RE: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Ethnic federalism

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OLAYINKA AGBETUYI

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Nov 27, 2020, 1:49:53 PM11/27/20

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Oga Ibrahim.

Much as I find the trajectory of ethnic federalism portrayed in this article quite informative I disagree with the thesis that ethnic federalism is the problem and identify the thesis as a neo- Marxian articulation. Conscientious ethnic federalism is on the contrary -the solution.

It is neo- Marxian because it imagines a de- ethnisized pristine polity lately muddied by ethnic considerations.

Since we left the hunter gatherer stage ethnic differentiations is all we got as human settlements scattered on the face of the earth.

On the contrary de- ethnicized formulations are the johnny lately come of human organisations. Ethnic particularity accretions subsist because ways of life assumed cultural differentiations the further apart human communities are from each other. These are the cultural capitals of each communities and this is why communities insist on them and rely on each political formation allow them transform these into actual transactional capital.

Ethnic federalisms run into trouble because some actors as you pointed out only pay lip service to ethnic federalism while surreptitiously undermining the concept by imposing the cultural priorities of their own ( and kindred) cultures on others.

You rightly pointed out how in the 2nd Republic in Nigeria only bills sponsored by the executive were passed into law while private sponsored bills were not until the 4th Republic. You correctly identified the fact that the Executive was allowed to lord it over the main engine of federal democracies: the Legislature. This was why the Presidency in the Second Republic was portrayed in Yorùbá as Ààrę apàşę wàá ( absolute monarch) a position that is odious to the Yorùbá Constitutional Monarchy with its palpable checks and balances to curb the powers of the monarch.

It was this perceived ability of the Executive to lord it over the Legislature that made federal democracies in Africa to unravel in titanic electoral battle royales to capture the executive post as prelude to capture the centre ground of national politics.

To follow your own logic then I expected you to highlight what is to be done to counteract this executive domination. It is clear that once an executive from one ethnicity prioritise his own ethnic goals as national goals the stage is already set for rival ethnicity to fight to the finish to put their own man at the centre to reverse the previous prioritisation and put theirs in place instead.

I have for more than twenty years canvassed that the only way to a stable politics in Nigeria is to make the structure of the executive plateaued rather than pyramidal so that you have a geographic presidential council that operates on consensual prioritisation of national objectives and thus lead Africa and indeed the world to a better way and more enduring system of engaging in national politics. It means politics must be done differently from the level of writing manifestoes to delivering them to the different ethnic peoples constituting the modern nation. Edwin Madunagu dealt in part with what is involved un drafting such peoples manisfesto(es)

This way we will not continue to have two steps forward and four steos back in a bid for leaders to undo the achievements of predecessors as happened in the case of Obama and Trump with respect to Obamacare. That is just one aspect of a plethora of programmes done and undone in more ethnisized polities across Africa.

The Soviet Union's collapse has demonstrated that you cannot decree people's cultural and ethnic differences away. You have to deal with it. This is what makes us thrive.

While we have been busy debating the issues involved the United Kingdom has seized the bull by the horn gone past debates to establish a tetrarchy of geographic ethnicities in lieu of the centralisation of powers that existed over a millennium since the Magna Carta. Ironically it is the UK ' Union' that is now practising federalism before avowed federalists in Africa such as Nigeria. This is the way forward for Nigeria, Africa and indeed the rest of the world.

OAA

Mr President you took an oath to rule according to the Constitution.

Where are the schools to promote the teaching of the coyntry's lingua francas?

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy smartphone.

-------- Original message --------

From: Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinib...@gmail.com>

Date: 27/11/2020 15:13 (GMT+00:00)

To: 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Ethnic federalism

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The Challenge of Ethnic Federalism

Jibrin Ibrahim, Friday Column, Daily Trust, 27^th November 2020

In 2003, I wrote an essay drawing lessons for Africa from the collapse of ethnic federalism in Yugoslavia and other parts of the former Soviet Bloc. The main lesson was simple, Comrade Stalin had imposed a federal structure based on ethnic federalism and in history such federations last only as long as the “strongest” ethnic component can oppress the others. Ethnic federations by definition focus on ethno-linguistic differences alone and are usually held together by a hegemonic group that is able to lord it over the others. The hegemonic hold is difficult to sustain as differences, not similarities, become the sole object of focus and concern until the system cracks at the seams.

This is what we are witnessing in Ethiopia today as their ethnic federation unravels. The system was established in 1991 following a 17-year old armed struggle against the Derg military dictatorship led by Mengistu Haile Mariam. The winner of the war was the astute military commander, Meles Zenawi, up to then, leader of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the national coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF). The ethnic federalism he established from 1994 was designed to contain the power of the Amhara ethnic group and place his own ethnic group in control through the 1994 Federal Constitution which divided Ethiopia along ethnic lines into nine ethnic federating States and two multi-ethnic "chartered administrations" – Addis Ababa and Diredawa. As events unfold in the country, it is difficult to see how the federal system would endure as various groups seize the opportunity to fight their battles.

Currently, there is no genuine, (I know this term is a Nigerian invention in the glossary of federal concepts), federalism in the African continent. The independence attempts all failed. The promise of the Mali Federation between Senegal and current Mali lasted only from 1959 to 1960. Cameroon lasted between 1961 to 1972 when the autocracy broke the independence promise made to the Anglophones. The carefully crafted Libyan Federation lasted between 1951 and 1963 and the fault lines it sought to address at that time are exactly the lines of armed conflict today. The original Ethiopian Federation lasted between 1952 and 1962 with the annexation of Eretria, a problem that led to a long civil war and secession, with Eritrea currently heavily engaged in the current battle against Tigray. Finally, the Ugandan Federation established in 1961 was dismantled in 1966 opening the path to civil war and the emergence of dictator Museveni. It is easy to dismantle the federations but not the problems that led to their establishment.

Africa is the continent with the greatest need for federal systems and yet it is the place that is the fastest in dismantling its federations. The reason is simple. Federalism works only if the system is truly democratic and all contests are resolved through the process of constitutionalism. Africa’s dictators and tin gods have therefore shown absolutely no tolerance for federalism. The people on the other hand have in many African countries struggled for federalism and have often moved on to secessionist demands when they have found the path to “genuine” federalism blocked.

Nigeria is the last African country standing for federalism, at least at the level of rhetoric. Even successive Nigerian military regimes consistently affirmed their commitment to federalism in spite of the reality that military authoritarianism is antithetical to federalism. This is because from the very beginning, Nigeria developed a consensus that its future can only be good if it is federal and democratic. Shortly after amalgamation in 1914, dialogue started on political futures leading to the introduction of the Clifford constitution in 1922 with provisions for the establishment of a legislative council for the protectorate of southern Nigeria as well as the introduction of elective position for the colonised. It was only after the Second World War that real dialogue started leading to the Macpherson’s Constitution of 1951 after consultations from the villages, districts, provincial, regional levels, finally crystalizing in the January 1950 constitutional conference at the national level. Other pre-independence national conferences were the 1953 and 1954 constitutional conferences which gave birth to the Lyttleton’s Constitution of 1954, which firmly adopted Federalism as a structure of the country. This 1954 consensus on federalism has never been seriously questioned except during the Ironsi regime when the centralisation decree was enacted. Following the coup that brought General Gowon to power, the Aburi Accord turned full circle to a confederal solution which Gowon subsequently renounced leading to the civil war.

Debating Nigeria’s federalism became very intense following the annulment of the June 12, 1992 General Elections. Some groups made strong representations for a: “Conference of Ethnic Nationalities” as constituents to restructure Nigerian federalism along ethnic lines. The group - Pro-National Political Reform Conference (PRONACO), under the leadership of Anthony Enaharo proposed what they called a “the People’s Constitution” to transform Nigeria into an ethnic federation. As I have always said, ethnic federalism is the fastest way to completely dismantle our country which is why I oppose it.

The current federal arrangement was bequeathed by the military. Under their tutelage, the four previous regions were transformed into twelve, seventeen, nineteen, thirty and currently thirty-six states. The more States you have, the weaker each one is. The three regions in the First Republic were economically and financially independent. They generated roughly 50% of their revenue and shared the collective revenues of the federation equally on a fifty-fifty basis with the federal government. But the rise in oil revenue and consistent centralization of power has seen a reversal in fiscal arrangements: centrally collected oil revenue now provides over 80% of all public revenue and 90% of export revenues. The problem is that in Nigeria, the states are not required to function as self-sufficient units. They are resourced and maintained through the distributive actions of the Federal Government. This element of Nigeria’s fiscal federalism accounts for the political culture of centralisation in the country. It is not surprising that states bred in the culture of dependency are unable to generate their own tax base as petroleum rent is the main motor of governance. Fiscal centralization has meant that the federal centre exercises exclusive control over the distribution of all oil revenue accruing to the country. Our problem of federalism therefore is not rooted in ethnic dynamics. We are simply not adhering to the core principles of federalism.

Another key issue in Nigeria is the weakness of the separation of powers. Under military rule, there was no parliament and the judiciary were subjected to military authority. The result was that the executive arm became “overdeveloped” relative to the two other arms of government. This history of executive dominance has made it difficult for the legislature to play its role fully in the democratic system. The legislature has however been making bold attempts to play its role on an equal footing. The legislature in the Second Republic for example only passed bills that emanated from the executive. Under the Fourth Republic however, many private members bills have been passed into law.

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim

Senior Fellow

Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja

Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17

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Jibrin Ibrahim

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Nov 28, 2020, 7:54:19 AM11/28/20

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Thanks Olayinka, for my views on the issue, you may want to refer to:

"Ethno-Religious Limits to the Construction of Federalism in Africa: Yugoslavia and Nigeria Compared" in A. T. Gana & S. G. Egwu (Eds) Federalism in Africa: Framing the National Question, Trenton, 2003.

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim

Senior Fellow

Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja

Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/DB6PR04MB29827C9E82FE507A916AFF0AA6F80%40DB6PR04MB2982.eurprd04.prod.outlook.com.

OLAYINKA AGBETUYI

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Nov 28, 2020, 9:30:28 AM11/28/20

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Thanks Jibrin.

I followed the Yugoslavian implosion keenly at the time and I think the referenced book may have been overtaken by recent events ; what is more the co-axial features of ethnicity and religion ( even sectarianism within the same religion) are constant staples in most polities and not just the two countries compared.

But I will check out the book anyway.

OAA

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-------- Original message --------

From: Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinib...@gmail.com>

Date: 28/11/2020 12:58 (GMT+00:00)

To: 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>

Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Ethnic federalism

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Thanks Olayinka, for my views on the issue, you may want to refer to:

Professor Jibrin Ibrahim

Senior Fellow

Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja

Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17

On Fri, 27 Nov 2020 at 19:49, OLAYINKA AGBETUYI <yagb...@hotmail.com> wrote:

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/usaafricadialogue/DB6PR04MB29827C9E82FE507A916AFF0AA6F80%40DB6PR04MB2982.eurprd04.prod.outlook.com.

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