Re: Prof. Olukotun's Column

[Ayo Olukotun]

[Corrected Copy]

NOTES FROM A ROUNDTABLE ON XENOPHOBIA, AFROPHOBIA

by Ayo Olukotun

 

“When your hosts begin to insinuate that the rough, almost inedible end of a yam tuber is all the food that they have left at home, then the visitor should plan his exit without delay” – Yoruba Proverb

“Inflammatory headlines and negative stereotyping of other Africans by the South African media did not help matters. A sample would include: ‘Illegals in South Africa add to decay of cities, ‘Africa floods into Cape Town’, ‘6 million migrants headed our way” - Presentation by Dr Olubunmi Akande, Durban University of Technology on Thursday, 26^th September, 2019.

As suggested by President Muhammadu Buhari’s ongoing visit to South Africa, the country is still very much in the traumatizing and humbling wake of the recent xenophobic outburst in South Africa, resulting in the dislocation and journeying back home of hundreds of Nigerians. It was appropriate and topical therefore, that a roundtable was held last week by the African Journal of International Affairs and Development (AJIAD), in collaboration with the Department of Politics and International Relations, of Lead City University, Ibadan, on the subject, in honour of one of its oldest and distinguished professors, Alaba Ogunsanwo, who turned 77 years earlier this year. Ogunsanwo had joined the University after his retirement from the University of Lagos twelve years ago, when he turned 65 years, and according to the institution’s Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of Council, Prof. Babajide Owoeye, had been a remarkable asset to the institution, role model scholar, whose modesty and simple lifestyle directly contradicts his fame. On the panel of discussants were Prof. Olawale Albert, a former director of the Institute of Peace and strategic Studies (IPSS), University of Ibadan, Prof. Tunji Olaopa, Executive Vice-chairman of the Ibadan School of Government and Public Policy (ISGPP), Dr Akeem Amodu, an associate professor at the host University, Dr Olubunmi Akande, from the Durban University of Technology, South Africa, as well as this columnist.

 

Kick starting the event, the head of department of Politics and International Relations, Dr Tunde Oseni, provided a rationale for the roundtable, in terms of the need to honour Ogunsanwo, and the imperative to provide policy remedies and initiatives for the issues of Xenophobia and Afrophobia. Of course, analysis must precede prescription, therefore, it is important that egg-heads collate insights from the perspective of their respective disciplines. Lamenting the xenophobic and Afrophobic downturn in South Africa, Albert, quoted a 2018 World Bank report which suggested that rather than being a drain on the economy, every immigrant worker in South Africa generated two jobs for South Africans, considering that their diverse skills set resulted in productivity gains and had multiplier effects for the economy. In other words, propaganda, hate speeches and stereotypes have replaced sober analyses regarding the actual effect of immigration on the South African economy. That, of course, is only one side of the matter, because there is a seamy underside populated by criminals and immigrants with little or no skills, who had escaped their countries illegally, in order to forage for a living. Albert, while maintaining that discourse on the subject has been dominated by this underside, which are a minority of the immigrant population, went on to provide disturbing statistics about Nigerian immigrants in that country. For example, 10,000 Nigerians are reportedly trapped in South African prisons, 40,000 have been convicted for stealing, drugs, human trafficking and visa racketeering, while 6,000 other Nigerians are awaiting trial for other offences. So, it would appear that the negative and horrible impact of Nigerians engaged in crime, created the stereotypes, embellished by politicians and the media, giving rise to xenophobia and Afrophobia. Rummaging for solutions, Albert underpins the imperative of the African Union, which he insists, should not only condemn the outrage, but should convene a special Summit, to come up with policy guidelines.

 

The insights provided in the two quotations in the opening paragraph, concerns the need for early warning systems and possible deterrents against Xenophobic media attacks on foreigners. This brings us to the paper by Olaopa, which makes a distinction between xenophobic violence and xenophobia, the latter being, “an attitudinal orientation of hostility against non-natives”, while the former speaks to specific acts of violence targeted at immigrants. Obviously, as the paper points out, the two are related because violence feeds on pre-existing hostility and relentlessly negative stereotyping in public discourse. One of the interesting reasons why Nigerians have been frequently targeted in the recurrent xenophobic attacks, concerns, as Olaopa narrated it, the vanity and opulent lifestyles of Nigerians, and their being preferred by South African women, because they are big spenders. Predictably, this is an area that is difficult to capture by policy, but one can appeal to the good sense of Nigerian immigrants who succeed to be sensitive, for survival reasons, to the context and contestations of their new environment. Olaopa’s suggestions of better intelligence gathering, mapping out potential hotspots for attacks, the use of technology-based hotline systems and social media platforms, should reward further study by policy makers.

 

Of interest is the paper by Dr Olubunmi Akande, who brings to bear on the subject, the perspective of her experience as a recent doctoral graduate from one of South African universities. For example, she indicates typical examples of xenophobic perception by South African workers such as, “They should go because we have no jobs. I may want to work for 150 Rands a day, but foreigners settle for 70 Rands a day”. There is also, she mentioned, the depiction in the media, of African immigrants as illegal, buttressed by the association of Nigerians with drug trafficking, Congolese with passport racketeering and smuggling. That is not all. A preexisting high crime rate means that there is a culture of violence in place, which ensures that prejudice easily turns to hate speech, and hate speech to direct violence. As panaceas, she suggested the increased commitment from the South African government to tackle underlying factors, and the need for other African governments to make their countries more habitable in order to stem the perennial exodus. Hopefully, Buhari may be able to extract commitments to more frontal remedial measures from President Cyril Ramaphosa; even at that, its implementation will depend on the see-saw and swings of political moods.

To underline this point, and as this columnist pointed out, politicians eternally bound to swings in the public mood, unsurprisingly, stoke xenophobic fires. The rising popularity of right-wing xenophobic parties, in Europe, is a pointer to the symbiosis between anti-immigrant sentiments and politicians’ handling or mishandling of the situation through demagoguery. There is a qualification, however, that when these right-wing parties become more acceptable and centrist, they tend to drop some of their more offensive rhetoric, by trading them for a broader insertion into the mainstream. The point to note, nonetheless, is that xenophobia and Afrophobia will not go away in a hurry, because they are amenable to politicization.

To end on a positive note, let me refer to the formulation of Amodu, who envisages that the bonds of African brotherhood would be so stimulated by African leaders, under the AU, that instead of Afrophobia and Xenophobia, we would be talking about Afrophilia and Xenophilia, capturing thereby, a need to move beyond the current fractured mien to notions of African brotherhood and fraternity.

 

-        Prof. Ayo Olukotun is the Oba (Dr.) Sikiru Adetona Chair of Governance, Department of Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye.

On Thursday, October 3, 2019, 03:31:59 PM GMT+1, Ayo Olukotun <ayo_ol...@yahoo.com> wrote:

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NOTES FROM A ROUNDTABLE ON XENOPHOBIA, AFROPHOBIA

by Ayo Olukotun

 

“When your hosts begins to insinuate that that the rough, almost inedible end of a yam tuber is all the food that they have left at home, then the visitor should plan his exit without delay” – Yoruba Proverb

“Inflammatory headlines and negative stereotyping of other Africans by the South African media did not help matters. A sample would include: ‘Illegals in South Africa add to decay of cities, ‘Africa floods into Cape Town’, ‘6 million migrants headed our way” - Presentation by Dr Olubunmi Akande, Durban University of Technology on Thursday, 26^th September, 2019.

As suggested by President Muhammadu Buhari’s ongoing visit to South Africa, the country is still very much in the traumatizing and humbling wake of the recent xenophobic outburst in South Africa, resulting in the dislocation and journeying back home of hundreds of Nigerians. It was appropriate and topical therefore, that a roundtable was held last week by the African Journal of International Affairs and Development (AJIAD), in collaboration with the Department of Politics and International Relations, of Lead City University, Ibadan, on the subject, in honour of one of its oldest and distinguished professors, Alaba Ogunsanwo, who turned 77 years earlier this year. Ogunsanwo had joined the University after his retirement from the University of Lagos twelve years ago, when he turned 65 years, and according to the institution’s Pro-Chancellor and Chairman of Council, Prof. Babajide Owoeye, had been a remarkable asset to the institution, role model scholar, whose modesty and simple lifestyle directly contradicts his fame. On the panel of discussants were Prof. Olawale Albert, a former director of the Institute of Peace and strategic Studies (IPSS), University of Ibadan, Prof. Tunji Olaopa, Executive Vice-chairman of the Ibadan School of Government and Public Policy (ISGPP), Dr Akeem Amodu, an associate professor at the host University, Dr Olubunmi Akande, from the Durban University of Technology, South Africa, as well as this columnist.

 

Kick starting the event, the head of department of Politics and International Relations, Dr Tunde Oseni, provided a rationale for the roundtable, in terms of the need to honour Ogunsanwo, and the imperative to provide policy remedies and initiatives for the issues of Xenophobia and Afrophobia. Of course, analysis must precede prescription, therefore, it is important that egg-heads collate insights from the perspective of their respective disciplines. Lamenting the xenophobic and Afrophobic downturn in South Africa, Albert, quoted a 2018 World Bank report which suggested that rather than being a drain on the economy, every immigrant worker in South Africa generated two jobs for South Africans, considering that their diverse skills set resulted in productivity gains and had multiplier effects for the economy. In other words, propaganda, hate speeches and stereotypes have replaced sober analyses regarding the actual effect of immigration on the South African economy. That, of course, is only one side of the matter, because there is a seamy underside populated by criminals and immigrants with little or no skills, who had escaped their countries illegally, in order to forage for a living. Albert, while maintaining that discourse on the subject has been dominated by this underside, which are a minority of the immigrant population, went on to provide disturbing statistics about Nigerian immigrants in that country. For example, 10,000 Nigerians are reportedly trapped in South African prisons, 40,000 have been convicted for stealing, drugs, human trafficking and visa racketeering, while 6,000 other Nigerians are awaiting trial for other offences. So, it would appear that the negative and horrible impact of Nigerians engaged in crime, created the stereotypes, embellished by politicians and the media, giving rise to xenophobia and Afrophobia. Rummaging for solutions, Albert underpins the imperative of the African Union, which he insists, should not only condemn the outrage, but should convene a special Summit, to come up with policy guidelines.

 

The insights provided in the two quotations in the opening paragraph, concerns the need for early warning systems and possible deterrents against Xenophobic media attacks on foreigners. This brings us to the paper by Olaopa, which makes a distinction between xenophobic violence and xenophobia, the latter being, “an attitudinal orientation of hostility against non-natives”, while the former speaks to specific acts of violence targeted at immigrants. Obviously, as the paper points out, the two are related because violence feeds on pre-existing hostility and relentlessly negative stereotyping in public discourse. One of the interesting reasons why Nigerians have been frequently targeted in the recurrent xenophobic attacks, concerns, as Olaopa narrated it, the vanity and opulent lifestyles of Nigerians, and their being preferred by South African women, because they are big spenders. Predictably, this is an area that is difficult to capture by policy, but one can appeal to the good sense of Nigerian immigrants who succeed to be sensitive, for survival reasons, to the context and contestations of their new environment. Olaopa’s suggestions of better intelligence gathering, mapping out potential hotspots for attacks, the use of technology-based hotline systems and social media platforms, should reward further study by policy makers.

 

Of interest is the paper by Dr Olubunmi Akande, who brings to bear on the subject, the perspective of her experience as a recent doctoral graduate from one of South African universities. For example, she indicates typical examples of xenophobic perception by South African workers such as, “They should go because we have no jobs. I may want to work for 150 Rands a day, but foreigners settle for 70 Rands a day”. There is also, she mentioned, the depiction in the media, of African immigrants as illegal, buttressed by the association of Nigerians with drug trafficking, Congolese with passport racketeering and smuggling. That is not all. A preexisting high crime rate means that there is a culture of violence in place, which ensures that prejudice easily turns to hate speech, and hate speech to direct violence. As panaceas, she suggested the increased commitment from the South African government to tackle underlying factors, and the need for other African governments to make their countries more habitable in order to stem the perennial exodus. Hopefully, Buhari may be able to extract commitments to more frontal remedial measures from President Cyril Ramaphosa; even at that, its implementation will depend on the see-saw and swings of political moods.

To underline this point, and as this columnist pointed out, politicians eternally bound to swings in the public mood, unsurprisingly, stoke xenophobic fires. The rising popularity of right-wing xenophobic parties, in Europe, is a pointer to the symbiosis between anti-immigrant sentiments and politicians’ handling or mishandling of the situation through demagoguery. There is a qualification, however, that when these right-wing parties become more acceptable and centrist, they tend to drop some of their more offensive rhetoric, by trading them for a broader insertion into the mainstream. The point to note, nonetheless, is that xenophobia and Afrophobia will not go away in a hurry, because they are amenable to politicization.

To end on a positive note, let me refer to the formulation of Amodu, who envisages that the bonds of African brotherhood would be so stimulated by African leaders, under the AU, that instead of Afrophobia and Xenophobia, we would be talking about Afrophilia and Xenophilia, capturing thereby, a need to move beyond the current fractured mien to notions of African brotherhood and fraternity.

 

-        Prof. Ayo Olukotun is the Oba (Dr.) Sikiru Adetona Chair of Governance, Department of Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye.

[Sione Angilau]

This article is talking about the connection of Afrophobia and xenophobia in South Africa's economy. These are influenced by many hate speeches and propaganda going through South Africa's  immigration. On other hand, these immigrants have little to no skill for the requirements of the jobs hurting the economy even more. Overall, I think this article is good way to introduce both side of the argument. 

[Gerald D Liddell]

This article is addressing the ties of Afrophobia and xenophobia. The article talks about the failure to address and fix these problems. The writer also states that these problems will not go away because they are amendable to politicization. This article was helpful in learning about both Afrophobia and xenophobia.

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[Evelyn Gomez]

In this article, Dr Tunde Oseni explores both sides of the argument regarding the perspective of South Africans regarding immigration and their xenophobic point of view. Dr Tunde Oseni begins by stating the fact that “every immigrant worker in South Africa generated two jobs for South Africans.” So the argument of African migrants destroying the economy and taking away jobs from South Africa’s in false. Oseni also mentions the other side of the argument by stating that there is Nigerians who do commit crimes in South Africa. It’s obvious that the select few who do engage in illegal activities are ruining the opportunities for the rest. It is terrible how much a stereotype can run the policies in a country.   

On Mon, Oct 7, 2019 at 5:52 PM Sione Angilau <sionea...@gmail.com> wrote:

[Laura J Jackson]

This article addresses the rise in xenophobic attacks and the resulting consequences. A round table was convened to discuss the issues at hand and evidence was provided that suggested that the introduction of immigrants actually had positive affects on the economy. They did point out that although there may be evidence to suggest that immigration can be economically beneficial, there are still immigrant populations that enter the country illegally and become an economic burden. The article also discusses the stereotypes that have contributed to the xenophobia and afrophobia that has fueled these attacks. There is obviously a political issue at play with the increasing migrant populations, and the proposal for intelligence and technology to track and possibly prevent xenophobic violence is an innovative idea that could help to change the current conditions in South Africa. 

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[Ayo Olukotun]

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Subject: Prof. Olukotun's Column

THE 2019 NOBEL AWARDS AND OUR DIMINISHING INTELLECTUAL SPACES

by Ayo Olukotun

 

Once upon a season of spirited intellectual activity, this nation bubbled with a modicum of expectancy, conversation, animation, educated guesses at the onset of the annual Nobel prize awards. Newspapers suggested which Nigerian, African academic, or star writer, will do Nigeria proud like Wole Soyinka did in 1986, when he clinched the coveted literature prize. The possibilities of Nigerian or African academics in the diaspora becoming laureates, provided grist for popular discussion and occasional headlines in the newspapers. Today, however, we occupy a Philistine universe, in which the annual awards have become approximately non-events; the very inspiring concept of a Nobel hopeful, an index of luminous scholarly stature has been wiped off the national discourse map, replaced by more earthy concerns like the fortunes of European football club sides, or who has the best chance of winning the presidential contest in 2023, still a clear 4 years away.

6, out of 10 Nigerian graduates, may never have heard of the Nobel Prize, much less, be able to tease out its significance. This state of affairs did not arrive suddenly; it worked itself through a series of processes such as the economic disempowerment of the intellectual class, which ensured that the best and brightest became intellectual court jesters to uncultivated political and military classes, sex for grades practices in the Ivory tower, the lust for degrees rather than learning, and the bureaucratisation of the universities, reducing them to centres of power plays, routine, rather than creativity and innovation. True, individuals here and there continued to labour against disabling odds, but to paraphrase an expression popularized by Niyi Osundare, the universe had vanished from our universities; notwithstanding that, they are capable of regeneration over a period of time if the political class put on their better selves in order to imagine such possibilities. To go back to the Nobel, it is edifying that the Peace prize returned to Africa through the award made to Ethiopia’s leader, Abiy Ahmed, for reasons worth looking at, even emulating by most African leaders. The Nobel committee remarked that Ahmed who came to power last year, during his first 100 days, took unusual reconciliatory steps to heal the broken tie between his country and Eritrea, went on to lift the state of emergency, granted amnesty to political prisoners, discontinued media censorship, removed the ban on opposition party activities, increased the influence of women in politics, dismissed military and civil leaders accused of corruption, among other uplifting activities. Undoubtedly, Ahmed had only commenced what is clearly work in progress, but he had shown flashes of leadership genius that is not so common on this distressed continent.

On the academic awards, debates continue to trail their somewhat exclusive nature, confined as they are, to the Euro-American world, overwhelmingly male dominated, and their continuing status as celebration of the world’s privileged by the privileged. Feminine voices argue for example, that since 1901, when the awards were initiated, only 22, i.e. 3%, have gone to women. To an extent, this may reflect the underrepresentation of women among the pool considered for the award. Nonetheless, it opens a gap that needs to be closed in the interest of inclusiveness. Characteristically, the literature prize went back to its home base, the European continent, though this time around, Central Europe, where it was given to Peter Handke, for, in the words of the committee, ‘an influential work that with linguistic ingenuity has explored the periphery and the specificity of human experience’. As known, a high percentage, virtually all works that come up for the award are long in gestation, and are usually two decades old. It is tautological to add that they are ground breaking endeavours in the tradition of the Magnum Opus. This suggests a lifelong commitment to the academic guild, as well as scholarship that breaks new grounds, and speaks to the human condition. Obviously, talented individuals inhabiting unsteady spaces, are unlikely to come up with such magnificence, considering that scholarship is itself cumulative, and incremental.

Literature however, offers the possibility that creative writers having mastered the language, can break the ranks to turn the tables on the established literati, through imaginative and soul-lifting writing. It is no wonder therefore that it is the only department of knowledge where Africans and less disadvantaged people have won Nobels. The saying that it costs a million dollars to ask a question in nuclear physics, tells us that outside well-furnished and up to date laboratories, and scientific equipment, all the mushrooming academic institutions parading themselves as world-class do not have a chance of competing with countries that spend fortunes on scientific infrastructure. The point being made is that the conditions for scientists becoming Nobel hopefuls do not exist in most African countries, including Nigeria, not the least because of the paltry amounts that they earmark for Higher Education and Research. This matters in other ways as well. For example, the other day, President Muhammadu Buhari, while addressing members of the newly inaugurated Economic Advisory Council, lamented that Nigeria relies overwhelmingly, and to a fault, on data collected by International Institutions. This state of affairs cannot be reversed without building a national scientific infrastructure, in which the gathering of reliable and accurate data, will be a foundational undertaking. For individuals, and for nations, the trick is long term investment in quality education, especially at the highest levels. Consider, for example, that one of this year’s laureates for Physics, James Peebles, is the Albert Einstein Professor Emeritus of Science at Princeton University, and had put 55 years, virtually a lifetime into research in his discipline. Most laureates are in this mould of success coming eventually as a result of lifelong persistence of labour, often in obscurity.

In Nigeria, there is a culture of instant coffee, and instant miracles, in which hustle and bustle are yoked to low hanging fruits, or overnight success. Buildings and roads are constructed in a hurry with scant regard for quality, and it is little wonder they crumble quickly. We are yet to build a culture of masterpieces, of enduring work, of greatness, earned by diligent toil over a stretch of time. The laureates in Economic Sciences namely, Abhijit Barnajee and Esther Duflo, both of the Massachusetts Institute of technology, as well as Michael Kremer of Harvard University, not only transformed development economics, but manifest an engaging link between policy, in this case poverty alleviation, and economics. This topicality and policy orientation reinforce the idea that investment in knowledge, and knowledge diffusion, are the building blocks of a better, safer and more qualitative world.

Nigeria, given the current prostrate state of quality education, may not be able to produce another Nobel laureate in our lifetime; but it can at least relaunch the search for quality education, if only to stem the exodus of Nigerian youths abroad, in the search for it. It can do this by investing more in Higher Education, especially creating Centres of Excellence, by straightening out the warp in values which diminishes education as a cardinal pursuit, and by instituting more genuine awards of outstanding quality designed to reward merit and hard work. If we do these, the tide may slowly turn in the direction of returning the lost glory of extremely good education in the country.

-        Prof. Ayo Olukotun is the Oba (Dr) Sikiru Adetona Chair of Governance, Department of Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye.

[Ayo Olukotun]

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VISION 2020: MEMENTO OF A FAILED PROJECT

By Ayo Olukotun

'By 2020, Nigeria will be one of the 20 economies in the world, able to consolidate its leadership role in Africa and establish itself as a significant player in the global economic and political arena'  - Vision 2020 Policy Document, 2007

Some years back, the year 2020 looked very much like a distant destination, a place it would take some travelling and plenty of activities to arrive at, but time constantly ambushes us, and like a visitor that arrives way before the anticipated hour, surprises us with what late Harvard historian, Arthur Schlesinger Junior, once called "the accelerating  velocity of history". So, you wake up and find that 2020 is a mere 3 months away, and individuals and nations are wondering what happened to all those fond dreams and projects they once embraced. Vision 2020 used to be one of those Nigerian dreams that ruled the roost for a season, notwithstanding that there were other projects reigning in official and public consciousness at the same time. It is worth our while therefore, to ask the question, what happened to Vision 2020?

Let me give an idea of the scale of planning, or at least planning activity, that went into it. Conceived by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, in 2006, the planning process set in motion by his successor, President Umaru Yar'adua, involved the commissioning of 1000 experts who worked for over 9 months, in order to produce a draft vision 2020. Needless to say, that the procedure gulped down millions of Naira, in a predictable pattern of financial verbosity. That draft document was finally launched in September 2009. Talking about bold declarations and policy plans launched with fanfare, it is important to point out that Nigeria is awash with them. For example, alongside Vision 2020, we had, at about the same time, the Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy; Vision 2010; The United Nations Millennium Development Goals; Yar'adua's 7-point agenda; Jonathan's Transformation Agenda, among several others. No one bothered to make clear the relationship, and the interconnections between these various plans and Vision 2020. Critics pointed out at the time, that the Vision was too far ambitious, considering especially, that Nigeria was in a bottom league position on several development indices, had challenges of infrastructure, of the generation and distribution of electric power, critical to industrial life, remained a one-legged economy, overwhelmingly dependent on spasmodic oil booms, quickly followed by busts, with manufacturing constituting a very low percentage of economic activity. It was difficult to see therefore, how the country was going to leapfrog into the 20th largest economy, within the space of a decade, even if the highly industrialised countries were arrested, so that Nigeria can jump the queue into the 20th position. Clearly therefore, not much thought or clear headed analysis had gone into the elaborate motions of planning, that preceded the launch of the programme. To be sure, the document had divided the stages of growth in a neo-evolutionary fashion into three, namely, Building solid foundation (2008-2010); Achieving the MDGs enroute 2020 (2011-2015), culminating in the destination of becoming a top player with 20th position in the world economy. As far as this columnist is aware, and until the Vision joined the graveyard of Nigeria's abandoned projects, there was no planned review examining the progress made on any of the projected phases of implementation. Like a beautiful architectural drawing, it signalled the possibilities of utopia, bereft however, of precise or significant steps towards laying a foundation, much less, building the proposed edifice.

The reason for undertaking an autopsy of our many aborted visions and deserted projects is to enable us to draw the right lessons from those failures, so that we do not go on repeating the same mistakes, or blindspots all over, with predictable catastrophic results. For when hopes are perpetually raised without concrete achievements, following them, a process of alienation and enstrangement tends to follow the launch of any new vision. In that sense, like a pompously eloquent but derelict husband, we become a nation of bloated promises, not transfromed into worthy attainments. In unearthing the root of the fiasco and futility around Vision 2020, we must recall the reflections, after the event, of Prof. Charles Soludo, a former Governor of the Central Bank, and one of the leading actors in the planning process. Soludo drew attention, in a published newspaper article, to the very casual, almost off-handed manner in which the Vision was conceived. Soludo pointed out that he drew Obasanjo's attention to a Goldman Sach's report on the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), and the next eleven countries (N11), which included Nigeria. The report had predicted that under certain conditions, Nigeria could be well among the world's largest economies by 2025. Soludo then chipped in that the growth rate employed by Sachs was lower than Nigeria's actual growth rate for 2004 and 2005. Upon hearing this, as Soludo narrated it, Obasanjo exclaimed that if that were the case, then Nigeria could even achieve the Vision, by 2020, 5 years ahead of Sach's qualified prediction. Apparently, without further deliberation on the matter, Obasanjo announced Vision 2020 as official policy at a state banquet that very night. The issue here is less Obasanjo than a flawed policy making process, which is not informed by rigorous and painstaking analyses by institutions established for evidence-based formulation of policies. Too often, our leaders make policies on the whim, certainly before they have had time to chew it over and to seek the counsel of institutionally-based experts. Sometimes, policies are made, and implementation begins before we have had time and patience to take stock of possible consequences, both intended and unintended. The current distress of border communities and the skyrocketing of food prices in the wake of the ongoing closure of our borders, will appear to be an example of a policy with good intentions carrying a surfeit of unintentional human suffering in its trail. To go back to Vision 2020, now dotting our policy landscape as a memento of plan failure, nothing would have been lost if more time was taken for consultations and scientific ruminations, including building scenarios before the project was announced.

Another takeaway from the unhappy experience and characteristic abortion of hopes, is the need to develop the much talked about but little implemented bottom-up approach to planning, invoking a multi-stakeholder approach, securing the buy in of critical elite strata, and the populace. Policies come and go, sometimes dying in the offing, because they are made in the closets of cabals, which do not connect with the people or their representatives. The other takeaway concerns the need to breathe life and monitoring capacity into our laggard implementation processes. Too many policies die in the crucible of implementation, where they are either abandoned, mutilated, or even reversed, because of the lack of follow through capacity. Furthermore, interesting lessons could be learnt if we assemble the many policy projects that have died, to see which ones can be resurrected by perhaps scaling them down, and in any case, to draw vital lessons from an inquest into their premature deaths. Finally, we must take care so that visions, like lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years, is not afflicted by the same viruses that dealt Vision 2020 fatal blows.

  - Prof. Ayo Olukotun is the Oba (Dr) Sikiru Adetona Chair of Governance, Department of Political Science, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye.