Re: Monday 5 April 2013.

[Weatherlawyer]

Weatherlawyer wrote:
> I was watching a lot of precipitation sliding straight down the
> eastern edge of South Africa on:
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
> Friday through Sunday and then it disappears. I think it is diverted
> around the anticyclone.
>
> Then I saw that there is a huge mat of precipitation on the coast of
> Antarctica on Monday at about 140 to 180 west.
> This is indicative of a severe earthquake. I have no idea what
> magnitude though. Generally a Mag 7 occurs when two such masses hit
> the mainland at the same time. Something over 8 requires three of
> them. Plus the preciptation all has to go straight in perpendicular so
> to speak.
>
> The normal flow is outside the anticyclone nearest the point of entry,
> forcing the precipitaion to take a route at some 120 degrees to the
> coast.
>
> looking at the rest of the run it seems we are in for a lot of Blocked
> weather with the accompanying tropical storms too I think. Not to sure
> about that last bit. I wonder what it would takle to run the model out
> to hundreds of hours.
>
> Seeing as we know what the reason is that they fail ther would be
> nothing to lose by having thes exceptionally long runs. It's not as if
> they are data rich in the first place. And the errors that meteorology
> despairs of would all be a bonus to scryers like me. (The visions that
> scryers say they see may come from variations in the medium. If the
> medium is water (hydromancy), then the visions may come from the
> color, ebb and flow, or ripples produced
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scrying)

Before a large earthquake occurs:

1. Everyone has problems with ropey technology. So you might try a
little patience.

2. Large aircraft tend to fall out the sky. Overloaded ferry boats
turn turtle, portents are seen in the sky.

(Actually that last one can look quite pretty. Mares tails and overly
emphatic con trails sort of thing.)

3. People of a "certain age" suffer brain farts.

(I think that that one is down to us leading overly luxurious lives
and filling our synovial fluids with fatty crystals where once upon a
time our half starved ancestors would still be on the ball.)

4. Contemporary meteorology tends to get the picture wrong.

As it is the start of a new phase today, I think it is unlikely that
the big one will be on the 15th. That's right in the middle of a
spell. Not that there is no precedence for such a thing to occur. I
still have time to check out the other sites. Maybe it is a large
tornado cell.

[Weatherlawyer]

On Apr 10, 4:50 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Weatherlawyer wrote:
> > I was watching a lot of precipitation sliding straight down the
> > eastern edge of South Africa on:
>

> >http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p...

The title of this thread has been changed accordingly.
It is pretty obvious that there will be a largish quake on Monday but
how large I can't say.

There is a line of Lows on the Canadian EFS indicative of this:
> http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html

> 4. Contemporary meteorology tends to get the picture wrong.
>
> As it is the start of a new phase today, I think it is unlikely that
> the big one will be on the 15th. That's right in the middle of a
> spell. Not that there is no precedence for such a thing to occur. I
> still have time to check out the other sites. Maybe it is a large
> tornado cell

Quite a large cell of tornadoes has run over the last few days. This
has displaced a lot of the energy that would have gone into a severe
or more sever quake that the stuff we have been having at the same
time:
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

But the Australian southern hemisphere run shows a lot of contusion on
the shores of Antarctica from 18:00 Sunday night:
>http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

The MetO model shows that the present set up as of midnight this
morning was due to break up about the time of writing (noon today.)
Things remain fractured until noon Friday and even then the charts are
full of thunder. (Which tends to occur alongside earthquakes -possibly
we have thunder instead of earthquakes the same way Kansas and the
rest of the US Mid-West does?)

A lot of purple mice appear on the chart on Saturday along with a new
Low system indicative of another tropical storm or a resurgence of an
existing one. It is surrounded by satellite Lows until the end of the
run, thus I believe the earthquakes they are showing us are to be more
of the same:
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html

That is; more of these doubles and trebles:




Update time = Thu Apr 11 10:28:53 UTC 2013


4.8 2013/04/11 02:03:24 28.507 51.676 10.1 SOUTHERN IRAN

4.0 2013/04/10 23:35:18 28.282 51.640 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.6 2013/04/10 12:40:18 28.514 51.552 9.9 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.1 2013/04/10 09:29:54 28.541 51.632 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.2 2013/04/10 08:00:00 28.438 51.738 9.9 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.8 2013/04/10 07:10:41 28.309 51.751 10.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.3 2013/04/10 06:18:37 28.786 51.673 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN

4.1 2013/04/09 21:18:22 28.521 51.584 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.8 2013/04/09 20:54:16 28.276 51.675 9.9 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.7 2013/04/09 20:43:48 5.613 93.310 31.2 OFF THE WEST
COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
4.6 2013/04/09 20:06:53 28.420 51.641 19.9 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.7 2013/04/09 19:45:37 -2.855 139.172 50.8 NEAR THE NORTH
COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
4.4 2013/04/09 19:10:34 28.407 51.626 10.1 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.3 2013/04/09 18:59:09 28.516 51.711 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN

4.4 2013/04/09 17:21:00 28.510 51.738 9.5 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.7 2013/04/09 16:32:32 28.446 51.685 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.2 2013/04/09 15:05:46 28.146 51.705 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.8 2013/04/09 14:44:52 28.394 51.666 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN

4.8 2013/04/09 13:30:42 28.308 51.654 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.2 2013/04/09 13:03:24 28.497 51.565 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN

4.7 2013/04/09 12:47:47 28.359 51.724 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
4.7 2013/04/09 12:41:05 28.415 51.691 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
5.4 2013/04/09 12:05:40 28.491 51.685 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
6.3 2013/04/09 11:52:50 28.500 51.591 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN
3.4 2013/04/09 10:43:56 53.737 -164.282 25.5 UNIMAK ISLAND
REGION, ALASKA
2.5 2013/04/09 10:30:12 54.075 -164.490 45.5 UNIMAK ISLAND
REGION, ALASKA
4.6 2013/04/09 08:49:13 -23.578 -64.557 28.1 JUJUY,
ARGENTINA
4.5 2013/04/09 08:42:25 -23.501 -64.504 24.0 SALTA,
ARGENTINA
2.7 2013/04/09 00:08:34 18.354 -67.536 4.0 MONA PASSAGE,
PUERTO RICO

2.5 2013/04/08 23:51:19 18.193 -67.478 31.0 MONA PASSAGE,
PUERTO RICO

3.2 2013/04/07 10:02:17 66.234 -148.742 7.4 NORTHERN ALASKA
3.8 2013/04/07 09:34:38 66.224 -148.746 17.2 NORTHERN
ALASKA
4.6 2013/04/07 08:40:37 -7.986 -79.593 64.3 NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTHERN PERU
4.4 2013/04/07 05:18:25 11.941 -87.888 35.1 NEAR THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA
4.7 2013/04/07 04:34:06 17.516 147.263 60.1 MARIANA ISLANDS
REGION
4.5 2013/04/07 03:38:06 17.492 147.433 59.9 MARIANA ISLANDS
REGION
5.4 2013/04/07 01:31:18 17.414 147.351 31.6 MARIANA ISLANDS
REGION

4.8 2013/04/06 19:57:48 16.269 147.275 49.6 MARIANA ISLANDS
REGION
4.6 2013/04/06 09:34:13 -9.905 -75.487 45.1 CENTRAL PERU
4.6 2013/04/06 08:49:29 -8.828 -78.654 77.6 NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTHERN PERU
5.2 2013/04/06 07:50:31 -3.523 138.432 71.1 PAPUA,
INDONESIA
4.8 2013/04/06 07:37:55 1.650 127.458 136.0 HALMAHERA,
INDONESIA
4.7 2013/04/06 06:56:50 -3.723 152.064 8.4 NEW IRELAND
REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
4.6 2013/04/06 06:20:46 -3.400 138.553 68.3 PAPUA,
INDONESIA
4.1 2013/04/06 05:57:59 -3.522 138.300 70.6 PAPUA,
INDONESIA
7.0 2013/04/06 04:42:36 -3.526 138.466 68.0 PAPUA,
INDONESIA

3.3 2013/04/05 03:04:19 19.110 -64.682 10.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS
REGION
3.0 2013/04/05 02:24:20 19.128 -64.605 43.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS
REGION
3.0 2013/04/05 02:18:26 53.467 -165.272 35.7 FOX ISLANDS,
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
3.1 2013/04/05 02:11:11 53.480 -165.272 41.1 FOX ISLANDS,
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA

Actually the coast of America is lit up like a christmas tree from
Peru to Russia and it is possible to see certain sequencing taking
place with certain regions. But I haven't been paying much atention to
stuff of less than 4 to 4.5 so I have missed out on all of that.

As I stated in a previous post to this thread, there is a link with
rain in Britain and the demise of tropical storms. Such is the case
here today (11th April 2013.) Andf I dare say things are going to get
sunnier from this mizzle asa the Low system expires and froms the next
blocked High. Let's hope it doesn't all signal another unfortunate
long run of similar weather.

The MetOffice's chart indicates that another storm is forming. There
is tremendous elongation after Monday on the BOM run but even so it
does allow for another tropical storm too.

An odd one.

[Skywise]

Weatherlawyer <weathe...@gmail.com> wrote in news:2fccc131-f789-4087-
b1ea-3d7...@j14g2000vbk.googlegroups.com:

> It is pretty obvious that there will be a largish quake on Monday but
> how large I can't say.

Define "largish."

Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?

[Skywise]

The Other Guy <Knews...@gmail.com> wrote in
news:3ujem8huspo71vqcu...@4ax.com:

> On Thu, 11 Apr 2013 19:31:45 GMT, Skywise <in...@oblivion.nothing.com>
> wrote:
>
>>Define "largish."
>
> Please DON'T feed the trolls!!!

It makes no difference whether I feed him or not. He posts
anyway. Some trolls are like airplants.

BTW, I don't know if you hail from SGE or USW, but perhaps
I should have trimmed off USW.

Anyway, followups set to SGW, and I will trim to only this
group in the future.

[Weatherlawyer]

> >http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p...

Looks like it might turn out to be tornadic. The Met Office charts
show the Low already splitting up and the major portion going up
between two Highs, clasic lake effect only of course the Highs are
both northern latitudes and the Low is headed up the Denmark Sea
avoiding Britain and Norway.

This type tends to split into three, one Low eventually heading around
to Alaska via the Mackenzie River. one harbours of Russia for the
duration of the spell and I think the other goes to Greenland but it's
been so long since I saw it (lots of them in 2006 or 2007 IIRC) that I
forget.

I also forget the type pf weather that the cycle engendered. But it is
easily piced up from Bernard Burton's site... ah no... his ASXX charts
only go back to 2009.

WetterZentrale houses some then:
> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkfaxbraar.htm

Anyone remember the weather for whichever year that was?
A low number of hurricanes as I recall and some pretty nasty storms in
Asian waters. I have a feeling there were som terrible tornadoes too.

> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_heat_wave
we won't have more flooding this year will we?
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_United_Kingdom_floods

Ah well I suppose I had better go and look. Only 7 hurricanes in 2007
so that must have been the year.

[Weatherlawyer]

On Apr 11, 8:31 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
> Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote in news:2fccc131-f789-4087-
> b1ea-3d747a7a9...@j14g2000vbk.googlegroups.com:

>
> > It is pretty obvious that there will be a largish quake on Monday but
> > how large I can't say.
>
> Define "largish."

For those of us who are hard of reading:
Largish is defined as greater than smallish.
> > how much larger, I can't say.

Somewhat moot as the worst of the phenomena might well be tornadic if
2007 is anything to go by:

".... there were 1,305 reported tornadoes in the U.S. (of which 1,093
were confirmed), with 81 confirmed fatalities. It was the deadliest
year for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1999, when 95 deaths were
reported. In addition, 3 fatalities took place in Mexico, 14 in Chad,
1 in South Africa, 3 in Vietnam, 1 in the Philippines, 25 in China and
7 in Bangladesh for a worldwide known total of at least 134."
(For a given definition of "well"; ungiven and the usual meaning of
"worst" applying.)

> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2007

Perhaps you know the energy conversion tables for comparison of
earthquake magnitudes with tornado cells and (for what little it's
worth) tropical storms?

While I am wittering about tornadoes I was thinking about that post
about El Hierro...

Seeing as large bodies of water represent regions whose ability to
climb out of the primordial soup is less than that of Hawaii and North
America and Eurasia et al; might it be supposed that the way that
highs and Lows dispose themselves about the North tlantic are related
to the beds of SIAL and SIMA?

It would allow for an extensive underground water network that would
subvert the flow of the atmosphere cyclically depending on the
position of the planets:

""Saturn is the first planet to show significant interaction between
its atmosphere and ring system," said James O'Donoghue. The main
effect of ring rain is that it acts to 'quench' the ionosphere of
Saturn. In other words, this rain severely reduces the electron
densities in regions in which it falls."

The ring's effect on electron densities explains why observations have
shown those densities to be unusually low at certain latitudes on
Saturn.

"A major driver of Saturn's ionospheric environment are ring particles
located some 36,000 miles overhead," said Kevin Baines, a co-author on
the paper, based at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif.
"The ring particles affect both what species of particles are in this
part of the atmosphere and where it is warm or cool.""

> http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-130&cid=release_2013-130

Assuming we don't have a ring system, everything else being equal, the
bow wave effect on earth may also be affected in a similar way in
which case yours truly said it first. (And you don't need 30 smackers
to read my stuff, too neither!)

(But don't let that not stop you.)

Meanwhile the tendency of weather gaps at latitude awaits a full
explanation.
Why, for example is the front that could have been heading for Spain
now heading for Norway?

Could t have something to do with the semipermanent Highs that develop
over the Azores and Greenland?

Very occasionally they block the North Atlantic. And we don't knwo
why.

The east/west flow of the cyclones out of canada and the USA seem to
hit a block over the Mid Atlantic Ridge. This is especially evident
when a tornado spell is due. The Low stalls at some 980 mb and then
drops to 975mb before pushing through between the two separate Highs.

Or have I got that the wrong way around?
Ah to be young again! Not that my noodle was once what it was. It
never was. (Although, to be sure, I can't be absolutely sure.)

The point is that it would be nice to know what's going under.

[Weatherlawyer]

Looks like there are no more Lows in that line on the Canadian EFS.
Instead it appears on today's chart. That is, it is forecast for
tomorrow (Sunday 15 April 2013.
Oh... wait?????)

This would be in keeping with the idea it might be a tornado event
after all. I imagine there will be a 5.9 or something to split the
difference and the cells shoiuld appear on the Tornadoe charts from
NWS from today exploding on Monday into full flower.

(Or not as the case may be.)

Whatever the case, this chart:

> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/130412_rpts.html

marks the end of the shelf life of the previous series. (Which begs
the question about aftershocks I posed on another thread recently.)

Since the display is given in 24 hour intervals, not a continuous band
or animation over the run of the phenomenon. What degree of exactitude
can be supposed for epicentres of earthquake aftershocks?

Tornado series like this occur and recur over a band of 3 hours of arc
over three or so days. So where does an earthquake series begin and
end?

(If you are Aildan Kareless; stick it up your oil pipe. You don't know
the answer and I don't want to hear it.)

From the spate in Iran we now have a spate of Fijian Triangle stuff:

Update time = Sat Apr 13 13:00:06 UTC 2013

5.0 2013/04/13 09:19:12 -45.451 -75.696 35.1 OFF THE COAST
OF AISEN, CHILE
5.1 2013/04/13 07:08:59 -6.345 147.787 68.3 EASTERN NEW
GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA


5.8 2013/04/12 20:33:18 34.369 134.831 14.0 NEAR S. COAST
OF WESTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
5.0 2013/04/12 16:22:24 -17.610 -178.947 500.6 FIJI REGION
5.4 2013/04/12 10:34:11 4.462 127.741 103.2 KEPULAUAN
TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.3 2013/04/12 06:57:27 -21.787 -176.177 39.7 FIJI REGION
5.2 2013/04/12 03:45:08 17.870 -101.383 36.4 GUERRERO,
MEXICO


5.5 2013/04/11 15:28:31 -17.349 175.050 34.5 FIJI REGION
5.2 2013/04/11 03:47:04 19.263 95.695 10.1 MYANMAR


5.8 2013/04/10 20:20:26 20.819 122.120 4.2 BATAN ISLANDS
REGION, PHILIPPINES
5.0 2013/04/10 19:59:29 2.602 127.217 66.0 MOLUCCA SEA
5.5 2013/04/10 19:14:03 15.537 -87.228 10.0 HONDURAS
5.2 2013/04/10 16:20:21 -10.730 -75.262 99.6 CENTRAL PERU

5.2 2013/04/10 08:00:00 28.438 51.738 9.9 SOUTHERN IRAN

5.6 2013/04/10 01:58:28 28.450 51.608 10.0 SOUTHERN IRAN

I am assuming (Tornadoes aside) that the large quake will be in the
triangle. The precursors to the megaquake in Japan were some 12 to 15
degrees from Japan in the Bonin and Volcano Islands. But those were
just the ones that caught my eye.

I am now wondering how much of a spread precursors actually have.
Say Colorado to the East Coast as the approximate mean distance. That
is what 1500 miles?
Someone productive tell me please. (Oh please don't let it be
Skywise.)

Ah feckit The risk is too great, I'll look it up myself:

1700 miles.

[Weatherlawyer]

On Apr 11, 8:31 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
> Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote in news:2fccc131-f789-4087-
> b1ea-3d747a7a9...@j14g2000vbk.googlegroups.com:
>

> > It is pretty obvious that there will be a largish quake on Monday but
> > how large I can't say.
>
> Define "largish."

7.8 M.

[Weatherlawyer]

On Apr 16, 9:12 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
> Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote in news:a0a06c76-ce22-4ffa-

>
>
> >> > It is pretty obvious that there will be a largish quake on Monday but
> >> > how large I can't say.
>
> >> Define "largish."
>
> > 7.8 M.
>

> Too bad it happened on Tuesday.

According to your lights but then you are perversely negative despite
all you might otherwise learn.

According to mine, I even got the run of tornadoes.

***

Traits in earthquakes.

Something to consider with the large earthquake in Iran on the 16th
April 2013:

1. The incidence of tropical storms is low when a sev ere earthquake
occurs.

2. There appears to be a relationship with massive blocking at the
tips of the continents that border Antarctica. (South America; Africa
and Australia.)

3. There is a relationship with convergence and divergence in cyclonic
systems at high latitudes. Large earthquakes tend to occur some 80
degree from the centres of certain cyclone. And the cyclones exhibit
dart-boarding (well developed circular storms with the isobars packed
close together.)

4. Whilst the incidence of medium sized tremors world-wide drops in
the sequence that leads to a large quake, there is a relationship with
earthquake swarms at the region of the epicentre that occur relatively
well in advance of the main sequence.
This did not happen with the Iranian quake but there appears to be
another large quake in the system due on or near the 21st April 2013 –
probably on the 21st.

(There was such a swarm in Iran a week or more before the event that
prompted me to pose the likelihood of the next “large” to “very large”
quake being in Iran. This conversation took place with an acquaintance
online so there may be a link to the date it took place.)

5. I have a reasonable collection of the weather forecasts (put out by
the various national meteorological centres that deal with tropical
storms, North America and the North Atlantic prior to the above quake.
Weather forecasts provide a better indicator of likely seismic events
than the “finished” or “Analysis” charts.

6. It is unfortunate but quite reasonable, that forecasts are not
stored in an archival system.

It is when weather forecasts are in error that the first indicators of
earthquake activity appear. At the moment, early in the 21st Century,
the connection between earthquakes and weather is not widely known.

Those who have heard of the idea are somewhat violently opposed to the
suggestion; hence the experts in the fields of Seismology and
Meteorology will not look closely at the matter until another
generation with less tightly shut minds replaces them.

***

The Iranian Quake:
An elongation of low pressure reached from Antarctica to Africa on the
Australian produced charts. This situation prevented the free flow of
anticyclonic weather from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean. In winter
the ice around Antarctica is so widespread that it affects
temperatures and pressures in the air off the Cape.

To be continued...

[Weatherlawyer]

On Apr 19, 1:15 am, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:

> Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote innews:9396c935-eb0d-481f...@cm2g2000vbb.googlegroups.com:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Apr 16, 9:12 pm, Skywise <i...@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
> >> Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote in
> >> news:a0a06c76-ce22-4ffa-
>
> >> >> > It is pretty obvious that there will be a largish quake on Monday
> >> >> > bu
> > t
> >> >> > how large I can't say.
>
> >> >> Define "largish."
>
> >> > 7.8 M.
>
> >> Too bad it happened on Tuesday.
>
> > According to your lights but then you are perversely negative despite
> > all you might otherwise learn.
>

> You said there'd be a quake on Monday.
>
> After the Iran quake you mentioned it as if to imply that it fits your
> 'prediction'.
>
> However, that quake happened on Tuesday, unless you want to use
> American Samoa as the reference time zone, in which case it occurred
> at 11:44 pm Monday night. However, you didn't specify a time zone.
>
> http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/neic_b000g7x7_tz.html
>
> But please, don't let my pointing out little technicalities that make
> you look ignorant prevent you from "believing" whatever you like.

Your little technicalities don't touch me you little man. Nor shall I
explain myself to you.
Begone foul wretch.

(Anyone interested in an explanation merely has to e-mail me for it -
and promise not to pass on the information to that detestable fool:
Skywise; the dumbshit.)

***

7.2 2013/04/19 03:05:54 46.182 150.796 122.3 KURIL ISLANDS
I could have got that one too had I been more dilligent. Never mind,
there is still another one to come. The one I was talking about
earlier.

As is the way of all invention, the proof of concept is its own (and
unfortunately only) reward. Some spotty ne'er do well from the
colonies will spot an opening in the market and make a fortune from
it. It was like that with computing, jet engines. Even the technology
to go faster than sound...

Once you tell the world it can be done they soon find out how and
capitalise on it -whatever that "it" is.Which I suppose is, after all,
all that I had intended from my research. It's just that some of them
are so egregious they will then proceed to sue you.

They have that Skywise/Dawlish mindset of smallness and depravity. I
have said of that type of person that has their head stuck so far up
their bums they are blinded by their teeth. The wretch had the
effrontry to be offended.

***
It is interesting that a series of large quakes can occur the way they
do. The explanation for them still eludes us -but then so does that of
tidal theory. However as with tidal theory we can still manage to find
answers enogh to provide solutions.

Meanwhile this spell:
18 April @ 12:31 runs to 25th April. It is a time for volcanic
eruptions and a lot of other severe phenomena. All in their due time
related to other cycles of course. And all rather too complex for me
to root through. It ends with a phase at 19:57 -which is another one
of those.

None of which was how I dropped on the recent events. But then, I have
already explained all that. In fact I have already explained most of
it. It is the same with tropical storms. There is no hard and fast
rule about which part of the globe they take place in. What is
required is the clear path to form. And It is not jpined at the hip to
the ITCZ. That stupid line drawn in the sand is ther by the grace of
climatologists not god.

It is an average, a statistic. Nuts to that.
The fact the it also exists is secondary to qwhy it occurs.
The reason for it is that the sound of the fury of storms approaching
the South Pole changes with the formation or dissolution of the ice
around Antarctica. It all comes down to acoustics.

[Weatherlawyer]

I should have asked the fool what his broken system of 60 years worth
of subduction managed to fetch to the table besides maundering
whimperers.

But I digress.
Sucha spate as is occurring with this spell is sure to stay with us
until Monday. On Tuesday it looks like there may be the makings of a
Tropical Depression which, once the two black clouds under Australia
have detonated or defused by Thursday or Friday, will mature into a
Tropical Storm somewhere or other.

No signo of it on here:
> http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
"No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian
Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere

There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North
Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this
time."

So I guess that means you heard it here foist.
Read me and weep.

[Weatherlawyer]

How about that. You wait weeks for an idiot and then two turn up at
once.

No storm in the offing but something interesting towards Chile I
think, though it could go to any one of the places swarming at the
moment. Look at the North Atlantic for the 25 April 2013.

[Weatherlawyer]

On Apr 20, 3:05 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>

> Such a spate as is occurring with this spell is sure to stay with us

> until Monday. On Tuesday it looks like there may be the makings of a
> Tropical Depression which, once the two black clouds under Australia
> have detonated or defused by Thursday or Friday, will mature into a
> Tropical Storm somewhere or other.
>

> No sign of it on here:

> http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
>
> "No Active Tropical Warnings in the Northwest Pacific, North Indian
> Ocean, Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere
>
> There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North
> Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere
> at this time."
>
> So I guess that means you heard it here foist.
> Read me and weep

"2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA
(WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S. 153.9E., IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST OF PORT
MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING.

BASED ON THE 242334Z ASCAT PASS, WINDS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG DIVERGENCE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM."

Well, I only said it was a chance.

What the Southern Hemisphere model from BOM is showing is a storm
structurer possible for half a planet with a smooth isobar streamline
from the Greanwich meridian to the dateline for.

I can't imagine why I was given firsthand knowledge of this from
whatever higher agency it came from, what with me being a rank amateur
and all time loser/attractor of human divots like Dawlish Oriel and
Skywise and just a basic all around good guy.

But there you are here I am and coming it is.

The anticyclone in the Horus sector of the planet have blocked off
Australian sea channels for the first time as well as holding off the
stuff below Africa. T+74 on here:
> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
if you are interested.

I would like to add sometrhing about earthquakes but because I am an
arsehole, I don't wish to inform Skywise about it. Pity that.

Things get a bit too rough by t+108 with barely a remnant remaining to
t+114. It should go out with a bang at t+120 and since I have time to
try it, I will attempt to give a location for the first time (in a
very long while.)

A blocking High halts west of the Mid Atlantic ridge for most of the
spell:
25 April (19:57) to 2 May (11:14)
> http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

This is an offset anticyclonic spell given to preparing the way for
volcanic activity in Hawaii, the Cascades and the North Atlantic
(mainly Iceland region.)

The following spell is a spot on one fopr Britain. So 2 anticyclonic
spells in a row to go with the first 5 day wave over Australia. I
don't remember if that is drought or flood there. But don't the
Californians get flooding when we have anticyclones over for tea?

Be a good idea to up your insurance if you have a shack there.

On Saturday the 25th (t+60) on the Met Office chart at the time of
writing, we have a large cyclone develop over Iceland out of nowhere:
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html

Lots of interesting stuff then. That will be our tropical storm, no
doubt. (Such as it is.)