Fw: Prof.'s column

[Ayo Olukotun]

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Out of Season Political Competition for 2023 Election

AYO OLUKOTUN

“Barriers to political equality, such as our seemingly entrenched though informal rule for zoning candidates according to regions of origin, need to be deemphasised and ultimately abandoned”.

Mallam Nasir El-Rufai The Punch, Saturday, August 10, 2019.

 

“Our strategy is that if the APC comes to the South, we will remain in the North in 2023 (by fielding Atiku Abubakar again)”

People’s Democratic Party Elder, quoted in The Nation, Tuesday, August 13, 2019.

 

Like it or not, Nigerian politicians have surreptitiously, and with increasing audacity flagged off the 2023 presidential campaign, and shadow jostling, as the quotes in the opening paragraph bear witness. Mallam El Rufai, governor of Kaduna state, presumably a presidential aspirant in the 2023 elections, it was, who fired the early warning shots, when in a prologue he wrote to a book launched recently called for a revision of the zoning system, whereby the presidency rotates between North and South. Translation; Once the All Progressive Congress, El Rufai’s party, jettisons the current zoning arrangement, a major obstacle to his presidential ambition would have been taken down. Predictably, El-Rufai’s proposition ran into a storm of opposition, with several commentators commenting on its self-centred and self-serving nature.

Nonetheless, it will be naïve to think that the last has been heard of the political kite flown by the governor. The PDP, on its own part, has been speaking and strategizing equally about 2023, projecting a strategy of keeping the presidency in the north by fielding Atiku, once more, in order to give the APC a good run for its money. Activities and head start, in respect of the election, which is four years away are not confined to parties and individuals. On Wednesday, a body which advertised itself as the Coalition of Northern Groups accused APC National Leader, Chief Bola Tinubu of hypocrisy and double standard. Their opposition, is in the context of Tinubu’s alleged ambition to be a presidential contestant in the 2023 elections. Strangely, the coalition called out Tinubu for what they described as “conspiratorial silence when Wole Soyinka, Falana and other rabble-rousers on his payroll openly supported and backed (Sowore) the master mind in the overthrow attempt” New Telegraph, Wednesday August 14, 2019.

Leaving aside the abusive nature of the statement, not to talk of its illogicality of expecting Tinubu to become an attack dog for President Muhammadu Buhari to qualify as a presidential aspirant, what this columnist finds disconcerting is the revving up of political goings-on regarding the 2023 presidential election. When, in 1980, American journalist, writer and politician, Sidney Blumenthal published his book entitled ‘The Permanent Campaign’, he had in mind the blurring of politics and governance, and the way in which politicians, in particular the presidency majored in all round season campaign by, for example, allocating strategically, federal funding to swing states. He also illuminated the rise of marketers, public relations professionals and pollsters in American politics.

In the 1990s, a book in the same connection was published by British Political Scientist, Anthony King, entitled ‘Why American Politicians Campaign too much and govern too little’. Neither Blumenthal nor King could have foreseen the strange electoral cycle which Nigerian politicians are now contemplating, in which campaigns and shenanigans for elections begin four years ahead of time. Mark you, Buhari has not even constituted or sworn in a cabinet to assist him in delivering governance goodies to the people of Nigeria; nor have the governors, the majority of them, even named their commissioners. Yet we see at work the battling temerity of the political class, scheming to outdo their perceived opponents in the 2023 presidential elections. What this presupposes, if care is not taken, is that emphasis will be shifted almost totally to an election that is almost 4years away, leaving matters of governance in the lurch.

The permanent campaign of the American polity left room for governance, allowing the electorate to base their decisions and indecisions on the performance or lack of performance of politicians voted into office. The Nigerian version of this phenomenon threatens to abolish governance and to substitute it by campaigns and electoralism, which begin as soon as one election season is over. In the case of El-Rufai, for example, Kaduna state will be better served if he devotes determined effort to fulfilling his campaign pledges, which include raising human capital especially education, health and social safety nets, as well as the renewal of Kaduna, one of the best planned and lovely cities in the country, slowly overtaken by ghettoes and unplanned growth. It is not just that, the city is becoming strife torn, with the kidnapping and assassination of pastors such as Elisha Numan, a Baptist cleric, who was kidnapped on Wednesday and Rev. Jeremiah Omolara of the Living Faith Church who was assassinated last week. That is a way of saying that the governor’s plate is already full, and the people of his state and others, will be grateful to him if he will spend time justifying his electoral mandate.

Indeed, a bottom up approach to electoral credibility and national leadership is for sourcing of presidential aspirants to be based on how well politicians perform at the subnational levels of government. In an earlier phase of Nigerian history, national leadership was based upon subnational performance and how well politicians served their people at the lower levels. Indeed, in the case of Sir Ahmadu Bello, premier of the Northern Region, his passion to build his region into a formidable political and economic space took precedence over the desire to be the country’s prime minister. Awolowo owes his abiding reputation as a governance exemplar to the remarkable years he spent as premier of the Western Region. Similarly, Nnamdi Azikiwe cut his political milk teeth in the politics of Eastern Nigeria before becoming a national leader of note. Of course, the regions of those years were far more powerful than the unviable mini states that dot the country’s land scape today. The point at issue however, is that it constitutes a desertion of the social contract, when political office holders abandon their assignments in governance by beginning political jostling for positions, when the elections are still four years away.

Part of the problem is that the electorate, after they have voted, do not hold leaders to standards of accountability or to civic templates that will ensure that they perform their duties. Hence, our politicians tend to abandon the unsexy purview of governance to major in electioneering, as soon as election is over. This is one reason why, as this columnist lamented last week, election after election, there is no change in the lives of those who are called to vote every four years. So, we are fast building a culture of democracy without the demos (the people), given that the people are not really needed, except to legitimate the ambition of politicians, in our own version of shallow semi democracy. It is desirable, for the Independent National Electoral Commission, as well as the National Assembly to take a hard look at this negative syndrome, with a view to coming out with legislation which will confine campaigns in whatever guise to stipulated periods of the electoral cycle.

Finally, Civil Society as watchdogs should develop instruments, to rein in the subversion of democracy, occurring through a bizarre version of the permanent campaign.

 

 

Prof. Ayo Olukotun is the Oba (Dr.) Sikiru Adetona Professorial Chair of Governance, at the Department of Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye.

 

[Ayo Olukotun]

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APPRAISING RECENT GAINS IN BUHARI’S ANTICORRUPTION POLICY

AYO OLUKOTUN

Beyond building monuments that will outlive us all, or impressive, proposed policy departures such as lifting 100million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years, President Muhammadu Buhari’s place in Nigerian history will, in all likelihood, be determined by his signature tune policy of anticorruption. It is for this reason, that this columnist has repeatedly devoted space and time to that topic, not with a view to laughing it out of court, or score political points, but in the reformist mindset of seeing it work better. For, no reform of the public sector, on the scale of the anticorruption policy can succeed, if it fails to secure buy-in of civil society, which ultimately are the trustees and guardian spirit of the democratic assumption.

It is a delight, therefore, to notice that in the last one month, there have been attempts by the anticorruption agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, to spread the dragnet to include several distinguished members of Buhari’s party, namely the All Progressive Congress. First to be dismissed, is a former Executive Secretary of the National Health Insurance Scheme, Prof. Usman Yusuf, who was replaced by Prof. Muhammed Sambo. Usman’s case had gestated, for several months, following recommendations for his dismissal by a panel set up by the Secretary to the Government of the Federation. One could of course argue, that the measure came late, but that it came at all, in what appears to be a reset of the anticorruption program is also noticeable. Then, there was the suspension of the Chairman of the Special Investigation Panel on the Recovery of Public Property, Okoi Obono-Obla, and his consequent arraignment before the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission. In the twilight of Buhari’s term, Obla had been accused of having issues with his School Certificate, and subsequently, financial improprieties. He now stands a chance of facing criminal prosecution. Of course, I am aware that an alternative, more decent scenario would have been for appointees of the president to throw in the towel, soon after the scandals became public property. Truth, however, is that we have not yet built such a culture, and it is getting more demanding to do so because public offices are intimately linked to the accumulation of wealth, and for the middle and professional classes, escape from the abjection of low salaries and poverty.

Consequently, we do not have many cases in our political culture, where holders of public office have voluntarily resigned, even in the face of the heat and fire of public accusation, except through presidential action. Apart from the cases cited above, there was the recent seizure of multi-billion naira properties, traced to former Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha, by the EFCC. Similarly, only a few days ago, the antigraft institution, carried out searches of the Epe and Parkview, Ikoyi homes of Former Lagos State Governor, Mr Akinwumi Ambode, in what was explained as part of an on-going investigation into the diversion of N9.9bn belonging to Lagos State Government.

True, there is nothing exceptional, in ordinary circumstances, about the agency investigating or searching the homes, even seizing the property of serving or former officials of government. Given the well-known, and well criticised fact, however, that this was not the pattern of the anti-corruption fight, in the preceding four years of Buhari’s administration, it is important to remark that there seems to be a scaling up of the anti-corruption struggle, especially as it is now affecting influential members of the ruling APC. This point is made, against the background of the skewed playing field in which the policy was prosecuted during the president’s first term, with 95% of targets being high profile members of the Peoples’ Democratic Party. Even though that is partly related to the fact that the opposition party was most recently the ruling party, the impression was created, that only the political opponents of the administration were being brought to justice, and that those in the ruling party were automatically exempted by virtue of their membership in that party. Indeed, in the heat of the campaign leading to the last presidential election, Chairman of the All Progressive Congress, Comrade Adams Oshiomole, extended the hand of fellowship to members of the opposition party, that all they needed to do to get their ‘sins forgiven’ was to join the APC.   In other words, not only was the struggle lopsided, the lop-sidedness was becoming policy. It was not that alone, each time a serving official was accused of corruption, the official was either hastily ‘cleared’ by the administration or attempts were made to project the appointee as a victim of persecution or media trial. This mind-set did not prevail among the politicians alone, but extended even to the technocrats. As a former Minister for Finance, Mrs Kemi Adeosun faced mounting, criticism, concerning a forged National Youth Service Corps exemption certificate, Chairman of the Presidential Advisory Committee Against Corruption, a respected legal luminary and scholar, Prof. Itse Sagay, trivialised the allegations by going on record as saying that what mattered was the good work Adeosun was doing for the administration.

As time went on, and as this columnist had the occasion to observe, government itself became a reluctant anti-corruption crusader, with several cases of corruption being championed by either the Senate or civil society activists. These were the cases in respect of former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachar Lawal, and former Director General of the National Intelligence Agency, Ayo Oke, among others. The upshot of this double dealing and backsliding, was that a sizeable portion of the enlightened public came to regard the anticorruption struggle either as a joke or a political decoy to decimate the opposition.

It was at this point, that in one of my essays on this very page, I drew attention to the ‘corruption of anti-corruption’.  What appears to be happening now, however, is in my view a new game, even if still in its early stages, in which the Buhari administration has silently commenced an in-house cleansing. If this new trend continues, and the anti-graft agency does its work, irrespective of political affiliations, then the much-anticipated influential status of the policy would have begun. O yes, there are still contradictions, for example, ministers who were appointed recently on political grounds, not minding that they had cases to answer with the EFCC; nonetheless, there is evidence of a fresh departure which it will be partisan and unhelpful to overlook. The Yorubas have a saying that, when you encourage somebody, who has done well, even in a little way, he is motivated to exert himself in greater ways. So, the logic of this commendation and appraisal, is to drive the raising of the bar of the anticorruption policy, so that it can matter more and be more impactful, than we have hitherto witnessed. In all of these our goal should be to reach a nonpartisan momentum in which the reformed institution takes the initiative, without turning a blind eye, in respect of transgression of those in the ruling party.

Finally, it is recommended that in cases of agencies and personalities that are above bar, and perform creditably, such as the Joint Admission Matriculation Board, they should be held up for mention, to inspire emulation and virtuous governance style.

[Anthony Akinola]

Hopefully, the fight against corruption will , from henceforth, achieve great results for posterity. Buhari might have been methodical during his first term in office.

A wise politician would not want to be seen to be fighting those he or she needed to achieve some gains in electoral politics. Now that Buhari does not have to 

fight a future election, his place in history should be uppermost in his heart. A great political leader does not have to be an all-rounder. It is enough that he or she has 

achieved  a success that  arouses the consciousness of history. Corruption is one reason why Nigeria is at the bottom of the global league table. If Buhari, according to

Prof. Olukotun, is now taking the right steps in the fight against this deadly scourge, we should all encourage him.

Regards,

Anthony Akinola.

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[Ayo Olukotun]

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Hypercritical Disposition of Nigerians? Is Andrew Young Right?

AYO OLUKOTUN

“You (Nigerians) always complain about every government you’ve had. I have never heard of a good government in Nigeria; something is wrong with everybody. Well, let’s face the fact, the world had not been and will never be perfect”.

American civil rights activist, diplomat and politician, Andrew Young, The Punch August 24,2019.

 

Prominent black American politician, Andrew Young, quoted in the opening paragraph, has raised the issue of whether Nigerian civil society is hypercritical of successive leaders. He buttressed his verdict with the claim that he has never heard Nigerians commending or praising any of their leaders, but rather indulge in blaming them for the citizen’s woes. Young went on to say and, in my view, correctly that we live in an imperfect world, especially as political leadership is concerned. If we begin the discussion by dwelling on the latter part of the statement, then we will be making an example of Young’s home country, the United States, where the current President, Donald Trump, is viewed within and outside the country as America’s headache or albatross. His never ending acerbic, racist, often unbalanced twitter comments, are cases in point, not to mention his theory of citizenship, stated or implied, that white America is all that really counts. A sampler, Trump called Baltimore, with its huge black population ‘a rat and rodent infested mess, the worst in the United States’, causing an uproar, in which the President has been described as a serial abuser of Americans, especially the minorities. That is how low, political leadership has descended in God’s Own Country. If you imaginatively cross the Atlantic, you encounter a hard liner of a Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, who climbed down recently to the authoritarian expedient of suspending parliament, so that it will not have a chance to interrupt or rearrange the Prime Minister’s position as the Brexit deadline approaches. If this is not evidence of the regression of democracy in the flagship warehouse of its existence, then I don’t know what it is.

A succession of unglamorous Prime Ministers has brought that lovely Island country close to the brink, and to a future with several question marks. Just across the Channel, we see Emmanuel Macron, positioning himself as the new European leader, sometimes as the leader of the free world, in view of Trump’s own-goals and self-cancellation. But everyone knows that for all the illusion of grandeur abroad, home, to use a favourite expression, is where the hurt is. Protracted civil rights disobedience and street demonstrations by the yellow vests, over Macron’s economic reforms severely damaged the President’s credentials, with consequent plummeting of his approval rating. Italy is in disarray while xenophobic nationalism, with the ascent of right-wing parties, remains a problem on the European continent, and beyond.

So, to connect back with Young, imperfections in the political arena are not peculiarly Nigerian, but global occurrences. Nonetheless, it is important to stress that those countries which have, over time built social safety nets for their citizens have reliable infrastructure, and where poverty does not exist in desperate proportions, are luckier. Nigeria, like most African countries is in distress, in terms of antecedent substructures and social buffers which can cushion adversity. As Prof. Niyi Akinnaso, made clear recently, the generalised discontent and unease, that one finds around in our country owe its origins to ‘the poor state of the economy, typified by ravaging poverty and a high youth unemployment rate—Nigeria has lived with the badge of dishonour of being the poverty capital of the world for some time now’.(The Nation Wednesday, August 28, 2019).

In other words, and in the context of the perennial disgruntlement fingered by Young, the raw, upbeat mood is a function of the perceived failure of successive governments, to turn the tide in favour of Nigerian citizens, notwithstanding that a small percentage of the population continues to call the shots. For example, how do you expect parents whose children cannot go to school, either because they cannot come up with the funds needed, or because the schools have descended to poorly furnished playgrounds, to congratulate politicians who display obscene affluence? Young, therefore, should have put his observation in the context of the pervasive poverty in Nigeria, soaring unemployment, and sundry governance woes which afflict the larger percentage of the population.

Even at that, and in spite of the subsisting substratum, of hardship, side by side with a galloping population, Nigerians are easy to rule, not least because the standard of governance has fallen so low, that merely tarring an unkempt road, or building boreholes, where none exist, or paying salary, as at when due, easily attract mention. Indeed, in the period since 1999, all governments have enjoyed a period of political honeymoon, in which they are more or less adulated, or welcome with open hands until they did things, which landed them in trouble with Nigerians. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, began his presidency with a lot of goodwill and hoopla, carried forward by his own rhetorical grandeur of making a fresh start, which persisted for a good deal of his tenure. He began to have trouble however, when he repeatedly increased the price of petroleum, without considering the human face, which he had himself advocated as a civil society activist. There were also his failures to match words with action, and seminally the aborted third term project. Still, his approval rating, roughly measured by newspaper editorial comments, did not decline dramatically until the ill-fated third term protect. As this columnist recalls it, the late president Umaru Yar’adua, was much beloved, not just for the innovation of the Niger Delta Amnesty, but for his frankness in admitting that the election that brought him to power was massively rigged, thereby setting up the much regarded. Mohammed Uwais Election Reform Committee, which came up with interesting answers. Even President Goodluck Jonathan, who was later to be derided for his ‘cluelessness’ and corruption, began his tenure auspiciously, benefiting from his status as the country’s first minority president, and the sympathy which accrued to him, because of attempts to deny him of the presidency by subtle methods. The parting of ways between him and Civil Society, no doubt fuelled by his political opponents, occurred when he dramatically increased the price of petroleum products, necessitating an Occupy Nigeria Protest Movement, which dovetailed into a nationwide debate on the abuse of fuel subsidy, growing official corruption, and widening class inequalities.

President Muhammadu Buhari, also began his tenure with tremendous goodwill, and identity of being the first opposition leader to displace an incumbent in our history. The goodwill was enhanced by the buy in of many Nigerians into his anti-corruption programme. The draw backs under his tenure so far, include rising insecurity, and a tardiness in paying adequate attention to the inclusive requirements of Nigerian federalism. Overall therefore, Young is wrong in his remarks on the hypercritical nature of Nigerians, with respect to their leaders, especially when you factor how much Nigerians have had to endure under successive administrations.

I have often argued against Nigerian exceptionalism, which portrays our country, as being different from other parts of the world. Finally, the distemper in civil society is often creative and rewarding, and in the absence of effective institutions, our best buffer against dictatorship.

 

Prof. Ayo Olukotun is the Oba (Dr.) Sikiru Adetona Chair of Governance, at the Department of Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye.

 

[Ayo Olukotun]

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Subject: Re: Fw: Prof.'s column

Thank you for the citation and your timely rebuttal of Young's hypercritical thesis, well situated within a global context.

Young may have overstated his case but there is a sense in which he is right. To be honest, there is too much negative reporting and critical commentary on politicians and government programmes in our papers and on social media platforms. 

Besides, just take any opinion expressed in our columns and you'll see that the default stance is negative of government, so negative that the few steps the government (fed or state) takes in the right direction slides by unacknowledged.

Any outsider like Young, whose views about Nigeria are molded largely by the press, cannot but agree with him to a reasonable extent. 

Nevertheless, you have done a beautiful job of illustrating the proverbial adage about the man trying to condemn the mote in another person's eyes, overlooking the one in his.

Niyi Akinnaso

[Michael Afolayan]

Beautifully written, Professor Olukotun.Thanks for the thoughtful analysis.

Paradoxically, I currently write from the beautiful City of Andrew Young, Atlanta, a community that benefitted in no small way from Andrew Young's mayoral governance in the 1980s, shaking my head wearily and dejectedly agape. To confess, I read your article with trepidation, fearing an agreement on your part with Andrew Young's erroneous assertion and fallacious stance. I thought it would be an insult to the injury of a bleeding people; but thanks for putting my mind at rest. First of all, Mr. Young should know that not all Nigerians complain about "every government (they've) had." I wish all Nigerians do; maybe our situation would be better today than it has always been. Oh yes, Nigerians should complain more. Sadly, only a handful does. Mr. Young needs ask those who have left this nation high and dry or those who are duping and draining it silly right now, and he would know that there exists a critical mass, some well positioned individuals who actually love the government of Nigeria as it has always been, and thrive on its backward trajectories because it is in such social conditions they benefit. 

Secondly, and no pun intended, should we say Mr. Young is too young to know that in the almost six decades of Nigerian existence as a sovereign nation, it has not benefitted from true leadership, I mean leadership with a deliverable vision? How them is it possible for people - just some people, not to complain about every government? If every government of Nigeria brought (or are bringing or will be bringing) to Nigerians the kind of opulence and splendor that Young brought to the inhabitants of the City of Atlanta in the eight years of his mayoral leadership, Nigerians will not complain. We are not complainers in Nigeria; if anything we are docile receptors of the dosage of inhumanity historically doled out and piled on us by our governments, what the legendary Fela Anikulapo-Kuti characterized as a people "suffering and smiling," and Osundare poetically portrayed as "waiting laughter!"

I'm on my knees praying for the success of the current Buhari administration, leading us into a new dispensation. I hope this happens and never again would I complain. 

Again, thanks a bunch, Prof. Olukotun.

Michael O. Afoláyan

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