Tote International H/C (Sat 28th July - Asc 3:10)
Will Cutler
the best handicaps of the season. It's a shame I'll be sitting by a pool
sipping a cool drink hoping that my trusty video has stirred into life and that
the Beeb haven't swopped channels to show tiddlywinks from Margate. Analysing
at the 5-day stage, however, gives me a chance to 'steal' any value before
jetting off but that is always tempered by the possibility of backing a
non-runner. Forget the King George - this is ONLY race on Saturday!
Here beginneth the tome….
In three runnings so far since 1998, the better class horses have taken the
prize with Jo Mell (rated 98), Russian Revival (rated 114) and Tillerman (rated
103) but this represents an hopelessly set of statistics. 41declared but at
least a dozen of these will be discarded and it seems likely that several of
the lightweights will be denied a run.
MOUNT ABU - John Gos's only entry and top weight by virtue of several
group/listed performances including a victory in a group 3 at Goodwood in '00
and more recently the listed John of Gaunt stakes at Haydock. He beat FATH that
day (reopposes here) and then chanced his arm in the July Cup finishing a
creditable 6th. One for the shortlist.
MISRAAH - another group/listed performer who has been running much better since
his style of racing was changed as he now drops right out and finishes with a
late rattle. This was seen to good effect over Sandown's stiff 5f (beating
Alegranza) and then arguably in the race of his life with a running-on 3rd to
Mozart in the July Cup. A reproduction of that effort would be good enough
here.
TILLERMAN - last season's victor off a 7 lb lower mark and is another who is
usually dropped out. Apparently found the slower conditions in the July Cup to
be a hindrance so Mrs P' will be praying that the authorities don't do the
over-watering. A must for the shortlist if conditions get really quick.
FATH - finished just behind MOUNT ABU in the John of Gaunt but was then
outclassed in the Cork and Orrery at Ascot before picking up a small conditions
race at Chester. This is his handicap debut after running in group and listed
races but I'm not convinced the stable are sure about his optimum requirements
- the 7f Chester course could hardly be more different than Ascot's.
NOW LOOK HERE - has been steadily climbing the ratings over the past couple of
seasons but has yet to win a handicap of any description. He finished down the
field in the race last year when tried in blinkers but that was off a lower
rating and it is hard to imagine him breaking his h/c duck in such a
competitive race.
SURPRISE ENCOUNTER - comfortable winner of the Hunt Cup but has apparently
picked up an injury and is not a certain runner. The Hunt Cup was a hat trick
of progressive handicap victories and who's to say he can't improve any
further. I have to reluctantly pass him over at this stage, however, due to his
uncertain participation.
DOCTOR SPIN - his last h/c victory came of a mark of 98 in May '00 when he beat
Sheer Viking at HQ but his current rating is perhaps a shade too high. He ran
well enough in the Wokingham when 5th to NICE ONE CLARE but was hiked up again
and would need to put in a career best to take this.
INDIAN SPARK - Jim Goldie's 7-y-o who took the Gosforth Park Cup on his latest
run after previously finishing 4th in the Wokingham. He was finishing strongly
that day and steps up to 7f after racing over the sprint distances for much of
his career. His Newcastle win was off 99 but he would need to improve again to
win off his higher mark and it's asking a lot of him to do such a thing at his
age.
NICE ONE CLARE - very genuine mare who is equally effective over a stiff 6 or 7
furlong track. She finished a close 2nd to DUKE OF MODENA over course and
distance last autumn when arguably unlucky in running and has since won this
season's Wokingham with a bit in hand. She was surprisingly made favourite for
the group 3 Criterion stakes last time and was comfortably beaten, but she is
far more effective in a big field of handicappers and could go close even off
her revised mark with Johnny Murtagh aboard again.
BLUE MOUNTAIN - finished a creditable 5th in the Wokingham on his penultimate
start but his last h/c victory was in a class C race at Goodwood off 88 last
July and he is well above that mark here.
HANGOVER SQUARE - a German raider with unfathomable form who was trained by
Richard Hannon in his formative years. He has competed in German group 3 races
on his latest starts but any form lines are tenuous at the very best.
BAARIDD - one of the handful of 3-y-o entries who finished well down the field
in the Cork and Orrery after a promising effort in a rated h/c at Haydock on
his seasonal reappearance. He finished behind ORIENTOR on both occasions and it
is questionable whether he can reverse form with his fellow 3-y-o.
DUKE OF MODENA - solid handicap performer from Tobe's stable who beat NICE ONE
CLARE over course and distance last September but has yet to hit form this
season. His latest run in the Bunbury Cup was a marked improvement on his Hunt
Cup performance but the pick of his form has been achieved on an easy surface
and it appears that he won't have such conditions to suit.
MUCHEA - Mick Channon's entire who has enough class B h/c form to warrant
attention. He has competed in bucketfuls of such races with placed efforts in
several including a 3rd to SURPRISE ENCOUNTER in the Hunt Cup last month. Could
go well again at a big price.
ORIENTOR - the most intriguing entry IMO who took the highly competitive Wm
Hill h/c on his penultimate run and now steps up to 7f. He won his maiden over
the distance albeit in a small Redcar race and the handicaps in which he has
competed have worked out well; another lively outsider with Richard Quinn
aboard.
BIG FUTURE - Mrs P's second entry who was a beaten favourite at Sandown behind
Desert Deer after previously chasing home SURPRISE ENCOUNTER at Ascot. He drops
back to 7f but whether this will suit him better is open to debate.
HURRICANE FLOYD - Jerry Nose's 3-y-o who makes his h/c debut after performing
with some credit at a higher level. The winner has franked the form of the
Jersey Stakes since but I think he might get mugged by one of the more
streetwise contestants.
HO LENG - hasn't won for almost 2 years and, although he has hardly deviated
off his mark for 3 seasons, his recent performances have been less than
encouraging. Might be entering the twilight of his career which is a shame for
a usually consistent animal.
AMICABLE - Barry Hills' entry who was highly tried in the Irish 2000 guineas
before reverting to a more suitable level with a couple of reasonable efforts
at Ascot and Newmarket off top weight. He now mixes it with his elders and
could be a surprise package now reverting to 7f.
ATAVUS - a must for the short list after his comfortable win in the Bunbury Cup
as he needs to make use of his mark before climbing further up the handicap.
It's difficult to crab his form this season with top notch efforts at
Newmarket, Goodwood and Ascot before his latest victory and another big run
looks likely.
CAMBERLEY - well fancied for both the Hunt and Bunbury Cups but was arguably
disappointing on both occasions. It could be that he has quickly reached his
optimum h/c mark and that he is going to struggle off 90+.
PEARTREE HOUSE - bounced back to form on his penultimate run at York but that
was in a class D h/c and he has since been beaten in a less valuable race at
Epsom. Opposing the Dandy Nicholls' stable is sometimes costly but on this
occasion it appears justified.
ZUCCHERO - did me a favour last week under a peach of a ride from Pat but this
is altogether a different kettle of fish. The highest rated horse in that
Ladbroke h/c was Calcutta off a mark of 94 and there are armfuls of higher
rated horses here at the decs stage. I would love him to run well but I fear he
might struggle against some of the top weights.
MOON PARADE - a complete unknown from South America and likely to remain that
way.
PROCEED WITH CARE - Mo' Jo's runner who won nicely on his reappearance at HQ
but has since disappointed at York and Goodwood. Unlikely to figure in the
shake up on the basis of that evidence.
AMARANTH - his latest Newcastle victory was his best for some time but all his
h/c wins have been in a lower grade and he was well beaten by NICE ONE CLARE in
the Wokingham; hard to make a case for him here.
ATLANTIC ACE - has been competing in lower grade h/c's with a modicum of
success but is likely to be running from out of the h/c if MOUNT ABU takes his
chance and it's stretching the imagination to see him beating all those above
him.
BOLD KING - disappointing efforts since finishing 2nd to the Lincoln winner
Nimello at Kempton and is undeniably better on an easy surface, conditions that
seem to be an unlikely scenario at present.
CANTINA - won a class B h/c at Chester last August off a mark of 88 (arguably a
career best effort) and a further victory at Ayr last month off 83 at least
shows she still possesses a certain amount of ability at the age of 7. Whether
she can trouble the younger brigade is a moot point and it would be a surprise
if she can prevail here.
HILLTOP WARNING - won back to back h/c's earlier in the season (beat ATAVUS at
Goodwood) and was a shade unlucky on his latest start at Newmarket behind
Premier Baron. The overall level of his form, however, is probably not strong
enough and his current mark looks a few pounds too high.
JEDEYDD - lightly raced 4-y-o from Ben Hanbury's stable who finished close
behind HILLTOP WARNING at HQ and was then just worn down in the closing stages
by Petit Marquis at Haydock. Would have little difficulty winning a class C
handicap and an encouraging run here should set him up nicely for a more
realistic campaign.
NAVIASKY - progressive as a 4-y-o when trained by Willie Muir performing best
of all at Goodwood when employing exaggerated waiting tactics. At the age of 6
he would be back to a more favourable mark if he wasn't running from out of the
handicap and that is ultimately likely to be his undoing.
ROYAL ARTIST - the blinkers almost worked the oracle at Newmarket but the
overall level of his form has been inconsistent since his dual h/c victories
last summer at Leicester and Ascot. He probably needs the trainer's
father-in-law to ride him to iron out his idiosyncrasies.
SLOANE - very average form after last season's maiden win at Newcastle and it
would be a shock if he were good enough to win this race.
SWIFT DISPERSAL - has finished nearer last than first on her latest starts and
cannot be considered on that basis.
TAYIF - won a class D h/c at York last month but has generally struggled in
this grade.
TRUE NIGHT - ran a cracker of a race behind ZUCCHERO at Newbury last weekend
but is unlikely to make the cut from so far down the handicap.
ZANAY - performed well on sand over the winter but has struggled on turf since.
NEEDWOOD BLADE - one of the better lightweights who finished 4th to ATAVUS in
the Bunbury Cup but could easily miss the cut even though he is rated in the
90's due to the weight for age allowance for 3-y-o's.
VELVET GLADE - lightly raced 3-y-o filly who won a class B h/c at Newmarket
earlier in the month but is another who is unlikely to be included.
POLAR KINGDOM - 3rd to ORIENTOR in the Wm Hill h/c but will not get into the
race.
CONCLUSION -
The final make up of the race hinges on some of the top weights defecting and
it's disappointing that the likes of TRUE NIGHT and NEEDWOOD BLADE are unlikely
to take part. Making a short list from 41 declarations is tenuous at the very
least but there are several solid favourites and a couple of interesting
outsiders to include:-
MISRAAH (represents the July Cup form and could be better over 7f)
NICE ONE CLARE (represents the Wokingham form and just as effective over this
trip)
ORIENTOR (arguably the best 3-y-o and odds of 25-1 look generous)
MOUNT ABU (Gos's top weight with a touch of class)
TILLERMAN (last season's victor needing fast ground)
ATAVUS (effective over the distance in this class of race)
AMICABLE (big price for a 'reputation' horse who has now found his level)
MUCHEA (very big price for a seasoned class B handicapper)
A short list of 8 isn't very clever so I'm open to ridicule here; if a gun was
put to my head I'd have to go for MISRAAH and NICE ONE CLARE as the best
'favourites' with ORIENTOR and MUCHEA as the best outsiders.
Good luck everyone.
Will
Batezee
Clare and Misraah..
Will,there are plenty of Bars with Racing Coverage in the Balearics and also
"Bookies" both "For Fun" and serious.Also,Internet Cafes for access to any
ACs you may have.
I was in Mallorca Royal Ascot time and had all three of the above ;-) .
Queens Logic pissed off the Bookie but made me and my favourite Bar Owner
very very very happy <GRIN>
Have a nice holiday Will and heres looking forward to your return and future
excellent Reviews
David
--"Damn Butterfly"
Will Cutler <in1...@wlv.ac.uk> wrote in message
KLeary91
>excellent Reviews
And so say all of us ! The draw could have an effect but if this is your idea
of beating Pricewise to ensure you get value, the short list ante post
is,according to todays RP
Surprise Encounter best 10/1 with Ladbrokes,
Nice One Clare best 12/1 with Chandler,
Orientor best 25/1 with Hills,Coral,Tote,etc
Mount Abu best 25/1 with several,
Tillerman best 14/1 with Surreys,
Atavus best 10/1 with Ladbrokes/Chandler
Amicable not shown (doubtful runner ?)
Muchea not shown (as above ?)
Kevin Leary
Ronan Garrahy
FYI, I walked the Ascot course last night as I live beside it. The ground is
rock and should ride fast. They were getting the watering equipment out this
morning as I was going to work. I would deescribe the whole course as
Firm-Hard as of last night.
Ronan
Will Cutler
Cheers Ronan - excellent info'. Looks as if the really fast ground
horses should be suited as long as they don't overdo it - the race
times from Friday's card should be interesting...
Will
Martin Sage
writes
Makes you wonder about Galileo by Sadlers Wells. Is he worth opposing
for small money in case he dislikes the ground.
--
Martin Sage
www.sagefarm.demon.co.uk
Hugh Taylor
Martin Sage wrote in message news:I9UaLtAZ...@sagefarm.demon.co.uk...
> Makes you wonder about Galileo by Sadlers Wells. Is he worth opposing
> for small money in case he dislikes the ground.
Galileo was being offered at 4-6 at Sandown tonight and not conspicuously
finding takers. I could see him drifting in the direction of evens on
saturday and certainly wouldn't advise anyone to pile in at the current 4-7
or so - I think you'll get better odds on Saturday if you want to back him.
Hugh Taylor