On 10/08/2021 17:16, Abandoned_Trolley wrote:
>
> You're right - is IS a numbers game, so heres a few numbers for you to
> consider.
>
> The result of the 1975 referendum (called by the Labour government after
> a manifesto commitment) was 67% in favour of remaining.
>
> The result took account of loads of old stupid bigots who voted to leave
> at the time.
>
> 41 years later, most of them have died off, or were too infirm to make
> it to the polling booth. They were replaced by 41 years worth of younger
> smarter voters with much higher educational attainment and A levels
> coming out of their ears.
Too many bigoted assumptions inherent in all the above to be at all
useful, except to show anyone reading it how bigoted you yourself are.
See below ...
> So if the "young + smart = remain" equation has any truth, then you
> would expect that 1975 result of 67% to be a baseline for the 2016
> referendum.
There's your answer, it doesn't:
Young != smart != remain
Old != bigoted != stupid ( != leave )
(in some computing languages '!=' means 'does not equal')
Intelligence, meaning a native measure of ability you are born with, is
very difficult to measure absolutely anyway, and is highly correlated
with genetic inheritance, but very poorly correlated, and even slightly
inversely correlated, with age, see below, and anyway, by the very
definition of average, always half the population will be more
intelligent than average and half less.
The real factor here is source of news:
Young ~= social media = more vulnerable to fake news
Old ~= mainsteam media, vulnerability to fake news
depends on mainstream media.
> The idea that social media is to blame doesnt really hold water either,
FALSE! If you have a situation, as happened during the referendum
campaign, where most young people are being bombarded with anti-EU fake
news, and from a third to a half of mainstream media are also pushing
anti-EU fake news, then the result, however unpatriotic and detrimental
to the best interests of the country it was always going to be, was
unsurprising - extremely disheartening to people like myself as a
demonstration of how stupid either that we have always been or that we
have become, but unsurprising. In fact, I half predicted it in this
very ng about a year beforehand during discussions about the Scottish
Independence Referendum, pushing it as an argument to vote for Scottish
Independence ...
In a thread entitled "STV on three satellite channels?"
On 06/08/2014 20:08, Java Jive wrote:
>
> My chief fear
> is that Scotland votes against independence but then the UK as a whole
> votes to leave the EU. I am perfectly convinced that, given a choice
> between being a member of the EU as an independent country, or being
> within the UK, but outside the EU, Scotland would be better off as the
> former.
Around the same time, though I've not been able to find that post, I,
and I think others here, were also half predicting that Johnson would
become PM, and Trump President!
> for the simple reason that old stupid Leave voters
Again negative stereotyping, having no basis in reality, into bogey men
of your own creation that tells the world nothing useful about old
people but everything about your own bigotry! Intelligence has little
to do with age, if anything increases with it up to a point, because
survival is slightly correlated with intelligence, so, as a population
ages, its average intelligence will rise slightly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Deary
"Lothian Birth Cohort studies
Deary was one of the co-founders of the Lothian Birth Cohort studies of
1921 and 1936.[9] These studies collect data from older Scottish
individuals who, aged 11, had their intelligence tested as part of the
Scottish Mental Surveys of 1932 and 1947. From the year 2000 onward,
Deary and colleagues contacted surviving members of these surveys living
in the Edinburgh and Lothians areas and invited them to retake the same
intelligence test, along with further batteries of cognitive tests.[10]
Members of the cohorts born in 1921 were followed up at age of 79, and
those born in 1936 at age 70. Interview and biomedical data were also
collected from the cohort members to allow wide-ranging investigation of
the causes and consequences of differences in cognition across the lifespan.
Using data from the Lothian Birth Cohort studies, Deary and colleagues
have investigated the effects of ageing on cognition. For instance,
studies have shown that intelligence between age 11 and age 79 is highly
stable (correlation of around r = .66[11]), and that childhood and old
age intelligence have a genetic correlation of .62.[12] A number of
papers from the Lothian Birth Cohort studies, co-authored by Deary, have
reported that higher childhood intelligence scores negatively predict
earlier mortality; that is, more intelligent people live longer.[13]"
Also, older people have more experience of hearing political bunk, and
therefore tend to be more wary when reading it.
> and the biased "Tory press"
> was every bit as biased in 1975 as it is now.
No, standards were definitely higher then than now, and genuine debate
was promoted much more even-handedly. For example, this is Edward Heath
in The Times during the run up to the EEC Referendum of 1975; AIR, as
part of the public debate, successive days had articles both for and
against EEC membership around the same place in the paper, so either
earlier or later in the same series there was an emotive and ill-founded
tirade against the EEC by Michael Foot:
https://archive.org/details/NewsUK1975UKEnglish/Jun%2002%201975%2C%20The%20Times%2C%20%2359411%2C%20UK%20%28en%29/page/n11/mode/2up
> I dont know or pretend to know the answer to this conundrum
Clearly.
> but its
> clear to me that the worn out "Leave voters are stupid" trope simply
> doesn't explain the facts.
It goes some way, but certainly not the whole way, to explaining them,
because unintelligent people and bigots are more likely to be taken in
by fake news of the sort that was widely prevalent during the referendum.