2023 may not be feasible with rising conflicts, insecurity in Nigeria, UK warns - Vanguard News
Toyin Falola
Gbolahan Gbadamosi
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Cornelius Hamelberg
It’s a well known saying “desperate times calls for desperate measures” and the untenable security situation daily unfolding on the ground in Nigeria calls for an immediate practical solution and not more trite, pious, well-intentioned enunciations about improved logistics in the Nigerian military’s war against terrorism as directed by the democratically elected political leadership or of new, optimistic, mostly theoretical policy announcements.
Apart from what’s well known that the military is under-equipped for the task of wiping out terrorism, the problem is further compounded by some founded/ unfounded suspicions that some elements in the military itself is complicit and in bed with some of the terrorists that the Nigerian army is trying to defeat, that the army itself is divided.
In the Irainian Revolution which kicked off in 1979 , it was all over for the Shah and SAVAK which was busy decimating all living resistance to the continuation of the Shah’s rule, at the point at which Ayatollah Khomeini said, “The people is the army and the army is the people”
Unfortunately when it comes to the currently fractured nation Nigeria, even the sufferation class at the bottom of the broad-based ladder united in “Shuffering and Shmiling” is simultaneously divided and competing along ethnic and to a great extent religious fault lines such as Christian and Islamic identities that shape the landscape, superseding, some would say “ transcending” the poverty and insecurity and lack of equal opportunity problems that are endemic to the vast majority of her citizens
It’s not expected that some good-hearted foreign British diplomat or Commonwealth emissary should make this kind of sound assessment in public, but, so far what’s still left unsaid - is that it's as inevitable as night follows day, that the progressively deteriorating security situation gives enough reason to justify a military takeover / coup d'état , their first national duty they’ll say is that they had no choice than to redeem the situation first and foremost by declaring a state of national emergency etc etc etc. we’ve heard the drift before in various parts of Africa, recently in Guinea, Mali, Sudan, maybe on the horizon, the ouster of Zelensky in Ukraine - regime change
If the various ethnic-based , regional secessionist movements will submit to the overhead Federal army boss and the Federal army hierarchy and chain of command, Land, Sea and Air - or go for secession - the implosion , civil strife, several simultaneous civil wars on our hands is quite another matter and one that the peace- loving would not like to countenance, or encounter for in the midst of other ongoing wars and wars that are looming on the international horizon, the final outcomes in Nigeria could be long, protracted, bloody and uncertain.
“ If music be the food of love, play on “ ( Make love, not war)
Okey Iheduru
"Chairman of NGF and Ekiti State governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi, in his opening remarks at the launch, noted that the proliferation of small arms and light weapons in the country had also made the insecurity situation worse and exacerbated the level of violence and fatalities from crime.
According to him, between May 2011 and February 2021, over 76,000 deaths were reported by the press and tracked by the Nigeria Security Tracker, NST – project of the Council an Foreign Relations, Africa program, which documents violence in Nigeria."
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Cornelius Hamelberg
Ignoramus is going to try to read this one over before pushing the send button.
“Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
Blessed are those who mourn, for they will be comforted.
Blessed are the meek, for they will inherit the earth.
Blessed are those who hunger and thirst after righteousness, for they will be filled.
Blessed are the merciful, for they shall be shown mercy.
Blessed are the pure in heart, for they will see God.
Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called the sons of God.
Blessed are those who are persecuted because of righteousness, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
Blessed are you when people insult you, persecute you and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of me.”
And lastly, and this may be difficult to do in the present circumstances in Nigeria and elsewhere, where the downtrodden are suffering :
”Rejoice and be glad, because great is your reward in heaven, for in the same way they persecuted the prophets who were before you.” ( Jesus’s message to the grassroots, known as the Beatitudes)
In short, “Suffer suffer for world, enjoy for heaven” in the gospel not according to Fela Kuti
"Yes, and how many deaths will it take till he knows that too many people have died?” - the kind of cold-hearted what Biko refers to as “ denialism” that on a grandiose obscene scale masquerades as Holocaust Denial .
In Stockholm in 1993, the scumbag Robert Faurisson was chased out of town by The Reception Committee….
Back to Fela: “ African man we no dey carry shit. Na European man teach us to carry shit.” - and so you have some shit-toting so called black men in cloaks of many colours forever cosying up to the Oyibo for approval, and confirmation, even in the name of African studies…
C’mon Professor Okey Iheduru - great respect for your intimate knowledge of Nigeria's top military brass , but the man you are accusing is no Squealer.
Some honest men are inclined to give our brother the benefit of the doubt, simply because it's unlikely, and it should be a great pity that Ekiti's Dr. Kayode Fayemi (who in my book is somehow associated with , man of impeccable integrity Professor Mobolaji E. Aluko) should knowingly want to whitewash and downplay the gravity of the situation, the extent of the mayhem, the tragedies of death and destruction. He surely could not do that and he surely cannot say that sort of thing to the Brethren who man the self- defence units known as AMOTEKUN - for self- preservation, the security of our own lives, families, and property. It’s a commonsense idea that when any government that is unwilling or incapable or abdicates its responsibility to protect its citizens then the citizens of such a country have no alternative other than to protect themselves - if necessary, from the very government….
The UK Govt’s advice about travel to Nigeria doesn’t give any statistics about the death toll through terrorism , ransom kidnapping, the general collapse and displacement of law and order throughout the federation, replaced by widespread anarchy -
“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.”
First made famous by Yeats and then presaged by Chinua Achebe who persevered along that trajectory throughout his life….
There’s the general policy that e.g China has of “ not interfering in the domestic affairs” of other countries. In that regard of course China sees Taiwan as a breakaway republic that should soon be reintegrated with the mainland. For a surety, the UK government ( the old Colonial office long since renamed the ministry of overseas development, and then the Ministry of International cooperation/ partnership - has no ambition to recolonise or bring Nigeria and other former British colonies back under direct rule or for the various post-independence national anthems to revert to singing “ God save the Queen “
As we all know, the fact is, if the security situation is further exacerbated in the weeks and days leading to what promises to be a chaotic election that cannot be conducted in a free and fair manner because law enforcement cannot guarantee peace and security - is the announcement going to come from Aso Rock that the elections are to be postponed indefinitely or until such a time ( if ever) when the government can assert the territorial integrity over all the spaces known as Nigeria and the elections can be conducted in a secure, peaceful and tranquil atmosphere ? Or is the announcement going to come from some military headquarters, telling us that the Constitution has been suspended - etc etc etc and you had better stay indoors or in your mosques and churches ( curfew time) and await further announcements about what’s going on. And what should be the nationwide reactions to such an announcement. How would Tinubu react? Atiku? Peter Obi? God save the doomsday prophets!
In the meantime far away observers including various embassy staff and others stationed everywhere in and out of Nigeria , look with some trepidation at the gradual erosion of law and order that - God forbid seems to be slowly precipitating the disintegration if not the violent implosion of a country already choked by debt servicing and bursting at the seams and perhaps wondering, who to support in the on-coming disaster if not the central government that keeps the country together as one big market - or should it be more beneficial for the beneficiaries, the exploiters and looters and those places where the received loot is stashed to follow a divide and rule policy - Nigeria much weaker as a conglomeration of several smaller countries, ethnic units? The conspiracy theories and dire predictions are many and the facts on the ground are only gathering speed , as some would say, “ gaining momentum” . But what can be prevented should start being prevented NOW. The saying is, “ a stitch in time saves nine” - and yes - it’s our business. Yours and mine. If NIGERIA succeeds, so do we. Otherwise someone will be playing Jimi Hendrix’s poetic “ The Wind Cries Mary” :
“A broom is drearily sweeping
Up the broken pieces of yesterday's life
Somewhere, a queen is weeping
Somewhere, a king has no wife.”