Predictions for the new election(s)
librar...@*nospam*btinternet.com
In the UK, there will be no clear winner
Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
majority
Howard's lot will perform direly.
The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
one or two
Clearly the loser will be the Tories. Waking up to their dire state,
and the electoral bias against them, they will choose another leader.
If they choose a modernist, they stand half a chance. They probably
will, if only because the new generation is dominated by half-decent
types rather than the vicious lot that hang around Howard. They may
however elect someone like Davis Davis, and be condemned to another
cycle of humiliation
Which would be a pity, as the following election will be theirs to
lose. Labour will lose the Euro referendum, and Blair will go. Brown
will win, and further statist measures will be enacted. The country
will be ready for a dose of liberalism, probably dressed up as
moderate Toryism.
In the US, Bush will win, comfortably, and the Reps will retain
control of the Senate and Congress. His ludicrous economics and
maladroit foreign policy will make a mess of his second term, and he
will lose the following election handsomely.
--
cheers
www.libraryofalex.com
Wherever book may be burned, men also, in the end, are burned
abelard
libraryofalex@*nospam*btinternet.com
typed:
>will lose the following election handsomely.
term limits :-)
regards...
--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc >850,000 document calls yearly
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
steven x brown
news:baqrk0tk7ga70gf9f...@4ax.com:
> A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
>
> In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>
> Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
> majority
Yep.
> Howard's lot will perform direly.
Far worse than that, unfortunately...
> The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
> better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
> one or two
> Clearly the loser will be the Tories. Waking up to their dire state,
> and the electoral bias against them, they will choose another leader.
> If they choose a modernist, they stand half a chance. They probably
> will, if only because the new generation is dominated by half-decent
> types rather than the vicious lot that hang around Howard. They may
> however elect someone like Davis Davis, and be condemned to another
> cycle of humiliation
>
> Which would be a pity, as the following election will be theirs to
> lose. Labour will lose the Euro referendum, and Blair will go. Brown
> will win, and further statist measures will be enacted. The country
> will be ready for a dose of liberalism, probably dressed up as
> moderate Toryism.
>
> In the US, Bush will win, comfortably, and the Reps will retain
> control of the Senate and Congress. His ludicrous economics and
> maladroit foreign policy will make a mess of his second term, and he
> will lose the following election handsomely.
Er... he can't even run in the following election!!!
(Or were you just 'aving a larf?)
--
steven x brown
David Bowman: "How would you account for this discrepancy
between you and the twin 9000?"
HAL 9000: "Well, I don't think there is any question about it.
It can only be attributable to human error."
Ian Bailey
> libraryofalex@*nospam*btinternet.com wrote in
> news:baqrk0tk7ga70gf9f...@4ax.com:
>
> > A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
> >
> > In the UK, there will be no clear winner
> >
> > Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
> > majority
>
> Yep.
>
> > Howard's lot will perform direly.
>
> Far worse than that, unfortunately...
My prediction is a Labour majority of 70 seats, with the Lib Dems
getting very close to matching the Tories's tally.
Ian
Chris X
"Ian Bailey" <ianb...@orange.net> wrote in message
news:984a2ef1.04091...@posting.google.com...
My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all !
"Money power has divided the British people in order that it may rule them.
We have been divided by the war of class, of party, and of faction. Britons
who should be brothers have fought each other and alien finance has
conquered. Therefore to our fellow Britons we say 'Unite!'. Britain united
is invincible and irresistible!"
http://www.bnp.org.uk
http://www.bnp.org.uk/policies.html
http://www.bnp.org.uk/policy/policy_forum.htm
http://www.bnp.org.uk/freedom/regions/wearenot.html
http://www.bnp.org.uk/meet.html
http://www.bnp.org.uk/faq.html
http://www.nowarforisrael.com
http://www.boycottusa.org/usa_goods.htm
Roger Dewhurst
<libraryofalex@*nospam*btinternet.com> wrote in message
news:baqrk0tk7ga70gf9f...@4ax.com...
> A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
>
> In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>
> Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
> majority
>
> Howard's lot will perform direly.
>
> The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
> better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
> one or two
>
> Clearly the loser will be the Tories. Waking up to their dire state,
> and the electoral bias against them, they will choose another leader.
> If they choose a modernist, they stand half a chance.
Britain has had a decade or so of Tweedledum and Tweedledee. Time for an
Enoch Powell. A pity that he is dead.
R
librar...@*nospam*btinternet.com
wrote:
>> In the US, Bush will win, comfortably, and the Reps will retain
>> control of the Senate and Congress. His ludicrous economics and
>> maladroit foreign policy will make a mess of his second term, and he
>> will lose the following election handsomely.
>
>Er... he can't even run in the following election!!!
>
>(Or were you just 'aving a larf?)
You're right. The Republicans
Paul Hyett
>A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
>
>In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>
>Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
>majority
>
>Howard's lot will perform direly.
Doesn't add up - Blair's majority could only drop dramatically via Tory
wins. There are too few Lab/LD marginals for them to make a significant
difference (just 11 that could change on even a 12% swing).
>
>The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
>better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
>one or two
I can't see any party gaining seats that hasn't had any before.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
steven x brown
news:984a2ef1.04091...@posting.google.com:
Sounds about right. I hate the LibDems (too much sitting on the fence)
but they're becoming joint second party.
steven x brown
news:IpWdnUiIwot...@giganews.com:
>
> "Ian Bailey" <ianb...@orange.net> wrote in message
> news:984a2ef1.04091...@posting.google.com...
>> steven x brown <nworbx...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
>> news:<Xns9569F3E20146Ebg...@130.133.1.4>...
>>> libraryofalex@*nospam*btinternet.com wrote in
>>> news:baqrk0tk7ga70gf9f...@4ax.com:
>>>
>>> > A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
>>> >
>>> > In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>>> >
>>> > Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a
>>> > much-reduced majority
>>>
>>> Yep.
>>>
>>> > Howard's lot will perform direly.
>>>
>>> Far worse than that, unfortunately...
>>
>> My prediction is a Labour majority of 70 seats, with the Lib Dems
>> getting very close to matching the Tories's tally.
>
> My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all !
So a BNP goverment next year then? Is that your prediction?
steven x brown
news:gbtsk01p4hvoes1ib...@4ax.com:
> On 19 Sep 2004 22:58:27 GMT, steven x brown <nworbx...@yahoo.co.uk>
> wrote:
>
>>> In the US, Bush will win, comfortably, and the Reps will retain
>>> control of the Senate and Congress. His ludicrous economics and
>>> maladroit foreign policy will make a mess of his second term, and he
>>> will lose the following election handsomely.
>>
>>Er... he can't even run in the following election!!!
>>
>>(Or were you just 'aving a larf?)
>
> You're right. The Republicans
Mmmm. I fancy Condoleezza Rice...
Sorry, just had to get that off my chest! :-D
librar...@*nospam*btinternet.com
<p...@nojunkmailplease.co.uk> wrote:
>>In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>>
>>Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
>>majority
>>
>>Howard's lot will perform direly.
>
>Doesn't add up - Blair's majority could only drop dramatically via Tory
>wins. There are too few Lab/LD marginals for them to make a significant
>difference (just 11 that could change on even a 12% swing).
Agreed. Though 12% isn't impossible by any stretch. My guess is that
the vote will fall much farther than the majority. But even fairly
large gains by Howard will still be 'dire', unless they can run Labour
close
>>The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
>>better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
>>one or two
>
>I can't see any party gaining seats that hasn't had any before.
Hard to know. I reckon respect has half a chance. There's a lot of
Labour folks keen to give Blair a bloody nose
Stephen Glynn
> "Ian Bailey" <ianb...@orange.net> wrote in message
> news:984a2ef1.04091...@posting.google.com...
>
>>steven x brown <nworbx...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
>>news:<Xns9569F3E20146Ebg...@130.133.1.4>...
>>
>>>libraryofalex@*nospam*btinternet.com wrote in
>>>news:baqrk0tk7ga70gf9f...@4ax.com:
>>>
>>>
>>>>A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
>>>>
>>>>In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>>>>
>>>>Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
>>>>majority
>>>
>>>Yep.
>>>
>>>
>>>>Howard's lot will perform direly.
>>>
>>>Far worse than that, unfortunately...
>>
>>My prediction is a Labour majority of 70 seats, with the Lib Dems
>>getting very close to matching the Tories's tally.
>
>
> My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all !
>
As you'll recall, Chris, you and I already have a £50 bet on whether or
not the BNP will win at least one seat in the forthcoming general election.
Care to make it £100 on if they'll win two or more seats?
Steve
sean
>
> In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>
> Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
> majority
>
> Howard's lot will perform direly.
If Labour lose a lot of votes, then the Conservatives will gain a lot
of seats, even if their own vote doesn't increase. Most Labour
marginal seats have the Conservatives in clear second place.
>
> The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
> better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
> one or two
LD's should gain seats. Kilroy could well get elected, and maybe an
independent or two.
>
> Clearly the loser will be the Tories. Waking up to their dire state,
> and the electoral bias against them, they will choose another leader.
> If they choose a modernist, they stand half a chance. They probably
> will, if only because the new generation is dominated by half-decent
> types rather than the vicious lot that hang around Howard. They may
> however elect someone like Davis Davis, and be condemned to another
> cycle of humiliation
My prediction is that the Conservatives will win c.220 seats and
Howard will remain leader.
>
>
librar...@*nospam*btinternet.com
>> In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>>
>> Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
>> majority
>>
>> Howard's lot will perform direly.
>
>If Labour lose a lot of votes, then the Conservatives will gain a lot
>of seats, even if their own vote doesn't increase. Most Labour
>marginal seats have the Conservatives in clear second place.
OK. 2 points
1) Can Labour lose a lot of votes, and the Tories still not win them
2) I think that the Tories will probably win more seats than they
currently have. This will still leave them doing little more than
keeping them in second - i.e. they will not challenge for government.
That's dire.
>> The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
>> better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
>> one or two
>
>LD's should gain seats. Kilroy could well get elected, and maybe an
>independent or two.
Interesting
>> Clearly the loser will be the Tories. Waking up to their dire state,
>> and the electoral bias against them, they will choose another leader.
>> If they choose a modernist, they stand half a chance. They probably
>> will, if only because the new generation is dominated by half-decent
>> types rather than the vicious lot that hang around Howard. They may
>> however elect someone like Davis Davis, and be condemned to another
>> cycle of humiliation
>
>My prediction is that the Conservatives will win c.220 seats and
>Howard will remain leader.
It is important that you are wrong
abelard
<p...@nojunkmailplease.co.uk>
typed:
>In uk.politics.misc on Sun, 19 Sep 2004 at 20:30:00, wrote :
>>A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
>>
>>In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>>
>>Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
>>majority
>>
>>Howard's lot will perform direly.
>
>Doesn't add up - Blair's majority could only drop dramatically via Tory
>wins. There are too few Lab/LD marginals for them to make a significant
>difference (just 11 that could change on even a 12% swing).
and if tactical voting goes big time?
Chris X
"Stephen Glynn" <stephe...@ntlworld.com> wrote in message
news:2r81dnF...@uni-berlin.de...
No, let's keep things as agreed.
steven x brown
LOL!!!!!!!!!! What happened to 'we will slaughter them all'?!??! What a
prat you are!
Chris X
> "Chris X" <Chr...@postmaster.co.uk> wrote in
> news:woednXxocf2...@giganews.com:
>> "Stephen Glynn" <stephe...@ntlworld.com> wrote in message
>> news:2r81dnF...@uni-berlin.de...
>>> Chris X wrote:
>
>>>> My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all !
>>>>
>>>
>>> As you'll recall, Chris, you and I already have a £50 bet on whether
>>> or not the BNP will win at least one seat in the forthcoming general
>>> election.
>>>
>>> Care to make it £100 on if they'll win two or more seats?
>>
>> No, let's keep things as agreed.
>
> LOL!!!!!!!!!! What happened to 'we will slaughter them all'?!??!
Nothing.
>What a
> prat I am!
We're only too well aware of that, Stevie.
Paul Hyett
>>
>>Doesn't add up - Blair's majority could only drop dramatically via Tory
>>wins. There are too few Lab/LD marginals for them to make a significant
>>difference (just 11 that could change on even a 12% swing).
Oops, forgot to count those where they aren't in 2nd place, but still
fairly close - make that 16.
>
>Agreed. Though 12% isn't impossible by any stretch.
I thought I was being rather generous to the LD's with that 12% figure
actually.
If you *really* push the boat out and say 15% swing, the number of
potential seat changes rises to 41 (but 23 of those would have to be
from 3rd place (or lower). Mostly from behind the Tories, who are hardly
likely to step aside from seats they have a fair chance of picking up.
Personally, I'd be very surprised if the LD's picked up more than a
handful of seats from Labour.
They might well even lose a few back to the Tories - Cheltenham for
instance, where Nigel Jones has stepped down, and the LD's have lost
overall control of the council.
>My guess is that
>the vote will fall much farther than the majority.
My feeling too.
>
>>>The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
>>>better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
>>>one or two
>>
>>I can't see any party gaining seats that hasn't had any before.
>
>Hard to know. I reckon respect has half a chance.
Unlikely in the extreme - we're talking of an election where the whole
raft of policies is under scrutiny, not just one issue.
>There's a lot of
>Labour folks keen to give Blair a bloody nose
>
I'm amongst them - but not over the Iraq war. I'm still convinced we did
the right thing in toppling Saddam - our only failing is in not
deploying enough forces to wipe out the militants by sheer military
might.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Paul Hyett
>>
>>Doesn't add up - Blair's majority could only drop dramatically via Tory
>>wins. There are too few Lab/LD marginals for them to make a significant
>>difference (just 11 that could change on even a 12% swing).
>
>and if tactical voting goes big time?
My 12% figure allows for a lot of tactical voting - but see elsewhere in
the thread.
Don't forget the Tory vote is already at a low ebb - only the really
loyal ones stuck with them in 1997 & 2001, so I doubt there's much scope
for a tactical squeeze there, especially when it would benefit the pro-
EU LD's.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Paul Hyett
>>
>> The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
>> better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
>> one or two
>
>LD's should gain seats. Kilroy could well get elected
Where is he planning to stand?
>, and maybe an
>independent or two.
Which areas have sufficiently strong local issues?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
sean
> On Mon, 20 Sep 2004 07:57:47 +0100, Paul Hyett
> <p...@nojunkmailplease.co.uk>
>
> typed:
>
> >In uk.politics.misc on Sun, 19 Sep 2004 at 20:30:00, wrote :
> >>A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
> >>
> >>In the UK, there will be no clear winner
> >>
> >>Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
> >>majority
> >>
> >>Howard's lot will perform direly.
> >
> >Doesn't add up - Blair's majority could only drop dramatically via Tory
> >wins. There are too few Lab/LD marginals for them to make a significant
> >difference (just 11 that could change on even a 12% swing).
>
> and if tactical voting goes big time?
>
> regards...
>
the Conservatives. It is quite possible that some people will just
vote for whichever candidate can best defeat the sitting Labour MP
this time round.
librar...@*nospam*btinternet.com
<p...@nojunkmailplease.co.uk> wrote:
[snip useful additions]
>>My guess is that
>>the vote will fall much farther than the majority.
>
>My feeling too.
>>
>>>>The protest parties; LDs, BNP, UKIP, Respec', Green will do marginally
>>>>better. The LDs will probably gain seats, the others might even get
>>>>one or two
>>>
>>>I can't see any party gaining seats that hasn't had any before.
>>
>>Hard to know. I reckon respect has half a chance.
>
>Unlikely in the extreme - we're talking of an election where the whole
>raft of policies is under scrutiny, not just one issue.
Agreed. However, I think that there's a lot of people prepared to vote
on Iraq alone
>>There's a lot of
>>Labour folks keen to give Blair a bloody nose
>>
>I'm amongst them - but not over the Iraq war. I'm still convinced we did
>the right thing in toppling Saddam - our only failing is in not
>deploying enough forces to wipe out the militants by sheer military
>might.
I doubt that was ever possible, but there are many problems in
post-war Iraq that better planning could have mitigated
abelard
typed:
>abelard <abel...@abelard.org> wrote in message news:<gmqtk0h1psa76lhta...@4ax.com>...
>> On Mon, 20 Sep 2004 07:57:47 +0100, Paul Hyett
>> <p...@nojunkmailplease.co.uk>
>>
>> typed:
>>
>> >In uk.politics.misc on Sun, 19 Sep 2004 at 20:30:00, wrote :
>> >>A few thoughts on two upcoming elections
>> >>
>> >>In the UK, there will be no clear winner
>> >>
>> >>Blair will win with a much-reduced vote, and probably a much-reduced
>> >>majority
>> >>
>> >>Howard's lot will perform direly.
>> >
>> >Doesn't add up - Blair's majority could only drop dramatically via Tory
>> >wins. There are too few Lab/LD marginals for them to make a significant
>> >difference (just 11 that could change on even a 12% swing).
>>
>> and if tactical voting goes big time?
>>
>> regards...
>>
>>One should not assume that tactical voting will always work against
>the Conservatives.
it will if they are being increasingly marginalised....
removing the member for folkestone would be simple as long as
the other two parties worked together....
in canada the conservative vote shrunk to the point they had 2? mps left..
i see no good reason to suppose the tories in the uk could not get into a
similar mess if they continue not to learn....
i note the disgusting lib dems are slowly in cowardly manner attempting
to move onto the libertarian ground.....
if they ever dare...and drop the eurofanaticism and the stv neurosis i
could easily see them sweeping the tory party away....
> It is quite possible that some people will just
>vote for whichever candidate can best defeat the sitting Labour MP
>this time round.
i think you are dreaming...believing what you want to believe....
there is no realistic alternative to labour at present...and i speak
as a long term committed tory who regards socialism as a very
dangerous mental disease....
abelard
<p...@nojunkmailplease.co.uk>
typed:
>In uk.politics.misc on Mon, 20 Sep 2004 at 16:36:27, abelard wrote :
>>>
>>>Doesn't add up - Blair's majority could only drop dramatically via Tory
>>>wins. There are too few Lab/LD marginals for them to make a significant
>>>difference (just 11 that could change on even a 12% swing).
>>
>>and if tactical voting goes big time?
>
>My 12% figure allows for a lot of tactical voting -
see other reply at this place.....
> but see elsewhere in
>the thread.
>
>Don't forget the Tory vote is already at a low ebb - only the really
>loyal ones stuck with them in 1997 & 2001, so I doubt there's much scope
>for a tactical squeeze there, especially when it would benefit the pro-
>EU LD's.
indeed...if the lib dems retreated from the euro fanaticism and stv they
would imv finish off the tories in their present state....
it is obvious bliar hates the tory party...and it is his life's clear
ambition to destroy the party....he is also tentatively moving into
the liberal ground....
the tories are simply crazy....they have been taken over by a small
group of socialist and the seem paralysed with fear (i don't know
if this is quite what lib is on about)
the party is gradually dying like a limb that has had the blood
supply cut off....no one sane or intelligent can vote for them in their
current state....
this is very troubling to me...
i even wonder at times whether their whole intent is not to win and to
leave bliar a free road to force europe upon the nation....
MikeinCamden
simply by doing little except control growth of the state.
>I'm amongst them - but not over the Iraq war. I'm still convinced we did
the right thing in toppling Saddam - our only failing is in not
deploying enough forces to wipe out the militants by sheer military
might.>
Problem with this is that in the process you radicalise even more people
against you. The war is being fought in their homeland.
Paul Hyett
>>
>>Unlikely in the extreme - we're talking of an election where the whole
>>raft of policies is under scrutiny, not just one issue.
>
>Agreed. However, I think that there's a lot of people prepared to vote
>on Iraq alone
How many of those *aren't* Muslims though...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
Paul Hyett
:
>
>>I'm amongst them - but not over the Iraq war. I'm still convinced we did
>the right thing in toppling Saddam - our only failing is in not
>deploying enough forces to wipe out the militants by sheer military
>might.>
>
>Problem with this is that in the process you radicalise even more people
>against you. The war is being fought in their homeland.
And there were we, expecting them to be *grateful* for removing
Saddam...
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham
librar...@*nospam*btinternet.com
<p...@nojunkmailplease.co.uk> wrote:
>>>Unlikely in the extreme - we're talking of an election where the whole
>>>raft of policies is under scrutiny, not just one issue.
>>
>>Agreed. However, I think that there's a lot of people prepared to vote
>>on Iraq alone
>
>How many of those *aren't* Muslims though...
Hard to know until the election. But, in some constituencies, the
Muslim vote matters