'Bartlett' High
Paul Bartlett
I have no wish to increase my notoriety, but this really is a classic
mild winter set up.
The high over the Alps or Biscay, can easily be replaced by another one
moving southeast from Labrador in the confluence behind weakening upper
troughs as they move east towards UK. It then arrives at the Azores,
then Biscay, then southern Europe (in one form of another).
This is a very normal pattern, and any tendancy for this to be changed,
i.e. by a more distorted Atlantic upper pattern is to be lauded in
winter.
This root cause of self-perpetuating mild winters can last for months -
I have records of no less than 8 anticylones following one another
through the course of an entire winter.
I do not think the sequence of these highs is as important in other
seasons, when the upper flow, and consequent developement areas, are
normally less strong, and surface heating plays a bigger part.
We are getting near the end of winter now, but even so it will be
interesting to see how this one disperses.
This normally occurs through transference to Scandawegia, or collapsing
ahead of a meriodionally extending upper trough near UK.
Extensive trials show that they do *not* decline by stabbing them (on a
chart) with dividers, knives, and other sharp instruments.
Cheers
Paul
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Paul Bartlett
(01572) 812715
Steve Towers
Paul Bartlett wrote in message ...
>The high over the Alps or Biscay -
>Extensive trials show that they do *not* decline by stabbing them (on a
>chart) with dividers, knives, and other sharp instruments.
But it is the only satisfaction we've got left!
My hope are pinned on a late season Unstable northerly (eddies and all
please).
Regards (off to chop a Bartlett High) Steve
Philip Layton
On Sun, 8 Feb 1998 19:10:51 +0000, Paul Bartlett <Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk>
wrote:
>Extensive trials show that they do *not* decline by stabbing them (on a
>chart) with dividers, knives, and other sharp instruments.
>Cheers
>Paul
>--
Paul, if it makes you feel better, just cut the High out, and Paste it on
Scandinavia !
--
___________________________________________________
Phil Layton
Guildford. UK.
NATS. Terminal Control. LATCC. My Views not NATS.
Will
Philip Layton wrote in message <34ded0ff....@news.dial.pipex.com>...
>On Sun, 8 Feb 1998 19:10:51 +0000, Paul Bartlett <Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk>
>wrote:
>
>
>>Extensive trials show that they do *not* decline by stabbing them (on a
>>chart) with dividers, knives, and other sharp instruments.
>>Cheers
>>Paul
>>--
>
>Paul, if it makes you feel better, just cut the High out, and Paste it on
>Scandinavia !
But then the paste will not stick properly and it will sink south down the paper
:-)
Cheers,
Will.
--
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Paul Bartlett
In article <34ded0ff....@news.dial.pipex.com>, Philip Layton
<phil....@dial.pipex.com> writesEr, Phil, I don't think you quite understand my dislike of the
phenomena.
On one occasion I brought the Bracknell FSXX home from work (showing a
high in Biscay 1045), and got a friend to discharge his 'fowling-piece'
(four-ten) into it at a range of 1 foot (=12inches). This completely
destroyed it on the chart, but next morning I went into work to find it
had built to 1055.
I have tried many methods without success, however someone may make a
name for themselves by explaining a mechanism wherewith they can be
succesfuly obliterated.
It seems that the only hope that exists at the moment is to melt the
Greenland icecap and thus disrupt the NAD......some hope!
David Reynolds
The message <Lh32SBA7...@greemet.demon.co.uk>
from Paul Bartlett <Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk> contains these words:
> I have no wish to increase my notoriety, but this really is a classic
> mild winter set up.
Did you ever realise that your lasting contribution to global
meteorological science is the Bartlett high?? In the not too distant
future, I can see texts dealing with winter climatology and
forecasting lamenting the passing of the Scandinavian high and scorn
the ever-present Bartlett high ....
> Extensive trials show that they do *not* decline by stabbing them (on a
> chart) with dividers, knives, and other sharp instruments.
Dang it, try harder, TRY HARDER!!!
Dave :-)
Chris Scoggins
Now we are used to collaborating as a group (group forecast), I wonder if a
group wish at the same moment in time would do the trick? Friday 12:00Z OK?
Paul Bartlett
In article <199802092...@torro.org.uk>, David Reynolds
<david.r...@torro.org.uk> writes
But this winter phenomena has to be isloated. It is mainly dynamic in
origin, but once it has dispersed we have a chance in most years.
Its appearance makes me shake with deep foreboding.
(Hence my rather Quixotic efforts to let the air out of it.)
Other methods have been tried, like taking in a deep breath of air from
the south and blowing it north; and others, which are too crude to
mention, - all to no effect.
I remember in the days of PSOs (Principle Scientific Officers (Gods
among men) being told that when a high started sprouting 'legs' it will
decline; i.e. walk.
I pass these pearls of science down to mankind, and do so freely, they
should ever be remembered.
Paul Bartlett
In article <01bd361d$3524d640$4927...@01828.oxfam.org.uk>, Chris
Scoggins <csco...@Oxfam.org.uk> writes
>Now we are used to collaborating as a group (group forecast), I wonder if a
>group wish at the same moment in time would do the trick? Friday 12:00Z OK?
>
Give me rain/smow/gales etc. anything to remind me there is still a
dynamic weather machine out there instead of this abysmal gap when it is
too early to get on with the garden, yet too late to hope for any real
winter.
A change of type will be my wish. Which should give the Lord, or any
other powers that be, a bit of scope!.
Ian Waddell
In article <8FK7LKAw...@greemet.demon.co.uk>, Paul Bartlett
<Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk> writes
>In article <01bd361d$3524d640$4927...@01828.oxfam.org.uk>, Chris
>Scoggins <csco...@Oxfam.org.uk> writes
>>Now we are used to collaborating as a group (group forecast), I wonder if a
>>group wish at the same moment in time would do the trick? Friday 12:00Z OK?
>>
>Chris, mine wil be 'anything to what we have'; *any* change of type.
>Give me rain/smow/gales etc. anything to remind me there is still a
>dynamic weather machine out there instead of this abysmal gap when it is
>too early to get on with the garden, yet too late to hope for any real
>winter.
>A change of type will be my wish. Which should give the Lord, or any
>other powers that be, a bit of scope!.
>Cheers
>Paul
>
----------------------------------------------
Ian Waddell
http://www.rustia.demon.co.uk
i...@rustia.demon.co.uk
N R J Whitelegg
In the referenced article, Paul Bartlett <Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk> writes:
>In article <34ded0ff....@news.dial.pipex.com>, Philip Layton
><phil....@dial.pipex.com> writes
>>On Sun, 8 Feb 1998 19:10:51 +0000, Paul Bartlett <Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk>
>>wrote:
>Er, Phil, I don't think you quite understand my dislike of the
>phenomena.
>On one occasion I brought the Bracknell FSXX home from work (showing a
>high in Biscay 1045), and got a friend to discharge his 'fowling-piece'
>(four-ten) into it at a range of 1 foot (=12inches). This completely
>destroyed it on the chart, but next morning I went into work to find it
>had built to 1055.
Maybe the "Bartlett high" reacts in precisely the OPPOSITE way you want it
to! If it's stabbed with various implements, it knows that you want it to
move, so why not leave it alone? Then it'll think that you want it to stay
around, so it'll move to Scandinavia or somewhere like that!
Nick W
Paul Bartlett
In article <Eo9nu3.4v...@bath.ac.uk>, N R J Whitelegg
<bsp...@bath.ac.uk> writes
>Maybe the "Bartlett high" reacts in precisely the OPPOSITE way you want it
>to! If it's stabbed with various implements, it knows that you want it to
>move, so why not leave it alone? Then it'll think that you want it to stay
>around, so it'll move to Scandinavia or somewhere like that!
not doubt your interpretation of adverse reaction.
I think you miss the point though that many weathermen have managed to
stay sane (or half sane) by the cathartic experience of physically
assaulting a peice of paper.
Peter Wright
>Give me rain/smow/gales etc. anything to remind me there is still a
>too early to get on with the garden, yet too late to hope for any real
>winter.
Abysmal? That's a bit much!
OK, I like snow as much as the rest of you, a cold spell can be exciting, a
spell of changeable W'lies can get boring, etc.
But the current spell? It's extreme -- it's breaking records right left and centre -
it's unusual -- none of us forecast it well in advance - and above all, it's even
PLEASANT! Quite exciting, in my view.
--
Peter Wright
Westwind Services
Edgmond, Shropshire E-mail: Pe...@westwind.demon.co.uk
Past weather data : Monthly weather bulletin Britain and Europe
Paul Bartlett
In article <uoATfLAN...@westwind.demon.co.uk>, Peter Wright
<Pe...@westwind.demon.co.uk> writes
Peter, Ah yes very pleasant in the short term for we insulated humans.
I am not that sure of the consequencies to wildlife, should a cold spell
follow.
And I am also unsure where it places farmers, growers or simply
gardeners like myself, apart from having to heavily spray against crop
disease. (exclude me only on that as my veg patch is organic.)
It certainly is not producing any rain, which we still need.
Statistics are useful, I agree there.
But we don't live in a laboratory.
I think we may have to agree to differ on this.
Will
Paul Bartlett wrote in message ...
>In article <uoATfLAN...@westwind.demon.co.uk>, Peter Wright
><Pe...@westwind.demon.co.uk> writes
>Peter, Ah yes very pleasant in the short term for we insulated humans.
>I am not that sure of the consequencies to wildlife, should a cold spell
>follow.
>And I am also unsure where it places farmers, growers or simply
>gardeners like myself, apart from having to heavily spray against crop
>disease. (exclude me only on that as my veg patch is organic.)
>It certainly is not producing any rain, which we still need.
>Statistics are useful, I agree there.
>But we don't live in a laboratory.
>I think we may have to agree to differ on this.
Of course we do !
We are all making value judgements, which as we know can cause all sorts of
rivalry, albeit friendly.
This is the great thing about such a newsgroup, we hear other peoples point of
view.
Now returning to the thread topic of Bartlett high, just had a peek at latest
UKMO T+120 and it looks like the dynamic Bartlett high sequence may be ending,
with a return to wet weather at the end of next week. OK not cold, no snow, no
easterly, but some badly needed rain (except of course in W. Scotland).
Heres to a wild and wet and cold March, if that upsets anyone then tough :-) :-)
Paul Bartlett
In article <887533075.7075.0...@news.demon.co.uk>, Will
<wi...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> writes
Will, It is interesting to note, in the shorter term, a high replacing
the previous one. High 'A' in this case.
Classic example of the persistence of this self-perpetuating set up.
Having spent two and a half days in the garden since Thursday, doing
hedge cutting, grenhouse repairs and swilling it out with Jey's fluid
(most of which went over me), yup you can motor on a bit at this time of
year in an mild/dry spell.
But my usual agricultural contractor who normal does my quarter mile
(plus) of tall hedge is also busy.
I have left him to choose any time before the birds start nesting, but
he keeps maundering on about how busy he is. Which means I am going to
have to fight hard to keep his prices down - but 'twill be done this
week.
His tractor plus appendages must be worth over pounds 100,000 so I can't
see me getting away with 20 quid again like last year when the begger
was forced to be idle through rain.
Bad news all round these highs and warm dry spells.
Now your indications of a wet spell here could be useful, as he won't be
able to spray.
I think such indications if presented to him in the context of the
'Scheme of Things', may be beneficial.
Ian Waddell
In article <WVrxfCAx...@greemet.demon.co.uk>, Paul Bartlett
<Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk> writes
>In article <887533075.7075.0...@news.demon.co.uk>, Will
><wi...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> writes
>Will, It is interesting to note, in the shorter term, a high replacing
>the previous one. High 'A' in this case.
>Classic example of the persistence of this self-perpetuating set up.
>
>Having spent two and a half days in the garden since Thursday, doing
>hedge cutting, grenhouse repairs and swilling it out with Jey's fluid
I've taken to drinking that with the current set-up and the UKMO model
fooling me.
[snip]
Damned weather
David Reynolds
The message <5Nvd3GAG...@rustia.demon.co.uk>
from Ian Waddell <i...@rustia.demon.co.uk> contains these words:
> > Will, It is interesting to note, in the shorter term, a high replacing
> > the previous one. High 'A' in this case.
> > Classic example of the persistence of this self-perpetuating set up.
> > Having spent two and a half days in the garden since Thursday, doing
> > hedge cutting, grenhouse repairs and swilling it out with Jey's fluid
> I've taken to drinking that with the current set-up and the UKMO model
> fooling me.
LOL! :-)
But there's a thought - Jey's fluid might shift the Bartlett high!
Things are looking dire with that blasted high set up thoughout the
MRF's 00z Mon 16 run, to a greater or lesser extent. Thu/Fri/Sat
(ish) might be interesting though - an active(?) cold front might be
in the offing.
Heck, I'm clutching at straws here .... pass the Jey's Ian!
Cheers!
Dave :-)
Paul Bartlett
In article <5Nvd3GAG...@rustia.demon.co.uk>, Ian Waddell
<i...@rustia.demon.co.uk> writes
Ian, we all catch at straws in a winter this bad.
I am still watching the ever recurrent highs reforming to the south.
One may decline but another takes its place.
Doesn't matter what the individual cells are called..A B C D etc..
They are all the spawn of a wearisome upper air pattern.
Wow! But I must report a moderate rain shower hereabouts (Rutland) at
1600. Made the roads quite wet for a time.
Really tough driving up to Grantham (Lincs) 12 miles away. I have to
face the perilous trip to Lincoln tomorrow (40 miles north), min temps
are forecast at PS02C so there may be some ice...I can't cope with such
treacherous conditions.
Have you tried mixing strong tranquilizers with the Jeye's fluid and a
large dose of sloe gin plus half a bottle of asprin?
I have been told this helps when reviewing the latest machine progs (all
of which you have seen daily since Feb 03, and never really change.)
They just go on and on......
But it's no good trying it in half pints; it has to a be pint.
'A February spring
Is not worth a pin'
Paul Bartlett
In article <199802161...@torro.org.uk>, David Reynolds
<david.r...@torro.org.uk> writes
This winter has a lot to answer for. Turning good men away from their
normal pure living based on meths and strong cider.
I received the COL 1961-1990 climat data yesterday, and find it hard to
believe the figures...all that seems centuries behind us.
And I/we need rain, better than this fog and bright sunshine.
Wierd I may be, but I love walking outside with continuous moderate rain
beating down on the umberella.
But this set up is awful.
Paul Bartlett
In article <rS2OOFAJ...@greemet.demon.co.uk>, Paul Bartlett
<Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk> writesJust a chance that the beast may decline/retrogress in 6 days.
I have been watching mrf progs go for a more cyclonic, and and much
colder northerly for the last three days runs, now (Sun pm) the ecmwf
and nogaps show the same thing. Ukmo not so sure and much slower.
Rain or snow I don't care which, but now but we need precipitation! And
a break in the boredom.
Paul Bartlett
In article <rS2OOFAJ...@greemet.demon.co.uk>, Paul Bartlett
<Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk> writes
>In article <199802161...@torro.org.uk>, David Reynolds
in regressing the high west and introducing a cold, more cyclonic,
northerly. It could turm a bit wintry by Fri/Sat.
Paul Bartlett
In article <n5w9kAAI...@greemet.demon.co.uk>, Paul Bartlett
<Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk> writes
>In article <rS2OOFAJ...@greemet.demon.co.uk>, Paul Bartlett
><Pa...@greemet.demon.co.uk> writes
>>In article <199802161...@torro.org.uk>, David Reynolds
>Following my last article of 10mins ago the ukmo has now come into line
>in regressing the high west and introducing a cold, more cyclonic,
>northerly. It could turm a bit wintry by Fri/Sat.
>Cheers
>Paul
>
Having looked at tonight's (Mon 23) progs - OK its is going to get cold.
I would much prefer an easterly..even so progs may give us some much
needed rain/snow. And a bit of desperately needed interest.
I note CDC 15 day is unimpressed by all this, as usual.
And mrf drifts a blocking high south to the west of UK at T+144.
But I am not complaining - we need a change,howver temporary, and how!