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945 mb Low in Norway on We?

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Bjørn Sørheim

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Dec 20, 2004, 4:37:39 PM12/20/04
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The Oceanor site has a low on Wedensday at 12 UT noon as low
as 945 mb! It is placed just off the coast of Lofoten, North Norway.

NOGAPS had it as low as less than 952, now about 960 mb.
It is most often the other way round that NOGAPS in its model runs
is consistently lower than OCEANOR.
Can you say something about the values of this low in the
other models, as I don't have the links to them.
And could it end up as low as 945 mb?
The real nasty one in 1992 was just very slightly lower, and had
a similar path...

Bjørn Sørheim

Elena Saltikoff

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Dec 21, 2004, 4:17:39 PM12/21/04
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KNMI Hirlam says below 950 if I read it right, just at the edge of their
printed area.

http://www.knmi.nl/voorl/weer/hirlam/PL2212.gif

Southcoast of Finland is watching this low very intensely, too, as it
(and the sister low on Friday) will determine whether we can keep this
snow for Christmas...

Elena
ps many links at www.westwind.ch - I used that

Bjørn Sørheim

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Dec 21, 2004, 5:00:11 PM12/21/04
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It has been named 'Finn' by the way...!
I see that NOGAPS now is down to less than 948 mb in
its latest run. So suddenly they are agreeing!
Oceanor is even going down to 942 mb in the evening.

Strange to see, I have observed this many times, that
NOGAPS is jumping back and forth between low values
of the center of the lows and up to much less extreme values
alternatively between runs.
I wonder why the hell it is doing that....?
Is this pure math from the model or is someone deliberately
changing some parameters??
Have you observed this, and can you explain what is going on?

Extreme weather warnings have been isued in Norway, a bit late.
Not over 30 m/s in sustained wind. Up to 45 m/s in gusts.

Bjørn Sørheim,
in Norway

David Mitchell

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Dec 21, 2004, 5:32:21 PM12/21/04
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"Bjørn Sørheim" <bsoe...@NOSPAMonline.no> wrote in message
news:tuges09ajvedc2raq...@4ax.com...
Looking a bit breezy for my trip to Lapland then.
--
David Mitchell, 70m amsl, Langtoft, East Riding of Yorkshire.


RJ Webb

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Dec 21, 2004, 6:49:33 PM12/21/04
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The UKMO chart for +24 (1800 Wed 22nd Dec 2004) has it at 936

Thats one scarey dartboard. Must catch the Norwegian shipping
forecast...

Richard Webb

Bjørn Sørheim

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Dec 21, 2004, 6:53:03 PM12/21/04
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Actually, in the latest run, the OCEANOR site is going
for 932 mb at 18 hours UT tomorrow 22nd!
It is really setting up a very cold northern movement
down across the UK in the coming days.
The low is continuously below 945mb into Friday in
their model...!

Bjørn Sørheim

Bjørn Sørheim

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Dec 21, 2004, 7:09:03 PM12/21/04
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On Wed, 22 Dec 2004 00:52:56 +0100, Bjørn Sørheim
<bsoe...@NOSPAMonline.no> wrote:

>
>Actually, in the latest run, the OCEANOR site is going
>for 932 mb at 18 hours UT tomorrow 22nd!

Sorry, some odd computer problem mixed up the
time. I should be at 06 UT on the 23rd.

Bjørn Sørheim

Michael Mcneil

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Dec 25, 2004, 5:49:47 PM12/25/04
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"Bjørn Sørheim" <bsoe...@NOSPAMonline.no> wrote in message
news:ehdhs0lc5g2fh7imn...@4ax.com

> Actually, in the latest run, the OCEANOR site is going
> for 932 mb at 18 hours UT tomorrow 22nd!
> It is really setting up a very cold northern movement
> down across the UK in the coming days.
> The low is continuously below 945mb into Friday in
> their model...!

Damn it! I wish I had been paying more attention. It isn't as if I had
anything better to do. And I was expecting this sort of development too.

Have you got any records of these severe depressions? Anyone?

> >Strange to see, I have observed this many times, that
> >NOGAPS is jumping back and forth between low values
> >of the center of the lows and up to much less extreme values
> >alternatively between runs.
> >I wonder why the hell it is doing that....?
> >Is this pure math from the model or is someone deliberately
> >changing some parameters??
> >Have you observed this, and can you explain what is going on?

Well a certain thaumaturge of note thinks he already has -a time or two;
on this very site. (This should make Col's day (this and the snow :))

A magnitude 7.8 earthquake NORTH OF MACQUARIE ISLAND has occurred at:
50.24S 160.13E Depth 10km Thu Dec 23 14:59:04 2004 UTC

http://groups-beta.google.com/group/sci.geo.earthquakes/browse_frm/thread/de222ee9234cc7f8

When there is a large quake, a severe volcanic eruption an hurricane
broaching shore or a thunderstorm (new addition to the stable, this
last) with a tendency to form tornadoes and perhaps a deal of positive
lightning (also Sprites) it will do it every time.


--
Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

Michael Mcneil

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Dec 25, 2004, 5:56:25 PM12/25/04
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"Michael Mcneil" <weathe...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:e0ed5a5ced9f59a48de...@mygate.mailgate.org

> A magnitude 7.8 earthquake NORTH OF MACQUARIE ISLAND has occurred at:
> 50.24S 160.13E Depth 10km Thu Dec 23 14:59:04 2004 UTC

> http://groups-beta.google.com/group/sci.geo.earthquakes/browse_frm/thread/de222ee9234cc7f8

> When there is a large quake, a severe volcanic eruption an hurricane
> broaching shore or a thunderstorm (new addition to the stable, this
> last) with a tendency to form tornadoes and perhaps a deal of positive
> lightning (also Sprites) it will do it every time.

It is not over yet too neither.

There are a number of ways to tell this. At the moment one you might
take to heart more easily than the rest is that when there are few but
fairly intense quakes posted on the neic board, and this situation
continues after a major quake, ther eare more due.

If you look back to recent events: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eq_depot/
you will see that they often occur in sets. These set by the way are
related in their angular distance. Often 120 degrees or so apart.

Weatherlawyer

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Dec 26, 2004, 7:23:38 AM12/26/04
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Got a frequency for that? (Presuming they do an English version.)
(Better still a link.)

Weatherlawyer

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Oct 21, 2016, 9:33:01 PM10/21/16
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I had no idea there was a site called SpaceWeather at the time. But I doubt that with my mind-set back then I could have made the connection between volcanoes and solar flares.
For some reason I got bumped off Mailgate but never found out why.

I think he wanted a small subscription (Bloody grasping Eytie we won the war you know!) but by then I was with Giganews just taken over by Google. And struggling to see graphics with an Athlon OEM running Windows ME and a badly set up connection to BT. Oh deepjoymouldy.

> Posted via Mailgate.ORG Server - http://www.Mailgate.ORG

To think I had it in my hand right there and couldn't see it. By damn but the angels are patient with us! (Sorry, god.)
Whoops, nearly forgot the post.
Right:

It looks like things have finally righted themselves after all that volcanic how's your father. The Catherine wheel of warm fronts in the Baltic show a quake is now due. Yes Dawlish madrearieoh, this is for you.

There are going to be a lot of people killed so don't gloat. Distance yourself from it like the others have been doing for the last 12 years. Your head may be full of custard but there is no need for you to have egg on your face.

(But don't let me stop you.)

I have never really got to grip with the location. So until the deadly day I can only provisionally say that it will be about 80 degrees from the centre of the cyclone in or around the Baltic just before the chart is corrected.
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