On 08/12/2021 13:12, Alexander wrote:
>
> Here is an interesting publication:
> h t t p s : / / w w w . r e s e a r c h g a t e . n e t / p u b l i c a t i o n / 3 5 6 7 5 6 7 1 1 _ L a t e s t _ s t a t i s t i c s _ o n _ E n g l a n d _ m o r t a l i t y _ d a t a _ s u g g e s t _ s y s t e m a t i c _ m i s - c a t e g o r i s a t i o n _ o f _ v a c c i n e _ s t a t u s _ a n d _ u n c e r t a i n _ e f f e c t i v e n e s s _ o f _ C o v i d - 1 9 _ v a c c i n a t i o n
The most interesting thing about that is who the authors are:
Martin Neil
Queen Mary, University of London | QMUL · School of Electronic
Engineering and Computer Science BSc PhD
Not an epidemiologist.
Norman Elliott Fenton
Queen Mary, University of London | QMUL · School of Electronic
Engineering and Computer Science
PhD Mathematics (Sheffield University)
Not an epidemiologist.
Scott Mclachlan
Queen Mary, University of London | QMUL · School of Electronic
Engineering and Computer Science
PDRA in Computer and Information Science: Research Fellow in Law
Not an epidemiologist.
Joshua Guetzkow
Hebrew University of Jerusalem | HUJI · Department of Sociology and
Anthropology and Institute of Criminology
Doctor of Philosophy
Not an epidemiologist.
Joel Smalley's scientific contributions in ResearchGate is a blank page,
because he's best known as a lockdown denialist on Shitter ...
h t t p s : / / t w i t t e r . c o m / r e a l j o e l s m a l l e y
... whose profile when last looked up used loaded terminology like ...
"More important things to do than argue the toss with bedwetters"
... so clearly a very biased source, and this is born out by the fact
that he appears to be the same faker who as early as April 2020 was
trying to claim that Democratic-run states were having worse outcomes
than Republican-run states, but reading the article shows so many hidden
but bigoted assumptions that his so-called 'study' was clearly worthless
and irresponsible politicking about the catastrophe that was already
beginning to unfold in the US, and has only got many times worse since
then.
Dr Clare Craig's scientific contributions in ResearchGate is also a
blank page, because she's best known as a lockdown denialist who seems
to spend more time on Shitter than someone with a full-time job should
be able, and who is already famous in this ng as having had at one time
five provable errors in the first page of her Shitter feed.
So, of the authors we can identify, we have a bunch of non-experts in
epidemiology, all known to have a right-wing bias, and therefore should
be suspicious from the outset, but how much credence should be given
them can only be determined by looking at the paper itself. Here is its
abstract:
"The risk/benefit of Covid vaccines is arguably most accurately measured
by an all-cause mortality rate comparison of vaccinated against
unvaccinated, since it not only avoids most confounders relating to case
definition but also fulfils the WHO/CDC definition of “vaccine
effectiveness” for mortality. We examine the latest UK ONS vaccine
mortality surveillance report which provides the necessary information
to monitor this crucial comparison over time. At first glance the ONS
data suggest that, in each of the older age groups, all-cause mortality
is lower in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. Despite this apparent
evidence to support vaccine effectiveness - at least for the older age
groups - on closer inspection of this data, this conclusion is cast into
doubt because of a range of fundamental inconsistencies and anomalies in
the data. Whatever the explanations for the observed data, it is clear
that it is both unreliable and misleading. While socio-demographical
and behavioural differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated have
been proposed as possible explanations, there is no evidence to support
any of these. By Occam’s razor we believe the most likely explanations
are systemic miscategorisation of deaths between the different
categories of unvaccinated and vaccinated; delayed or non-reporting of
vaccinations; systemic underestimation of the proportion of
unvaccinated; and/or incorrect population selection for Covid deaths."
This starts off well enough, by which I mean free from value-judgement,
except perhaps the word 'arguably' in the first sentence, but then they
draw upon the WHO to justify that, so we'll buy it. The real trouble
begins with "Whatever the explanations for the observed data [...]" adn
goes right to the end, all of which is the authors' own value judgements
completely unsupported by any evidence whatsoever.
> and an LBC radio interview with one of its authors (very rare to
> hear the uncomfortable truth on LBC or on any other MSM):
>
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v = J x k b 2 y h d L i A
02:05 Interviewer: "You're saying that the vaccines, the evidence is
indicating a spike in all-cause mortality after vaccination?"
Fenton: "Yeah, it occurs shortly after the initial big rollout of the
vaccination in each of the different age groups. It's crucial to
separate out the different age groups [...]"
But the graph being discussed on screen doesn't seem to be doing that,
certainly at least not accurately. Its caption reads "Adjusted
non-Covid mortality rate in unvaccinated and unvaccinated versus %
vaccinated for age group 60-69 (weeks 1-38, 2021)" which is quite a lot
to discuss in itself ...
For a start, what does "unvaccinated and unvaccinated versus %
vaccinated" actually mean? It would seem to imply that there should be
two curves on the graph, labelled accordingly, but there are four, none
of which have the second label! They are:
Adjusted unvaccinated no-covid mortality rate
Adjusted vaccinated no-covid mortality rate
1 dose
2 dose
Secondly, they seem unaware that the the age group 60-69 were not done
as one group. The UK governments delivery plan is still displayed in
this government document from Spring 2021 ...
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963491/COVID-19_Response_-_Spring_2021.pdf
... and the relevant section, p156, Table 2, & later para 41, reads ...
5 All those 65-69 years of age 2.9M
6 All those aged 16 years to 64 years
with underlying health conditions 7.3M
7 all those aged 60-64 years of age 1.8M
... so how come their figures have apparently combined these three
groups into one?
Thirdly, the spikes in the graphs of each dose don't coincide with
"shortly after the initial big rollout of the vaccination" for this age
group, as claimed in the video, as I well know because I happened to be
in it at the time. The spike in the '1 dose' curve is about week 6-7,
about half way through February, but I didn't have my first dose until
the second week in March, and I am not alone, because from the para in
the above document we have:
"The Government’s ambition to offer everyone in JCVI cohorts 1 to 4 at
least one dose of the vaccine by 15 February was met two days early."
So the 70+ age range had just been been completed at the peak of the
spike, and 65-70 year olds were just beginning to be done, so the
maximum of this spike for the 60-69 age range, and therefore probably
the rest of it, can have *NOTHING* to do with their just having been
vaccinated, indeed *NOTHING* to do with their vaccination status at all.
Similarly the spike in the '2 dose' curve is about week 18, first week
in May, which again is not "shortly after the initial big rollout of the
vaccination", this time the second dose, for this age group. I didn't
receive mine until a week later, add another week or two for me to get
complications from it and ultimately die from them, and again the peak
is much too early.
So their analysis is riddled with mistakes, as might be expected from
the fact that it was it was done by a group of people whose political
motivations are already well known to override their scientific
impartiality.
No need to watch further!
> In a nutshell:
It's crap, like everything else you post.