is a vote for Abubakar Atiku;

5.  Being an intellectual does not mean you have to waste your votes.  Use your votes wisely and ensure the vote counts; and

6.  Let us not play games.  The future of millions are at stake here as well as the security of the country.  So we all have a lot at stake and if we allow thief Atiku to take over, all the others like OBJ, IBB, and Abudusalami who looted us dry will be allowed back to steal us dry!

The choice is clear.

Sai BUHARI!  Sai BABA!!!!

Cheerrs.

IBK

_________________________

Ibukunolu Alao Babajide (IBK)

(+2348061276622) / ibk...@gmail.com

AN ENGLISH NURSERY RHYME

The law locks up the man or woman

Who steals the goose from off the common

But leaves the greater villain loose

Who steals the common from off the goose

 

The law demands that we atone

When we take things that we do not own

But leaves the lords and ladies fine

Who take things that are yours and mine

 

The poor and wretched don’t escape

If they conspire the law to break

This must be so but they endure

Those who conspire to make the law

 

The law locks up the man or woman

Who steals the goose from off the common

And geese will still a common lack

Till they go and steal it back

 -        Anonymous (circa 1764)

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

And for Mr "Bayo Amos" aka Tinubu's Defender and alter ego on USAfricadialogues, here is an excerpt from Wikileaks of what Tinubu really thinks of Buhari:

6. (C) Turning to the presidential contest, Tinubu disclosed that he does not like President Obasanjo because he contributed to the end of democracy in Nigeria during his tenure as a military president and is now benefiting from that history. That said, Tinubu admitted that he and his party, the Alliance for Democracy, must support Obasanjo. Southwest Nigeria is Yoruba land and the President is Yoruba. Tinubu"s party had no choice since it has not fielded a presidential candidate. Moreover, Obasanjo is the only candidate who stands a chance of blocking his rival, General Muhammadu Buhari, whose ethnocentrism would jeopardize Nigeria"s national unity. Buhari and his ilk are agents of destabilization who would be far worse than Obasanjo. Tinubu and many other governors are therefore implementing a strategy to re-elect Obasanjo, partly in an effort to prevent Sharia from spreading.

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/03LAGOS369_a.html?fbclid=IwAR0WgwFhPM3IqHDujHSfmcCyTCqi5Ry7_NHLdJTd3_Gzhqy6t4Ef2Dcyjrw

On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 8:01 AM Moses Ebe Ochonu <meoc...@gmail.com> wrote:

Folks,

Sonala Olumhense is a syndicated Nigerian columnist. His column appears in Daily Trust and Punch simultaneously. He was an early and enthusiastic endorser of Buhari in both 2011 and 2015. Here is what he has to say now in his current column:

“Buhari is clearly a sick man: he appeared unable to hear; or hearing, to comprehend; or comprehending, to offer decent, relevant answers. The man did not know when he took office, or often what he was doing or saying. Anyone who advocates Buhari as being capable of leading even a local government insults that council.

In my estimation, we have reached the end of this road, irrespective of what the options are. Only a suicidal zealot places prescription glasses on a blind pilot and gives him control of an aircraft of 300 people, including his own family.”

Check out the rest of his piece here: 

https://punchng.com/the-ranka-dede-republic/?fbclid=IwAR057Zlnx0XNJVpmAx3Zm1YyR_22oFRP6PMtOEPLLxfsDc6nXn7xgfROy04

[Moses Ebe Ochonu]

Folks,

Sonala Olumhense is a syndicated Nigerian columnist. His column appears in Daily Trust and Punch simultaneously. He was an early and enthusiastic endorser of Buhari in both 2011 and 2015. Here is what he has to say now in his current column:

“Buhari is clearly a sick man: he appeared unable to hear; or hearing, to comprehend; or comprehending, to offer decent, relevant answers. The man did not know when he took office, or often what he was doing or saying. Anyone who advocates Buhari as being capable of leading even a local government insults that council.

In my estimation, we have reached the end of this road, irrespective of what the options are. Only a suicidal zealot places prescription glasses on a blind pilot and gives him control of an aircraft of 300 people, including his own family.”

Check out the rest of his piece here: 

https://punchng.com/the-ranka-dede-republic/?fbclid=IwAR057Zlnx0XNJVpmAx3Zm1YyR_22oFRP6PMtOEPLLxfsDc6nXn7xgfROy04

On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 5:39 AM Bayo Amos <aae...@gmail.com> wrote:

[Salimonu Kadiri]

​When Goodluck Ebelechukwu Jonathan was elected President of Nigeria in 2011, the likes of Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju and Moses Ebe Ochonu never saw ethnic conspiracy in his election. But when Jonathan was voted out of office in 2015 after being a substantive President for six years, his defeat at the 2015 presidential elections is now being attributed to ethnic gang up against him. A major problem that is responsible for the ways Moses and Oluwatoyin reason about political and official elections/appointments in Nigeria is that they consider themselves as coming from minority ethnic groups in Nigeria while at the same time they support ethno-religious background as a merit, and not competence, for elections/appointments at the centre. They hate larger ethnic groups causing them to develop ethnic inferiority complex. On that ground, they promote impunity and mask vital wrongs committed by Jonathan during his six years tenure in office as President of Nigeria with ethnic chauvinism. The Presidency of Jonathan neither translated to prosperity for the people of South-South (including his hometown in Bayelsa State Otuoke) nor for other geo-political zones in Nigeria. He practised ethno-religious balancing by composing an amalgam of ethnic elites who shared available resources of Nigeria among themselves for the purpose of enjoying material comforts produced in USA, Europe and Asia. The Presidential elections of March 2015 was the expiry date of President Jonathan's political and economic lies which had nothing to do with his ethnic origin.

​It speaks for itself that it is highly impossible for any herdsman, whether nomadic or settled Fulani to occupy any territory with his cattle by force. Cows in particular are very sensitive to violence and forceful occupation of a land area with them makes them vulnerable targets in an eventual fight over a disputed territory. Just think of it, how many nomadic Fulani herdsmen with a flock of about 100 cows will be required to occupy and defend a land area? Even a propaganda must be believable. 

​In a presidential election where 73 candidates are contesting, you are propagating for a boycott because of two participating contestants, Atiku Abubakar and Muhammadu Buhari. In this wonderful world, there are people who believe that beheading self is a good solution to migraine without knowing that a beheaded person automatically becomes a corpse. I tremble for such idea.

​S. Kadiri

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Från: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> för Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju <toyin....@gmail.com>
Skickat: den 21 januari 2019 03:37
Till: usaafricadialogue
Ämne: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology

 

[Oluwatoyin Vincent Adepoju]

The zones occupied by Fulani herdsmen are well known.

Go to Google.

If  trying to debunk online information on that, existing in various platforms, corroborated by various news agencies,  the usual tactic, make clear why you think the information is false.

Also dont ask me to do the research for you. I have done that already, in my essay posted on this group, on the open support for terrorism by various Fulani interest groups.

toyin

[Salimonu Kadiri]

​Politics is not a linear equation depicted with a formula : 

​(Politics) P = (Constant) C x (Action) A, and whereby it can be derived that politics divided by action shall always be constant (P/A=C). One should be very sceptical to believe without question the diplomatic and confidential report that credited certain utterances to Tinubu, especially when Tinubu himself has never been afforded to attest to the statements credited to him in the said diplomatic and confidential report as being correct. The Wikileaks US diplomatic and confidential reports of what Tinubu was purported to have said might have been compiled by the author of the report from publications in the Nigerian newspapers of that time without necessarily emanating direct from Tinubu. Take for instance that the author of the secret diplomatic report on Tinubu disclosed that, "he does not like President Obasanjo because he contributed to the end of democracy in Nigeria during his tenure as a military president and is now benefitting from that history." The Secret report was dated 21 February 2003. Obasanjo was never 'a military president' but a military Head of State which he inherited from Murtala Ramat Mohammed after the tragic events of 13 February 1976. Obasanjo handed over power to a democratically elected government, led by the late President Shehu Shagari in 1979. Tinubu could not, under any circumstance, have referred to Obasanjo as 'military president' because he was never. That important aspect of the report is fake.

​In order to solve the political equations of 2003, one needs to go back not only to the 1999 Presidential elections but, the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential elections won by M.K.O. Abiola. Olusegun Obasanjo was a civilian and a retired General when the military President, Ibrahim Babangida annulled the civilian Presidential election of 1993. However, Obasanjo supported the annulment of the election by claiming in a statement that the winner of the annulled election, Abiola was not the Messaih Nigerians have been waiting for. General Sani Abacha subsequently took over and jailed Obasanjo for plotting to overthrow him. When Abacha suddenly died on 8 June 1998, his successor released Obasanjo after Abiola had died in prison in a mysterious circumstance. In the eventual Presidential elections of 1999, the power brokers in the North that dominated both the PDP and APP decided to appease the Southwest for Abiola's death by zoning the Presidential candidates to the South and with specific interest for the Southwest. The APP picked Olu Falae as their Presidential candidate while PDP picked Olusegun Obasanjo, both candidates were Yoruba. Alliance for Democracy did not field a presidential candidate but adopted Olu Falae of the APP as theirs. Although AD/APP did not win the Presidential elections, AD won all the elections in the Southwest States with Obasanjo losing even in his home ward. Despite the fact that the whole of Southwest voted against Obasanjo, he won the Presidential elections. The Yoruba had seen in Obasanjo a hyena in person who is used to seizing the spoil after cheetah has killed the heifer. The Yoruba remembered very well that Benjamin Adekunle finished the Biafran war but Obasanjo ambushed him to seize the glory; Theophilous Yakubu Danjuma subdued Dimka's coup but Obasanjo emerged from his hiding to succeed his assassinated boss; and Obasanjo betrayed Abiola to capture the electoral mandate Nigerians had given to him. That was why he failed to get Yoruba votes, including his home ward in 1999.

​After the inauguration of Obasanjo as President, he pleaded with the AD leaders to work with him for a better Nigeria in an all inclusive government. AD leaders were divided on the invitation but a majority part of it, excluding Bola Ahmed Tinubu and some others who did not trust Obasanjo, excused themselves by saying that no matter how bad ones own child is one should not offer it to the leopard to be eaten up. Since majority decision was binding on all members, AD agreed to work with Obasanjo. Bola Ige of the AD joined Obasanjo's government, first as Minister of power and later as Attorney General and Minister of Justice. When the 2003 Presidential elections was approaching, Bola Ige gave a notice of his intention to resign from his post to prepare AD for the election. Although the state security personnel attached to him as a Minister was not yet withdrawn, the day Bola Ige was murdered in his bedroom, all the security men attached to him went on break at the same time. When the elections eventually took place, Obasanjo had perfected means of capturing all States in the West regardless of how people voted. It was only in Lagos where Tinubu was the Governor that his plan failed. AD was decimated and Tinubu formed a new party, AC. So while it was true that AD had wanted to vote for Obasanjo after his plea to them that he had been disgraced enough in 1999 that decision did not aim att blocking Muhammadu Buhari. Tinubu in particular was against any collaboration with Obasanjo. Concerning Sharia law, it was adopted only in twelve out of the nineteen states in the North and the danger of spreading Southwards was minimal. Besides, if Obasanjo could not stop Sharia laws from being adopted in twelve states of the North, what magic power was envisaged that he would deploy to prevent its spread to the West, which was the main reason adduced for willing to vote for him? Even if it were true that Tinubu was politically opposed to Buhari in 2003, should Tinubu still oppose him in 2015 if he was convinced that Buhari's political orientations had changed and similar to his? Politics is not a linear equation with constant actions which is why ideas can be abandoned and changed; and alliance can be formed and disbanded. If not, Joseph Tarka would not have abandoned Awolowo's UPN to join NPN in 1979; Chinua Achebe would not have abandoned Azikiwe's NPP to join PRP; and Ojukwu would not have despised Azikiwe's NPP to join NPN. If President Goodluck Jonathan could posthumously awarded national honour to General Sanni Abacha in 2013, why should Buhari be blamed for stating that Abacha was not a thief in 2008? If Buhari as a President is now involved in repatriating Abacha's looted funds from the US, should that not tell us that he has withdrawn his 2008 statement that Abacha never stole any money?  

Before 19 April 2003 Presidential elections, it is noteworthy that Tinubu was not the leader of AD but AD governor of Lagos State. APP that the AD allied with in the presidential election of 27 February 1999 had been reorganised and renamed All Nigerians People's Party (ANPP) with new leaderships that picked Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate for the 19 April 2003 election and Ume Ezeoke as his running mate. Since the chance of AD to field a candidate that could win the  Presidential election was minimal, ethnic consideration was not needed to decide voting for Obasanjo/Atiku presidential ticket as well as Buhari/Ezeoke. The statements attributed to Tinubu by the author of the 21 February 2003 US secret report disclosed by Wikileaks, could at best be  considered as the author's personal political speculation. A comparison between the presidential elections results of 1999 and 2003 will dispel ethnic motive behind the AD support for Obasanjo. The results show that Obasanjo polled 62.78% of the total votes cast in 1999 when AD voted against him while it was 61.94% in 2003 when AD decided to adopt him as their presidential candidate. A decrease of 0.84% from total votes cast in 2003 in support of Obasanjo's presidential victory negated the effect of AD votes for him in the West. After his victory in 2003, Obasanjo battled Tinubu by seizing revenue allocations for the local governments in Lagos State. Even when the Supreme Court declared Obasanjo's action illegal and unconstitutional, he ignored the decision of the Court. It was Yar'Ardua presidency that paid the accumulated local government revenue allocation to Fashola's led Lagos State government in 2007.

​Election year in Nigeria is a period of politics of mudslinging, untrue and unfair attacks on political opponents. Those who the psychiatrists or psychologists would call schizotypal persons and described as people who believe in, and see, things normal people do not, now have harvest days. Schizotypal persons now clothe themselves in the garments of medical doctors diagnosing Buhari as infected with all kinds of diseases that make it impossible for him to seek re-election for another four years. The Yoruba people say, ÌWÒ TI A NWÓ ÀPÁRÒ, BI K'ÁFI DÁ ILÁ, roughly translated to: the way we look at the partridge is with the hope of making okra soup with it. The noisy weaver birds that build temporary nets are demeaning the termites that build long-lasting hills. Well, I will summarize the whole spectacle with George Orwell : In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

S. Kadiri    

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Från: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> för Moses Ebe Ochonu <meoc...@gmail.com>

Skickat: den 21 januari 2019 15:10
Till: USAAfricaDialogue
Ämne: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Ethnic Victory of 2015 and an Apology