Carlile Trends - Monday Aug 7th
nw...@zyworld.com
Previous race trends can often help provide a shortlist of potential
winners in the current year's races - hopefully these brief pointers
will assist racegoers at Carlisle today. Due to the changes in the race
schedule in 2006 there are only past records for four races today. The
figure in brackets after the race details is the favourite's strike
rate for the race and the 'lucky draw' number is the stall(s)
providing the most winners for race in previous years, where
applicable:
6.10 - 1Mile H'cap for Lady Amateur Riders (8%): All four past
winners ran 5th or better on last outing and carried 11st or lower.
Only one winner had odds greater than 6/1.
7.10 - 5 Furl M'dn Auction for 2yo (33%): No previous winner had
finished better than 3rd on previous outings and none had raced more
than twice before. Longest SP seen was 10-1. Lucky draw #2.
7.40 - 1M 4F H'cap for 3yo (33%): All past winners last raced between
8-29 days earlier and had good form (5th or better) on either of last
two starts. Most were well backed at odds of 9/2 or shorter with
longest SP seen at 10-1. M Johnston is leading trainer with 2 wins.
Lucky draw #1&3.
8.40 - 6 Furl H'cap for 3yo (16%): Historically an open race with all
past winners having some reasonable form (4th or better) in any of last
three races. Longest winning odds seen 12-1. Most winners drawn in
either the highest/lowest three stalls. Lucky draw #2.
The leading jockeys/trainers at this meeting for the last six years are
as follows:
Jockeys Wins Trainers Wins
R Winston 5 A Berry 2
F Norton 3 I Semple 2
D Allan 2 J Quinn 2
J Fanning 2 M Johnston2
K Darley 2 R Fahey 2
P Hanagan2 T Easterby 2
Last meeting review (Aug 3rd)
The lucky draws fared well with the five races highlighted providing a
6/1 winner and two 2nd places at odds of 22/1 and 20/1 respectively.
Terry Molloy (6/1 winner in 1st race) met the criteria of avoiding the
favourite but looking for odds of 6/1 or shorter - as well as having
the lucky draw! In the 2nd race we didnt hit the target at all! There
were no trends available for the 3rd race. In the 4th race a low draw
(5 or lower) was recommended and with stall 1 a non-runner this left
four options and they obliged filling the first two places at odds of
4/1(William John) and 22/1(Atwirl) respectively. Celtic Spa (15/8
winner of 5th race) met criteria of good form on last outing (1st LTO)
and odds of 5/1 or shorter whilst Fortress (4/1 winner of 6th race)
also met the criteria of good form on last outing (2nd LTO) and odds of
8/1 or shorter. In the 7th and final race the trends suggested a 5yo
with odds of 11/1 or shorter and again Rare Coincidence met the
criteria winning at odds of 10-1.
Information supplied by www.northernracingclub.com