On Fri, 12 Aug 2022 14:47:34 -0000 (UTC)
Peter <
mys...@prune.org.uk> wrote:
> Ahem A Rivet's Shot <
ste...@eircom.net> wrote in
>
news:20220812131246.559f...@eircom.net:
>
> > On Fri, 12 Aug 2022 09:48:42 -0000 (UTC)
> > Peter <
mys...@prune.org.uk> wrote:
> >
> >> All your reasons for getting off fossil fuels are valid, but your
> >> dismissal of climate change prediction as based on very complex iffy
> >> models is just plain wrong. We can work out the effect of increasing
> >> CO2 emmissions on the climate (and on the ocean) on the back of an
> >> envelope,
> >
> > Yersee many many years ago I sat in on an informal discussion
> > between a bunch of experts on the subject (profs and Phd students
> > mostly in the field). The topic as whether increased cloud cover would
> > increase the average temperature or decrease it. They did not reach
> > any agreement, except to note that they couldn't find out because
> > there was no way to alter just the cloud cover in any kind of
> > experiment even if it would be permitted.
>
> When you drill down into the detail of how global warming will affect the
> weather you come across all sorts of phenomena such as cloud cover. It's
> not one of the big "tipping point" phenomena like ice-sheet breakup or
Yet cloud cover is the biggest single factor in whether the night is
cold or warm.
The devil is in the details, the climate is a mess of interacting
feedback loops some of which may go open ended under some conditions. Ask
ten climatologists why ice ages end (another discussion I've listened to
in fascination many many years ago) and tell me how many answers you get.
A simple analysis suggests that ice ages ought to be stable with all that
white surface reflecting the heat away- but they're not and we don't really
know why.
The thing is that we don't know how these various feedback loops
behave at the extremes or when the interactions get chaotic so we don't know
where our models stop tracking reality.
> The bottom line
> remains, that if you increase the CO2 levels in the atmosphere the
> climate will get warmer and more energetic. This is not new science and
> it's not hard to demonstrate, but the detailed consequences (weather)
> need difficult sums to predict with confidence.
Strangely I have *never* seen anything remotely resembling
convincing evidence of this or any of these 'not hard' demonstrations just
flat assertions that it is well established science.
I have seen direct experimental evidence that CO2 at atmospheric
levels absorbs all the IR there is at its absorption frequencies in a
remarkably short distance (tens of metres IIRC).
I have read well reasoned arguments that the water cycle and cloud
cover are several orders of magnitude more important than the CO2
concentration.
I have seen data that implies it has been hotter than now at times
and that the CO2 level has been way higher than this at times and that
these times do not coincide.
The real point is that I don't care if it's good science or one of
the best con jobs ever because it is the least important reason for doing
the right thing and that has to be done.