Mali
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Jibrin Ibrahim
Nov 14, 2025, 2:01:56 PMNov 14
to 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series
Mali, Mariam Cisse and the Risk of Implosion
Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy Column, Daily Trust, 14th November 2025
Five years ago, a military junta took over power in Mali with a firm
promise to end terrorism and establish security in the country, end
French neo-colonialism and set the country on the path of development.
Last Saturday, Mariam Cisse, a twenty-year old social influencer with
90,000 followers on TikTok was arrested by jihadists while creating
content in the market in her town of Tonka near Timbuktu. The
following day, Sunday this week, they brought her back to the market,
announced that she had been producing video content supportive of the
military junta and executed her. There were no Malian security forces
to protect her. Among the onlookers were her brother and uncle. The
incident has been a major turning point in the development of
collective shock and trauma by terrorists who have completely changed
their modus operandi in the past few years.
In 2012, they set out to capture the entire country, beginning from
the north. They captured territory after territory, setting up
administrative and judicial structures for the implementation of
Sharia law, and killing or jailing all those who disagreed with them.
They also burnt down libraries of the Sufi orders and destroyed the
tombs and mausoleums of their saints. The question that arose was how
similar would Mali Jihad 201 be to Jihad 101.
Two months ago, fighters from JNIM, the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the
Support of Islam and Muslims, imposed a fuel blockade that has forced
the government to close schools and prevented harvesting in several
regions. They burnt down over 100 fuel tankers trying to get fuel to
Bamako on the Dakar-Bamako route. With that axis closed, the
government started bringing in fuel from Cote d”Ivoire in the south
and they closed that route also. An attempt was made to bring in a few
tankers from Niamey and that route was also closed and the three
million inhabitants of Bamako are today encircled with schools and
business closed due to lack of fuel. Inflation is galloping due to
lack of supplies of goods. Will JNIM take over Bamako? It does not
seem likely! They appear to be pushing a strategy of regime implosion
as life becomes impossible for Malians.
Mali is a huge country with 1,241,328 km² and a frontier of 7240 km
with seven countries – Algeria, Niger, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire,
Guinea, Senegal and Mauritania. If the country implodes, it is the
entire West African region that will come down with it and there is
urgent need for the entire region to get into salvation mode
intervention and diplomacy. In 2012, it was the inability of ECOWAS to
deploy forces on the ground to combat the insurgents that led to the
takeover of much of northern Mali by insurgents and the attempted
march on Bamako. Without an ECOWAS Standby Force intervention, Mali
was forced to call on France to send in jet fighters to stop the
takeover of Bamako and fight back the terrorist takeover. Almost a
decade later, France failed and was expelled from the country.
The French intervention from Friday 11th January 2013 which began with
air strikes and later ground troops halted the advances by the
insurgents and led to the recapture of all major towns and cities they
held. Up till that time, there had been endless discussions with the
UN Security Council about the authorisation of the ECOWAS/African
Union demand to establish a 3,300 strong-mission to Mali with the
acronym AFISMA for an initial period of one-year and the international
community had been lackadaisical about acting. The raised the issue of
the “necessity” of a one-year human rights training for the troops to
be sent, while in three days, the insurgents took over the three key
northern towns of Kidal, Timbuctoo and Gao. It turned out the plan all
along was to bring in France. When the French took over Kidal, the
vital artery to the north, they refused to carry the Malian army along
and appear to the making a deal with the Tuareg MNLA on running the
city. That was the point where the French agenda was exposed, and the
rest, as they say, is history.
The coup d’état of Assimi Goita of August 2020 was supposed to end the
state of insecurity and set Mali on the course to development based on
the exercise of full sovereignty. The French and the United Nations
were chased out and the patriots took over power. The reality five
years later is that insecurity today is much worse than before the
junta came into power. JNIM insurgents are quietly taking over
villages, towns and cities but they are not taking over direct
territorial control, nor establishing a new administration. They are
simply showing the people that - we have the power, look at your
useless military, there is nothing they can do. The state is
crumbling, poverty is deepening, hunger is spreading and inflation is
getting out of hand. Many Malians are fleeing the country and moving
to Cote d”Ivoire. This is the context in which the fuel crisis was
devised by the terrorists as a mechanism to accelerate state
collapse. The tariff on fuel constitutes 40% of state revenue in Mali
so as the crisis deepens, state bankruptcy is on the agenda. Without
fuel, even the mines are closing down so economic activities have
ceased.
As the state crumbles, beautiful videos are being produced on the
great success of the country against imperialism and on development.
The latest this week is the laying of the foundation stone of the best
hospital in West Africa that will be built soon by the government. The
reality is that the government is not in charge of much of the
country. The government is however right in its explanation that the
gang of five – France, Algeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Ukraine
are responsible for creating the massive insecurity characterising the
country. It appears that armed Ukrainian drones are used to blow up
fuel tankers and crippling their military escorts. The recruitment of
the Wagner group, now re-baptised as the African Corps has not
produced significant gains for the Malian army. It has in fact
worsened their reputation with the series of massacres of civilians
they have orchestrated.
Given the high level of political repression in the country, there is
no opposition to the military within the country. The junta dismisses
the exiled opposition as megaphones of the gang of five orchestrated
by France. Rumours circulating that the radical Salafist mobiliser,
Imam Dicko, currently in exile in Algeria would return to negotiate a
way forward have been dismissed by the Government. The problem for the
junta is that they have justified their coup on a promise of improving
the security situation and they have failed. At the same time, there
are virtually no other legitimate interlocutors within the country to
seek a way out.
The two other AES countries – Burkina Faso and Niger are suffering
from similar levels of insecurity and appear unable to save
themselves. The AES countries have left ECOWAS but the crisis within
them can lead to the implosion of not just the Sahelian states, but
also the Gulf of Guinea countries. We cannot sit down and watch Mali
implode. We are all at risk. The time to act is now.
Professor Jibrin Ibrahim
Senior Fellow
Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja
Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17
Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy Column, Daily Trust, 14th November 2025
Five years ago, a military junta took over power in Mali with a firm
promise to end terrorism and establish security in the country, end
French neo-colonialism and set the country on the path of development.
Last Saturday, Mariam Cisse, a twenty-year old social influencer with
90,000 followers on TikTok was arrested by jihadists while creating
content in the market in her town of Tonka near Timbuktu. The
following day, Sunday this week, they brought her back to the market,
announced that she had been producing video content supportive of the
military junta and executed her. There were no Malian security forces
to protect her. Among the onlookers were her brother and uncle. The
incident has been a major turning point in the development of
collective shock and trauma by terrorists who have completely changed
their modus operandi in the past few years.
In 2012, they set out to capture the entire country, beginning from
the north. They captured territory after territory, setting up
administrative and judicial structures for the implementation of
Sharia law, and killing or jailing all those who disagreed with them.
They also burnt down libraries of the Sufi orders and destroyed the
tombs and mausoleums of their saints. The question that arose was how
similar would Mali Jihad 201 be to Jihad 101.
Two months ago, fighters from JNIM, the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the
Support of Islam and Muslims, imposed a fuel blockade that has forced
the government to close schools and prevented harvesting in several
regions. They burnt down over 100 fuel tankers trying to get fuel to
Bamako on the Dakar-Bamako route. With that axis closed, the
government started bringing in fuel from Cote d”Ivoire in the south
and they closed that route also. An attempt was made to bring in a few
tankers from Niamey and that route was also closed and the three
million inhabitants of Bamako are today encircled with schools and
business closed due to lack of fuel. Inflation is galloping due to
lack of supplies of goods. Will JNIM take over Bamako? It does not
seem likely! They appear to be pushing a strategy of regime implosion
as life becomes impossible for Malians.
Mali is a huge country with 1,241,328 km² and a frontier of 7240 km
with seven countries – Algeria, Niger, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire,
Guinea, Senegal and Mauritania. If the country implodes, it is the
entire West African region that will come down with it and there is
urgent need for the entire region to get into salvation mode
intervention and diplomacy. In 2012, it was the inability of ECOWAS to
deploy forces on the ground to combat the insurgents that led to the
takeover of much of northern Mali by insurgents and the attempted
march on Bamako. Without an ECOWAS Standby Force intervention, Mali
was forced to call on France to send in jet fighters to stop the
takeover of Bamako and fight back the terrorist takeover. Almost a
decade later, France failed and was expelled from the country.
The French intervention from Friday 11th January 2013 which began with
air strikes and later ground troops halted the advances by the
insurgents and led to the recapture of all major towns and cities they
held. Up till that time, there had been endless discussions with the
UN Security Council about the authorisation of the ECOWAS/African
Union demand to establish a 3,300 strong-mission to Mali with the
acronym AFISMA for an initial period of one-year and the international
community had been lackadaisical about acting. The raised the issue of
the “necessity” of a one-year human rights training for the troops to
be sent, while in three days, the insurgents took over the three key
northern towns of Kidal, Timbuctoo and Gao. It turned out the plan all
along was to bring in France. When the French took over Kidal, the
vital artery to the north, they refused to carry the Malian army along
and appear to the making a deal with the Tuareg MNLA on running the
city. That was the point where the French agenda was exposed, and the
rest, as they say, is history.
The coup d’état of Assimi Goita of August 2020 was supposed to end the
state of insecurity and set Mali on the course to development based on
the exercise of full sovereignty. The French and the United Nations
were chased out and the patriots took over power. The reality five
years later is that insecurity today is much worse than before the
junta came into power. JNIM insurgents are quietly taking over
villages, towns and cities but they are not taking over direct
territorial control, nor establishing a new administration. They are
simply showing the people that - we have the power, look at your
useless military, there is nothing they can do. The state is
crumbling, poverty is deepening, hunger is spreading and inflation is
getting out of hand. Many Malians are fleeing the country and moving
to Cote d”Ivoire. This is the context in which the fuel crisis was
devised by the terrorists as a mechanism to accelerate state
collapse. The tariff on fuel constitutes 40% of state revenue in Mali
so as the crisis deepens, state bankruptcy is on the agenda. Without
fuel, even the mines are closing down so economic activities have
ceased.
As the state crumbles, beautiful videos are being produced on the
great success of the country against imperialism and on development.
The latest this week is the laying of the foundation stone of the best
hospital in West Africa that will be built soon by the government. The
reality is that the government is not in charge of much of the
country. The government is however right in its explanation that the
gang of five – France, Algeria, Cote d’Ivoire, Mauritania and Ukraine
are responsible for creating the massive insecurity characterising the
country. It appears that armed Ukrainian drones are used to blow up
fuel tankers and crippling their military escorts. The recruitment of
the Wagner group, now re-baptised as the African Corps has not
produced significant gains for the Malian army. It has in fact
worsened their reputation with the series of massacres of civilians
they have orchestrated.
Given the high level of political repression in the country, there is
no opposition to the military within the country. The junta dismisses
the exiled opposition as megaphones of the gang of five orchestrated
by France. Rumours circulating that the radical Salafist mobiliser,
Imam Dicko, currently in exile in Algeria would return to negotiate a
way forward have been dismissed by the Government. The problem for the
junta is that they have justified their coup on a promise of improving
the security situation and they have failed. At the same time, there
are virtually no other legitimate interlocutors within the country to
seek a way out.
The two other AES countries – Burkina Faso and Niger are suffering
from similar levels of insecurity and appear unable to save
themselves. The AES countries have left ECOWAS but the crisis within
them can lead to the implosion of not just the Sahelian states, but
also the Gulf of Guinea countries. We cannot sit down and watch Mali
implode. We are all at risk. The time to act is now.
Professor Jibrin Ibrahim
Senior Fellow
Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja
Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17
Emeagwali, Gloria (History)
Nov 17, 2025, 8:34:24 PMNov 17
to Jibrin Ibrahim, 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series
Hundreds of members of JNIM
surrendered this week.Bamako
did not fall and Mali 🇲🇱 prevails,
despite the concerted efforts by
France and its sympathizers.
Yes the terrorists generated a fuel
crisis but that was also overcome .
We should commend the Malian
government for its valiant efforts
and gains against the terrorists, especially
since France and allies are doing
their best for Mali to fail.
It is shocking that the terrorist
murder of Marian Cisse would
be used to justify external
intervention.Should this not be
another reason for fully supporting
the Malian government and its
efforts?
The well - orchestrated tale of Malian
collapse, fuelled by the Western
media across networks, should be
seen by analysts for what it really
is, namely, a naked attempt to
generate Libyan- style R2P.
That is not to say that all is well
in Mali but we know for sure that
France and its allies cannot be
trusted.
Dr. Gloria Emeagwali
Professor of History/African Studies, CCSU
Chief Editor- "Africa Update"
https://sites.ccsu.edu/afstudy/archive.html
Gloria Emeagwali's Documentaries
www.vimeo.com/gloriaemeagwali
www.africahistory.net
Founding Coordinator, African Studies, CCSU
Professor of History/African Studies, CCSU
Chief Editor- "Africa Update"
https://sites.ccsu.edu/afstudy/archive.html
Gloria Emeagwali's Documentaries
www.vimeo.com/gloriaemeagwali
www.africahistory.net
Founding Coordinator, African Studies, CCSU
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