Tipsters, Daily Mail, Racing Information Database etc.
The Avenger
Back in 1995 I began compiling some notes on tipster services. With
threads on tipsters and tipster monitors / proofers cropping up on
this list from time to time, I thought potential subscribers might be
interested to learn of some of my experiences.
Some recent updates have been added. A few years ago I was rather more
naive, and did not know that Racing Information Database (RID) is the
tipster monitoring / proofing service equivalent of Pravda. Having RID
protect punters against tipster ripoffs is like having a pensions watchdog
comprising Bob Maxwell to prevent embezzlement, Mohammed ("al-") Fayed to
shield against dishonesty in advertising, Genghis Khan to discourage
in-fighting amongst the committee members, and Dracula to collect for
national blood banks should Khan fail in his (nominated) task.
I can confirm that I have found Smart-proof to provide an accurate guide
to tipster performance. There are some good tipsters -- they tend to
quietly get on with tipping as opposed to the losing tipsters' policy of
splattering the racing press with large colour ads in order to counteract
the mass exodus of disappointed clientele. It would not be appropriate to
name winning tipster services on a newsgroup. When certain bets are
overpriced and underbet, that is for the smart investor to know and the
bookie to discover after the event.
So, most of what follows is from my 1995 perspective, of assuming the RID
charts to be genuine. Some of the featured tipsters are no longer around,
at least, under the names they were using five years ago. Others have
survived (with tipping competence playing second fiddle to spin doctoring).
Updates are added, as indicated...
Racing Tipster Services
I have subscribed to a number of services, and concluded that the vast
majority are quite useless. (Although there are the odd few, little-known,
winning services.) In several cases, I could beat tipsters that allegedly
had a good long term performance - as shown in the Racing Information
Database charts - just by looking at recent form in the Racing Post. Most
services that I tried were unable to produce a profit from selective
advices.
Winning Line, The:
These appear to have a good long term record according to RID, but had a
very poor run during the summer, just as I subscribed. The first twelve
advices all lost. The 42 selections going up to 1st October showed 0.917
pts pre-tax profit to level stakes, or 6.187 pts to recommended stakes.
Their 1 pt. bets were profitable, 1/2 and 1/4 pts were best avoided like
the plague. The poor Flat results may well have been a consequence of
Stephen Stuart's temporarily restricted input, following heart surgery,
and his substitution by Patrick Veitch, who turned out to be about as
good as picking winners as governments are after having commandeered other
people's money to do it with.
If Stuart is fit and has retained his skills the W.L. may perform well.
But they are very expensive, and I look for evidence of recent winning form
as well as long term profitability in a racing service. OK for rich
gamblers, but there are better services which are more reasonably priced,
and it is probably safer to wait and see how the W.L. do over the winter.
1998 update: I resubscribed to the service this summer, and it was a
disaster. My losses from Winning Line advices exceeded those from any
other tipster. Clearly, there was no "long term profitability", and The
Winning Line are a main paymaster of Racing Information Database, the
unscrupulous Sheffield-based outfit which operates from an accommodation
address and is run by scamster Kevin Botham (following the previous
proprietor's conviction at the Crown Court on multiple counts of fraud).
Isiris Racing:
According to RID this service seemed to be doing well up to about July
1995. But it certainly went into a serious decline. I started with them
in mid-August, and it was soon quite apparent that the "Recommendations"
were useless. The "Full Bets" went slightly ahead at first; I backed them
for a while, but by October they proved to be rather mediocre. Isiris is
just another losing service dressed up as a winning one with crafty
copywriting. Their advertisements are not only misleading, but also
factually incorrect.
For example, they claim a winner one day, and claim not to have had other
bets on other days when in fact their advices lost. They tip 3 horses in a
6-runner race, and imply that the 16-1 (adv.) winner was the sole bet
rather than split stakes on two losers as well, and don't mention that this
profit is soon wiped out with a normal week's losses. They appear to have
a high strike rate on Full Bets, but they count placed each way bets at 3-1
and 5-2 as "winners". They even go to extraordinary lengths to massage the
figures, e.g. one day Isiris actually gave two minimum price stipulations
for one of their Full Bets. We were told to try to take 6-1 or better, but
the bet would be subject to a minimum of 9-2 on any SIS show, and if it was
under 9-2 it would be no bet. It opened at 11-2 so I backed it, and it
shortened. After it lost, Isiris claimed that the bet was "void" as it
hadn't reached 6-1. Alas, my bookie was unaware of this, and I'll bet
Isiris would have counted the bet as legitimate if it had won at 11-2!
Even a winning service might be expected to have a losing month now and
again, but Isiris showed a loss over a four month period. Not recommended.
Universal Racing:
According to RID these had made a very good L.S.P. over the year, with a
strike rate of nearly 50%. When I joined them, an unexpected losing run
suddenly began, with 12 consecutive losers. (Coincidentally, the same
number of consecutive losers that I had when starting backing Winning Line
advices in July.) The excuse of B. Halliburton, who runs Universal Racing,
was that he had been persuaded to follow someone else's system which was no
good, and when he later started giving winners this was because he had
reverted to his own method. These winners started to dry up, and somehow
during September the horses I'd been advised hadn't performed as well as
RID figures showed. I'd been given all the losers, but apparently had
missed out on three winners.
Universal Racing were showing a slight loss after three and a half months.
Not recommended.
1998 update: Universal Racing, run by B. Halliburton, used to be
connected with another losing service - The Clevelander (G L Mason).
Apparently these two gentlemen fell out after recognising the shortcomings
of each other's system. I also subscribed to The Clevelander in 98 on the
strength of an excellent showing in RID charts, and this service turned
out to be just as useless as Universal Racing.
M & H Racing:
Not listed in RID. This service looked reasonable according to their
adverts and information package with a list of "proofed" results, but it
soon became obvious that their selections were very poor indeed. Even
including the better performing "Callback" bets which were information
from a Northern bookmaker, the total still gave a pre-tax loss of 24% on
turnover. This is even worse than blindly picking out 4th favourites;
admittedly it is marginally better than throwing darts at the racecard.
M & H were then reduced to saying in their adverts how good they were at
giving winners on a Monday - the other days must have lost nearer 42%.
One to steer clear of.
Tom Adams Racing:
Their adverts and letters claimed level stake profits of around thirty
points over the last four weeks. The guy running this was using a London
accommodation address, and an 0956 personal phone number. He was obviously
based in Bristol, since that was where all the mail came from, but told me
that he was in the London offices. When I asked him why there was a
Bristol postmark if his offices were in London, he replied, "We have a
member of staff who lives in Bristol, commutes to the West End of London
and sometimes takes the mail home to post." Well, the first assertion was
true, but surely no one would take the latter two claims seriously!
Tom Adams Racing did get quite a reasonable strike rate, with 10 winners
from 27 selections in two months. There was a pre-tax level stake profit
of 1.05 pts, or 3.9% of turnover. The monthly subscription was only ś30,
but I don't think any subscriber would have managed to cover this cost.
Tom Adams did not stay around for long. Not recommended.
Charles Lawson:
Utter rubbish. In his literature he boasted that he made 68 points L.S.P.
last season, relied on gambling for a living, and couldn't afford to back
short-priced favourites. The last two points were true, but "Lawson"
clearly didn't do any gambling himself. Two of his advices had S.P.s of
4-7 and 4-6, and finished 2nd!
Don't touch with the proverbial bargepole. See below for more details.
Bill Clarke:
Billed as a "National Hunt specialist" (at least, during the N.H. season).
His adverts and claims of "superb" profits turned out to be hyperbole.
His system was simply to tip short-priced favourites rather than look for
value. It soon became pretty obvious that "Charles Lawson" (see above)
and Bill Clarke are the same person. "Lawson" gives a Staffordshire
address, but letters are postmarked Dorset & S.W. Hants which is Clarke's
address. The similarities were too great to be coincidental, e.g. content
of letters with just a few words transposed, style, handwriting, voice on
the telephone, the 3 1/2 x 6 manilla envelopes, even the comma that should
be an oblique in "Dear Sir,Madam," in both welcome letters.
I then heard on one of the pirate tipsters' lines the reading out of what
was purportedly a letter from one of Bill Clarke's disgruntled clients.
Apparently this elderly gentleman had telephoned Bill Clarke and pointed
out that most racing advisors ran a number of services, so that whenever
one service was in a losing run clients would be pestered with offers to
join the other (normally more expensive) service. Bill Clarke had replied
that, yes, the other advisors often did this, but he didn't operate that
way. This client then paid Clarke ś75 for his Private Members service.
After 17 advices, only three of them had won (at 6-5, 11-10 and 7-2). He
then received offers for Clarke's Sterling service at ś200. I joined
Clarke's National Hunt Super Bet service which gave 7 winners from 22 bets
at prices of 10-11, 5-4, 7-2, 6-4, 6-4, 4-6 and 4-5, and was then bombarded
with offers every week for his Master Coups service at ś225 and upwards.
His latest offer is for his "Profit Plus" all-weather service.
Avoid this one. Favourites backers would be returned a higher proportion
of their outlay, and for free.
Steve Lewis (now known as Steve Lewis Hamilton):
Claims to be a Northern pro gambler. He had a good consistent record in
RID, and the advices I got from him were quite profitable at the outset.
He had a very good run in early November, the performance then tapered
off and he has been stuck in a terrible losing run for the last few weeks,
which, he claims, is his worst run for 20 months. He recommends
operating with a 60 points bank from the start of each month, and
advocates differential staking, with each bet specified as so many units,
normally between 2 and 9, dependent on his minimum price stipulation.
However, this bank would have crashed following Monday (18th)'s loser,
with a loss of 69 points for December so far. It looks as though 100
units is more realistic.
December 1995 Update: Since I started picking my own selections at the
start of December, Steve Lewis has given one winner from 18 bets. In
almost all cases I opposed the Lewis bet; he beat me once with the 5-2
winner, and I beat him eight times with winners at 12-1, 5-1, 5-1, 9-4,
5-1, 7-4, 9-2 and 11-8. (In three races I gave two selections, but for
those 18 races selected by Steve Lewis, my selections showed a level
stake profit of 22.875 points whereas the Lewis bets lost 14.5 points.)
1996 Update: By the time I'd given up even monitoring the Steve Lewis
line, he'd given 5 winners from the last 57 selections. With a loss of
234 recommended units over the previous 57, anyone who'd begun at the
start of this losing run would have had their recommended (by Steve Lewis)
bank of 60 units bust about four times over! I had previously run some
simulations which suggested that the odds against a 100 points bank
getting bust was about 66/1. This was a flawed conclusion based on flawed,
fabricated figures in RID tables.
The Profitmakers:
I have no firsthand experience of this outfit, but have heard that it is a
rip-off. Apparently a number of subscribers complained to them about large
losses incurred from following the selections, and were told that if they
couldn't stand the heat they shouldn't be playing with fire! Not
recommended.
Pirate Tipsters (and tales of intrigue):
Examples of pirates are Poundstretcher Systems (Peter Morris) of Worksop,
and Keith Nicholson of Halifax.
I suspect that it would have been very hard to prove any illegality under
copyright, in the case of someone who happened to tip some of the same
horses that were advised by professional services. It is rather more
blatant when pirates name their sources in their literature, attempting to
capitalise on the original tipster's brand-name. Some such as Nicholson
and Morris appear to thrive on this strategy, and I have even found it
quite useful to listen to Nicholson's National rate line on 0374 505401
where he gives the selections of Steve Lewis, Isiris, Winning Line,
Premier, Interform, Gilt Edge Investments, The Northerner (the only one
currently in form), and others.
Many of the 0374 racing lines are found on 0374 505xxx where xxx is either
the lower 400's or upper 100's, so it wasn't too difficult for me to
discover the 505401 number. By comparing Keith Nicholson's advices with
those of the firms that I had already subscribed to, I found that he did
give out the correct horses even if full details such as minimum price
stipulations were occasionally omitted. The Nicholson number changes in
the New Year, although he is giving the new number free to members of the
Press and existing subscribers. As he admits, most of the services have
performed poorly, and he seems to enjoy using his broadcasts as an
opportunity to lambast various tipsters and editors / advertisements
managers of the racing Press. Nicholson spins some amazing webs of
intrigue. He claims for instance that The Winning Line, Steve Lewis, and
David James (who he says is the same as "Roy David") are all run by Walford
Estates Ltd, and that Tony Henderson / Evans who runs Gilt Edge is the
Winning Line's "recruiting officer" who also takes the credit cards for
David James. He says that the Bristol telephone number given in David
James' adverts is the number of "Val", the ex-secretary of David Lyons, a
member of the Sporting Life Weekender reporting team, and that the office
is that of Tony Evans / Tony Henderson. He says that Interform (Richard
Graham) is run by Premier Racing (they are all Petworth numbers). After
having a go at the Sporting Life's Adverts Manager Richardson, he now
accepts that Richardson is trying to clean up the mess left by James
Sollis who has since moved to the equivalent position at the Racing Post,
Sollis being still in cahoots with Bill Clarke, Isiris, etc.
Many of Nicholson's claims are doubtless true, and certainly James Sollis
is either an incompetent buffoon or is as corrupt as Nicholson claims,
judging by the misleading ads and stated policy of tipsters being required
to proof selections in advance of racing. I suspect it was Nicholson,
though, who used to put out spoof RID-type "newsletters" such as the
Punter's Protection Council which praised Keith Nicholson's service (which
operated under aliases such as "Simon Sykes") whilst hitting out at various
tipsters and Advertisement Managers in the racing Press. The P.P.C. was
itself a response to the Punters Protection Service which was apparently
another fabricated tipster performance chart, published by some early
Nineties Newmarket charlatan tipsters such as Kevin Moorcroft.
1999 update: I understand that tipster ads are subject to tighter
scrutiny than a few years ago. The Advertising Standards Authority will
investigate upon receiving complaints, and their website contains a full
listing of advertisers, complaints and whether they were upheld.
Another pirate, the self-styled "The Executive" of Lymm, Cheshire, claimed
to pass on the advices of several of the best services. The services were
not named, but from the photocopied literature they clearly included Steve
Lewis, Isiris, and the Brimardon Computer system. I understand that The
Executive, a former subscriber to RID, has been identified as a Mr Vickers
of Cheshire, and Isiris is trying to sue him. Funnily, all the services
he was pirating were losing ones.
However, anyone intending to invest reasonable sums on the selections of a
particular service would be better off going direct. The pirates' lines
may be useful to check out the peformance of various tipping firms. But
apart from the rather dubious ethics of exploiting what may be a genuine
service, the extra delay incurred would often mean missing the best of the
early prices.
Business opportunities:
A "business opportunity" scam, sold by Gary Woodward of Leeds, allegedly
showed people how to become tipsters whereupon they were invited to
subscribe to Woodward's tipster service and pass on his bets. Of course,
Woodward's tips were useless, as is any heavily-promoted biz-opp in which
dozens or hundreds of opportunity seekers are attempting to sell the same
product to the same market.
1999 Update: A similar scheme operates today, run by Colin Davey's
Sovereign Investments plc of Bury St Edmunds, in which business opportunity
seekers are set up as "tipsters". For ś140 a month they are supposed to
get half the revenue from a premium rate line. They are supplied with the
daily message, their own premium rate number, and just have to pick a name
and advertise. The trouble is, the Daily Mail discovered that all these
tipsters (the Bury St Edmunds IP33 3WA address is in the footer of the ads)
had the same selections and the same recorded message.
It's ironic that, on the one hand, the Daily Mail's Colin Mackenzie
writes an article condemning the "telephone con-men" and "scam which is
ripping off unsuspecting punters". The tipsters he specifically names
who are in on this, are those who have bought into the Sovereign
Investments plc opportunity. On the other hand, the Mail's advertisement
department is only too pleased to accept ads for Sovereign Bookmakers
(of Bury St Edmunds), which is another of Mr Davey's guises. From
previous form (e.g. Frontline), the prognosis for tipster/bookmakers is
rather more profitable for those who run them, than for their clients.
But surely Sovereign Investments should have chosen another name
(something like BRATS) and used another address, to make it harder to
spot the tipster/bookie connection?
For a selection method they'd need something with a high strike rate that
for a while seems (to the naive punter) as if it might win, but sure as
eggs is eggs loses overall. I'd guess that the selection method probably
tips odds on shots and loses about 2% of turnover pre-tax in the long run.
Rather, I suspect, like Davey's other brainchild, Factor Four??
Alan Glass
Anyone who thinks otherwise needs their head examined.
The Avenger <libe...@endoftheuniverse.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message
news:85a1vo$fll$1...@newsg3.svr.pol.co.uk...
> of 1.05 pts, or 3.9% of turnover. The monthly subscription was only o30,
> way. This client then paid Clarke o75 for his Private Members service.
> After 17 advices, only three of them had won (at 6-5, 11-10 and 7-2). He
> then received offers for Clarke's Sterling service at o200. I joined
> Clarke's National Hunt Super Bet service which gave 7 winners from 22 bets
> at prices of 10-11, 5-4, 7-2, 6-4, 6-4, 4-6 and 4-5, and was then
bombarded
> with offers every week for his Master Coups service at o225 and upwards.
> seekers are set up as "tipsters". For o140 a month they are supposed to
The Avenger
Alan Glass wrote in message <85a51p$21j$1...@news6.svr.pol.co.uk>...
>So to summarise, avoid them like any sensible, reasonable person would.
>Anyone who thinks otherwise needs their head examined.
That's a hasty generalisation which does work over 90% of the time, due to
the
high proportion of useless tipsters.
It would be better for punters to follow this rule than get suckered into
joining the
likes of The 'Winning' Line, Isiris, etc. And when the bettor takes pride
in
compiling his/her own selections and has the ability and plenty of time to
do this,
then yes, it would never make sense to join a tipster.
For some people who want to bet as a business rather than a sport, who have
other commitments on their time or have not learnt the skills of profitable
betting,
then investing in a tipster subscription may make economic sense, subject to
certain provisos. The tipster's terms should not tip the risk : reward
balance
heavily against the bettor -- losing services generally do this by insisting
on advance
payment of large fees. And the punter ought to use a reputable proofing
bureau
such as Smart-proof, to check out tipster performances.
Regards,
skunk
also what do you think of the speedmaster gold 2000 program on the pc.
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Alan Glass
skunk <nobby.h...@net.ntl.com.invalid> wrote in message
news:0fb09a34...@usw-ex0107-050.remarq.com...
The Avenger
skunk wrote in message <0fb09a34...@usw-ex0107-050.remarq.com>...
>have you any info on ray eccleston or nick mordins success rate?
>also what do you think of the speedmaster gold 2000 program on the pc.
I haven't tried either of those tipsters. Nick Mordin is included in
Smart-proof, as is a Ray Edelson.
Anyone considering using a tipster should stack the risk : reward ratio in
their favour as far as possible. Check out the performance in detail,
whether it's a case of studying the monthly profit/loss graphs, strike rate,
profit on turnover as shown in Smart-proof; or getting a deal from the
tipster where your initial advices are provided at little or no cost. The
more data you have to go on, the better guide you will have to future
performance.
Tipster performance fluctuates quite considerably on a monthly basis. I
can't infringe Smart-proof's copyright here, and naming specific winning
tipsters could have so many bookies and punters beating a path to their door
that prices would plummet. In the end you have to make a judgement based on
the evidence. For each tipster of interest, you would have to decide
whether past performance (considering sample size and profitability),
methodology, and terms of business offer sufficiently reasonable prospects
of net profits without risk of too much loss if it all goes wrong.
The worst anyone could do would be to jump in and subscribe to a service
where marketing and spin doctoring get priority over the product, high
subscriptions lead to overbetting and underpricing of the advices, the
"independent" monitors of tipster performance which tip the tipster are as
independent as a foetus, and the ads are misleading (for example by giving
details of winners with no mention of losers or profitability). I.e., the
sort of mistakes I've made!
There is some good software, but again I'd be reluctant to name it and risk
curtailing value prices. I haven't tried the Speedmaster Gold program.
Best Regards,
skunk
The Avenger
premium-rate tipster franchises; one of the tipster opportunities reviewed
here 11 days ago. He certainly seems to be doing well out of the tipping
bookmaking business - his personalised number plate COLIN cost him £75,000!
Remember folks, you heard it first on uk.sport.horseracing.
Regards,
Roger Standing
Yes, we did, many months ago
Gee, if I follow him maybe I'll have a personalised number plate! I'll
enlist right away
Derek Fitzpatrick
Bookmakers. It seems that through Franchising his service and selections
that he is responsible for 150 phone tipping services including Acorn
Advice, Sapphire Racing and Magnum Raceline, which all tip the same horse.
Mr Davey says that he is through his seminars now the highest paid public
speaker in The country. Interestingly they did not queery his statement that
he could as a last resort beat the handicapper eight times out of ten. Why
not tell the world that it is simply by backing horses that run again after
winning before they are re-handicapped. The Four day System that he thinks
is only known to him but has been around for years.
Will the Daily Mail now stop taking adverts from Sovereign Bookmakers ?.
Derek.
The Avenger <libe...@endoftheuniverse.freeserve.co.uk> wrote in message
news:866okg$q4o$1...@newsg2.svr.pol.co.uk...
> Today's Daily Mail carries a follow-up article featuring Colin Davey's
> premium-rate tipster franchises; one of the tipster opportunities reviewed
> here 11 days ago. He certainly seems to be doing well out of the tipping
> bookmaking business - his personalised number plate COLIN cost him
£75,000!
>
> Remember folks, you heard it first on uk.sport.horseracing.
>
> Regards,
>
>
>