AYR SILVER CUP
Martin kilgariff
Last year the 9 year stats fluked TAYIF (12/1) as the only qualifier. If you use the same rules
this year then you get NOTHING DAUNTED, although he's apprentice ridden, and TAYIF wasn't.
Those rules were:
5yo who ran in a 7f Hcap on it's last run, who's run within the last month, and has finished
in the first 4 on it's last start.
My three against the field are:
Brave Burt 16/1
Blue Velvet 10/1
Nothing Daunted 16/1
Bet proportionally gives us around 7/2 against the field.
================= Silver Cup - 10 year stats =============
The following list are the last 10 winners of the Ayr Silver Cup, their LTO finishing position
the weight carried, and the age of the runners.
Horse Yr finLTO Weight Age
Tayif 01 4 134 5
Lady Boxer 00 10 128 4
Grey Kingdom 99 6 115 8
Royal Result 98 4 124 5
Perryston View 97 8 132 5
Cretan Gift 96 1 124 5
Keston Pond 95 1 117 5
Master of Passio 94 3 131 5
Sobering Thought 93 3 120 7
How's Yer Father 92 7 132 6
6 of the last 10 winners (60%), had finished in the first four on their last run. Of all the 282 runners
in the race over the last ten years only 88 (31%) had finished placed on their last start. This clearly
indicated that it's a vary favourable stat, and a good last run is a strong indicator.
A 3yo has never won the race, but 5yo's has won 6 of the last 10 contests (60%) from 57/282 (20%) of the runners.
Being ridden by a apprentice jockey is a disadvantage ( only 10% win from 20% runners), but D. Mernagh rode
Grey Kingdom to victory in 1999 (2nd in 1998), and there have been two other apprentice ridden seconds,
Almasi (Jo Hunnam) 1997, and Diet (J. Marshall) 1992.
All winners had run within the last 32 days, so proven fitness is important
An interesting stat is that 6 of the last 10 winners (55%), contested 7 furlongs races on their last start,
where as just 54 of all the runners (19%) had run over 7f on their last start. This stat isn't repeated in
the Gold Cup proper, and may indicate that at this slightly lower level, in a strongly runs race, it's
stamina rather than class that win the day.
So if we limit selections to 5yo who were placed on their last start.
Then over the last 10 years we would have had 5 winners from 9 races (56%) (SP's 20/1, 10/1, 10/1, 12/1, 12/1 )
with just 19 selections from a total 282 runners (8%) - 1993 had no qualifiers.
The following list the number of qualifiers there were each year (* denotes winning year) -
92 (1), 94* (2), 95* (4), 96* (1), 97 (4), 98* (2), 99 (2), 00 (1), 01* (2)
This year there are 6 qualifiers, which is the most ever. This won't guarantee anything (very few things do),
since in 1997 there were 4 qualifiers, and the best they could manage between them was a 2nd with Almasi at 10/1,
so numbers aren't everything.
Here are the qualifiers:
Peruvian Chief 14/1
Gdansk 25/1
Brave Burt 16/1
Currency 14/1
Blue Velvet 12/1
Nothing Daunted 16/1
Blue Velvet won yesterday, and Grey Kingdom also ran the day before his victory in
1999, although it was in the 7f race rather than the 5f race, and he didn't win it.
If you're interested in the LTO 7f rule, then NOTHING DAUNTED is the only runner from
the above list who ran over 7f on it's last start.
Of the above 6 I'll throw out Gdansk because it's never won on anything faster than GS, and I feel
the ground must be drying out, which will be against him. Currency has never won on anything
slower than GF, and I can't see it drying that much over night. Peruvian Chief has run some good
races on turf, but has still never won away from the AW, and has been creeping up the handicap.
So my three against the field are:
Brave Burt 14/1
Blue Velvet 10/1
Nothing Daunted 16/1
Bet proportionally gives us around 7/2 against the field.
MartinK
http://www.patternform.co.uk
Will Cutler
>
>So my three against the field are:
>Brave Burt 14/1
>Blue Velvet 10/1
>Nothing Daunted 16/1
>
>Bet proportionally gives us around 7/2 against the field.
>
>MartinK
>
Nice one Martin, these stats are a useful tool although I personally
tend to rely more on other factors. A 28 runner class B h/c is manna
from heaven for me although 'reserve' type races by their very
nature tend not to be of true class B standard (top weight rated only 86).
I shall be going in mob-handed as usual with a shortlist of 6:
PERUVIAN CHIEF - has generally performed creditably at or around his
current mark although surprisingly he is still a turf h/c virgin. A
reproduction of his recent York effort behind Needwood Blade in a rated
h/c should take him close.
AWAKE - one of 6 Dandy runners who was rated in the high 90s some 2
year's ago and is now languishing in the 80s. Won a valuable Irish h/c
in July and ran a solid race behind Bond Boy in the Stewards' Cup.
TAYIF - last year's winner running off a 2lb lower mark for the
aforementioned Mr Nicholls. Ran a couple of decent races in class B
company at Gooders and in the Gt St Wilf', and was outpaced over 5f
at Haydock lto. Major chance.
LORD PROTECTOR - the perennial bridesmaid who invariably finds
trouble in running but has a big h/c in him if things fall his way.
Reverts to 6f (usually campaigned over 7) so a breathtaking pace
will play into his hands (hoofs?).
ARMAGNAC - an experienced 4-y-o who can usually be guaranteed to run
a solid race. Just touched off by Orientor in last season's Wm Hill
Trophy h/c at York, and has been placed on numerous occasions since
then. His penultimate run in the Gt St Wilf' when 2l 7th to
Deceitful looked a decent effort.
DOCTOR SPIN - Uncle Mick's charge has been out of sorts of late, but
he was rated over the ton last year when trained by RFJ-H and is now
on his lowest ever mark of 84. I wonder if those canny Easterby's
are able to exploit this?
Good luck everyone
Cheers
Will
Martin kilgariff
>So if we limit selections to 5yo who were placed on their last start.
>Then over the last 10 years we would have had 5 winners from 9 races (56%) (SP's 20/1, 10/1, 10/1, 12/1, 12/1 )
>with just 19 selections from a total 282 runners (8%) - 1993 had no qualifiers.
>
>The following list the number of qualifiers there were each year (* denotes winning year) -
>
>92 (1), 94* (2), 95* (4), 96* (1), 97 (4), 98* (2), 99 (2), 00 (1), 01* (2)
>
>This year there are 6 qualifiers, which is the most ever. This won't guarantee anything (very few things do),
>since in 1997 there were 4 qualifiers, and the best they could manage between them was a 2nd with Almasi at 10/1,
>so numbers aren't everything.
>
>Here are the qualifiers:
>
>Peruvian Chief 14/1
>Gdansk 25/1
>Brave Burt 16/1
>Currency 14/1
>Blue Velvet 12/1
>Nothing Daunted 16/1
>
The Layers on Betfair are collectively betting to 103-106% in the Ayr Silver Cup.
The six runners which I identified earlier are now trading at:
Peruvian Chief 16/1 (£348 traded at 19/1)
Gdansk 32/1 (£146 traded at 36/1)
Brave Burt 20/1 (£60 traded at 30/1)
Currency 22/1 (£36 traded at 24/1)
Blue Velvet 11/1 (£474 traded at 14/1)
Nothing Daunted 28/1 (£233 traded at 30/1)
Much better than could ever have been expected prior to the advent of the exchanges.
This means that for an event which over the last 10 years has occurred 56% of the time
(5 wins from 9 qualifying years), and therefore 4/5 would be a fair price, you can get
a little over 9/4 by betting proportionally (dutching) at the above odds
Is this one case where betting 6 runners against the field represents value?
MartinK
http://www.patternform.co.uk
JohnBickerstaffe
Will Cutler <W.Cu...@wlv.ac.uk>
> PERUVIAN CHIEF - A
> reproduction of his recent York effort behind Needwood Blade in a rated
> h/c should take him close.
I like this one too, he had to carry 5lb ow in that race, but with a 7lb
claimer. So off his correct weight today he could be the one. Glad i didn't
take the 33s now for the Gold Cup tomorrow.
j.
Firebeast
Here's some bits of my notes I've been working through this morning and my
own not-so-short-list.
I haven't got time or inclination to sort it all out and make it more
presentable, but you should get the gist.
-
Lord Protector
First time at this distance and looks to have been screaming out for the
drop in trip.
Good jockey booking.
Acts on ground.
Potentially very good mark considering he’s unexposed at this trip.
If he sees it out, he must have a major chance.
Course experince.
-
Gdansk
Big Price, but could run well.
Will like the ground. Latest runs indicate on way back.
Whether he’s up to winning this is another thing. BIG price could be worth
taking for place.
-
Kingscross
Ground is the key. Ideally needs some cut.
Question mark over the class of the race.
Again, big price could make it worth a dabble for place.
-
Tayif
Last four runs hint at return to form and represent a good level.
Sure last run over a furlong less was to keep mark down for this race. Looks
as though he’s been plotted for something like this. Won this last year off
a 2lb higher mark. 5lb claimer on board this time.
Major chance.
-
Currnecy
Running right into form. Question mark over ground.
Runs well on undulating course, decent course form.
Question mark about class.
Could go well at big price. (Would want decent price)
-
Night Runner
Unexposed could run well at this distance on this ground.
Good progress this year. Potentially more improvement to come.
Still has bit to find in this company though, so a good price would need to
be had.
-
Esatto
Improving sort, unexposed at this distance. Model of consistency all season.
Step up in class.
Improved 20lb through season.
Question over this class.
-
There's 7 of the buggers there and I don't know yet if I'll bet them all or
not. Depends on prices really.
I've taken some of those early prices on BF that Martin mentioned and I'm
waiting for others.
I narrowed that bugger down to 7 yesterday though and ended up backing all b
ut two of my list, one of those two happened to be Blue Velvet...DOH!
-
I'll see how it goes today.
-
Good luck anyway...
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Firebeast
Must admit I thought this horse had peaked, and couldn't see him winning
over this extra furlong.
He's improved again, along with the runner up and both are running VERY well
at the moment.
That was a bit expensive and painful for me.
Especially as they were amongst the last eliminated from my list.
Michael Dods and Ken Ivory have had the spot on me for a few years now, and
it seems Ken Ivory's son is carrying that tradition on.
Back to the drawing board.
Will Cutler
fire...@firebeast.worldonline.co.uk says...
>
>John O' Groats
>
>Must admit I thought this horse had peaked, and couldn't see him winning
>over this extra furlong.
>He's improved again, along with the runner up and both are running VERY well
>at the moment.
>
JOG - decent enough form of late but I thought he'd be outclassed;
maybe I'll give these 'reserve' races a miss as there's no way
this should be graded as a class B race.
Will