dosage
flik
dosages for the runners in the derby on sat, in mordin's betting for a
living he reckons he can narrow the possible winners down to a small
percentage of the field using this method, and missed out on the winner only
once in the last twenty years.
any dosage experts out there ?
Mark
NH-anorak
the weekender tomorrow.
IMO he has changed the rules a number of times on the dosage to
fit the Derby winner.
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davey_brown
> the weekender tomorrow.
>
> IMO he has changed the rules a number of times on the dosage to
> fit the Derby winner.
The only problem I have with this system is that (these days) every horse in
the race seems to "fit the bill", looking at this post, you could probably
only rule out Best of the Bests of the top 10 in the betting !!!!!!!! (I
think this happened when Sadlers Wells was accepted as a Chef de Race).
Here's the post made by Steve Miller on the Channel4 Web Forum, reproduced
in full here (I claim no credit for this, this is all Steve Millers work).
Derby 2000 Dosage analysis (at the forfeit stage)
Northern Dancer dominant
The following are the past 11 winners of the Derby, arranged from lowest
Dosage Index (most stamina) to the highest DI (least stamina):
Generous (Caerleon)DP 4-1-8-9-0 = 22 DI = 0.69 CD = 0.00
Shaamit (Mtoto)DP 10-4-4-10-8 = 36 DI = 0.80 CD = - -0.06
Quest For Fame (Rainbow Quest)DP 9-0-11-4-4 = 28 DI = 1.07 CD = +0.21
Lammtarra (Nijinsky)DP 12-1-21-8-2 = 44 DI = 1.15 CD = +0.30
Nashwan (Blushing Groom)DP 15-0-9-4-6 = 34 DI = 1.34 CD = +0.41
High-Rise (High Estate)DP 4-1-4-3-0 = 12 DI = 1.40 CD = +0.50
Oath (Fairy King)DP 5-3-10-0-2 = 20 DI = 1.86 CD = +0.45
Commander In Chief (Dancing Brave)DP 9-4-27-0-0 = 40 DI = 1.96 CD = +0.55
Dr Devious (Ahonoora)DP 4-2-7-0-1 = 14 DI = 2.11 CD = +0.57
Benny The Dip (Silver Hawk)DP 9-9-18-0-0 = 36 DI = 3.00 CD = +0.75
Erhaab (Chief's Crown)DP 7-13-14-0-0 = 34 DI = 3.86 CD = +0.79
From the above we can see that a typical Derby winner has a Dosage index of
between about 0.70 and 2.00 and a centre of distribution ranging from around
zero (in Shammit's case slightly negative) to about +0.50. Only three fail
to score in their stamina wing (Solid and Professional categories), but
those three all score much higher than average (and in proportion to their
overall profiles) in their middle Classic category. So, if we ignore the
bottom two in the table as anomalies, we can say with a fair amount of
accuracy that for a horse to win the Derby it is likely to have a Dosage
index of between 0.70 and 2.00, a CD of between zero and +0.5, and should
either score in the stamina wing of its pedigree, or highly in the middle
Classic category, or both.
We know from analysis of other 12-furlong Group 1 races such as the Irish
Derby - in which Montjeu was a virtual blueprint - that winners of such
races tend to conform to the 'ideal' of a Dosage index of around 1.00 and a
centre of distribution of zero (0.00) - representing a perfect balance of
speed and stamina.
Let us try to match up these criteria to a selection this year's
protagonists at the forfeit stage.
Beat Hollow (Sadler's Wells)DP 7-2-25-12-0 = 46 DI = 0.88 CD = +0.09
Bien Entendu (Hernando)DP 4-0-11-4-1 = 20 DI = 0.90 CD = +0.10
Saddlers' Quest (Saddlers' Hall)DP 6-0-11-5-2 = 24 DI = 0.92 CD = +0.13
Bach (Caerleon) DP 7-5-13-13-0 = 38 DI = 0.95 CD = +0.16
Wellbeing (Sadler's Wells)DP 6-4-26-10-0 = 46 DI = 1.00 CD = +0.13
Barathea Guest (Barathea)DP 7-2-9-6-2 = 26 DI = 1.08 CD = +0.23
Apollo Victoria (Sadler's Wells)DP 10-2-26-8-0 = 46 DI = 1.19 CD = +0.30
Aristotle (Sadler's Wells)DP 8-4-20-8-0 = 40 DI = 1.22 CD = +0.30
Sakhee (Bahri)DP 7-7-18-6-2 = 40 DI = 1.35 CD = +0.28
Inchlonaig (Nashwan)DP 8-0-7-3-2 = 20 DI = 1.35 CD = +0.45
Shakespeare (Rainbow Quest)DP 9-2-13-2-4 = 30 DI = 1.40 CD = +0.33
Kingsclere (Fairy King) DP 6-2-18-2-0 = 12 DI = 1.55 CD = +0.43
Sinndar (Grand Lodge)DP 6-5-9-4-0 = 24 DI = 1.82 CD = +0.54
Ciro (Woodman)DP 11-7-20-4-0 = 42 DI = 2.00 CD = +0.60
King's Best (Kingmambo) DP 9-2-13-2-0 = 26 DI = 2.06 CD = +0.69
Hataab (Woodman)DP 10-3-15-2-0 = 30 DI = 2.16 CD = +0.70
Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat)DP 6-3-13-0-0 = 22 DI = 2.38 CD = +0.68
Best Of The Bests (Machiavellian)DP 12-3-12-1-0 = 28 DI = 3.00 CD = +0.93
The first thing that strikes us about this selection is that all of the top
eight in the table are descended from Northern Dancer and six of the eight
from Sadler's Wells (Bach being by Caerleon, a son of Nijinsky by Northern
Dancer and Bien Entendu being by Niniski, another son of Nijinsky). Northern
Dancer is also a predecessor of three more lower down the table (Kingsclere,
Sinndar and Giant's Causeway). Therefore, 11 of the 18 can be traced to
Northern Dancer in their top-line. In addition to these 11, three more can
be traced back to Northern Dancer's grandsire Nearco in their top-line, and
all of them go back to Nearco's grandsire Phalaris (1913 - ironically a
Brilliant chef-de-race).
So this year's Derby should certainly be kept in the family (of Northern
Dancer).
We can immediately rule out the bottom two (Giant's Causeway and Best Of The
Bests) who have virtually no chance in this race. These two should have a
10-furlong maximum upper limit and may prove best at a mile plus. They must
be an Erhaab (who was a bit of a freak) to defy the figures. King's Best and
Hataab also look up against it and these two should prove best at around 10
furlongs. We can therefore discard these four horses, two of which are very
prominent in the ante-post market.
The top half-a-dozen in the table have particularly good profiles, while the
next eight (down to Ciro) all have more than satisfactory figures. Saddler's
Quest has the breeding profile to win but despite remaining unbeaten from
three starts at two and three is probably not quite top class.
The four Sadler's Wells colts (Beat Hollow, Wellbeing, Apollo Victoria and
Aristotle) all look very well placed. In The Wings is proving Sadler's Wells
's best stallion son but his two representatives Air Marshall and Kutub are
not included at the forfeit stage.
Both Sinndar and Ciro should prove good yardsticks, but a fast run race
would probably draw the sting from their finishing kicks. Of the remainder
the Bahri colt Sakhee looks very interesting. His dam (Thawakib) is a Sadler
's Wells mare and his also derives Classic speed and stamina from Ribot in
his female line. It would also be wrong to underestimate the chances of the
Fairy King colt Kingsclere, after all Oath (also by Fairy King) won the race
only last year. The Henry Cecil-trained Hernando colt, Bien Entendu, looks a
horse of tremendous promise from his sole racecourse appearance at Newmarket
earlier this season and looks certain to stay having stamina influences on
both sides of his pedigree.
Conclusion:
However, I can't get away from the superbly bred BEAT HOLLOW, by Sadler's
Wells out of Irish Oaks winner Wemyss Bight (a Dancing Brave mare). He looks
to have it all, he will outstay the others and looks - like that other
Sadler's Wells colt Montjeu - to have a high cruising speed to boot. Given a
little cut, Sakhee, Aristotle, Wellbeing (and/or Bien Entendu) and
Kingsclere should fight out the places particularly in a fast run race where
stamina (more so than in 12-furlong races run elsewhere) will be paramount.
STEVE MILLER
John L
davey_brown wrote in message
<063%4.120$oS5....@news6-win.server.ntlworld.com>...
>Here's the post made by Steve Miller on the Channel4 Web Forum, reproduced
>in full here (I claim no credit for this, this is all Steve Millers work).
>
>Derby 2000 Dosage analysis (at the forfeit stage)
>
>Northern Dancer dominant
>
>The following are the past 11 winners of the Derby, arranged from lowest
>Dosage Index (most stamina) to the highest DI (least stamina):
>
>Generous (Caerleon)DP 4-1-8-9-0 = 22 DI = 0.69 CD = 0.00
>Shaamit (Mtoto)DP 10-4-4-10-8 = 36 DI = 0.80 CD = - -0.06
>Quest For Fame (Rainbow Quest)DP 9-0-11-4-4 = 28 DI = 1.07 CD = +0.21
>Lammtarra (Nijinsky)DP 12-1-21-8-2 = 44 DI = 1.15 CD = +0.30
>Nashwan (Blushing Groom)DP 15-0-9-4-6 = 34 DI = 1.34 CD = +0.41
>High-Rise (High Estate)DP 4-1-4-3-0 = 12 DI = 1.40 CD = +0.50
>Oath (Fairy King)DP 5-3-10-0-2 = 20 DI = 1.86 CD = +0.45
>Commander In Chief (Dancing Brave)DP 9-4-27-0-0 = 40 DI = 1.96 CD = +0.55
>Dr Devious (Ahonoora)DP 4-2-7-0-1 = 14 DI = 2.11 CD = +0.57
>Benny The Dip (Silver Hawk)DP 9-9-18-0-0 = 36 DI = 3.00 CD = +0.75
>Erhaab (Chief's Crown)DP 7-13-14-0-0 = 34 DI = 3.86 CD = +0.79
>
>Let us try to match up these criteria to a selection this year's
>protagonists at the forfeit stage.
>
>Beat Hollow (Sadler's Wells)DP 7-2-25-12-0 = 46 DI = 0.88 CD = +0.09
>Bien Entendu (Hernando)DP 4-0-11-4-1 = 20 DI = 0.90 CD = +0.10
>Saddlers' Quest (Saddlers' Hall)DP 6-0-11-5-2 = 24 DI = 0.92 CD = +0.13
>Bach (Caerleon) DP 7-5-13-13-0 = 38 DI = 0.95 CD = +0.16
>Wellbeing (Sadler's Wells)DP 6-4-26-10-0 = 46 DI = 1.00 CD = +0.13
>Barathea Guest (Barathea)DP 7-2-9-6-2 = 26 DI = 1.08 CD = +0.23
>Apollo Victoria (Sadler's Wells)DP 10-2-26-8-0 = 46 DI = 1.19 CD = +0.30
>Aristotle (Sadler's Wells)DP 8-4-20-8-0 = 40 DI = 1.22 CD = +0.30
>Sakhee (Bahri)DP 7-7-18-6-2 = 40 DI = 1.35 CD = +0.28
>Inchlonaig (Nashwan)DP 8-0-7-3-2 = 20 DI = 1.35 CD = +0.45
>Shakespeare (Rainbow Quest)DP 9-2-13-2-4 = 30 DI = 1.40 CD = +0.33
>Kingsclere (Fairy King) DP 6-2-18-2-0 = 12 DI = 1.55 CD = +0.43
>Sinndar (Grand Lodge)DP 6-5-9-4-0 = 24 DI = 1.82 CD = +0.54
>Ciro (Woodman)DP 11-7-20-4-0 = 42 DI = 2.00 CD = +0.60
>King's Best (Kingmambo) DP 9-2-13-2-0 = 26 DI = 2.06 CD = +0.69
>Hataab (Woodman)DP 10-3-15-2-0 = 30 DI = 2.16 CD = +0.70
>Giant's Causeway (Storm Cat)DP 6-3-13-0-0 = 22 DI = 2.38 CD = +0.68
>Best Of The Bests (Machiavellian)DP 12-3-12-1-0 = 28 DI = 3.00 CD = +0.93
>
[ stuff snipped from here ]
>We can immediately rule out the bottom two (Giant's Causeway and Best Of
The
>Bests) who have virtually no chance in this race. These two should have a
>10-furlong maximum upper limit and may prove best at a mile plus. They must
>be an Erhaab (who was a bit of a freak) to defy the figures. King's Best
and
>Hataab also look up against it and these two should prove best at around 10
>furlongs. We can therefore discard these four horses, two of which are very
>prominent in the ante-post market.
>
The criteria he uses to lose King's Best and Best of the Bests would rule
out
Erhaab, Benny the Dip, Dr Devious and Commander in Chief, with
Oath and High-Rise as marginal cases. I'm not impressed.
John.