Saturday Stats - July 1st
nw...@zyworld.com
Here are a few trends to ponder on today ahead of the big game!
DRAW TRENDS
The following races were won at least three times by the stall
highlighted over the last 10 years:
210 Newc: Stall 4 (4 wins) Royal Millennium fills the stall today but
is not in particularly good form at present with best form on softer
ground. Available at 12-1 at present or 15.5 on Betfair. Will do well
to get a place today?
2.45 Newc: Stall 9 (3 wins) Woodcote has the draw today and whilst best
form with cut in ground it has been close up last 3 outings so may go
well today. Currently trading at 14-1 or 15.5 on Betfair.
2.25 Nmkt: Stalls 2&5 (3 wins each) Stall 2 now a NR leaves Princess
Georgina in stall 5. Still a maiden & they don't tend to win this
race so place seems best option here. RP tissue price 12-1 before
withdrawal of fav and now trading at 10.5 on Betfair.
3.00 Nmkt: Stall 4 (5 wins) & stall 1 (3 wins) Asian Heights (stall 5)
currently trading at 14-1 (Betfair 18.0) and looks to have placed
chance at best whilst Hard Top (stall 1) looks solid at 9/10 at present
(Betfair 1.93).
3.35 Nmkt: Stall 6 (3 wins) Somnus is in fair form but always seems
better with some cut as I recall. Trading at 7-1 whilst has drifted
this am on Betfair to 9.4.
2.40 Chester: Stall 2 (4 wins) Trafalgar Day may be an interesting
runner here despite form figures. With L Cumani last year and raced
mainly on soft/heavy at end of season. Has moved to new yard and has
1st run today for them in handicap company (1st time) and over a new
trip. Stable also has another runner in race which complicates things
but yard is known for shrewd buys from bigger yards and it won't be a
surprise if this one leaves old form behind if handling faster ground
and longer trip. Available at 12-1 or 13.5 with Betfair.
6.30 Ling: Stall 1 (3 wins) She Wont Wait looks to be up against it
today but its worth bearing in mind missed break last race and regular
jockey back today so an improvement is likely - will that be enough
to scrape into a place though? RP odds 33-1 whilst 65.0 on Betfair!
7.00 Ling: Stall 2 (3 wins) Cosmic Destiny looks interesting again now
back on a winning mark of 57. Id be disappointed if this doesn't make
the frame today. RP odds 13-2 with 8.8 available on Betfair.
9.00 Ling: Stall 5 (4 wins) La Via Fervata is back on AW where last two
wins were achieved. Possibly now a bit high in handicap but should run
a decent race on face of it. RP odds 8-1 with Betfair only 7.0
TRAINERS
The following races have seen at least 3 wins from same yard in last 10
years:
1.50 Nmkt (R Hannon 3 wins): Castara Bay's form in sole race not that
great thus arguably the odds of 13-2 available at present are a bit
skinny (Betfair 8.0) Place material at best?
3.00 Nmkt (M Stoute 3 wins): Hard Top (highlighted under draw stats
also. Solid fav and should go well today.
OTHER STATS:
In Ling field's 8.30 race the last 4 winners all raced 7 days before
and finished 2nd/3rd LTO. Good Article fits the bill today although on
form of last run there is no obvious reason why the tables would be
turned with the fav as well beaten last time and on same terms tonight.
However these are selling platers who are not prone to consistency! As
Champagne Shadow (fav) has never won two races on the bounce this could
represent good value for Good Article at RP odds of 15-2 and if fav has
an off night it may even win! Good article has been well supported on
Betfair early doors and is now down to 5.6.