"Its different this time". They said the same before and during the last crash.
Crowley
tell us : OK we have a massive house price bubble but there won't be a
crash because "its different this time" .
Funny how they were often saying the same thing during the last crash
when prices fell between 20 and 40% and more in some areas between 1989
and 1995.
See a familiar pattern ?........
The Sunday Times
SUN 10 JAN 1988
Property: New moves set for the home front - Prices will sit quietly at
t he eye
of a housing storm set to rampage through 1988
THE YEAR ahead will reveal some of the most sweeping changes in the
field of
housing that the country has seen since the end of the first world war
when the
Homes For Heroes ideal was born and slum clearance and council housing
began to
spread across...
The Times
TUE 19 JAN 1988
Slow sellers push up house prices
The reluctance of house owners to sell is causing a shortgage of supply
which
could push up property prices, the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors says
in its survey for the quarter to the end of December, published today.
There is
a general s...
The Sunday Times
SUN 07 FEB 1988
Travel (Cruising): Tips that add to the price tag - House rules
AMERICANS just love to tip; the British hate the whole embarrassing
procedure.
Of all the cultural differences between us, this one comes closest to
explaining
why Americans have taken to cruising holidays so enthusiastically while
the
British regard...
The Sunday Times
SUN 07 FEB 1988
Property: When pay can't tip the house price scale
MORE THAN half the men working full-time and 80% of full-time working
women in
London earn less than the amount needed to buy the cheapest houses in
the
capital, according to a report from the London Research Centre. Using
government
earnings figures...
The Times
FRI 12 FEB 1988
Business Roundup: Rising house prices push Ward up 49
Ward Holdings, the Kent property developer which has benefited from
booming
house prices, the completion of the M25 and the prospect that the
Channel Tunnel
will swell demand for property in Kent, has reported another sharp rise
in
profits, with last...
The Times
WED 17 FEB 1988
Special Report on Thetford (7): Built-in problems of house-price rises
The boom has brought rising house prices, by Norfolk standards. Prices
rose by
30 per cent last year and as more and more people want to live in the
town,
including those wishing to retire there, the forecast for this year is
a further
25 per cent. ...
The Times
SAT 05 MAR 1988
House prices increase by 16.9 percent
House prices increased by 16.9 per cent in the year to the end of
February,
compared with 16.3 per cent to the end of January, the Halifax Building
Society
announced yesterday. It said this increase, which shows the property
market
generally has not ...
The Times
THU 10 MAR 1988
Rising house prices lift property group to 4 million pounds
An improving sales mix combined with rising house prices boosted pretax
profits
at Federated Housing from Pounds 2.5 million to Pounds 4.4 million in
the year
to December 1987. Average selling prices were Pounds 60,000, compared
with
Pounds 47, 000 d...
The Times
SAT 19 MAR 1988
Out and About: Elegance at a price - Bristol's Georgian House Museum
Bristol's Georgian House Museum gives a fascinating glimpse of life in
England's
most elegant era. Despite the best endeavours of the Luftwaffe and the
planning
authorities, Bristol still has a great deal of its history above
ground, in the
form of a...
The Times
TUE 05 APR 1988
House price rises slow in London
Rising house prices in areas surrounding London appear to have helped
to take
the pressure off prices in the capital, which last year rose by 28.9
per cent.
In the past three months the rise in Greater London was only 3.5 per
cent, less
than the nati...
The Sunday Times
SUN 10 APR 1988
Personal Finance: House price gap widens
THE house-price boom has boosted wealth in London and southeast England
by
Pounds 39 billion since 1984, while the northwest and Scotland are
poorer by
Pounds 18 billion, according to a recent study by Tom McRae, professor
of
finance at the Universit...
The Times
FRI 06 MAY 1988
North-South gap on house prices 'is set to narrow'
The North-South gap on house prices has reached its peak and will begin
to
narrow as towns in the North catch up with their expensive counterparts
in the
South, a report published yesterday by Black Horse Relocation said. One
of the
main reasons is t...
The Sunday Times
SUN 08 MAY 1988
Poll tax will boost house prices
A POLL tax will sent house prices rocketing by an average of 20% across
the
country, according to two new independent studies, write David Hughes
and
Christopher Smallwood. The forecast, which is four times higher than
the
government's own prediction...
The Times
FRI 20 MAY 1988
House prices up 50%; Norwich; Focus
One inevitable side-effect of Norwich's having joined the south-east
economic
boom is a sharp rise in house prices. According to Arnold Son &
Hockley, a firm
of chartered surveyors, there have been increases of up to 50 per cent
in the
last year alo...
The Times
TUE 24 MAY 1988
Prices boom as property 'cauldron' bubbles; House price rises
House prices increased by up to 50per cent in the Hereford area in the
past 12
months and are rising by 40per cent a year in East Anglia, estate
agents report
in a survey published today by the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors.
They are examp...
The Times
SAT 28 MAY 1988
30m pound house price surprises agents; The Holme in Regent's Park
The Kuwaiti owner of The Holme in Regent's Park, London, one of the
most
expensive houses in the country, is intending to sell the house
quietly, having
spent three years restoring it under the supervision of the Crown
Estate
Commissioners and making...
The Times
MON 13 JUN 1988
Poll tax may lift house prices 20%
The Government's planned community charge will push up house prices
sharply,
according to a report published today. The report, written by Mr Peter
Spencer,
a former Treasury economist now with the securities house Credit Suisse
First
Boston, says th...
The Times
TUE 28 JUN 1988
Builders appeal for more land as house prices soar again
Britain's housebuilders appealed yesterday for more land to be released
as
estate agents and council planners provided yet more evidence of a
booming
market. Mr Alan Cherry, president of the House-Builders Federation,
expressed
``grave concern'' that...
The Times
SAT 02 JUL 1988
House-rich;House prices;Family Money
Soon no area of the country will be immune from ``rampaging''
house-price
increases, says the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The
institution
says that more than half of the 188 estate agents who contributed to
its survey
of prices for the...
The Times
THU 07 JUL 1988
Rising house prices may send inflation through the roof
If the weather or the prospect of in terminable delays at airports are
not
enough to depress you, you might like to try the balance of payments
(in
deepening deficit) or the rate of inflation (rising). I would choose
inflation
because it is more top...
The Times
FRI 29 JUL 1988
Action on gazumping;House prices
The professions involved in house transfer have set up their own
working party
to consider estate agency and issues including gazumping. The working
party,
initiated by Mr Michael Clark, former president of the Royal
Institution of
Chartered Surveyor...
The Times
MON 01 AUG 1988
House price boom `to end next year'
The house price boom will end next year after peaking on increases of
25 to 30
per cent this year, but prices are unlikely to fall in real terms. The
strongest
influence in dampening prices will be the gradual slowing of real
personal
disposable inc...
The Times
FRI 05 AUG 1988
House price rises may be past peak
House price rises may have peaked after increasing by 28per cent
throughout
Britain in a year, the Halifax Building Society said yesterday. Many
regions had
seen prices rise by more than 40per cent in the year to last month,
with
property in East An...
The Times
THU 11 AUG 1988
English rushing to buy Scots homes;House prices in Scotland are soaring
House prices in many parts of Scotland are soaring with so-called
``blue chip''
properties in Edinburgh and country houses in Perthshire and the
Borders
recording spectacular rises. Many houses, such as Georgian apartments
in
Edinburgh's New Town, ar...
The Times
FRI 12 AUG 1988
Rising house prices `holding back firms in the South-east'
Rising house prices and a lack of rented accommodation in London and
the
South-east is retarding companies' growth, according to the
Confederation of
British Industry. Many companies are spending big sums to attract
workers from
regions where housing...
The Times
SAT 20 AUG 1988
Hebden Bridge riding high thanks to trains
The little town of Hebden Bridge in West Yorkshire, which achieved an
unhappy
prominence in the 1970s, is now enjoying a housing price boom.
Long-distance
commuters to London have been lured by relatively near fast rail links
to the
South. The town ...
The Sunday Times
SUN 21 AUG 1988
Let the nation retire to Dungloation;House Prices
''I DON'T give a damn how much your house is worth'' is one of the more
graphic
T-shirts now doing the rounds. I sympathise. The house-price spiral
must be
outright winner as most tedious conversation topic of 1988. Throughout
the land,
people ar...
The Times
TUE 06 SEP 1988
House price inflation 'is likely to fall sharply' next year
House price inflation will fall sharply next year, the Halifax Building
Society
predicted in its latest survey published yesterday. Figures from the
Halifax
last month showed house prices had risen nationally by an annual 30.7
per cent.
However, it ...
The Times
SAT 17 SEP 1988
Country house prices `to rise further'
Country house prices in Britain have risen by 33 per cent so far this
year and
are likely to increase further this autumn, according to Savills, the
estate
agents. A report on country properties at the middle and top end of the
market
shows that fore...
The Sunday Times
SUN 18 SEP 1988
Place your bets on house prices
DINNER-PARTY pundits who like to predict house prices can now back
their
forecasts without buying a single property. IG Index, a specialist
financial
bookmaker which takes bets on everything from pork-belly futures to the
FT-SE
100 index, tomorrow i...
The Times
SAT 24 SEP 1988
Jitters on house prices
If you have your minds on higher things such as a 13 per cent mortgage
rate I
bring tidings of great joy. Interest rates will be down by January,
private
investors will be venturing back into the stock market in 18 months,
and we
shall all be wonderi...
The Times
SAT 24 SEP 1988
Jitters on house prices;Fall on the way, say the experts
House prices in London and the South-East are actually about to fall.
After
months in which the pundits have been warning of a slow-down in house
price
rises, the latest round of mortgage increases that has boosted loan
rates to
12.75 per cent, 13 p...
The Sunday Times
SUN 25 SEP 1988
House prices slow rapidly
RISING mortgage rates are bad news for the property market. Many
sellers a re
not going to get the prices they would have got for their homes a few
months
ago. ``For sale'' boards are reappearing in areas where they had almost
become
museum pieces....
The Times
TUE 27 SEP 1988
House prices
House prices are a deeply religious issue, estate agents greedy and
sinful, and
building bungalows should be banned, according to a Devon rector . The
Rev Barry
Swift, of Axminster, says pensioners buying retirement homes at
inflated prices
are drivi...
The Times
TUE 11 OCT 1988
Pilgrim share price leaps on confirmation of offer
Williams Holdings yesterday confirmed stock market speculation by
launching an
agreed Pounds 330 million bid for Pilgrim House, the electrical,
electronic and
fire protection group. The fast-growing industrial conglomerate, built
up by Mr
Nigel Rudd ...
The Times
WED 19 OCT 1988
Students pay price of housing shortage
A corner where Mr Stuart Cromer keeps his high-fi was used until last
summer by
a number of dipsomaniacs, glue sniffers and punk rockers of no fixed
abode as a
lavatory. ``When we started disinfecting the walls and pulling up the
carpet we
found that...
The Times
SAT 29 OCT 1988
Long distance season tickets go up by 21%
The increase in fares is bound to have a dampening effect on house
price
increases in the middle distance commuter areas, according to local
estate
agents . Ipswich has become increasingly popular as a commuter town
recently,
and by early this year p...
The Sunday Times
SUN 30 OCT 1988
Holding the key to cut-price pleasure
JENNY BUDDEN, her husband Alan and two children have been swapping
their
400-year-old cottage near Haslemere in Surrey for the past 10 years.
``I
wouldn't consider going on holiday any other way. Instead of going to
resorts,
where everyone's a tour...
The Times
SAT 05 NOV 1988
House prices crumble
The great house-price halt is under way and London and the South-East
are in the
vanguard. The Halifax Building society reports that prices in these
regions did
not rise during October, although house prices in other areas continued
to rise.
The ave...
The Sunday Times
SUN 06 NOV 1988
House prices will languish until incomes catch up
THE house-price boom is over and that's official. Statistics published
by the
Halifax building society last week reveal that price rises throughout
the
southern half of England have come to a halt. Indeed, with an average
zero
increase during Octobe...
The Times
SAT 03 DEC 1988
Prices subside as Nigel puts his house in order
The first ``success'' of the tight monetary policy of the Chancellor,
Mr Nigel
Lawson, is in the housing market where the boom in prices is already
passing
into history. Mortgage rates will go up again in January in response to
the
latest increase i...
The Times
WED 07 DEC 1988
Housing slows
The rise in house prices is likely to slow to less than 5per cent by
the end of
next year, the Halifax Building Society forecast in its latest survey,
published
yesterday. The Halifax house price index showed prices increased
nationally by
1.7 per ce...
The Sunday Times
SUN 11 DEC 1988
Exodus as Londoners are blitzed by house prices
RECORD house prices are encouraging people to leave London and the
southea st at
a rate not seen since the blitz of the second world war. About 100,000
more
people will leave the southeast this year than will move into the
region,
according to a stud... 1989 - HISTORICAL NEWS REPORTS ON HOUSE PRICES
1989
The Sunday Times
SUN 01 JAN 1989
Falling prices put couples in two-home trap;House-buying;North-south
divided
BARRIE and Sandra Grossman bought the house of their dreams in June.
But six
months later they are thinking about selling it, having never moved in,
their
hopes shattered by the slump in the property market. Their old home
remains
unsold, while inte...
The Times
TUE 03 JAN 1989
Agents optimistic about house prices
A leading national firm of estate agents believes a collapse in the
property
market in 1989 is highly unlikely. Strutt and Parker has completed a
review of
1988 trends, dominated by panic buying in the summer, then a London-led
slowdown
in the last q...
The Times
FRI 06 JAN 1989
Shortage of teachers in Essex linked to soaring house prices
Essex faces a chronic shortages of teachers because of soaring house
prices,
according to a survey by the National Association of
Schoolmasters/Union of
Women Teachers. Eight per cent of teachers are moving from the Basildon
and
mid-Essex area to ot...
The Times
WED 11 JAN 1989
A realistic new year;House prices;Residential Property
The owner of a two-bedroom flat in St John's Wood, London, was advised
by an
estate agent last summer to offer it at Pounds 170,000. After five
months of
frustration he has asked Roy Brooks to find a buyer at the considerably
lower
price of Pounds 1...
The Times
WED 08 FEB 1989
House prices `set to fall everywhere'
House prices will fall by between 10 and 20 per cent over the next two
years,
and the housing market may remain weak for some time after that,
according to
two bank reports out today. Morgan Grenfell, the merchant bank, says in
Housing
Slump - the Ne...
The Sunday Times
SUN 26 FEB 1989
Pounds 800,000 price on house Turner painted;Property
Living in a Turner painting may be a novel experience, but it is also
rather
expensive. This magnificent Georgian house in Barnes, left, which was
painted by
Turner in 1826, is little changed, though houses have mushroomed around
it
and...
The Times
MON 06 MAR 1989
House prices recover
House prices, suffering from the effects of interest rate increases,
showed a
slight recovery in February, rising by 1.6 per cent, compared with a
fall of 0.8
per cent in January, Halifax Building Society reports today. The index
shows
that over the...
The Times
WED 08 MAR 1989
Agents forecast up to 20% rise in house prices near route;Channel
tunnel rail
link
Property prices in Kent in areas within reach of stations on the
Channel tunnel
rail link are likely to rise by 10 to 20 per cent because of improved
access to
London the line will bring, according to estate agents in the county.
They
believe that th...
The Times
WED 22 MAR 1989
Marking time;House prices in Britain
House prices in Britain are likely to stagnate this year, the Halifax
Building
Society said yesterday. It expects high demand in the Midlands and
North but a
slowing down in the South.
The Times
FRI 24 MAR 1989
Priced-out families `need help';Housing
Increasing pressure for rural housing to be used as second, retirement
and
commuter homes is destroying the fabric of traditional village life, a
report
out yesterday says. The resulting conflict of interests between the
local
population and the infl...
The Times
WED 29 MAR 1989
House trend bucked;Quarterly prices
Property in the north of England is showing steady price increases
against the
trend elsewhere, according to the Halifax Building Society. The average
quarterly price change is zero, varying from falls of 5 per cent to
rises of 5
per cent. In contra...
The Times
FRI 07 APR 1989
North booms;House prices
House prices in northern areas, including the North-west, Yorkshire and
Humberside, increased by 10 per cent in the last three months compared
with a
rise of only 1 per cent in the London area, the Nationwide Anglia
Building
Society's new house marke...
The Times
MON 10 APR 1989
10% house price rise forecast
House prices in Britain could rise by up to 10 per cent this year,
although the
South of England will see only a modest if any increase, it is
predicted in a
report published today by the House Builders' Federation. Even in the
South,
however, house ...
The Times
WED 12 APR 1989
Housing reverses North-South divide;House price survey
The North-South housing divide, which favoured the South last year, has
been
reversed, the Halifax Building Society reports in its house price
survey
yesterday. Prices took off in the South in the first quarter of last
year while
the economic boom wa...
The Sunday Times
SUN 16 APR 1989
House prices still rise in the north;Personal Finance
HOUSE PRICES in London and southeast England have fallen during the
last
quarter, according to figures published by both the Halifax and the
Nationwide
building societies. But the fall has been tiny. Nationwide's figures
show a 0.2%
decrease for old...
The Times
TUE 25 APR 1989
House owners have to cut prices to secure sale
House owners in many parts of the country are lowering the price of
their homes
in order to sell them, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
(RICS)
states in its survey for the quarter ending in March, published today.
Of 155
agents contributi...
The Times
TUE 23 MAY 1989
High house prices
People who ask unrealistically high prices for houses are probably the
main
reason for the slow property market, Mr Peter Miller, for the Royal
Institution
of Chartered Surveyors, says in a comment on its latest house price
survey
published today. It...
The Times
WED 07 JUN 1989
Bigger rise;House prices
UK House prices rose by 1.7per cent last month compared with 1.2per
cent in
April, in spite of stagnant or falling prices in the Midlands and
South, the
Halifax Building Society said yesterday. HOME NEWS
The Times
SAT 01 JUL 1989
Owners drop house prices by 20% to encourage sales
House prices are being cut by thousands of pounds to sell properties
that have
been on estate agents' books since last year. Vendors, still influenced
by last
summer's prices, are having to reduce asking prices by as much as 20per
cent to
sell, accor...
The Times
SAT 08 JUL 1989
Quotient warning hits price;Computer software house
Shares in Quotient, the USM-quoted financial computer software house
formerly
known as the CCF Group, tumbled by 17p, to 80p, as the group announced
its
second profits warning. At the annual meeting in May, Mr Tim Simon, the
chairman, gave warning of...
The Times
TUE 11 JUL 1989
House prices in doldrums
House prices fell throughout the South of England in the second quarter
of the
year while continuing to rise in the North and Scotland. There are
signs,
however, that even there prices have reached their peak and are slowing
down,
the Halifax Buildin...
The Times
TUE 25 JUL 1989
Buyers cash in by cutting their offers;House prices
Gazundering, a practice in which house-buyers put in a lower offer just
before
exchanging contracts after previously agreeing a price, is becoming
increasing
common, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reports in its
latest house
price surve...
The Times
WED 26 JUL 1989
Tunnel line cuts price of houses;Channel tunnel
A number of properties blighted by their closeness to the Channel
tunnel
terminal at Cheriton in Kent have been put up for sale at 20 per cent
below
market value. The 26 properties are in the villages of Newington, Peene
and
Frogholt and are being so...
The Times
FRI 04 AUG 1989
All house prices `may fall'
House prices throughout the country could fall next year, the Halifax
Building
Society says in its latest survey. It is the first Halifax price index
to
forecast a fall in prices. Until now, it has said prices next year
would be
flat. Prices are fla...
The Times
FRI 11 AUG 1989
House prices will not rise until 1991
House prices are unlikely to start rising again until 1991, according
to Black
Horse Relocation, which published its annual report on the housing
market
yesterday. The announcement came as the Building Societies Association
announced
that 70 per cent...
The Times
FRI 18 AUG 1989
House prices could fall for some years, consultants predict
House prices are set for a long-term fall in real terms, followed by a
slow
recovery in the 1990s, a firm of consultants concludes in its gloomy
forecast of
the housing market, published today. In addition, a report published
today by
the Building So...
The Times
TUE 22 AUG 1989
Sellers accept cut in asking prices;House prices
House sellers have accepted that they must reduce prices to find
buyers, the
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says in its latest house price
survey,
published today. Mr Peter Miller, for the institution, said the survey
showed
more stability ...
The Times
TUE 26 SEP 1989
Falls bring buyers' market to North;Housing prices
The North has now felt the ripple effect of the fall in property prices
in the
rest of England and Wales, the Royal Institution of Chartered
Surveyors' house
price survey reports today. Properties not realistically priced are
sticking,
and in the Nor...
The Times
SAT 30 SEP 1989
House prices down by 3.8%
House prices in London fell by 3.8 per cent in the last three months,
leaving
them 16 per cent lower than at the height of the property boom last
year,
according to Barnard Marcus estate agents (Our Property Correspondent
writes).
That drop was the s...
The Sunday Times
SUN 15 OCT 1989
House buyers to be scarce until prices reach bottom
'OF COURSE the price is coming down,'' snapped the estate agent trying
to sell a
basement flat off Kensington High Street in London. ``The owners are
desperate
to sell.'' But the customer, despite having seen the flat collapse from
Pounds
170,000 t...
The Sunday Times
SUN 05 NOV 1989
House prices may rise next spring
BRITAIN'S depressed housing market could pick up much sooner than
expected,
according to a forecast to be published this week. The Morgan Grenfell
bank
believes the housing market has reached a point where recovery is in
sight. It
says rising income...
The Times
TUE 07 NOV 1989
House prices
House prices continued to decline in October, the Halifax Building
Society said
yesterday . In its latest house price survey, the society said there
was a
further deceleration in the annual rate of house price inflation in
October to 7
per cent, from...
The Times
THU 09 NOV 1989
House prices `to rise'
Property prices in London, the south-east and East Anglia will recover
next year
and begin to increase by about 10 per cent a year, according to Morgan
Grenfell,
the merchant bankers, in a report on the housing market published
yesterday. The
recover...
The Times
FRI 17 NOV 1989
House prices to recover next year
House prices are expected to reach a turning point in the third quarter
of next
year after a two-year decline, Charterhouse the merchant and investment
banking
group said yesterday in its annual study of the housing market. A week
ago
another firm of... 1990 - HISTORICAL NEWS REPORTS ON HOUSE PRICES
1990
The Times
SAT 06 JAN 1990
Recovery forecast for house prices in market awash with loan funds
In the long run, we will all be dead, said the currently unfashionable
economist, John Maynard Keynes. The same finality cannot be applied to
the
housing market, a subject close to the hearts of many weary home
owners. In the
short term it has been ...
The Times
SAT 06 JAN 1990
House prices in 2% year-end fall
House prices fell by 2 per cent in the last three months of 1989, the
Nationwide
Anglia Building Society reported yesterday in its annual review of the
property
market. The quarterly fall was the biggest recorded by the society,
while the
annual incr...
The Times
SAT 20 JAN 1990
House prices in London drop by 10%
House prices in London dropped by an average 10 per cent last year,
bringing the
average price down to Pounds 86,800, the lowest since the beginning of
1988, the
London Research Centre reports in its quarterly bulletin. The largest
annual
fall was in...
The Sunday Times
SUN 18 FEB 1990
House prices may fall still further
ABBEY NATIONAL's decision to increase its mortgage rate shouldn't be a
surprise.
Given that base rates have been 15% for three months now, the surprise
in a
sensible market should have been at how long it had taken to react. The
decision
to move a f...
The Times
TUE 27 FEB 1990
Price of houses `to fall 10%'
House prices could fall another 10 per cent this year as a result of
higher
mortgage rates before they begin to recover, says the Amex Bank Review.
Prices
are still historically high in relation to earnings. However, house
prices in
different parts ...
The Times
WED 07 MAR 1990
House prices rise but trend is down
House prices rose by 0.3 per cent last month, the first increase since
last
July, the Halifax Building Society reported yesterday. But, allowing
for
seasonal factors, the price trend is still downwards. The Halifax, in a
survey,
said that prices nor...
The Times
FRI 09 MAR 1990
Switch to poll tax `may lift house prices 15%'
The switch from rates to poll tax could add 15 per cent to house prices
nationally, according to research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies
and the
London Business School. It will also change the relative prices of
houses in
different areas, resea...
The Times
WED 04 APR 1990
10% fall forecast for house prices
HOUSE prices will fall by between eight and 10 per cent this year,
according to
two surveys published yesterday. In London, however, the prospect was
more
optimistic as prices only fell by 2.6 per cent in the first quarter.
The most
depressing foreca...
The Times
WED 11 APR 1990
House prices are still falling, Halifax says
HOUSE prices are either static or still falling slightly, the Halifax
Building
Society reported yesterday. The annual rate of house price inflation,
which was
more than 34 per cent a year ago, fell to zero by the end of last
month, with
prices unchan...
The Times
SAT 21 APR 1990
Auction houses counsel caution on art prices
AFTER disappointing sales in London this month, Sotheby's said
yesterday that it
was asking sellers to be ``realistic'' in setting reserve prices for
Impressionist and modern works to be sold at auctions in New York next
month.
Both Sotheby's and Chr...
The Times
FRI 04 MAY 1990
The end of house price inflation
HOUSE price inflation has finally ended nationally, nearly two years
after the
market peaked, with the latest figures from the Halifax Building
Society
yesterday showing that the annual rate at the end of April was minus
0.2 per
cent. It is the firs...
The Times
SAT 05 MAY 1990
Bargain house prices found under the hammer
TO BUY a house at auction can now cost 20 per cent less than finding a
similar
property through an estate agent. Auctioneers are also offering loans
on the
spot. Any bargains are the result of auctioneers insisting that sellers
fix
realistically low...
The Times
WED 06 JUN 1990
Halifax predicts prices will keep falling;Houses
THE fall in house prices is accelerating nationally and is expected to
continue
for the rest of this year, Britain's biggest building society reported
yesterday. But a firm recovery is forecast for next year. The Halifax
monthly
survey showed that p...
The Times
TUE 19 JUN 1990
House prices
House prices are either static or falling in almost all of England and
Wales,
the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors reports in its price
survey to the
end of May. The report, confirming the continuing slump in the market,
says that
45 per cent...
The Times
TUE 26 JUN 1990
Allen benefits from rise in house prices;Pre-tax profits
ALLEN, the building contractor and housebuilder, increased pre-tax
profits from
Pounds 3.97 million to Pounds 4.85 million in the 12 months to April 1,
its
first full year on the USM. While housebuilders further south are
feeling the
pinch, Allen, ba...
The Times
WED 27 JUN 1990
Prestige houses that still exceed list price;Residential Property
The top end of the market has been a ray of hope for estate agents The
Ham, a
fine house near Wantage in Oxfordshire, was given a guide price of
Pounds 1.5
million when it came on to the market, through Strutt & Parker. The
house sold
earlier this m...
The Sunday Times
SUN 08 JUL 1990
House prices
HOUSE PRICES over the 12 months to the end of June suffered their
biggest fall
since records began in 1952, the Nationwide Anglia building society
reported
last week. Prices fell on average by 5.3%, which in real
(after-inflation) terms
is a drop of...
The Times
THU 12 JUL 1990
No cheer in rising house prices
There is a feeling, nothing "stronger, that the bottom of "the current
house
price "cycle may have passed in the "Southeast and be fast approach"ing
in the
rest of the country. The "beginnings and ends of cycles "come and go,
as
unobserved as "ships...
The Times
THU 12 JUL 1990
House prices recover
SIGNS of a recovery in the housing market for the first time since the
boom
ended in the summer of 1988, are charted by the Halifax Building
Society in its
latest house-price survey published yesterday. For the third
consecutive month
house-price inf...
The Times
THU 12 JUL 1990
Society says return of first-time buyers lifting house prices
THE return of first-time buyers, enticed partly by a wide variety of
mortgage
discounts and other inducements, helped house prices to rise in June,
but only
by a modest 0.3 per cent, the Halifax Building Society says in a house
price
survey published...
The Times
TUE 24 JUL 1990
Housing prices static or falling
THE housing market is taking a long time to recover despite some signs
of life,
the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors indicates in its survey
for the
quarter to the end of June. Estate agents are continuing to report
static or
falling prices a...
The Times
WED 08 AUG 1990
House prices continue to slide
House prices in the UK continued their slide in July, falling by 0.1
per cent on
the previous month, and they are now 1.7 per cent lower than a year
ago,
according to a survey by the Halifax Building Society published
yesterday. HOME
NEWS
The Times
WED 10 OCT 1990
Small rise for house prices
House prices in Britain rose slightly during September, their first
increase for
three months, confirming that the slump in the south of England has
levelled
out, according to the Halifax Building Society. Its survey, prepared
before last
week's drop...
The Sunday Times
SUN 14 OCT 1990
House prices bottom out
THE long slide in house prices could be nearing its end. The Halifax's
latest
quarterly survey of the property market shows that prices in general
rose by
0.5% in September, and the indications are of a definite bottoming-out.
Last
week's cut in the...
The Sunday Times
SUN 11 NOV 1990
Indicator of the Week;Halifax House Price Index
HOUSE PRICES remained depressed last month, even though the leading
lenders
announced mortgage-rate cuts of nearly one percentage point. Average
house
prices fell 0.8%, more than reversing a tentative rise of 0.5% shown in
the
September figures. Af...
The Sunday Times
SUN 18 NOV 1990
House prices set to take off in spring
THE worst slump in Britain's housing market for more than a decade will
end next
spring, an authoritative report will forecast this week. Prices will
rise by an
average of 20% within two years, Lower interest rates and higher wages
will
combine to s...
The Sunday Times
SUN 18 NOV 1990
City `slickers' raise house prices
INVERNESS and Aberdeen have proved the two bright spots in an otherwise
sluggish
Scottish property market. Increased North Sea oil-related activity has
meant a
steady flow of workers into the Granite City, and the desirability of
living in
Inverness-...
The Times
MON 26 NOV 1990
Increase in house prices predicted
HOUSE prices in Britain will rise by 7 per cent next year and by more
than 11
per cent in 1992, followed by slower growth in 1993, statistics from
the
merchant and investment banking group Charterhouse suggest. That is the
conclusion from forecasts t...
The Times
THU 06 DEC 1990
House price inflation up
THE annual rate of house price inflation rose in November. The 0.2 per
cent
year-on-year increase in prices was the first recorded since February
by the
Halifax Building Society. In October, prices had fallen 0.4 per cent
compared
with a year earli...
The Times
SAT 29 DEC 1990
Two-point cut in bank rate `could revive house prices'
A CUT in interest rates by 2 points in the next few months could signal
a
recovery in the housing market and an increase in house prices of 5 per
cent by
the end of 1991, the Halifax Building Society predicts today in its
annual
review of the housing... 1991 - HISTORICAL NEWS REPORTS ON HOUSE PRICES
1991
The Times
FRI 04 JAN 1991
House prices;London
House prices in London could rise by 3 per cent in the next six months,
the
estate agent Barnard Marcus predicted in its quarterly survey of
prices. HOME
NEWS
The Times
SAT 05 JAN 1991
Record fall in house prices
HOUSE prices fell by a record 10.7 per cent last year, the Nationwide
Anglia
building society reported yesterday in its end-of-year survey. The
figures
showing the biggest recorded annual fall and, for the last three months
of 1990,
the biggest quart...
The Times
THU 10 JAN 1991
House price rises suggest a recovery
HOUSE prices in London and southwest England showed a small increase
during the
last quarter of 1990, the first rise since the slump in the property
market
began in the summer of 1988, the Halifax building society said
yesterday. The
society's latest...
The Times
WED 16 JAN 1991
Agent fined over house price claim
AN ESTATE agent was fined Pounds 800 yesterday over a ``grossly
misleading''
advertisement claiming that the price of a house had been cut by Pounds
30,000.
The case is believed to be the first brought under section three of the
Consumer
Protection A...
The Times
MON 04 FEB 1991
House prices in the late 1980s are not to blame for the recession
The increase in house prices in the late 1980s was not to blame for the
present
recession, according to an article in Housing Finance, the journal of
the
Council of Mortgage Lenders. The article, by Jarlath Costello and
Adrian Coles,
also rejects the...
The Sunday Times
SUN 10 FEB 1991
House prices `may not recover this year'
TIME could be running out for any significant increase in house prices
this
year. The Abbey National, whose house-price forecast has been developed
with the
London Business School, is expected to halve its previous estimate for
growth.
The figures wi...
The Times
WED 06 MAR 1991
House price rises predicted this year
HOUSE prices remained almost static between January and February,
indicating
that the market has finally bottomed out, the Nationwide Anglia
Building Society
reported yesterday. The society's price survey found that at the end of
last
month the avera...
The Times
WED 13 MAR 1991
House prices predicted to rise 66% over five years
HOUSE prices in the UK are predicted to rise by an average of 66 per
cent over
the next five years as the housing market recovers from the slump
through
falling inflation and interest rates. The Housing Mortgage Corporation,
in its
latest house price...
The Times
SAT 30 MAR 1991
London house prices `up 0.5%'
HOUSE prices in greater London have increased in the past three months
for the
first time since September 1988, the estate agent Barnard Marcus
reports in a
survey to be published on Tuesday. The agent, which has 50 offices in
the
region, also report...
The Times
MON 08 APR 1991
House prices are not the problem
The cult of the ``property owning democracy'' seems to be following its
high-priestess into oblivion, especially since the Chancellor smashed
the Golden
Calf by abolishing higher rate tax relief on mortgages in last month's
Budget.
These days, the p...
The Sunday Times
SUN 21 APR 1991
Country houses fall 15% in price
THE biggest casualties of the property slump were country houses in the
home
counties and ``other southern regions'', according to Savills, the
estate agency
that buys and sells houses for the rich, writes Andrew Yates. In a
research
document publish...
The Times
WED 01 MAY 1991
The price is right in the housing basement
A repossessed home's worth is measured, not by estate agents' hype, but
by the
price it fetches at auction, reports Michael Horsnell The bargain
basement of
Britain's property market is in the grip of a new phenomenon as
thousands of
repossessed home...
The Times
THU 02 MAY 1991
Residents fear fall in house prices
BR's choice of the south London route for the Channel tunnel link has
stirred
strong protests from those in its path. RESIDENTS in Peckham, southeast
London
reacted angrily last night to British Rail's final decision to endorse
a
southerly route for ...
The Times
MON 20 MAY 1991
House prices `to rise by 2% at most'
SOME 80,000 repossessed homes will be on the market during 1991,
according to
the economics team of UBS Phillips & Drew, the securities group. It
says that
the properties, equivalent to a medium-sized town, will soak up demand
and, with
rising unemp...
The Times
FRI 24 MAY 1991
Bank set to act on house prices
THE Governor of the Bank of England warned the Building Societies
Association
conference in Glasgow that a resurgence of house price inflation would
be firmly
countered by the authorities. Robin Leigh-Pemberton, who said earlier
this year
he was prep...
The Times
SAT 01 JUN 1991
House price inflation
>From Mr M. R. Darke Sir, Who is kidding whom? I find Robin
Leigh-Pemberton's
reported remark (``Bank set to act on house prices'', May 24) to the
Building
Societies Association conference commenting on house price inflation
that ``with
hindsight, th...
The Times
SAT 01 JUN 1991
House price inflation
>From Mr Richard Wardrop Sir, Following Mr Leigh-Pemberton's comments on
house
price inflation, I am prompted to ask what plans he has to bring bank
employees'
mortgage rates into line with the rest of us poor (sic) mortals? He
might also
care to comm...
The Times
SAT 01 JUN 1991
Georgian furniture attracts top prices in house sale
GOOD examples of Georgian furniture prompted keen bidding when the
contents of a
cliff top house at Mevagissey, Cornwall, were sold for Pounds 224,269.
The sale
at the home of the late Ronald Strauss, a retired City financier, was
expected
by Phillip...
The Times
TUE 04 JUN 1991
2% house price rise is biggest for year
HOUSE prices increased by 2 per cent last month compared with the
previous
month, the largest monthly rise since March 1990, the Nationwide
Building
Society reported yesterday in its latest ouse price index. Nationwide
said the
increase followed the ...
The Sunday Times
SUN 30 JUN 1991
House price rises boost hopes in London, but recovery to be slow
LONDON'S housing market is emerging slowly from the slump, according to
two
reports to be published this week. The recovery is fragile and dogged
by
economic uncertainty, but prices in some areas are beginning to rise
and the
number of sales has inc...
The Times
MON 08 JUL 1991
House prices `to stay static'
HOUSE prices are forecast to remain static over the next two years
despite the
expected 1 per cent drop in mortgage rates before the end of the year.
Schroders, the merchant bank, estimates in its latest Economic
Perspective that
on top of an expecte...
The Times
THU 08 AUG 1991
Halifax building society revises its forecast on house prices
The Halifax building society yesterday revised its forecast of a 5 per
cent
increase in house prices this year. Britain's biggest building society
said it
now expected prices to rise by less than 3 per cent this year due to
the
recession and soaring...
The Times
THU 22 AUG 1991
House slump narrows North-South price gap
THE housing market slump has had a savage effect in the south of the
country
while leaving the north relatively unscathed, narrowing the gap in
prices
between the two, the Council of Mortgage Lenders reports today. Its
study of the
market shows that ...
The Sunday Times
SUN 08 SEP 1991
Weekly watch on UK house prices
THE most comprehensive weekly information service on home ownership in
the
United Kingdom starts today with the launch of The Sunday Times House
Price
Index, compiled with Morgan Grenfell, the merchant bank. The index
combines data
from the two bigge...
The Times
WED 11 SEP 1991
House prices
>From Mrs Eileen Scott Sir, You report (September 3) that council-tax
bills may
be higher than predicted because of an apparent miscalculation of
average house
prices. The environment department is quoted as saying: ``We stand by
our
figures. They t...
The Sunday Times
SUN 29 SEP 1991
House-price surge is on the way, but wait for it
PLUMMETING prices, higher earnings and mortgage rates of less than 10%
have set
the stage for a housing market revival next year, when prices are
expected to
rise by more than inflation. A report due to be published next month by
UBS
Phillips & Drew,...
The Sunday Times
SUN 29 SEP 1991
Sunday Times House Price Index;Property
THE Sunday Times House Price Index this week publishes figures from the
Halifax
building society, comparing price movements since October 1988 in the
north and
southeast of England. While the southeast has suffered falls, prices
have risen
in the nor...
The Times
THU 10 OCT 1991
Fall in house prices dashes market hopes
HOUSE prices fell by 0.8 per cent last month and by 1.1 per cent in the
quarter
to the end of September, dashing hopes that the market might show signs
of
recovery by the end of the year, according to figures from the Halifax
Building
Society yesterd...
The Sunday Times
SUN 20 OCT 1991
House prices fall by 2% despite interest rate cut
IF statistics are to be believed, the Scottish property market is still
some way
from showing signs of recovery, writes Wendy Travis. A house price
index,
compiled by GA Property Services, shows a decrease of over 2% in
Scottish house
prices between ...
The Times
TUE 05 NOV 1991
Maverick pays price for loans that were not safe as houses;Building
socie ties
As the Town & Country Building Society sees its future `with the
Woolwich',
Lindsay Cook reports on the background to the merger and assesses the
outlook
for the societies The Building Societies Commission has had to steady
the nerves
of building soc...
The Times
THU 21 NOV 1991
Falling house prices
House prices remain static in much of England and Wales and are still
falling in
parts of the South-East, according to the latest survey from the Royal
Institution of Chartered Surveyors, published today. Seven out of ten
estate
agents in the South-E...
The Times
THU 05 DEC 1991
Market weak
House prices fell by almost 1 per cent last month, confirming that the
market
remains ``very weak'', the Halifax Building Society said yesterday,
publishing
its latest figures. For the year ending in November prices declined by
2.4 per
cent and are l...
The Times
WED 18 DEC 1991
Builders hit by fear of more house price falls;Stock Market
THE growing number of house repossessions and the government's attempts
to halt
these depressed the construction industry. The prospect of house prices
continuing to fall for the foreseeable future caused the shares of the
big
contractors, already k...
The Times
THU 19 DEC 1991
Record repossessions are keeping down house prices
The property market is being held back as repossessed houses are resold
in some
areas at up to 30 per cent below their true value. Ray Clancy reports
REPOSSESSIONS are having a significant impact on the housing market,
keeping
prices low in many par...
The Times
MON 30 DEC 1991
House prices stuck `till 1993'
THE housing market should begin to recover in the spring, but house
prices are
unlikely to show real gains until 1993, the Halifax Building Society
says in its
annual review published today. The review, prepared before the
announcement of a
rescue pa... 1992 - HISTORICAL NEWS REPORTS ON HOUSE PRICES
1992
The Times
THU 06 FEB 1992
Prices of houses fall 3.6% in year
HOUSE prices fell by 1.2 per cent last month, the latest Halifax
building
society house price index shows. It comes after a fall of 1.3 per cent
in
December and means that house prices are now 3.6 per cent lower than a
year ago.
``Although there are...
The Times
TUE 03 MAR 1992
No let-up in house price fall
House prices fell again last month in spite of efforts by the
government and
lenders to breathe life into the market, according to a Nationwide
building
society survey. Figures showed prices down 1.2 per cent on the previous
month,
the third consecut...
The Sunday Times
SUN 08 MAR 1992
Budget butterflies hold off a rise in house prices
HOUSE prices are still falling, and the number of sales in January
slumped The
Sunday Times House Price Index this weekend shows that prices last
month were
4.2% lower than in the previous February, when the property market was
still
reeling from the...
The Times
WED 08 APR 1992
House prices most at risk in South-East
A FURTHER sharp drop in house prices seems likely in London and the
South-East
if Labour wins the election, but the outlook for housing in the rest of
the
country may depend less on tomorrow's poll than on the state elections
held in
Germany last Sun...
The Times
SAT 02 MAY 1992
House prices begin to rise
HOUSE prices rose by 0.7 per cent last month, making the average cost
of a home
Pounds 55,565, the Nationwide Building Society, said yesterday. The
rise comes
after four months of falling prices. The last increase, of 1 per cent,
occurred
in Novembe...
The Times
THU 07 MAY 1992
Lenders split on housing trends
HOUSE prices fell by 0.4 per cent in April, according to the latest
Halifax
house price index. The average price of a house is Pounds 60,534, 5.5
per cent
lower than it was a year ago. The Halifax's figure contrasts with a 0.7
rise in
prices recorde...
The Sunday Times
SUN 10 MAY 1992
House price fall takes shine off interest rate cut
The Sunday Times Green Shoots Index, launched last month, is an attempt
to
monitor the state of Britain's recovery. Each week we will note the
economic
news and assign it Green Shoots points, depending on its importance.
Last week's
index: +13. BLO...
The Times
TUE 02 JUN 1992
Falling house prices trap 2m borrowers
AT LEAST 278,000 first-time buyers have mortgages larger than the
current values
of their properties, according to official figures from the Council of
Mortgage
Lenders. A report to be published next week by UBS Phillips & Drew, the
securities house,...
The Times
THU 04 JUN 1992
House prices rise 0.4%
House prices rose by 0.4 per cent last month, the Halifax building
society said.
Earlier this week, the Nationwide recorded a 0.6 per cent rise. Both
lenders
have cautioned against over-optimism. The Halifax said that although
prices
showed a 0.4 ...
The Sunday Times
SUN 07 JUN 1992
The way out of the house price trap
In an open letter to the bosses of Britain's five biggest mortgage
lenders,
Diana Wright, Personal Finance Editor, invites them to adopt her plan
for
getting the housing market moving. Dear Sirs I WONDER if you read our
article
last week on the mortg...
The Sunday Times
SUN 21 JUN 1992
`Boom days gone forever' as house prices still fall
THE housing market is showing no signs of recovery and will remain
depressed for
the next five years as cautious buyers adjust to new economic
circumstances,
says an authoritative report to be published on Tuesday. It predicts a
fall this
year of 4%...
The Times
MON 29 JUN 1992
Prices fall as auction houses chase bidders
TWO years ago a painting by Van Gogh sold for Pounds 49.7 million.
Tomorrow
another work by him is being offered in London with the modest estimate
of
Pounds 600,000. Nature Morte, Branche d'Amandier is admittedly small,
at 91/2in
by 71/2in, but it...
The Times
FRI 03 JUL 1992
Half-price house sale
Seventy houses are to be sold at nearly half-price. The former RAF
homes, above,
will be priced from about Pounds 18,000 in what estate agents hope will
be a
swift sale starting in the next few weeks. The houses, on the former
RAF ca...
The Times
FRI 10 JUL 1992
House prices edge up
House prices rose 0.7 per cent last month, the Halifax building society
said.
The rise, it added, could be a sign that prices were stabilising.
``Further
recovery remains dependent on improvement in the economy and in
employment
prospects,'' a spoke...
The Sunday Times
SUN 26 JUL 1992
House prices continue to drop as Major studies rescue plans
THE cuts in interest rates have not worked; the mortgage rescue package
has
failed; and the moratorium on stamp duty has done little to help. What
can the
government try now to rescue a housing market that seems bent on
self-destruction? A report la...
The Times
TUE 28 JUL 1992
Buyers rush in for half-price houses;RAF houses in Lincolnshire
MORE than 700 buyers are competing for 70 former RAF houses in
Lincolnshire that
are on sale at about half their market price. The detached and
semi-detached
post-war houses, some with new roofs and PVC double-glazing, are being
offered
at prices ran...
The Sunday Times
SUN 09 AUG 1992
House-price market spirals downward towards crisis
FAR from showing even the first flickering signs of recovery, the
housing market
is plunging deeper into recession, with the situation, according to
some
experts, now rapidly moving towards crisis. Prices have already fallen
longer
and further in Lo...
The Times
MON 17 AUG 1992
Price mentality holds key to housing market
As this year has passed, it has become apparent that inflation is
falling, if
anything, faster than expected. But it has also become clear that the
high
inflation mentality is entrenched in far more parts of the economy than
just the
labour market. ...
The Times
SAT 05 SEP 1992
House prices down
House prices fell by 0.7 per cent in August, following a 0.4 per cent
fall in
July, according to the Halifax, the country's largest building society.
Prices
are 5.4 per cent lower than they were a year ago and the society
predicted no
upturn in the m...
The Times
FRI 18 SEP 1992
Council tax based on 1991 house prices;Politics & Government
THERE will be no wholesale revaluation of the 20 million homes in
England liable
for the new council tax, even if property prices continue to fall, John
Redwood,
the local government minister, said yesterday. Houses would be taxed on
the
basis of the...
The Times
SAT 03 OCT 1992
House prices drop 1.4% in a month
HOUSE prices fell 1.4 per cent last month when would-be homebuyers were
scared
off by sharp fluctuations in interest rates as the pound dropped out of
the
European exchange-rate mechanism. Last month's reduction was the
largest since
October 1991, wh...
The Times
FRI 09 OCT 1992
Record fall in house prices
HOUSE prices fell by at least 2.8 per cent in September, the
biggest-ever
monthly fall and equivalent to a one-third cut over a year. The precise
figure
will be issued today in the respected Halifax price index. It is
understood to
be at least double...
The Times
SAT 10 OCT 1992
House prices soared and slumped
HOUSE prices continued to rise dramatically in the South East and East
Anglia
after the Crash and more steadily in the rest of the country. In the
year to
October 1987, house price inflation was put at 14.5 per cent by the
Halifax. In
Greater Londo...
The Times
SAT 10 OCT 1992
House prices
House prices have now fallen an average 7.5 per cent over the past
year,
according to the Halifax price index issued yesterday. House prices
fell by 3.1
per cent in September, although the seasonally adjusted index figure
showed a
2.7 per cent fall....
The Times
MON 12 OCT 1992
Flat prices fall more than houses
FLATS are falling faster in value than houses in the property slump,
with the
greatest price falls shown by two-bedroom, two-bathroom flats. While
houses have
gone down by 5.6 cent over the past year, flats have fallen by 10 per
cent,
according to a ...
The Sunday Times
SUN 01 NOV 1992
Granite City house price rollercoaster takes a dip
ABERDEEN's apparent immunity to the property industry's recent maladies
may be
showing signs of wearing off. House prices in the city have fallen for
the first
time since 1988, and the number of properties for sale has increased
substantially. Based...
The Times
WED 04 NOV 1992
House prices drop 4% in two months
HOUSE prices fell 2.7 per cent during October, according to the
Nationwide, the
second largest building society. This follows the 1.4 per cent fall in
prices
reported by the society for September. The figures indicate that
prices, having
fallen by m...
The Times
WED 04 NOV 1992
House prices drop 4% in two months
HOUSE prices fell by 2.7 per cent last month, according to the
Nationwide
building society. Since the end of August they have dropped more than 4
per
cent, figures show. The average house price has fallen more than Pounds
13,000
since autumn 1989 to...
The Sunday Times
SUN 15 NOV 1992
What price a council house with a resident Maxwell?
IF THERE is a single house bound to attract buyers even in the property
slump,
it is this one. To view it you must come to a hill overlooking the
dreaming
spires of Oxford, past the lodge, round the wooded drive, through the
colonnade
and into Headi...
The Times
THU 19 NOV 1992
£750m buy-out unlikely to boost house prices
THE government's Pounds 750 million plan to buy up empty property is
unlikely to
have much impact on the housing market. Housing associations, which are
charged
by the government to spend the money, have made it clear that they are
unlikely
to buy m...
The Sunday Times
SUN 22 NOV 1992
Council tax will mean new fall in house prices
THE FALL in house prices will accelerate when the council tax replaces
the poll
tax next April, according to a study published today. Morgan Grenfell,
the
merchant bank, says the value of houses in London and the southeast
will fall by
up to 4.5% nex...
The Times
SAT 28 NOV 1992
Bank sees further year of house price pain
HOUSE prices will continue falling next year despite lower interest
rates, a new
report from Charterhouse, the merchant bank, says. But the market is
due for a
strong recovery in 1994 and will continue rising for the following
three years
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=SF&s=&f=22
Tumbleweed
"Crowley" <crowley...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
news:1132939014.8...@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
The bankers, estate agents and their various mouthpieces in the media
tell us : OK we have a massive house price bubble but there won't be a
crash because "its different this time" .
<snip huge list that _no one_ is going to read more than the first few lines
of*>
++++++++++++++++
....but Alastair, Nationwide just said they expect house prices will fall in
the first half of 2006!
--
Tumbleweed
*OK, no one normal
email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com
biggirlsblouse
"Tumbleweed" <thisaccoun...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:3up01qF...@individual.net...
>checked)
Tumbleweed I thought u were trying to convince me of the opposite recently??
Stephen Glynn
> The bankers, estate agents and their various mouthpieces in the media
> tell us : OK we have a massive house price bubble but there won't be a
> crash because "its different this time" .
>
> Funny how they were often saying the same thing during the last crash
> when prices fell between 20 and 40% and more in some areas between 1989
> and 1995.
>
> See a familiar pattern ?........
>
>
> http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=SF&s=&f=22
>
During this period, of course, interest rates rose pretty rapidly from
(Bank of England MLR) 8.38% to 14.88% in October '89, before falling
back to 6.66% in November 1992.
http://213.225.136.206/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp?Travel=NIxIRx
Isn't that a rather significant difference between then and now?
Steve
Tumbleweed
"biggirlsblouse" <big....@tesco.com> wrote in message
news:mjIhf.3656$y36....@newsfe1-win.ntli.net...
I rest my case ....
> Tumbleweed I thought u were trying to convince me of the opposite
> recently??
saying there isnt a house price crash at the moment, is *not* the same as
saying that there wont be one at some future point, or that prices will zoom
up, its just doing what it says on the tin.
And similarily, trying to divine what is meant by "house price crash",
doesnt mean arguing there wont be one.
Its interesting that crowley didnt mention the Nationwide report there will
be a fall, normally he pounces on every such prouncement like a starving cat
on a mouse. But I suppose it didnt fit his 'conspiracy' agenda of all those
with vested interests denying there will be a fall.
--
Tumbleweed
Richard Faulkner
Crowley <crowley...@yahoo.co.uk> writes
>The Times
>SAT 28 NOV 1992
>Bank sees further year of house price pain
>HOUSE prices will continue falling next year despite lower interest
>rates, a new report from Charterhouse, the merchant bank, says. But the
>market is due for a strong recovery in 1994 and will continue rising
>for the following three years
In my little bit just south of manchester city centre, prices didnt peak
until 1993, bottomed around 1997, and started to rise gradually around
late 1998, (approximately).
FWIW The bottom was around 75% of the peak, and they had exceeded the
1993 peak by 1999, and are now around 3 to 4 times the peak of 1993.
The main reason for the crash was the interest rate rising to something
like 15% for a while, which was something to do with our failed attempts
to be part of the European Monetary System, (or whatever it was called).
If mortgage interest rates increase from around 5% to say, 6.5% to 7%,
or so, it will have a significant effect on the market. There is no real
sign of this happening, so i think the market can be said to be
stabilising, rather than falling.
--
Richard Faulkner
SG
> The bankers, estate agents and their various mouthpieces in the media
> tell us : OK we have a massive house price bubble but there won't be a
> crash because "its different this time".
>
> Funny how they were often saying the same thing during the last crash
> when prices fell between 20 and 40% and more in some areas between
> 1989 and 1995.
>
> See a familiar pattern ?........
[...]
> http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=SF&s=&f=22
2010 is predicted: http://littleurl.com/?03p2
Recommended site: http://www.landvaluetax.org/
...and don't neglect 'Practical Politics' at:
http://www.landvaluetax.org/archivpp.htm
Crowley
Yes and there's a rather significant difference between the level of
debt then and now.
Crowley
Tumbleweed wrote:
> "biggirlsblouse" <big....@tesco.com> wrote in message
> news:mjIhf.3656$y36....@newsfe1-win.ntli.net...
> >
> > "Tumbleweed" <thisaccoun...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> > news:3up01qF...@individual.net...
> >>
> >> "Crowley" <crowley...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
> >> news:1132939014.8...@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> >> The bankers, estate agents and their various mouthpieces in the media
> >> tell us : OK we have a massive house price bubble but there won't be a
> >> crash because "its different this time" .
> >>
> >> <snip huge list that _no one_ is going to read more than the first few
> >> lines of*>
> >>
> >> ++++++++++++++++
> >>
> >> ....but Alastair, Nationwide just said they expect house prices will fall
> >> in the first half of 2006!
> doesnt mean arguing there wont be one.
>
> Its interesting that crowley didnt mention the Nationwide report there will
> be a fall, normally he pounces on every such prouncement like a starving cat
> on a mouse. But I suppose it didnt fit his 'conspiracy' agenda of all those
> with vested interests denying there will be a fall.
You're quite right the Nationwide say prices will fall back early next
year. They also say they expect them strengthen later next year. They
don't mention any crash though so it still falls within my 'conspiracy
agenda' as you call it.
Nationwide are currently trying to convince the City that they have
significantly reduced their exposure to potential bad debts (ie
mortgage defaulters) combine this with their pronouncement of price
falls next year and you could be forgiven for thinking they were trying
to tell us something ;-)
Tumbleweed
>
> You're quite right the Nationwide say prices will fall back early next
> year. They also say they expect them strengthen later next year. They
> don't mention any crash though so it still falls within my 'conspiracy
> agenda' as you call it.
>
> Nationwide are currently trying to convince the City that they have
> significantly reduced their exposure to potential bad debts (ie
> mortgage defaulters) combine this with their pronouncement of price
> falls next year and you could be forgiven for thinking they were trying
> to tell us something ;-)
>
I get it, if 'they' say there will be a fall, its because 'they' dont really
mean it, if 'they' say there will be a rise its because 'they' beleive there
will be a crash and are trying to talk it away,and if 'they' dont mention
prices at all, its because 'they' are frightened there will be a crash.
hence the fact that 'they' talk about rises, falls or the status quo, proves
there will be a crash :-)
Crowley
Tumbleweed wrote:
> I get it, if 'they' say there will be a fall, its because 'they' dont really
> mean it, if 'they' say there will be a rise its because 'they' beleive there
> will be a crash and are trying to talk it away,and if 'they' dont mention
> prices at all, its because 'they' are frightened there will be a crash.
>
> hence the fact that 'they' talk about rises, falls or the status quo, proves
> there will be a crash :-)
The housing market cycle has turned and prices will fall for 5 years
or more before beginning a recovery.
Everything else is just spin :-)
Tim
> > During this period, of course, interest rates rose pretty rapidly
> > from (Bank of England MLR) 8.38% to 14.88% in October
> > '89, before falling back to 6.66% in November 1992.
> >
> > http://213.225.136.206/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp?Travel=NIxIRx
> >
> > Isn't that a rather significant difference between then and now?
>
> Yes and there's a rather significant difference
> between the level of debt then and now.
What would be the problem with (say) GBP 100 trillion debt, if interest
rates were 0.00% ?!
Crowley
Tim wrote:
> What would be the problem with (say) GBP 100 trillion debt, if interest
> rates were 0.00% ?!
If our interest rates were 0.00% it would signify that the economy was
f>cked regardless of levels of debt (look at Japan over the past 15
years)
Even with rates now at the historically low level of 4.5% strains are
evident in the economy (look at the retail sector) If rates went up to
a historical running average of around 6% imagine the effect that would
have.
Tim
> > > Yes and there's a rather significant difference
> > > between the level of debt then and now.
> >
> > What would be the problem with (say) GBP
> > 100 trillion debt, if interest rates were 0.00% ?!
>
> If our interest rates were 0.00% it
> would signify that the economy was
Specifically, in what way?
What exactly would be the problems of high debt, if there were no cost to
service it (0% rates)?
"Crowley" wrote
> If rates went up to a historical running average
> of around 6% imagine the effect that would have.
If they *did*, then perhaps there might be some house price falls at that
time. But *before* that happens, why (do you think) house prices would
fall?
Doug Ramage
"Tim" <m...@home.uk> wrote in message
news:dmc0dg$44e$1...@nwrdmz02.dmz.ncs.ea.ibs-infra.bt.com...
worth £500k, and that property ownership is not automatically a Good Thing?
--
Doug Ramage
[Watch Spam Trap]
Tumbleweed
"Doug Ramage" <ram...@XXukaccountant.net> wrote in message
news:1ZqdnULFJKU...@brightview.co.uk...
> Thing?
There isnt neccessarily a correlation between the two. If their hutch is
only worth 400k, but they bought it for 200k, they wont be 'realising that'
will they? And if its worth only 100k, they are unlikely to sell unless
forced to (the mere fact their house fell in price wouldnt do that), so
moving into rented wouldnt be a smart move (and who would be BTLing anyway
for them to rent from if prices were falling?)
Most people are where they are, and will have to put up wth it come what
may. Few have been brave enough to sell and move into rented (*very* few),
and those few are ironically the people who would advise landlords against
renting and instead tell him to sell :-)
Andy Pandy
"Stephen Glynn" <stephe...@ntlworld.com> wrote in message
news:ziIhf.4020$GC1...@newsfe6-gui.ntli.net...
> > Funny how they were often saying the same thing during the last crash
> > when prices fell between 20 and 40% and more in some areas between 1989
> > and 1995.
> >
> > See a familiar pattern ?........
> >
> <snip headlines from Jan 1988 -- November 1992>
> >
> > http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=SF&s=&f=22
> >
>
> During this period, of course, interest rates rose pretty rapidly from
> (Bank of England MLR) 8.38% to 14.88% in October '89, before falling
> back to 6.66% in November 1992.
>
> http://213.225.136.206/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp?Travel=NIxIRx
>
> Isn't that a rather significant difference between then and now?
But prices carried on falling for another 3 years after Nov 1992.
--
Andy
Andy Pandy
> > Yes and there's a rather significant difference
> > between the level of debt then and now.
>
> What would be the problem with (say) GBP 100 trillion debt, if interest
> rates were 0.00% ?!
None if lenders never ever demanded capital repayments. Unfortunately most do.
--
Andy
Andy Pandy
> > As more and more people realise that their executive rabbit hutch is not
> > worth Ł500k, and that property ownership is not automatically a Good
> > Thing?
>
> There isnt neccessarily a correlation between the two. If their hutch is
> only worth 400k, but they bought it for 200k, they wont be 'realising that'
> will they?
If they bought it with the intention of making money, and if they kept an eye on
prices, then they probably would realise that property ownership - for a
particular period - was not a good thing financially.
> And if its worth only 100k, they are unlikely to sell unless
> forced to (the mere fact their house fell in price wouldnt do that),
Why? If prices are falling and they reckon they'll fall further, why would they
be less likely to sell than in "normal" conditions? Of course they may be
*prevented* from selling by their lender if in negative equity...
> so
> moving into rented wouldnt be a smart move (and who would be BTLing anyway
> for them to rent from if prices were falling?)
Those who thought the market had hit the bottom and that they were picking up a
bargain? In fact those who get this right will likely become much richer than
those who BTL in normal circumstances.
> Most people are where they are, and will have to put up wth it come what
> may. Few have been brave enough to sell and move into rented (*very* few),
> and those few are ironically the people who would advise landlords against
> renting and instead tell him to sell :-)
Well of course. If you think selling an asset is a good move financially, then
generally buying it will be a bad move. But you have to find some mug to buy it
if you want to sell it!
Of course for most people it's not a purely financial decision. Owning a house
has non financial advantages.
--
Andy
Tumbleweed
"Andy Pandy" <spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid> wrote in message
news:3utl49F...@individual.net...
>
> "Tumbleweed" <thisaccoun...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:3utim4F...@individual.net...
>> > As more and more people realise that their executive rabbit hutch is
>> > not
>> > Thing?
>>
>> There isnt neccessarily a correlation between the two. If their hutch is
>> only worth 400k, but they bought it for 200k, they wont be 'realising
>> that'
>> will they?
>
> If they bought it with the intention of making money, and if they kept an
> eye on
> prices, then they probably would realise that property ownership - for a
> particular period - was not a good thing financially.
translation 'someone who bought a house to make money but instead lost money
on it, will realise they lost money on it'
>> And if its worth only 100k, they are unlikely to sell unless
>> forced to (the mere fact their house fell in price wouldnt do that),
>
> Why? If prices are falling and they reckon they'll fall further, why would
> they
> be less likely to sell than in "normal" conditions? Of course they may be
> *prevented* from selling by their lender if in negative equity...
Doh! Thats why they'd be less likely to sell, because they cant!
>> so
>> moving into rented wouldnt be a smart move (and who would be BTLing
>> anyway
>> for them to rent from if prices were falling?)
>
> Those who thought the market had hit the bottom and that they were picking
> up a
> bargain? In fact those who get this right will likely become much richer
> than
> those who BTL in normal circumstances.
Another "statement of the bleedin obvious", eg buying at the bottom is
better than buying at the top.
Someone once said 'foretelling is easy, except for the future' or something
like that. Your mythical market bottom buyer may be catching a falling knife
(as per the Chicken Littles)
Tw
Tim
> > > between the level of debt then and now.
> >
> > What would be the problem with (say) GBP
> > 100 trillion debt, if interest rates were 0.00% ?!
>
> None if lenders never ever demanded
> capital repayments. Unfortunately most do.
Never heard of an "interest-only mortgage"? ;-)
Andy Pandy
> > "Tim" wrote
> > > What would be the problem with (say) GBP
> > > 100 trillion debt, if interest rates were 0.00% ?!
> >
> "Andy Pandy" wrote
> > None if lenders never ever demanded
> > capital repayments. Unfortunately most do.
>
> Never heard of an "interest-only mortgage"? ;-)
Not one where the lender never requires the capital to be repaid.
--
Andy
abelard
<thisaccoun...@yahoo.com>
typed:
:-)
he probably can't afford a tent and is trying to talk the
prices down....
regards...
--
web site at www.abelard.org - news and comment service, logic,
energy, education, politics, etc 1,552,207 document calls in year past
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
all that is necessary for [] walk quietly and carry
the triumph of evil is that [] a big stick.
good people do nothing [] trust actions not words
only when it's funny -- roger rabbit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
abelard
typed:
>
>Tim wrote:
>> What would be the problem with (say) GBP 100 trillion debt, if interest
>> rates were 0.00% ?!
>
>If our interest rates were 0.00% it would signify that the economy was
>f>cked regardless of levels of debt (look at Japan over the past 15
>years)
ah yes, still one of the wealthiest economies on earth...
>Even with rates now at the historically low level of 4.5% strains are
>evident in the economy (look at the retail sector) If rates went up to
>a historical running average of around 6% imagine the effect that would
>have.
you don't know what the hell you are on about....
why don't you tell 'us' the 'effects' instead of hoping others
will 'imagine' it for you....?
what exactly are these 'strains' that are 'evident in the economy'?
no use copying your 'answers' from the scribblers of the fossil
press...most of them don't have any more of a clue than yourself.
Andy Pandy
> >> > As more and more people realise that their executive rabbit hutch is
> >> > not
> >> > worth £500k, and that property ownership is not automatically a Good
> >> > Thing?
> >>
> >> There isnt neccessarily a correlation between the two. If their hutch is
> >> only worth 400k, but they bought it for 200k, they wont be 'realising
> >> that'
> >> will they?
> >
> > If they bought it with the intention of making money, and if they kept an
> > eye on
> > prices, then they probably would realise that property ownership - for a
> > particular period - was not a good thing financially.
>
> translation 'someone who bought a house to make money but instead lost money
> on it, will realise they lost money on it'
No, the point was if they bought it for 200k, it went up to 500k last year, then
down to 400k, then they might realise that owning for the last year was not a
good idea.
> >> And if its worth only 100k, they are unlikely to sell unless
> >> forced to (the mere fact their house fell in price wouldnt do that),
> >
> > Why? If prices are falling and they reckon they'll fall further, why would
> > they
> > be less likely to sell than in "normal" conditions? Of course they may be
> > *prevented* from selling by their lender if in negative equity...
>
> Doh! Thats why they'd be less likely to sell, because they cant!
Doh! Not everyone whose house price falls ends up in negative equity. Prices
could fall by 50% now and I'd wager that the majority of people wouldn't be in
negative equity (because they bought several years ago, or put down a big
deposit).
> >> so
> >> moving into rented wouldnt be a smart move (and who would be BTLing
> >> anyway
> >> for them to rent from if prices were falling?)
> >
> > Those who thought the market had hit the bottom and that they were picking
> > up a
> > bargain? In fact those who get this right will likely become much richer
> > than
> > those who BTL in normal circumstances.
>
> Another "statement of the bleedin obvious", eg buying at the bottom is
> better than buying at the top.
> Someone once said 'foretelling is easy, except for the future' or something
> like that. Your mythical market bottom buyer may be catching a falling knife
> (as per the Chicken Littles)
So what? You asked who'd be BTL'ing in a falling market. If the answer was so
bleeding obvious then why ask?
--
Andy
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>Of course for most people it's not a purely financial decision. Owning a house
>has non financial advantages.
ie, it has two potential 'paybacks'....
take that though further....
to an extent one perceived advantage hedges against
a potential loss (but possible gain) in the other....
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>
no use lenders 'demanding' repayments if the borrower
cannot (or will not) pay.
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>"Tim" <m...@home.uk> wrote in message
why would a lender want repayment if the borrower was reliable
and providing a satisfactory income stream?
Tim
> > > > What would be the problem with (say) GBP
> > > > 100 trillion debt, if interest rates were 0.00% ?!
> > >
> > "Andy Pandy" wrote
> > > None if lenders never ever demanded
> > > capital repayments. Unfortunately most do.
> >
> > Never heard of an "interest-only mortgage"? ;-)
>
> Not one where the lender never requires the capital to be repaid.
That's not a problem. Repay when you sell.
[With interest rates staying down at 0%, there's not much reason for prices
to have dropped!]
Ronald Raygun
> On Sun, 27 Nov 2005 12:45:21 -0000, "Andy Pandy"
> <spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
>
> typed:
>
>>"Tim" <m...@home.uk> wrote in message
>>news:dmc8lu$fbo$1...@nwrdmz03.dmz.ncs.ea.ibs-infra.bt.com...
>>> > "Tim" wrote
>>> > > What would be the problem with (say) GBP
>>> > > 100 trillion debt, if interest rates were 0.00% ?!
>>> >
>>> "Andy Pandy" wrote
>>> > None if lenders never ever demanded
>>> > capital repayments. Unfortunately most do.
>>>
>>> Never heard of an "interest-only mortgage"? ;-)
>>
>>Not one where the lender never requires the capital to be repaid.
>
> why would a lender want repayment if the borrower was reliable
> and providing a satisfactory income stream?
Just how satisfactory is the income stream from a loan charged
at 0.00% interest?
Tumbleweed
"Andy Pandy" <spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid> wrote in message
>
> No, the point was if they bought it for 200k, it went up to 500k last
> year, then
> down to 400k, then they might realise that owning for the last year was
> not a
> good idea.
And they'd aso likely realise that not being psychic and knowing what house
prices would do in the future, that would be a 'so what'.
[real story]I bought some shares at $25, they went to $65, fell to $58 where
I sold them. Obviously, for the time between $65 and $58 'owning them wasnt
a good idea', but so what, no one knew what the peak will be, maybe they
would have gone to $100 or $500 (I wish). FWIW they bottomed at $48 and are
now on their way back up again. I should *obviously* have bought back in at
$48, in fact *not* owning them from $48 onwards was "a bad idea".
Operating on hindsight isnt much use, which is what your post appears to
boil down to.
>
>> >> And if its worth only 100k, they are unlikely to sell unless
>> >> forced to (the mere fact their house fell in price wouldnt do that),
>> >
>> > Why? If prices are falling and they reckon they'll fall further, why
>> > would
>> > they
>> > be less likely to sell than in "normal" conditions? Of course they may
>> > be
>> > *prevented* from selling by their lender if in negative equity...
>>
>> Doh! Thats why they'd be less likely to sell, because they cant!
>
> Doh! Not everyone whose house price falls ends up in negative equity.
> Prices
> could fall by 50% now and I'd wager that the majority of people wouldn't
> be in
> negative equity (because they bought several years ago, or put down a big
> deposit).
Doh! Thats why I gave a precise figure of price bought & price now. I agree
with your guesstimate, but what does it mean? So what? What should our
mythical housebuyer do *now* ??? Should they sell, buy, rent, or just share
a tent with Crowley?
>
>> >> so
>> >> moving into rented wouldnt be a smart move (and who would be BTLing
>> >> anyway
>> >> for them to rent from if prices were falling?)
>> >
>> > Those who thought the market had hit the bottom and that they were
>> > picking
>> > up a
>> > bargain? In fact those who get this right will likely become much
>> > richer
>> > than
>> > those who BTL in normal circumstances.
>>
>> Another "statement of the bleedin obvious", eg buying at the bottom is
>> better than buying at the top.
>> Someone once said 'foretelling is easy, except for the future' or
>> something
>> like that. Your mythical market bottom buyer may be catching a falling
>> knife
>> (as per the Chicken Littles)
>
> So what? You asked who'd be BTL'ing in a falling market. If the answer was
> so
> bleeding obvious then why ask?
>
Because it doesnt appear clear to me at least, what you are proposing. Do
you want people to sell the instant the market value of their house dips? Or
when it hits a pre-arranged point? and when should they buy back in? Do you
have a neat formula? Does it involve a time machine and hindsight?
Richard Faulkner
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid> writes
With most interest only loans, if there came a time for it to be repaid,
you can reborrow with another interest only loan.
--
Richard Faulkner
john boyle
<m...@home.uk> writes
>"Crowley" wrote
>> Yes and there's a rather significant difference
>> between the level of debt then and now.
>
>What would be the problem with (say) GBP 100 trillion debt, if interest
>rates were 0.00% ?!
If by 'Interest rates' you mean the interest actually paid by personal
borrowers then if that rate is NIL then base rates would be negative and
savings would suffer a negative rate of interest, as happened in
Switzerland some time ago. This would completely disincentivise savers
and that would mean lenders wouldn't have enough dosh to lend and
therefore the amount lent would decrease. Demand for borrowing would
exceed supply and then lending interest rates would increase.
If interest rates were in this situation then we are likely to be in a
negative inflation scenario, so that would mean that asset values
(including house prices) were decreasing as would be the money supply.
Therefore, fixed levels of debt would become larger, in real terms, when
measured against the net worth of the underlying assets.
Therefore, I think the country would be in very deep poo poo indeed if
there was such a level of non reducing debt as you describe paying 0%
interest.
--
John Boyle
Crowley
abelard wrote:
> he probably can't afford a tent and is trying to talk the
> prices down....
If thats the best you can manage then why bother you dribbling old
fraud ?
Chris X
;) LOL !
Crowley
abelard wrote:
> you don't know what the hell you are on about....
> why don't you tell 'us' the 'effects' instead of hoping others
> will 'imagine' it for you....?
> what exactly are these 'strains' that are 'evident in the economy'?
If you don't know what 'strains' are evident in the UK economy then
perhaps you should try taking your fat head out of your skanky arse you
senile old windbag.
And if you lack the ability to 'imagine' the effects of 6% interest
rates in the UK then perhaps you should try reading "Economics for
dummies" dummy.
abelard
<no....@localhost.localdomain>
typed:
just fine in a deflationary context.
abelard
typed:
>
>abelard wrote:
>> you don't know what the hell you are on about....
>> why don't you tell 'us' the 'effects' instead of hoping others
>> will 'imagine' it for you....?
>> what exactly are these 'strains' that are 'evident in the economy'?
>
>If you don't know what 'strains' are evident in the UK economy then
>perhaps you should try taking your fat head out of your skanky arse you
>senile old windbag.
ie, no response...
>And if you lack the ability to 'imagine' the effects of 6% interest
>rates in the UK then perhaps you should try reading "Economics for
>dummies" dummy.
ie, no response...
you really won't get a pass on empty bluff you know...
well..you should know
Crowley
abelard wrote:
> On 27 Nov 2005 06:56:04 -0800, "Crowley" <crowley...@yahoo.co.uk>
>
> typed:
>
> >
> >abelard wrote:
> >> you don't know what the hell you are on about....
> >> why don't you tell 'us' the 'effects' instead of hoping others
> >> will 'imagine' it for you....?
> >> what exactly are these 'strains' that are 'evident in the economy'?
> >
> >If you don't know what 'strains' are evident in the UK economy then
> >perhaps you should try taking your fat head out of your skanky arse you
> >senile old windbag.
>
> ie, no response...
>
> >And if you lack the ability to 'imagine' the effects of 6% interest
> >rates in the UK then perhaps you should try reading "Economics for
> >dummies" dummy.
>
> ie, no response...
>
> you really won't get a pass on empty bluff you know...
> well..you should know
Says mad sad Abelard whose days are filled with endless postings
containing nowt but 'empty bluff' boring the arse off anyone who makes
the mistake of reading his vacuous posturing drivel.
It seems that everyone sees you for the fraudulent old windbag you are
save yourself you dribbling old fool. Don't you have any self-insight
whatsoever ?
abelard
typed:
ie....still no response....
>> you really won't get a pass on empty bluff you know...
>> well..you should know
--
Crowley
More attention seeking drivel from the dribbling one.
Chris X
<Wibble !> Pleeze buoy sum of me dockumints, mistah !
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WARNING: i kollect privit data from all users who access my webshite
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George Bush is my ikon & heero, he's a grate leeder
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------------------------------------------------------------------
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the triumph of evil is that [] a big yak poop.
the neo-cons stay in power [] trust nobody especially me.
only when it's bummy -- woger 'lardy' wabbit
------------------------------------------------------------------
abelard
typed:
ie...still no response creepy.....
>> >> you really won't get a pass on empty bluff you know...
>> >> well..you should know
someone might notice if you keep raving....
Crowley
abelard wrote:
> ie...still no response creepy.....
> >> >> you really won't get a pass on empty bluff you know...
> >> >> well..you should know
>
> someone might notice if you keep raving....
I've just been keeping you company Abelard because I feel sorry for you
particularly as noone else on here is paying you any attention as
usual.
However, even someone as tolerant and patient as I am has limits when
dealing with psycho-geriatrics like you and now that you've become
abusive I'm going to leave you to dribble alone.
Its your own fault you know. You should take the tablets nurse gives
you.
Stephen Glynn
> Stephen Glynn wrote:
>
>>Crowley wrote:
>>
>>>The bankers, estate agents and their various mouthpieces in the media
>>>tell us : OK we have a massive house price bubble but there won't be a
>>>crash because "its different this time" .
>>>
>>>Funny how they were often saying the same thing during the last crash
>>>when prices fell between 20 and 40% and more in some areas between 1989
>>>and 1995.
>>>
>>>See a familiar pattern ?........
>>>
>>
>><snip headlines from Jan 1988 -- November 1992>
>>
>>>http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?act=SF&s=&f=22
>>>
>>
>>During this period, of course, interest rates rose pretty rapidly from
>>(Bank of England MLR) 8.38% to 14.88% in October '89, before falling
>>back to 6.66% in November 1992.
>>
>>http://213.225.136.206/mfsd/iadb/Repo.asp?Travel=NIxIRx
>>
>>Isn't that a rather significant difference between then and now?
>
>
> Yes and there's a rather significant difference between the level of
> debt then and now.
>
Quite possibly. I was just questioning your apparent assumption that
the fact newspaper reports were making the same predictions they were in
previous years, it's at all same to assume similar things will follow
*unless* you also take into account other factors that are clearly
important, such as people's fears (or lack of them) that the cost of
servicing a mortgage they take out today will rise sharply over the next
few years. Other factors I'd think you should bear in mind include how
confident people feel about their jobs and about employment prospects in
general.
Just reproducing the newspapers' predictions about house prices proves
nothing particular one way or the other about anything other than the
accuracy of the predictions.
Steve
Andy Pandy
> > No, the point was if they bought it for 200k, it went up to 500k last
> > year, then
> > down to 400k, then they might realise that owning for the last year was
> > not a
> > good idea.
>
> And they'd aso likely realise that not being psychic and knowing what house
> prices would do in the future, that would be a 'so what'.
>
> [real story]I bought some shares at $25, they went to $65, fell to $58 where
> I sold them. Obviously, for the time between $65 and $58 'owning them wasnt
> a good idea', but so what, no one knew what the peak will be, maybe they
> would have gone to $100 or $500 (I wish). FWIW they bottomed at $48 and are
> now on their way back up again. I should *obviously* have bought back in at
> $48, in fact *not* owning them from $48 onwards was "a bad idea".
>
> Operating on hindsight isnt much use, which is what your post appears to
> boil down to.
Eh? The point was that even if you sell at a profit, that doesn't mean property
ownership *at this point in time* is necessarily a Good Thing. I think that was
Doug's point which you originally replied to. Bleeding obvious, maybe, but you
seem to take issue with it.
> >> >> And if its worth only 100k, they are unlikely to sell unless
> >> >> forced to (the mere fact their house fell in price wouldnt do that),
> >> >
> >> > Why? If prices are falling and they reckon they'll fall further, why
> >> > would
> >> > they
> >> > be less likely to sell than in "normal" conditions? Of course they may
> >> > be
> >> > *prevented* from selling by their lender if in negative equity...
> >>
> >> Doh! Thats why they'd be less likely to sell, because they cant!
> >
> > Doh! Not everyone whose house price falls ends up in negative equity.
> > Prices
> > could fall by 50% now and I'd wager that the majority of people wouldn't
> > be in
> > negative equity (because they bought several years ago, or put down a big
> > deposit).
>
> Doh! Thats why I gave a precise figure of price bought & price now. I agree
> with your guesstimate, but what does it mean? So what? What should our
> mythical housebuyer do *now* ??? Should they sell, buy, rent, or just share
> a tent with Crowley?
Doh! My crystal ball has run out of batteries. I'm not making any predictions
about the future and haven't done so in this thread.
The point was that falling prices wouldn't necessarily make people "unlikely to
sell unless forced to", as you claimed.
I'm not proposing anyone takes any particular action. What makes you think I
am??
You asked "and who would be BTLing anyway for them to rent from if prices were
falling?"
I answered that question.
--
Andy
Andy Pandy
"abelard" <abel...@abelard.org> wrote in message
news:rgijo1tm8dtg28j8i...@4ax.com...
> >>>Not one where the lender never requires the capital to be repaid.
> >>
> >> why would a lender want repayment if the borrower was reliable
> >> and providing a satisfactory income stream?
> >
> >Just how satisfactory is the income stream from a loan charged
> >at 0.00% interest?
>
> just fine in a deflationary context.
Really? Given that a deflationary context would likely mean the asset on which
the loan is secured is deflating, negative equity would be increasing year on
year and so the security the lender has for the loan would be decreasing year on
year. Doesn't sound like a good deal from the lender's POV.
--
Andy
Andy Pandy
> > Not one where the lender never requires the capital to be repaid.
>
> That's not a problem. Repay when you sell.
And live in a cardboard box?
> [With interest rates staying down at 0%, there's not much reason for prices
> to have dropped!]
The economic reality is that if interest rates were 0%, inflation would have to
be very low or negative (like in Japan).
--
Andy
Andy Pandy
"Richard Faulkner" <ric...@estate.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:BDXe+gDM...@estate-1.demon.co.uk...
> > >> > None if lenders never ever demanded
> >> > capital repayments. Unfortunately most do.
> >>
> >> Never heard of an "interest-only mortgage"? ;-)
> >
> >Not one where the lender never requires the capital to be repaid.
> >
>
> With most interest only loans, if there came a time for it to be repaid,
> you can reborrow with another interest only loan.
Not if you were in negative equity, or you didn't fulfil the requirements you
did 25 years ago (eg if you've retired).
--
Andy
Andy Pandy
> >> > Yes and there's a rather significant difference
> >> > between the level of debt then and now.
> >>
> >> What would be the problem with (say) GBP 100 trillion debt, if interest
> >> rates were 0.00% ?!
> >
> >None if lenders never ever demanded capital repayments. Unfortunately most
do.
>
> no use lenders 'demanding' repayments if the borrower
> cannot (or will not) pay.
Of course there is. What do you think a mortgage is "secured" on?
--
Andy
abelard
typed:
still no response creepy....even hakky is trying to rescue you now!
the ultimate in shame...
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>
>"abelard" <abel...@abelard.org> wrote in message
>news:rgijo1tm8dtg28j8i...@4ax.com...
>> >>>Not one where the lender never requires the capital to be repaid.
>> >>
>> >> why would a lender want repayment if the borrower was reliable
>> >> and providing a satisfactory income stream?
>> >
>> >Just how satisfactory is the income stream from a loan charged
>> >at 0.00% interest?
>>
>> just fine in a deflationary context.
>
>Really? Given that a deflationary context would likely mean the asset on which
>the loan is secured
a different issue....
depends eg on the proportion of the original loan to the then
assessed market price....
also depends on whether the borrower is capable of, or willing to,
offer more security...
> is deflating, negative equity would be increasing year on
>year and so the security the lender has for the loan would be decreasing year on
>year. Doesn't sound like a good deal from the lender's POV.
--
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>
a form of equity is reputation.
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>
loans are secured against various 'equity'.....
you're not understanding some very basic market issues....
if you buy a tv on a loan (hp) it's resale value rapidly falls...
same with a new car...you can still get loans if your
reputation ('credit rating') is ok....
large numbers of people kept paying mortgages on loans
greater than the (then) present value (price) of housing....
for the lender there was/is very little 'security' in your mistaken
understanding of that term....
sane lenders make risk assessments....
part of interest is in payment for risks...
that is why idiots have to pay 10 or 20% to
credit cards....
the issuers allow for a %age of bad debts...
issuing sufficient numbers of such debts
acts as insurance against the failures/'swindlers'/
defaulters....
Tumbleweed
"Andy Pandy" <spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid> wrote in message
>>
>> Operating on hindsight isnt much use, which is what your post appears to
>> boil down to.
>
> Eh? The point was that even if you sell at a profit, that doesn't mean
> property
> ownership *at this point in time* is necessarily a Good Thing. I think
> that was
> Doug's point which you originally replied to. Bleeding obvious, maybe, but
> you
> seem to take issue with it.
>
So you think it might be a good thing, or it might not? I think most here
would agree that one of those statements was true! Nicely covered.
>
> Doh! My crystal ball has run out of batteries. I'm not making any
> predictions
> about the future and haven't done so in this thread.
Thats because your predictions are about the past! "Oh look prices fell, you
really should have sold a year ago". So?
>
> The point was that falling prices wouldn't necessarily make people
> "unlikely to
> sell unless forced to", as you claimed.
I claimed that someone in negative equity was unlikely to sell.
>
> I'm not proposing anyone takes any particular action. What makes you think
> I
> am??
Because you started with a comment that it wasnt so clever to have stuck
with their investment 'when their rabbit hutch was no longer worth 500k". So
AFAICS you are criticising people for not knowing when prices would fall
(and then sell, by implication).
mogga
<ric...@estate.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>In message <1132939014.8...@g14g2000cwa.googlegroups.com>,
>Crowley <crowley...@yahoo.co.uk> writes
>>The Times
>>SAT 28 NOV 1992
>>Bank sees further year of house price pain
>>HOUSE prices will continue falling next year despite lower interest
>>rates, a new report from Charterhouse, the merchant bank, says. But the
>>market is due for a strong recovery in 1994 and will continue rising
>>for the following three years
>
>In my little bit just south of manchester city centre, prices didnt peak
>until 1993, bottomed around 1997, and started to rise gradually around
>late 1998, (approximately).
>
>FWIW The bottom was around 75% of the peak, and they had exceeded the
>1993 peak by 1999, and are now around 3 to 4 times the peak of 1993.
>
>The main reason for the crash was the interest rate rising to something
>like 15% for a while, which was something to do with our failed attempts
>to be part of the European Monetary System, (or whatever it was called).
>
>If mortgage interest rates increase from around 5% to say, 6.5% to 7%,
>or so, it will have a significant effect on the market. There is no real
>sign of this happening, so i think the market can be said to be
>stabilising, rather than falling.
Can you give some average figures for then and now?
--
Promotional codes, discounts, money off
http://www.promotionalcode.co.uk/
http://www.moneyoffvouchers.co.uk
Tim
> And if you lack the ability to 'imagine' the effects of 6% interest rates
The last time (base rates) interest rates *were* 6% in the UK, it was year
2000 (and Jan.'01).
Let's "imagine" that the effects would be the same as then -- and we'd be
heading for rampant house price inflation over the next five years ... !!
Crowley
The year 2000 was a 'different world' as I'm sure you know.
That was before the recent 3/4 year spending spree (both public and
Government) which has left the UK with 1.3 trillion pounds (and rising)
in consumer debt, 66% rise in repossessions, first-time-buyers down to
9% (from an historical average of around 40%), rising bankruptcies, a
recession in the retail sector, record trade deficit, a 10 billion
pounds hole in the public finances which will require extensive tax
rises, sterling significantly down against the dollar etc.
We've had the rampant house price inflation and the spending spree and
now its gotta be paid for.
Andy Pandy
> >> >> What would be the problem with (say) GBP 100 trillion debt, if interest
> >> >> rates were 0.00% ?!
> >> >
> >> >None if lenders never ever demanded capital repayments. Unfortunately most
> >do.
> >>
> >> no use lenders 'demanding' repayments if the borrower
> >> cannot (or will not) pay.
> >
> >Of course there is. What do you think a mortgage is "secured" on?
>
> loans are secured against various 'equity'.....
> you're not understanding some very basic market issues....
>
> if you buy a tv on a loan (hp) it's resale value rapidly falls...
> same with a new car...you can still get loans if your
> reputation ('credit rating') is ok....
> large numbers of people kept paying mortgages on loans
> greater than the (then) present value (price) of housing....
>
> for the lender there was/is very little 'security' in your mistaken
> understanding of that term....
>
> sane lenders make risk assessments....
> part of interest is in payment for risks...
> that is why idiots have to pay 10 or 20% to
> credit cards....
> the issuers allow for a %age of bad debts...
> issuing sufficient numbers of such debts
> acts as insurance against the failures/'swindlers'/
> defaulters....
What are you on about? If you take out a mortgage, and refuse to pay the
interest/loan repayments demanded by the lender, and refuse to negotiate with
them, they will take possession of the house, sell it, and chase you for the
rest of the debt if there is any.
--
Andy
Andy Pandy
> >> With most interest only loans, if there came a time for it to be repaid,
> >> you can reborrow with another interest only loan.
> >
> >Not if you were in negative equity, or you didn't fulfil the requirements you
> >did 25 years ago (eg if you've retired).
>
> a form of equity is reputation.
Which won't interest the lender if they don't think you have the ability to
service the loan.
--
Andy
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>
you are confused....
reputation is built upon the ability to serve loans and to meet other
debts.
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>
you don't know enuf english 'law'
nor do you understand the costs of chasing chavs....
Jonathan Bryce
>>Just how satisfactory is the income stream from a loan charged
>>at 0.00% interest?
>
> just fine in a deflationary context.
Put it another way.
Why would the lender want to lend you the money, rather than keep it under
his mattress?
Andy Pandy
> > I'm not proposing anyone takes any particular action. What makes you think
> > I
> > am??
>
> Because you started with a comment that it wasnt so clever to have stuck
> with their investment 'when their rabbit hutch was no longer worth 500k". So
> AFAICS you are criticising people for not knowing when prices would fall
> (and then sell, by implication).
*whoosh*
Nothing I wrote had anything to do with predictions, or criticising people for
not predicting the future.
Doug commented that people owning an expensive rabbit hutch which isn't really
worth the 500k its valued at may realise that property ownership is not
automatically a Good Thing.
You retorted that if they bought it for 200k and its now worth 400k then "they
wont be realising that".
My point was if it had been worth 500k last year, then they might be realising
that property ownership wasn't a Good Thing in the previous year.
Geddit?
--
Andy
abelard
<jona...@localhost.localdomain>
typed:
just so...
however, there are possible scenarios....
parcelling out loans to a few trusted people who prefer
to hold or use cash now....(probably safer than mattresses
for various possible reasons....)
of course because you holding money would gain say x%...
another person may be able to trade the same money and
make x+n%....and therefore be prepared to give you
n-m%...
consider eg a person wishing to trade in the 'black'(free) market
or a dangerous (perhaps 'illegal') venture...
interest/inflation/deflation (as a unit) is only part of trading
conditions...
as you will realise national banks who are in a mess are
liable to arbitrary actions...eg demonetising whet you
have under the mattress or other means of theft...
regards...
Tim
> > > And if you lack the ability to 'imagine'
> > the effects of 6% interest rates in the UK...
> >
> > The last time (base rates) interest rates *were*
> > 6% in the UK, it was year 2000 (and Jan.'01).
> >
> > Let's "imagine" that the effects would be the same as then -- and we'd
> > be heading for rampant house price inflation over the next five years
... !!
>
> The year 2000 was a 'different world' as I'm sure you know.
That's funny - you start off this thread with a subject "Its different this
time.." -- suggesting that "now" is *not* different.
Now you are saying that "now" *is* different....
Tee hee!
Crowley
Pay attention !
"The last time" refers to the last house price crash which lasted from
1989 to 1995. It was you who brought up 2000 for some reason.
Try to keep up. there's a good lad.
Tee hee !
Andy Pandy
> >What are you on about? If you take out a mortgage, and refuse to pay the
> >interest/loan repayments demanded by the lender, and refuse to negotiate with
> >them, they will take possession of the house, sell it, and chase you for the
> >rest of the debt if there is any.
>
> you don't know enuf english 'law'
> nor do you understand the costs of chasing chavs....
Are you really that clueless? Repossessions of homes by mortgage lenders this
year alone is likely to reach 10,000.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm
--
Andy
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>
so what?
your own item states
"However, repossessions are still set to be much lower than the long-term
average of 30,000, or the peak of 70,000 a year recorded during the early
1990s property market crash."
...
it also claims
"It does not automatically follow that repossession orders, as recorded by
the Department for Constitutional Affairs, result in actual repossession.
Generally, the number of court repossession orders is far higher than
actual repossessions..."
note 'far higher'
what exactly is your point...if any?
get hold of the number for the number of mortgages existing at this
time...then work out what proportion of households are involved even
with this dance...
your item suggests the present level of repos is 2/3rd of the average
rate...
it also refers to a recent bank rate cut despite the lower than ave
rate....
in these situations:-
what do you suppose the courts actually do?
what do you suppose the building societies do?
what do you suppose the recalcitrant debtors do?
there is just so much you don't understand....
do you suppose lender want to do repos?
do you imagine they like repo'd borrowers going round bad-mouthing
them...
it is just a distant threat to most people...and a hovering threat to
keep the sheep in line....
how many people (proportion) don't pay tv licences or motor
charges....and then how many are actually charged...and
then how many get a serious penalty....
what do you suppose happens to any who are repo'd?
do you suppose they end up sleeping on the park benches?
work out what the reality for the loaner and the defaulter are
in the real world....
please do some thinking or researching before posturing.
Andy Pandy
> >Are you really that clueless? Repossessions of homes by mortgage lenders this
> >year alone is likely to reach 10,000.
> >
> >http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm
>
> so what?
> your own item states
> "However, repossessions are still set to be much lower than the long-term
> average of 30,000, or the peak of 70,000 a year recorded during the early
> 1990s property market crash."
So repossessions are lower than they were, what's your point? Interest rates are
nowhere near as high as they were in the 1990's so not as many people are
getting into financial difficulties as then. It doesn't mean lenders are less
likely to repossess if the mortgage isn't paid.
> it also claims
> "It does not automatically follow that repossession orders, as recorded by
> the Department for Constitutional Affairs, result in actual repossession.
>
> Generally, the number of court repossession orders is far higher than
> actual repossessions..."
The 10,000 I quoted was the predicted figure for *actual* repossessions this
year, not repossession orders.
> note 'far higher'
Er, yes, repossession orders this year is far higher than 10,000. It was 20,000
in the last *3 months* in England and Wales.
As it states:
"Generally, the number of court repossession orders is far higher than actual
repossessions because often the borrower agrees to pay or a deal is made so the
order is not enforced. "
The repossession order is a threat to repossess. This usually persuades people
to work out a deal. If they don't the house is reposessed.
> what exactly is your point...if any?
Do you want me to repeat what I wrote earlier? OK:
If you take out a mortgage, and refuse to pay the interest/loan repayments
demanded by the lender, and refuse to negotiate with them, they will take
possession of the house, sell it, and chase you for the rest of the debt if
there is any.
My point is that your statement:
"no use lenders 'demanding' repayments if the borrower
cannot (or will not) pay."
is complete bullshit. Try telling that to the 4,640 people whose homes *were*
repossessed in the first half of this year.
--
Andy
john boyle
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid> writes
Which will be the third lowest since 1984 and as a percentage of all
mortgages outstanding is the third lowest since 1981.
--
John Boyle
abelard
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid>
typed:
>
>"abelard" <abel...@abelard.org> wrote in message
>news:6kako1lgspe3pm9fe...@4ax.com...
>> >Are you really that clueless? Repossessions of homes by mortgage lenders this
>> >year alone is likely to reach 10,000.
>> >
>> >http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4377938.stm
>>
>> so what?
>> your own item states
>> "However, repossessions are still set to be much lower than the long-term
>> average of 30,000, or the peak of 70,000 a year recorded during the early
>> 1990s property market crash."
>
>So repossessions are lower than they were, what's your point? Interest rates are
>nowhere near as high as they were in the 1990's so not as many people are
>getting into financial difficulties as then. It doesn't mean lenders are less
>likely to repossess if the mortgage isn't paid.
i am not chasing you down every rabbit hole...
your stt was as follows...
"What are you on about? If you take out a mortgage, and refuse to pay the
interest/loan repayments demanded by the lender, and refuse to negotiate
with them, they will take possession of the house, sell it, and chase you
for the rest of the debt if there is any."
your stt was highly naive....
i have given you enuf data for you to start to work out why your
comment was naive....
>Do you want me to repeat what I wrote earlier? OK:
>
>If you take out a mortgage, and refuse to pay the interest/loan repayments
>demanded by the lender, and refuse to negotiate with them, they will take
>possession of the house, sell it, and chase you for the rest of the debt if
>there is any.
that is a threat...in reality it is not what usually happens....
you cannot extract blood out of a stone....
most such supposed debts are written off....
those who don't pay up do not normally end up under hedges..
they live in other houses/accomodation....
>My point is that your statement:
>
>"no use lenders 'demanding' repayments if the borrower
> cannot (or will not) pay."
>
>is complete bullshit. Try telling that to the 4,640 people whose homes *were*
>repossessed in the first half of this year.
i note you have not made any effort to work out what a tiny proportion
of all mortgages that represents....
go peddle your victim psychology where it will be appreciated...
i do not suffer fools gladly....i do not waste time on arrogance
or on the culpably lazy-minded....
go pose elsewhere or make some effort to learn....
or you will get ignored...
Tim
> > > The year 2000 was a 'different world' as I'm sure you know.
> >
> > That's funny - you start off this thread with a subject "Its
> > different this time.." -- suggesting that "now" is *not* different.
> > Now you are saying that "now" *is* different....
>
> "The last time" refers to the last house price crash which lasted from
> 1989 to 1995. It was you who brought up 2000 for some reason.
So - you are saying that "now" (2005) is similar to "1989 to 1995" but
different from 2000?!
We start off "one way" (1989-95), change to a "different way" (2000), then
change back again (2005).
And your reasons for 2000 being different, even though earlier & later are
the same, are....?
Tim
> Doug commented that people owning an expensive rabbit
> hutch which isn't really worth the 500k its valued at may realise
> that property ownership is not automatically a Good Thing.
If they ignored the (unrealistic) £500K figure, and just considered a
*realistic* valuation, then what?
"Andy Pandy" wrote
> You retorted that if they bought it for 200k and its
> now worth 400k then "they wont be realising that".
>
> My point was if it had been worth 500k last year,
> then they might be realising that property
> ownership wasn't a Good Thing in the previous year.
That's true **only if** they bought in the previous year at £500K; but the
person being considered didn't, they paid £200K a while earlier...
Crowley
Tim wrote:
> So - you are saying that "now" (2005) is similar to "1989 to 1995" but
> different from 2000?!
> We start off "one way" (1989-95), change to a "different way" (2000), then
> change back again (2005).
>
> And your reasons for 2000 being different, even though earlier & later are
> the same, are....?
You seem to be going round in circles and becoming increasingly
fuddled.
Let me repeat an earlier post in which I tried to explain why 2000 was
'different' to 2005 :
"The year 2000 was a 'different world' (***TO 2005****) as I'm sure
you know.
That was before the recent 3/4 year spending spree (both public and
Government) which has left the UK with 1.3 trillion pounds (and rising)
in consumer debt, 66% rise in repossessions, first-time-buyers down to
9% (from an historical average of around 40%), rising bankruptcies, a
recession in the retail sector, record trade deficit, a 10 billion
pounds hole in the public finances which will require extensive tax
rises, sterling significantly down against the dollar etc. " end quote
The similiarities I am drawing are between the situation in 1989 (start
of last crash) and now in 2005 (it was you who threw 2000 into the
discussion)
Crowley
You are right. The current figure is below the historical average.
However it was also below the historical average in 1989 (the start of
the last house price crash) but over the following 3/4 years repos
rocketed to record levels.
Our current figure for repos shows an increase of 66% from last year
and this together with record levels of debt indicates that they may be
dramatically on the up again.
IMO the 'bust' has barely got started yet. Even the Governor of the
Bank of England in a recent speech said in his understated way that
"we have had 10 nice years and the next 10 are not going to be nice".
Tim
> > So - you are saying that "now" (2005) is similar
> > to "1989 to 1995" but different from 2000?!
> > We start off "one way" (1989-95), change to a
> > "different way" (2000), then change back again (2005).
> >
> > And your reasons for 2000 being different,
> > even though earlier & later are the same, are....?
>
> ...
> Let me repeat an earlier post in which I tried
> to explain why 2000 was 'different' to 2005 :
No need - please just simply explain why you think 2005 must be so close to
1989-95, even though it is so different from 2000 (which, of course, is much
more recent than 1989!).
"Crowley" wrote
> The similiarities I am drawing are between the situation
> in 1989 (start of last crash) and now in 2005 ...
I know! The fact of the matter is, that the situation in 1989 was even more
different to 2005 than 2000 was!
"Crowley" wrote
> ... (it was you who threw 2000 into the discussion)
... just to show how your argument is flawed.
16 years ago (1989) the world was a much different place to what it is now
(2005).
Tim
> > >Repossessions of homes by mortgage lenders
> > >this year alone is likely to reach 10,000.
> >
> > Which will be the third lowest since 1984 and as a percentage
> > of all mortgages outstanding is the third lowest since 1981.
>
> You are right. The current figure is below the historical average.
> However it was also below the historical average in
> 1989 (the start of the last house price crash) but over
> the following 3/4 years repos rocketed to record levels.
John's quote above suggests that it was also "below the historical average"
in 1984.
Just look what happened in the following 5 years as house prices rocketed
upwards!
You are just "cherry-picking" your historical quotes to suit your
point-of-view. Shame on you!
Crowley
Tim wrote:
> > "Tim" wrote:
> > > So - you are saying that "now" (2005) is similar
> > > to "1989 to 1995" but different from 2000?!
> > > We start off "one way" (1989-95), change to a
> > > "different way" (2000), then change back again (2005).
> > >
> > > And your reasons for 2000 being different,
> > > even though earlier & later are the same, are....?
> >
> "Crowley" wrote
> > ...
> > Let me repeat an earlier post in which I tried
> > to explain why 2000 was 'different' to 2005 :
>
> No need - please just simply explain why you think 2005 must be so close to
> 1989-95, even though it is so different from 2000 (which, of course, is much
> more recent than 1989!).
The fact that 2000 was 'more recent' is irrevelant in terms of
economic cycles. IMO with regard to the housing market 1989 and 2005
are similiar in that they were/are both top or near the top of the
house market cycle. 2000 was totally different as it was barely
half-way through the up cycle.
You do realise the cyclical nature of the economy I assume ?
> "Crowley" wrote
> > The similiarities I am drawing are between the situation
> > in 1989 (start of last crash) and now in 2005 ...
>
> I know! The fact of the matter is, that the situation in 1989 was even more
> different to 2005 than 2000 was!
Not in terms of the housing market.
> "Crowley" wrote
> > ... (it was you who threw 2000 into the discussion)
>
> ... just to show how your argument is flawed.
>
> 16 years ago (1989) the world was a much different place to what it is now
> (2005).
In many respects it was but not with regard to the stage the housing
market is now at which is what we are discussing here (aren't we ?)
Crowley
I've yet to meet anybody who doesn't indulge in a bit of
'cherry-picking' to back up their POV now and again ;-) but I'm hardly
surprised to hear repos were low in 1984 wasn't the economy starting to
boom again after a pretty severe recession particularly in
manufacturing in 81/82 ?
It all ended in tears in 89/90.
Tim
> The fact that 2000 was 'more recent' is irrevelant in terms
> of economic cycles. IMO with regard to the housing market
> 1989 and 2005 are similiar in that they were/are both top
> or near the top of the house market cycle. 2000 was totally
> different as it was barely half-way through the up cycle.
You are saying that now with hindsight.
Many people thought that 2000 was the top of the cycle, at the time.
So - this time (2005), do you have a crystal ball telling you that it *is*
the top?
Crowley
Tim wrote:
> "Crowley" wrote
> > The fact that 2000 was 'more recent' is irrevelant in terms
> > of economic cycles. IMO with regard to the housing market
> > 1989 and 2005 are similiar in that they were/are both top
> > or near the top of the house market cycle. 2000 was totally
> > different as it was barely half-way through the up cycle.
>
> You are saying that now with hindsight.
> Many people thought that 2000 was the top of the cycle, at the time.
And many people (me included ) didn't.
> So - this time (2005), do you have a crystal ball telling you that it *is*
> the top?
Sigh
Tim
> > > The current figure is below the historical average.
> > > However it was also below the historical average in
> ...
"Crowley" wrote
> ... but I'm hardly surprised to hear repos were low
> in 1984 wasn't the economy starting to boom again ...
So - repos have been low in 1984 (at the start of a boom), in 1989 (at the
start of a slump) and in 2005 (now).
What does that tell us about house prices from here -- ah yes, it says that
they might go up or they might go down. Wow, what insight!!
Crowley
Tim wrote:
> > > "Crowley" wrote
> > > > The current figure is below the historical average.
> > > > However it was also below the historical average in
> > > > 1989 (the start of the last house price crash) ...
> > ...
> "Crowley" wrote
> > ... but I'm hardly surprised to hear repos were low
> > in 1984 wasn't the economy starting to boom again ...
>
> So - repos have been low in 1984 (at the start of a boom), in 1989 (at the
> start of a slump) and in 2005 (now).
1984...end of a recession/start of a boom
2005...end of a boom/start of a slowdown/recession
Spot the difference ?
> What does that tell us about house prices from here -- ah yes, it says that
> they might go up or they might go down. Wow, what insight!!
Sigh
Repo figures are just one indicator amongst many, most of the others
have been mentioned on this thread and point to a housing market at the
top of the cycle.
BTW if you really think house prices "might go up" then I suspect you
are in a minority of one. Even the Nationwide one of the biggest VI's
in the business in a report out last week predicted house prices would
fall next year.
Still. What do they know ?
M Holmes
> The fact that 2000 was 'more recent' is irrevelant in terms of
> economic cycles. IMO with regard to the housing market 1989 and 2005
> are similiar in that they were/are both top or near the top of the
> house market cycle. 2000 was totally different as it was barely
> half-way through the up cycle.
> You do realise the cyclical nature of the economy I assume ?
It seems to me that we're at the peak of a two-generational credit cycle
(previous peak 1929) and that 1989 was the primary recession of the
K-cycle and we're now headed into the secondary (deflationary)
recession. It could be that housing cycles have coincided with the two
K-peaks this time around but I suspect that this cycle will be driven by
lack of availability of credit rather than normal swings in house
prices.
I'd be interested in arguments that this is merely a house price cycle
rather than a longer K-cycle.
FoFP
--
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four [Kipling]
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
M Holmes
> get hold of the number for the number of mortgages existing at this
> time...then work out what proportion of households are involved even
> with this dance...
That will change in this cycle because unsexured lenders have learned of
the advantages of attaching delinquent loans to property to gain a
better chance of recovering their cash. Basically they can get orders
such that when a property is sold (and it can't be sold without their
permission if they get an order) then they get their cut after the
mortgage is paid.
That could change things somewhat since it offers the possibility of
loading credit card, car and store loans onto properties.
FoFP
Crowley
M Holmes wrote:
> It seems to me that we're at the peak of a two-generational credit cycle
> (previous peak 1929) and that 1989 was the primary recession of the
> K-cycle and we're now headed into the secondary (deflationary)
> recession. It could be that housing cycles have coincided with the two
> K-peaks this time around but I suspect that this cycle will be driven by
> lack of availability of credit rather than normal swings in house
> prices.
>
> I'd be interested in arguments that this is merely a house price cycle
> rather than a longer K-cycle.
You could be right it certainly looks like a credit crunch may be
round the corner. What do you see as the other possible consequences
for the UK economy and asset markets ?
Crowley
Thats a good point. It looks like the escape routes for bad debtors are
being cut off.
Tumbleweed
news:1133194058....@g47g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
translation = 'no'
--
Tumbleweed
email replies not necessary but to contact use;
tumbleweednews at hotmail dot com
M Holmes
>> I'd be interested in arguments that this is merely a house price cycle
>> rather than a longer K-cycle.
> You could be right it certainly looks like a credit crunch may be
> round the corner. What do you see as the other possible consequences
> for the UK economy and asset markets ?
See some long threads here from years ago. Basically I'd expect a
credit crunch and deflation with the consequences being worked out over
a decade and a half and then a new stocks boom if the government leaves
well alone. Chaos if they don't. More than likely we'll have a housing
market more like the continental model thereafter rather than this manic
trading and people will be leery of taking on debt for at least a
generation. The odds are very high that the Magic Money Token on the
2060's and 2070's bubbles will not be houses.
I'd still call for a 40% drop in real house prices, with whatever amount
of deflation we get in a decade and a half added onto that for the drop
in nominal prices.
FoFP
Andy Pandy
> your stt was as follows...
> "What are you on about? If you take out a mortgage, and refuse to pay the
> interest/loan repayments demanded by the lender, and refuse to negotiate
> with them, they will take possession of the house, sell it, and chase you
> for the rest of the debt if there is any."
>
> your stt was highly naive....
> i have given you enuf data for you to start to work out why your
> comment was naive....
Do you speak English?
> >Do you want me to repeat what I wrote earlier? OK:
> >
> >If you take out a mortgage, and refuse to pay the interest/loan repayments
> >demanded by the lender, and refuse to negotiate with them, they will take
> >possession of the house, sell it, and chase you for the rest of the debt if
> >there is any.
>
> that is a threat...in reality it is not what usually happens....
> you cannot extract blood out of a stone....
> most such supposed debts are written off....
A lender is not usually going to "write off" the debt if the debt is secured on
a property that they can sell to get their money.
> those who don't pay up do not normally end up under hedges..
> they live in other houses/accomodation....
And?
> >My point is that your statement:
> >
> >"no use lenders 'demanding' repayments if the borrower
> > cannot (or will not) pay."
> >
> >is complete bullshit. Try telling that to the 4,640 people whose homes *were*
> >repossessed in the first half of this year.
>
> i note you have not made any effort to work out what a tiny proportion
> of all mortgages that represents....
Only a tiny percentage of borrowers default on their mortgage and then refuse to
negotiate with the lender, moron.
That's why the percentage of repossessions is low.
> go peddle your victim psychology where it will be appreciated...
>
> i do not suffer fools gladly....i do not waste time on arrogance
> or on the culpably lazy-minded....
>
> go pose elsewhere or make some effort to learn....
> or you will get ignored...
Good. I'm not wasting any more time on a clueless idiot like you. Bye bye.
*plonk*
--
Andy
abelard
<fo...@holyrood.ed.ac.uk>
typed:
>In uk.finance abelard <abel...@abelard.org> wrote:
>
>> get hold of the number for the number of mortgages existing at this
>> time...then work out what proportion of households are involved even
>> with this dance...
>
>That will change in this cycle because unsexured lenders have learned of
>the advantages of attaching delinquent loans to property to gain a
>better chance of recovering their cash. Basically they can get orders
>such that when a property is sold (and it can't be sold without their
>permission if they get an order) then they get their cut after the
>mortgage is paid.
who can? your referents are muddled....
>That could change things somewhat since it offers the possibility of
>loading credit card, car and store loans onto properties.
very possibly...
but lenders cannot make profit without lending money...
manufacturers cannot sell larger ticket items for cash to the
relatively poor...
nor, currently, will the government tolerate crowded park benches...
there are various pressures which determine the behaviour of
the participating actors
regards..
abelard
<fo...@holyrood.ed.ac.uk>
typed:
>In uk.finance Crowley <crowley...@yahoo.co.uk> wrote:
>
>> The fact that 2000 was 'more recent' is irrevelant in terms of
>> economic cycles. IMO with regard to the housing market 1989 and 2005
>> are similiar in that they were/are both top or near the top of the
>> house market cycle. 2000 was totally different as it was barely
>> half-way through the up cycle.
>
>> You do realise the cyclical nature of the economy I assume ?
>
>It seems to me that we're at the peak of a two-generational credit cycle
>(previous peak 1929) and that 1989 was the primary recession of the
>K-cycle and we're now headed into the secondary (deflationary)
>recession. It could be that housing cycles have coincided with the two
>K-peaks this time around but I suspect that this cycle will be driven by
>lack of availability of credit rather than normal swings in house
>prices.
>
>I'd be interested in arguments that this is merely a house price cycle
>rather than a longer K-cycle.
that was in a context of mainly hard currencies...
it was in the context of a vastly less complex economy....
it was in the context of a vastly less wealthy planet ('west')
why on earth do you imagine the market behaviours are to be 'repeated'?
what is the use of repeating thoughtlessly 'the economy is cyclical'
where is the sound evidence for that claim when real wealth has
been climbing for decades?
i don't think you are coming close to making any sort of case....
and others (eg creepy and andypandy) attempting, have much less ability
than yourself and are completely incapable of following the
complexities....
i take the view that real current inflation in the uk is ~10%...that
housing has approximately doubled in real terms since ww2 (imv because
people are trying to use it as a hedge against gov't theft (inflation)
i don't think you can make a serious case that the housing market has
topped out...(it may have....but imv you have no idea)
regards...
john boyle
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid> writes
>Only a tiny percentage of borrowers default on their mortgage and then
>refuse to
>negotiate with the lender, moron.
>
>That's why the percentage of repossessions is low.
On average, since 1996, 11.6% of the number in arrears where
repossessed. If we look at those who are six months or more in arrears
then the figure is 26%. This figure is somewhat misleading though
because the stats are for whole years and do not relate a mortgage that
is in arrears in one year that is repossessed in another.
--
John Boyle
john boyle
<m...@home.uk> writes
>> > Andy Pandy wrote
>> > >Repossessions of homes by mortgage lenders
>> > >this year alone is likely to reach 10,000.
>> >
>> john boyle wrote:
>> > Which will be the third lowest since 1984 and as a percentage
>> > of all mortgages outstanding is the third lowest since 1981.
>>
>"Crowley" wrote
>> You are right. The current figure is below the historical average.
>> However it was also below the historical average in
>> 1989 (the start of the last house price crash) but over
>> the following 3/4 years repos rocketed to record levels.
>
>John's quote above suggests that it was also "below the historical average"
>in 1984.
I make no such suggestion. In fact in 1984 it was the largest since 1969
(when the stats I have seen started).
>Just look what happened in the following 5 years as house prices rocketed
>upwards!
In 1984 the percentage of all mortgages that were repossessed was
0.17%. Over the next five years it was 0.25%, 0.3%, 0.32%, 0.22%, 0.17%.
>
>You are just "cherry-picking" your historical quotes to suit your
>point-of-view. Shame on you!
Not me! If you had said the next 10 years then you would have got a
different answer!
--
John Boyle
john boyle
Crowley <crowley...@yahoo.co.uk> writes
>
>Tim wrote:
>> > > Andy Pandy wrote
>> > > >Repossessions of homes by mortgage lenders
>> > > >this year alone is likely to reach 10,000.
>> > >
>> > john boyle wrote:
>> > > Which will be the third lowest since 1984 and as a percentage
>> > > of all mortgages outstanding is the third lowest since 1981.
>> >
>> "Crowley" wrote
>> > You are right. The current figure is below the historical average.
>> > However it was also below the historical average in
>> > 1989 (the start of the last house price crash) but over
>> > the following 3/4 years repos rocketed to record levels.
>>
>> John's quote above suggests that it was also "below the historical average"
>> in 1984.
>> Just look what happened in the following 5 years as house prices rocketed
>> upwards!
>>
>> You are just "cherry-picking" your historical quotes to suit your
>> point-of-view. Shame on you!
>
>I've yet to meet anybody who doesn't indulge in a bit of
>'cherry-picking' to back up their POV now and again ;-) but I'm hardly
>surprised to hear repos were low in 1984
In fact it was an all time high!
> wasn't the economy starting to
>boom again after a pretty severe recession particularly in
>manufacturing in 81/82 ?
>
>It all ended in tears in 89/90.
>
Yes, the peak was 1991 (which would be the year the defaulters of 89/90
were repossessed.
--
John Boyle
Andy Pandy
"john boyle" <jo...@johnboyle1.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:kQMEHfDt...@johnboyle1.demon.co.uk...
> >Only a tiny percentage of borrowers default on their mortgage and then
> >refuse to
> >negotiate with the lender, moron.
> >
> >That's why the percentage of repossessions is low.
>
> On average, since 1996, 11.6% of the number in arrears where
> repossessed. If we look at those who are six months or more in arrears
> then the figure is 26%. This figure is somewhat misleading though
> because the stats are for whole years and do not relate a mortgage that
> is in arrears in one year that is repossessed in another.
My point was not so much about people who get into arrears, as I guess most will
negotiate with the lender and work something out. Someone perhaps may lose their
job and agree with the lender that they'll not pay/pay a lower amount for a
while and roll up the mortgage until they get a new job. Or agree to wait the 9
months for ISMI to kick in.
My point was that someone who refuses to pay the mortgage payments demanded and
then refuses to negotiate with the lender, ie simply says "I'm not paying", will
usually get their house repossessed. Would you agree?
--
Andy
john boyle
<spam8...@wonderful.spam.invalid> writes
>
>"john boyle" <jo...@johnboyle1.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
>news:kQMEHfDt...@johnboyle1.demon.co.uk...
>> >Only a tiny percentage of borrowers default on their mortgage and then
>> >refuse to
>> >negotiate with the lender, moron.
>> >
>> >That's why the percentage of repossessions is low.
>>
>> On average, since 1996, 11.6% of the number in arrears where
>> repossessed. If we look at those who are six months or more in arrears
>> then the figure is 26%. This figure is somewhat misleading though
>> because the stats are for whole years and do not relate a mortgage that
>> is in arrears in one year that is repossessed in another.
>
>My point was not so much about people who get into arrears, as I guess
>most will
>negotiate with the lender and work something out. Someone perhaps may
>lose their
>job and agree with the lender that they'll not pay/pay a lower amount for a
>while and roll up the mortgage until they get a new job. Or agree to wait the 9
>months for ISMI to kick in.
I wasnt taking sides either way, I was merely showing the actual number
of defaulters who lose their homes.
>
>My point was that someone who refuses to pay the mortgage payments demanded and
>then refuses to negotiate with the lender, ie simply says "I'm not
>paying", will
>usually get their house repossessed. Would you agree?
Yes.
--
John Boyle
Richard Faulkner
<fo...@holyrood.ed.ac.uk> writes
>'d be interested in arguments that this is merely a house price cycle
>rather than a longer K-cycle.
Dont hold your breath <g>
--
Richard Faulkner
Tim
> > So - repos have been low in 1984 (at the start of a boom),
> > in 1989 (at the start of a slump) and in 2005 (now).
>
> 1984...end of a recession/start of a boom
> 2005...end of a boom/start of a slowdown/recession
>
> Spot the difference ?
Yes. But how did **low repos** at the time, indicate which way it was going
to go?
> "Tim" wrote:
> > What does that tell us about house prices from here -- ah yes, it says
> > that they might go up or they might go down. Wow, what insight!!
>
"Crowley" wrote
> Repo figures are just one indicator amongst many...
No they are not! From past experience (see above), they are *not* an
indicator of future house prices...
As house prices have previously gone either way when repos were low, then
the fact that repos are low now does not indicate which way house prices
will go!