On 17/11/2020 12:15, Bob Latham wrote:
>
> In article <rp01b1$k8k$
1...@dont-email.me>,
> The Natural Philosopher <t...@invalid.invalid> wrote:
>>
>> On 16/11/2020 23:45, Brian Gregory wrote:
>>>
>>> On 19/10/2020 20:00, Andrew wrote:
>>>> On 19/10/2020 14:58, Java Jive wrote:
>>>>> On 19/10/2020 14:51, The Natural Philosopher wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> What climate change would that be, then?
>>>>>
>>>>> The change that's happening now, but people hard of thinking like you
>>>>> keep denying.
>>>>
>>>> Scotland would still be under 2 miles of packed ice and snow if it
>>>> wasn't for natural, cyclical climatic change, which have occured
>>>> many many times over the last 4 billion years.
>>>
>>> But nowhere near as quickly as change is happening now.
>>
>> You have absolutely no way to know that.
>> Nor does anyone ales, Its fraud to state otherwise.
>>
>> Nothing in even the last millennial records gives temperature
>> resolution down to 3 decades.
Nonsense ...
LIE #1: It has been explained to you before that tree ring data can give
proxies for growing conditions including temperature down to individual
years.
LIE #2: Typically for a denialist, you're not comparing like with like
- the known temperature rises from AGW began during the industrial
revolution around 1850, not three decades ago.
>> We have for example no idea how
>> fast the Roman or mediaeval warm periods
We don't know if the mediaeval warm period was even a global phenomenon,
so it's not a useful comparison with the known global rises of today.
>> or the holocene optimum
>> - all of which were warmer than today - occurred.
The scientifically accepted claim that you were arguing against was
"nowhere near as quickly as change is happening now", against which it
is not a valid argument that global temperatures have been higher during
the holocene, which no-one is contesting, and say nothing about the rate
of change. The worrying aspects of AGW are precisely that GMSTs are
increasing more rapidly than is known previously at a time when the
world should have been cooling according to previous trends.
For example:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0530-7
"The distribution of peak global temperatures during the Holocene can
also be compared with recent temperatures. The GMST of the past decade
(2011–2019) averaged 1 °C higher than 1850–190011. For 80% of the
ensemble members, no 200-year interval during the past 12,000 years
exceeded the warmth of the most recent decade. For the other 20% of the
cases, which are primarily from the CPS reconstruction, at least one
200-year interval exceeded the recent decade. This comparison is
conservative in context of temperatures projected for the rest of this
century and beyond, which are very likely to exceed 1 °C above
pre-industrial temperature12. Such projections place the temperature of
the last decade into a long-term context that is more comparable with
the Holocene GMST reconstruction. Furthermore, if the reconstruction is
influenced by a Northern Hemisphere summer bias (discussed below), then
the peak warmth would be overestimated and the recent warming would
therefore stand out even more in comparison."
>> Nor any explanation as to why the little ice age ended years before
>> CO2 started to rise.
LIE #3: It has been explained to you on multiple occasions over at least
the last decade ...
Firstly, that global CO2 and global temperature form a feedback loop ...
CO2 <-> Temperature
... and therefore if one increases, so will the other, thus amplifying
the increase of whichever was first to increase, and similarly if one
reduces, so will the other. It doesn't matter which you begin by
changing, the other will always act to amplify the change and so on
round the feedback loop until a new point of equilibrium is reached.
Secondly, that until AGW the coming and going of ice ages was controlled
by periodic, or cyclical, changes in the parameters of earth's orbit
around the sun called Milankovic cycles, and that these alter the
average amount of radiation falling upon different parts of it, and so
gave rise to periodic changes in temperature, and thus the comings and
goings of ice-ages, and thus why temperature leads CO2 when coming out
of an ice-age. However, it still remains true that if you increase CO2
as man is doing now, then you kick-start the same feedback loop with the
same results.
> So true and indeed the whole ACC position relies on the linking of a
> succession of unproven and even unlikely ideas. Any one of them
> proven wrong and the whole pack of cards collapses.
>
> If you look at temperature and CO2 levels over the last 100 years, a
> rise in CO2 and a simultaneous rise in temperature only occurred
> together from 1976 to 2000 and even that is generous. From 1940 to
> 1975 they were going in the opposite direction.
Different denialist, but still the same old lies, see, for one example
among myriads of possibilities, the link given above.
> Why is it thought a warmer planet is worse for plants or animals. It
> isn't, warmer periods in the past have always been better times for
> man. Greta tells us "people are dying" but never says where - funny
> that.
Yet another unproven denialist claim, where is your *EVIDENCE* for this
assertion stated as though it were fact? Meanwhile, this is ...
ANOTHER PROVEN LIE BY BOB LATHAM, ALREADY DEBUNKED MULTIPLE TIMES, BUT
RESTATED!
For example, crops - increasing CO2 and temperature affects plants,
including human crops, in three ways:
- Climatic effects from increasing temperature;
Direct effect on transpiration of increasing CO2, which:
+ Directly increases yields;
+ Reduces water demand.
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/nasa-study-rising-carbon-dioxide-levels-will-help-and-hurt-crops
"Results show that yields for all four crops grown at levels of carbon
dioxide remaining at 2000 levels would experience severe declines in
yield due to higher temperatures and drier conditions. But when grown at
doubled carbon dioxide levels, all four crops fare better due to
increased photosynthesis and crop water productivity, partially
offsetting the impacts from those adverse climate changes. For wheat and
soybean crops, in terms of yield the median negative impacts are fully
compensated, and rice crops recoup up to 90 percent and maize up to 60
percent of their losses."
So, when all three factors are taken into account for four staple food
crops, two are net unaffected, one is slightly affected, and one is
seriously affected.
> Average orbital distance from sun
> Venus 105M KM, C02=96.40%, temperature 470C
> Earth 150m KM, CO2=0.041%, temperature 15C
But without CO2 would be -18C ...
> Mars 220M KM, CO2=95.32%, temperature -60C
> CO2 is temperature control knob is it?
... so yes, given the orbit we are in, it is.